Later this week UK voters will take part in what promises to be the most dramatic election since 1997, when Labour ousted the Conservatives in a landslide victory.
A recent poll by survey tool OPPi of 1,004 working adults showed that, while Labour enjoys a significant lead, a quarter of poll respondents had yet to make up their minds.
With Labour on 35.26 per cent and the Conservatives on 17.29 per cent, the ‘undecided’ vote could still have a massive influence on the result. Meanwhile the right wing Reform UK party (formerly the Brexit Party), with an impressive 9 per cent support, is eating away at the Conservative vote in many important constituencies.
After 14 years of Conservative rule, there is a widespread desire for change. Yet as the results of the OPPi poll demonstrate, what people want to change is diverse. The big question is: will the election propel Sir Kier Starmer into power with a ‘supermajority’ of 300 or 400 seats, crushing the Conservative Party for years to come, or will we end up with a more balanced parliament?
In this article, we analyse the poll results to predict how this fascinating and historic election will pan out, focusing on voters’ most pressing issues.
Cost of Living Crisis: A Long Term Problem
There is little optimism that the cost of living crisis will be solved in the near future. The 2008 financial crisis caused years of economic pain. The 2016 Brexit vote affected investment and growth, as companies were unable to plan for the future. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine depressed an already vulnerable economy.
The failure of Brexit to deliver the ambitious economic rewards that the Conservative government promised underlies much of the electorate’s anger at their party. Remainers are annoyed by the loss of freedom to travel and export goods to the EU, while Leavers blame the Tories for higher immigration numbers, an NHS in crisis and a stagnant economy.
This is likely to cost the Conservatives many of the ‘Red Wall’ seats in the Midlands and North of England which it won in 2019, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson convinced them that Brexit was the solution to their problems.
In the OPPi poll, a significant number of Labour voters believe that the election will resolve the cost of living crisis, with 22.77 per cent agreeing, compared with fewer than 10 per cent of Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Reform UK voters. This result demonstrates voter bias: if you think your party is going to win, you’ll believe that it can effect change.
The cost of living is the number one issue affecting how people will vote. They are dismayed by the state of British towns and cities: roads and parks are poorly maintained, libraries and public buildings have closed and the number of people using charitable food banks has risen from 61,000 to 2.9 million since 2010.
To address this sharp rise in poverty, a new government may have to raise taxes. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives are prepared to admit this (despite Rishi Sunak’s repeated attacks on Labour, insisting that the party will raise taxes), explaining why so few people think that the situation will change. Nevertheless, as the OPPi survey showed, a relatively large number of voters from each party believe that tax changes are on their way.
National Priority: Healthcare
Ever since the foundation of the National Health Service (NHS) in 1948, British people have argued about it. They complain that it is getting worse, that waiting times are longer, that there are too few doctors and nurses and that a Conservative-led government will erode its principal of offering free treatment at the point of need.
There are good reasons for concern. Whereas only 6 per cent of patients visiting Accident and Emergency departments had to wait more than four hours in 2011, that figure is now above 40 per cent. Around 7.6 million people are currently on waiting lists for NHS treatment, compared with 2.6 million at the time of the 2010 election.
Underlying these figures are demographic and social trends: the UK has an ageing population with more healthcare needs; the pandemic dramatically increased demands on the NHS; the cost of new medical treatments has risen sharply; and Brexit meant that many healthcare workers returned to EU countries.
Concern for the NHS divides fairly evenly between parties, although the Reform Party supports tax relief for private healthcare, arguing that this could help fund the NHS, since fewer people would use its services.
By contrast, there is a stark difference in expectations for change between UK age groups: those aged 18–24 are relatively optimistic that an incoming government will bring changes to healthcare provision (47.7 per cent), whereas those over 65 have very low hopes of change (11.25 per cent). This matches with people’s lived experience: the older you are, the longer you have experienced the gradual decline of the UK’s national health system.
What’s alarming is the general unfitness of the British population. More than 27 per cent of UK men are obese, compared with just 10 per cent of French men. There are 4.2 million British people of working age claiming health-related benefits. And there is an epidemic of mental health problems, affecting millions of UK citizens, young and old.
Changing this dynamic will take years and require new approaches — such as prioritising preventative measures like exercise and diet — and heavy funding. The national mourning in June this year for the premature death of the health guru Dr Michael Mosley showed that Britons are eager to embrace new ideas to get fit.
A Battleground of Ideas in Education
The fragile mental health of many younger British people since the pandemic has profoundly impacted their education. Whereas in the 2018–19 academic year there were 60,000 pupils classed as ‘severely’ absent (missing 50 per cent or more of their lessons), in 2022–2023 that number rose to 150,000. More than a quarter of secondary school children are ‘persistently’ absent (missing 10 per cent of their lessons).
