Will the World be Better or Worse by 2030?
One of the distinctive traits of humans is our ability to mentally project ourselves into the future. It’s natural that we try to imagine how life will be in 5, 10, 20 years. But making accurate predictions is a completely different thing, since no matter how advanced our models and analysis are, in the end, anything can happen.
By looking at the three core elements of the 2030 agenda — end all forms of poverty, fight inequalities and tackle climate change — we will explore both sides of possible outcomes.
Poverty
Worse? About 480 million will still remain in extreme poverty. Of these, 87% are expected to live in Sub-Saharan Africa if economic growth follows the trajectory over the recent past, according to the World Bank forecasts. Which means that poverty will become a predominantly African phenomenon, with the gap between this continent and the rest of the world widening.
Better? 175 million people will have been lifted out of poverty. Which also means that the size of the “global middle class” will increase. This emerging middle class can represent enormous gains in the developing world through 2 fronts: economical — by driving consumption and domestic demand, which is a potential engine for growth; and social — as “Middle classes are believed to support democracy and progressive but moderate political platforms.”.
Inequality
Worse? “The world’s richest 1% are on course to control as much as two-thirds of the world’s wealth by 2030.” The world is in a trajectory of rapid economic growth; however, this growth is not inclusive. Which means that the people that are at the bottom of the income distribution will not see their lives improve and will ultimately be left behind.
Better? “Countries in which there is great inequality between rich and poor do not experience more violent conflict than countries with less economic inequality. In contrast, inequalities between groups defined by religion, ethnicity, or regional identities are linked to a significantly higher risk of armed conflict.“ The good news is that despite the rise in income inequality between individuals, identity group-based inequality is decreasing. Which means that we could have less conflict in the world by 2030.
Climate
How well we “score” in this dimension depends on whether we comply with The Paris agreement or not, i.e. if we manage to keep global temperatures to rise a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times.
Worse? If we don’t stay below the 2 degrees target, major consequences can take place. From cities and entire countries becoming inhabitable due to rising sea levels; shortage of water all around the world; pressure in the food system due to all types of extreme weather; to massive migration due to all of the above.
Better? Keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius not only prevents the above mentioned negative impacts, but can also bring positive ones to the population. The need to find environmentally-sound products and services could bring major health benefits as most of them are in line with more “natural” ways of living. This could mean less chemicals in our bodies and environment.
What about you? How do you think the world will be in 2030? We are collecting the voices of young people around the world about topics like these. Share yours in this year’s YouthSpeak Survey.
