Trump was considering four types of running mates. Why he plans to go with Mike Pence.
By Andew Romano and Jon Ward
[Note: After this column was published, news broke that Donald Trump plans to select Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate. The item that follows explains why Trump has reportedly chosen Pence — and not the other candidates he was considering.]
CLEVELAND — With Donald Trump set to unveil his running mate Friday in Manhattan, the veepstakes has now entered its final, most feverish stage — and the speculation is particularly frenzied here, where the GOP is beginning to gather in advance of next week’s convention. Everyone is asking the same question: “Who will Trump pick?”
But let’s simplify matters for a second.
At various times Trump has said various things about what’s he’s looking for in a sidekick. First it was someone who can help him “with legislation” and “getting things through” Washington — an established politician who has “been vetted over the last 20 years.” Then Trump was considering the idea of “a non-politician” who would “broadly symbolize” his unorthodox brand but not necessarily “satisfy Republican insiders,” according to “people familiar with the vetting process.” And most recently Trump has been telling reporters that he wants a “fighter skilled in hand-to-hand combat.”
What seems clear from this muddle of contradictory clues is that Trump cares less about who his VP is than what he represents. The box he checks. The mold he fits. The purpose he serves.
“It all depends on what Donald Trump really sees as the perfect job description [for] his vice-presidential running mate,” Trump senior adviser Kellyanne Conway tells Yahoo News.
In that sense, Trump’s four reported finalists all play to type. The question now is which type Trump thinks will benefit him the most. We spoke to a handful of top Republicans on the ground in Cleveland to get an insider’s sense of the case for — and against — each:
The Conservative: Mike Pence
The Indiana governor is a devout evangelical who is fluent in the language of movement conservatism and always thinks before he speaks; he is so disciplined, in fact, that he has been known to pause mid-conversation to better formulate his next sound bite. It’s a skill he perfected as the host of his own conservative radio and TV talk shows in early 1990s Indiana. After that, Pence spent 12 years on Capitol Hill as a congressman; he still has friends and fans in the House. He is a prodigious fundraiser, with decades-old connections to GOP donors. And Pence has proven his conservative bona fides while in office by pushing measures to slash taxes and limit the social impact of the LGBT community.
Trump will pick him if … he decides that the biggest threat to his candidacy is apathy or antagonism among right-wing Republicans. More than anyone else on Trump’s shortlist, Pence would give conservatives a figure to rally around this fall and ensure that a divided GOP leaves Cleveland as pumped up as possible. He is a conventional, low-risk conservative choice — the only one, in fact, who seems to want the job.
Republican attorney Ben Ginsberg tells Yahoo News that Pence represents an “insurance policy” whose selection might signal concern on the part of Trump’s campaign about a delegate revolt at the convention.
“The base is the challenge right now,” says Saul Anuzis, a delegate from Michigan. “A lot of conservatives have raised concerns about where Trump is coming from. Obviously he’s a populist and doesn’t have a philosophical grounding.” Choosing Pence, Anuzis adds, would “go a long way toward uniting the party.”
Trump won’t pick him if… he decides that the mild-mannered governor is temperamentally too conservative for his ticket — Pence refuses to engage in negative campaigning, for example, having written more than two decades ago that “a campaign ought to demonstrate the basic human decency of the candidate” — or if the two, who only recently became acquainted, simply lack the requisite chemistry.
The Insider: Newt Gingrich
Among Trump’s remaining VP contenders, the former House Speaker and self-styled Republican intellectual has by far the deepest knowledge of Congress’s inner workings — and the most experience combatting the Clinton machine. Gingrich was also quick to recognize the potency of Trump’s message, declaring in August 2015 that Trump “ is not like anyone else we’ve seen in politics” before adding, in December, that a President Trump would be a “ big asset” for Republicans in Congress because he would “shatter traditional patterns.” Subsequent reports revealed that Gingrich had been quietly serving as an unofficial Trump adviser and conducting outreach to reluctant Washington Republicans on Trump’s behalf for some time.
Trump will pick him if… he decides that what he really needs is a No. 2 who can help him channel his outside-the-box ideology into sweeping legislative proposals and then shepherd them through Congress. Gingrich would add some depth and anti-Clinton expertise to Trump’s campaign, but his real strength would be as President Trump’s governing guru. This is the argument that Trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, have reportedly been making inside Trump World.
