Why isn’t the BTC price moving despite billions in ETF inflows?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have just notched their 19th day of inflows. Traders explain why it hasn’t led to a surge in the price of Bitcoin.
Despite a record 19-day streak of inflows into United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), many are wondering why the price of Bitcoin has not surpassed its all-time high of $73,679 set in March. Analysts believe they have the answer.
As of June 6, spot Bitcoin ETFs worldwide held around 1.3 million Bitcoin, or 5.2% of the BTC circulating supply, with a significant portion held by U.S. listed ETFs, according to HODL15Capital.
However, analysts point to various factors affecting the price, indicating that ETFs alone aren’t sufficient to drive a new peak.
“ETF flows are fantastic, but they are not strong enough to exceed the entire ecosystem selling (yet),” said Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards to Cointelegraph.
“You do realize the market is made up of spot, futures, ETFs, and options, right? Price at any point in time is a product of all of these, not just one of them,” crypto trader Christopher Inks wrote in a June 7 X post.
“ETFs are important, but the price of BTC is more heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events,” explained Radar Bear, co-founder of a cryptocurrency exchange, to Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin ETFs may need to expand into more markets
According to data from Farside, Bitcoin ETF net inflows on June 6 totaled $217.7 million.
Since their launch, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $15.5 billion in inflows. However, some traders believe this amount is still too small to significantly impact prices until ETFs are available in other major markets.
“There are still no spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.K. or Japan, two major markets. There is lots of room to grow,” Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin’s price has increased by 12.57% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, Bitcoin surged nearly 53%, reaching an all-time high of $73,679 by March 13.
However, in the nearly three months since then, it has failed to rally further, trading mainly within the range of its high and the $60,000 support level.
Long-term holder movement is a significant factor
Edwards indicated that for another significant price surge to occur, confirmation of one of three major factors is needed:
“Higher average ETF buying, lessened long-term holder selling, growth in U.S. or global liquidity,” he explained.
Edwards emphasized that selling by long-term holders is a significant factor, noting that those who have held Bitcoin for more than two years have been selling more frequently in 2024.
This group’s share of the total Bitcoin supply has dropped slightly to 54% over the past six months, which, according to Edwards, has a much bigger impact on Bitcoin than it might seem.
“While 3% doesn’t sound like much, that is equivalent to about 630,000 Bitcoin, or about 3x the total amount purchased by all of the Bitcoin ETFs in the United States,” he explained.
He further noted that the Bitcoin halving effects haven’t kicked in yet:
“We likely haven’t seen the impacts of the Halving, with the daily Bitcoin issuance dropping by 50% in March. We will likely see the delta between ETF consumption and Bitcoin mined widen substantially over the next 12 months.”