This adds up to a crisis in national education, as a generation of children risk failing to gain the skills and qualifications they need. There is a parallel crisis in teacher recruitment and retention, along with the poor condition of state schools’ buildings.
An incoming Labour government would seek to address these issues, imposing Value Added Tax (VAT) on private school fees. This contentious measure could price out thousands of families, whose children would then enter the state school system and increase pressure on its resources, while raising relatively little tax income.
Taxing private education is viewed as a class-based and politically-loaded: it penalises middle class families who typically vote Conservative. Reform UK promises to grant tax relief on private education fees — the exact reverse of the Labour policy.
The OPPi poll found that Labour voters are most optimistic about significant changes in education, followed by Liberal Democrat voters (who traditionally champion state education). Just 18 per cent of Conservative-voting respondents expected significant change.
They might be cheered by Rishi Sunak’s promise to bring back National Service, with funding for both military and civilian training and work opportunities. Yet since the Conservatives are widely expected to lose the election, there is little faith that this will ever happen.
The Affordability Gap: Housing in Modern Britain
Such is the depth of the UK’s housing crisis that even Rishi Sunak had to admit, in a June 2024 interview: “It has got harder” to buy your own home since the Conservative took power in 2010. Whereas average earnings have doubled since the millennium, house prices have risen by four-and-a-half times, putting home ownership out of reach for millions. Rents have also soared, causing overcrowding and increasing levels of poverty.
Under successive Conservative-led governments since 2010, housebuilding targets have been missed, as attempts by local authorities to build new homes have been stifled by ‘NIMBY’ (‘Not In My Back Yard’) protests from voters, while state funding for homebuilding programmes has failed to tackle the backlog.
An incoming Labour government promises to free up land, including brownfield, green belt and ‘grey belt’ (poor quality land), by reforming the planning process. The party aims to build 1.5 million new homes in the next five years, including “the biggest increase in affordable housing in a generation,” said Deputy Leader Angela Rayner.
Labour and Liberal Democrat voters in the OPPi survey appear confident that this change is on its way, whereas voters for other parties are less convinced. This allies with the make-up of the respective parties: Labour voters are more likely to need affordable housing, while Conservative voters resist new housing developments and hope they won’t happen, especially if they threaten to depress their own home’s value.
Immigration: the Hot Button Topic
Since the last election in 2019 was fought on the issue of Brexit, with immigration as a major factor and ‘securing borders’ as a slogan, the Conservative Party has campaigned in 2024 along similar lines, promising to fly illegal immigrants to Rwanda.
Thanks to legal challenges, this never happened, leaving the Conservatives frustrated, while Labour promised to cancel the policy and concentrate on stemming illegal immigration at source. Labour leader Sir Kier Starmer also promised to cap immigration levels, recognising national concern over net immigration levels: 685,000 in 2023, a historic high.
In the place of hostile rhetoric, Labour is likely to take a more nuanced approach, spelling out the advantages of attracting young, hard-working immigrants who can fill positions in healthcare, agriculture and retail, as Britain faces a demographic timebomb of an ageing, unhealthy population. As the survey shows, Labour and (particularly) Liberal Democrat voters recognise the prospect of change, whereas Conservative voters are less convinced. Reform UK voters fear that Labour will allow too many immigrants to enter Britain.
Looking Ahead
An overriding conclusion from the OPPi poll was that Labour voters are confident that their party will win power on 4 July. As a result, they believe that change will ensue, whether in improvements to the cost of living, to healthcare or housing. They recognise that after 14 years of Conservative rule, it is time for new ideas and new approaches.
The lower expectations of other parties’ supporters reflect their pessimism over the likely result. They do not believe their party can effect meaningful change.
Meanwhile, as the date approaches, the 25 per cent of voters who are yet to make up their minds will be studying these issues with interest. They may conclude that Rishi Sunak is correct, and they stand to lose out financially from a heavy-taxing Labour government. They may respond to the alarm calls of Reform UK, which warns of a flood of new migrants under Labour, or the environmental warnings of the Green Party over climate change.
It promises to be a night full of surprises which will — in multiple ways — change the United Kingdom for many years to come.
This poll was run by OPPi, a participatory survey tool with headquarters in the UK. and co-sponsored by Pureprofile, a data & insights company. Through the use of crowdsourcing, OPPi hopes to discover common ground and achieve consensus. Our innovative way of collecting and analysing public opinion gives us useful insights for stakeholders to understand what citizens think and what leaders should do. Visit www.oppi.live to learn more about OPPi.
