How California will determine whether Sanders challenges Clinton at the convention — or steps aside after the last ballot is cast
LOS ANGELES — California, here we come.
Nineteen days to go. A total of 475 pledged delegates at stake. And the potential to propel Bernie Sanders into the Democratic convention in Philadelphia with enough momentum to unravel Hillary Clinton’s claim to the nomination.
Or so Sanders thinks.
As the New York Times reported Thursday, Sanders “has been buoyed” by “his belief that an upset victory in California could have a psychological impact on convention delegates who already have doubts about Mrs. Clinton.” As a result, “he is willing to do some harm to Mrs. Clinton in the shorter term if it means he can capture a majority of the 475 pledged delegates at stake in California and arrive at the Philadelphia convention with maximum political power.”
For months, Team Bernie has talked up the Vermont senator’s chances in the Golden State. Now, finally, those predictions will be put to the test.
The Democratic primary season is coming to a close. Forty-eight states and territories have already voted. Only nine remain. Of those, four (New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Washington, D.C., and the Virgin Islands) seem to be leaning toward Clinton, while three (Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota) seem likely to side with Sanders. New Mexico is anyone’s guess at this point, but with a mere 34 pledged delegates to dole out, it’s too dinky to reshape the race.
California is the last state on the calendar with (a) an uncertain outcome and (b) a sizable stockpile of delegates — more, in fact, than all the other remaining primaries and caucuses combined. This explains why Bernie spent Tuesday rallying in Carson and Wednesday campaigning in San Jose and Vallejo. It explains why he just added two more stops to his schedule: one Saturday in National City and another Sunday in Vista. It explains why, starting this weekend, Bill Clinton will be camping out in the state for three straight days, and why Hillary will be returning next Tuesday and Wednesday. It also explains why Sanders is currently pestering Clinton to keep her promise and debate him one last time, somewhere in California .
And yet it’s worth asking: What if all this hubbub is for naught? Does Sanders have a real shot at catching Clinton in California? And even if he does, would a Golden State upset really change what happens at the convention this summer?
So far, the polling firmly favors Clinton. On average, she leads by nearly 10 percentage points; her overall support hovers above the 50 percent mark (again, on average). The poll with the largest sample size, by CBS News/YouGov, shows Clinton ahead by 12 points; the most recent poll, by KABC/SurveyUSA, has her up by 19. Not a single survey has shown Sanders in the lead; only one, by FOX News, has found a gap between the two candidates smaller than its margin of error. Based on these results, the data journalism site FiveThirtyEight currently gives Clinton a 93 percent chance of winning on June 7 .
Still, the polls can be wrong — just ask Michigan — and Sanders has a few factors going for him. First of all, the available surveys aren’t quite up to date. In fact, the most recent one concluded on April 30; since then, Clinton has been forced to fight a challenging two-front war against both Sanders and Trump, and her standing may have suffered as result.
The Sanders camp also points to the latest California voter-registration data as evidence that Bernie could come from behind in the Golden State. Between Jan. 1 and May 1 of this year, the Democratic rolls have swelled by 218 percent compared to the same period in 2012 — far more than the Republican ranks (78 percent), and with a particularly pronounced increase among voters under 30, who tend to support Sanders. Latino registration has also increased by 123 percent this year, which might benefit Sanders as well. (Pollsters often undersample new voters.)
“The people of California, they are registering to vote in record numbers,” Jeff Weaver, Sanders’ campaign manager, recently said. “If this is any indication of voter excitement and turnout, Bernie has a strong chance of winning in California.”
Of course, that’s a big if; major challenges remain. Earlier this month, Michael Ceraso, Sanders’ California state director, quit the organization because he wanted the campaign to invest in grassroots and digital organizing instead of pricey TV ads, and Sanders & Co. still haven’t figured out how best to spend their money in California .
Meanwhile, Sanders’ fundraising flow is tapering off just when he needs it most — for the most expensive primary in the nation. As the Los Angeles Times recently reported, “A standard statewide media buy in California, one that is more modest than what the [Sanders] campaign has purchased elsewhere, would cost some $4.5 million per week for airtime alone — money Sanders just does not have at the moment.” As Sanders lays off dozens of staffers in states that have already voted, Clinton has begun staffing up in preparation for the fall. And California’s political establishment has largely lined up behind Clinton; her team here includes some of the state’s most seasoned operatives.
Finally, while the primary is open to independents — another Sanders stronghold — participating as a non-Democrat is more complicated in California than it is elsewhere.
“Independents actually need to request additional documents to vote in the Democratic primary,” explains Dan Schnur, a former spokesman for Republicans Pete Wilson and John McCain who currently runs the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California. “It’s a confusing system that could prove to be Sanders’ biggest obstacle.”
Yet with nearly three weeks to go before the big day — an eternity in primary politics — most observers agree that anything could happen in California. Even Clinton aides admit that a loss is possible .
The bigger question is how the California results will affect Sanders’ standing and strategy heading into Philadelphia. The senator has repeatedly vowed to continue campaigning all the way to the convention, despite the fact that he has no plausible path to the nomination.
“We are in this until the last ballot is counted,” Sanders said to supporters in California on Tuesday night, celebrating his win in the Oregon primary. “And then we’re going to take that fight to Philadelphia.”
Schnur, for one, thinks that a victory in the Golden State would ensure that Sanders keeps his promise.
“Even though Clinton is ahead in the polls here, Sanders can certainly win the California primary,” Schnur tells Unconventional. “That, in turn, would send him into the convention with a huge amount of momentum — enough to give him the leverage to cause Clinton all sorts of problems on the platform, the rules, etc.”
And as for a loss? It could prove to be equally decisive, sapping Sanders of the juice he needs to keep his campaign alive until the start of the convention 48 days later.
At least one Sanders staffer seemed to acknowledge as much earlier this week.
“We have to put the blinders on and focus on the best case to make in the upcoming states,” Sanders’ chief strategist, Tad Devine, told the New York Times. “If we do that, we can be in a strong position to make the best closing argument before the convention. If not, everyone will know in mid-June, and we’ll have to take a hard look at where things stand.”
By putting all his chips on California, Bernie is making a big, bold bet. But if it doesn’t come through, he may have to get out of the game.
Want to read more about the 2016 elections? Get full coverage from the Yahoo Politics team.