“Most people assume [Gingrich] does understand Washington and could get things through Congress,” says Steve Munisteri, a former state chairman of the Texas GOP.
Trump won’t pick him if… he’s worried that he won’t make it to the White House and turns instead to a running mate who can help get him there. Gingrich wouldn’t augment Trump’s current coalition in any factional or geographical way; in fact, he could further damage Trump’s standing among women, having reportedly negotiated a divorce with his first wife while she was in the hospital and asked his second wife to share him with his mistress. Plus — as Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort has been warning in private — Newt would struggle to stay on message; he’s already condescendingly criticized Trump’s missteps and waffled on whether he even wants the job.
As one influential Republican put it in Cleveland: Gingrich is “too high-risk,” even for Trump.
The Mini-Me: Chris Christie
The brash New Jersey governor suspended his own presidential bid after finishing sixth in make-or-break New Hampshire earlier this year — then shocked the political world by forsaking fellow establishment types like Marco Rubio and John Kasich and endorsing Trump instead. Since then, Christie has become a close adviser — andloyal defender — of the presumptive Republican nominee.
In retrospect, Christie’s 180 shouldn’t have been so surprising. Trump and Christie have known each other for a long time. They first met over dinner at Jean-Georges 14 years ago, when Christie was U.S. attorney for New Jersey and Trump was developing casinos in Atlantic City. Christie attended Trump’s third wedding. Trump attended Christie’s first inauguration. Like Trump, Christie sees himself as a straight shooter. And like Trump, he isn’t a traditional conservative.
Trump will pick him if… he decides to pull a Bill Clinton (see: Gore, Al) and double-down on his brand with a VP who is just as aggressive, unconventional, and New-York-Metro-Area as he is. For Trump — who is said to value loyalty above all else — comfort could be key here. And though Christie doesn’t offer geographical diversity, Washington experience, or swing-state electoral votes, he could be an asset in the general election — both as an attack dog and as a messenger able to sway blue-state voters.
On Wednesday, longtime Christie confidant Bill Palatucci was touting Christie’s value as a running mate to reporters at an RNC meeting in Cleveland.
“The governor is a great conservative leader with an accomplished record,” Palatucci said. “I’d love to see him picked.”
Palatucci also took a subtle shot at Pence, who has openly campaigned for the job in recent days.
“I don’t think you position yourself to be considered as a vice president,” Palatucci said. “You either have those qualifications or you have the relationship with the candidate. And in Chris Christie’s situation, he has both. … Donald Trump knows Christie’s accomplishments and abilities himself, personally and directly.”
Trump won’t pick him if… the risk of alienating conservatives outweighs the benefits of connecting with non-conservatives, or if Trump decides that one attack dog is enough.
Trump “is not exactly shy himself,” says Munisteri; adding Christie to the ticket could be redundant. And the Garden State governor “wouldn’t help as much with the conservatives who are concerned” about Trump, says Anuzis.
Also worth noting: Christie has a lot of baggage. Trump is set to testify in the Trump University fraud suit in November; two months earlier, a pair of former Christie lieutenants are scheduled to stand trial for their role in his administration’s Bridgegate scandal. Ultimately, two major corruption cases in the middle of a general election campaign may prove to be one too many — even for Donald Trump.
Not to mention the fact that Christie put Trump’s son-in-law’s father in jail.
The Wild Card: Michael Flynn
On Friday, the New York Post reported that Flynn — a registered Democrat but fierce critic of President Obama after being forced out of his role as head of the Defense Intelligence Agency in 2014 — had submitted to a formal vetting by the Trump campaign; he previously served as an informal policy adviser to the candidate.
“All I would say is that I have been honored to serve my country for the past three decades and look forward to serving in other ways now that I am retired from the U.S. Army,” Flynn responded. “I’ve been a soldier too long to refuse to entertain any request from a potential commander in chief.”
Trump will pick him if… he decides that he is “slightly bored by the prospect of going with a traditional Republican” and is tempted by the “surprise and star power” of a Trump-Flynn ticket.
Trump won’t pick him if… Trump probably won’t pick Flynn. On Sunday, the general told ABC that, when it comes to abortion, “I think women have to be able to choose.” Selecting a pro-choice Democrat — or a least a Democrat who voices pro-choice views and then reverses course and claims to be “pro-life” the next day, as Flynn did Monday — would likely spark a conservative revolt in Cleveland and hurt Trump more than it would help him.
