Is There Hope For Chicago?
Insights From Nine Years Of Living In The City
It is hopeless for the occasional visitor to try to keep up with Chicago — she outgrows his prophecies faster than he can make them. She is always a novelty; for she is never the Chicago you saw when you passed through the last time.” (Mark Twain)
We had a bright future back then, and now we get this about Chicago from someone who is from Evanston[i]: Whenever I get into my car now, I lock its doors instantly, taking no time to check my cellphone or turn on the radio. At stoplights, I leave a car’s length space between my car and the car in front of me, so that before carjackers attempt to wrestle me out I have room to turn and drive away. A friend has a different solution: buy a gun and shoot any carjackers before they get to him. (Joseph Epstein, WSJ, Jan 9, 2022)
In a highly simplified and not entirely correct story of Chicago, Jean Baptiste Point du Sable began to enlighten the local indigenous population in 1780, and Ken Griffin turned off the lights in 2022 — from rags to riches, to boom and bust:
- The Chicago area used to be a bucolic Native American settlement on the delta of the Chicago River until it was discovered by the French in the 17th century.
- The French lost the territory to the British who then get ousted by the American Revolution.
- The city of Chicago gets incorporated in 1837 with about 4,000 (non-indigenous) people living in it.
- It burns down in 1871 and subsequently becomes the fastest growing city in the United States[ii], supported by its location on the lake (connected to other lakes which account for 80% of the US’s and 20% of the worlds freshwater reserves), a connection to the Mississippi river via the Chicago river, lots of immigration, proximity to vast agricultural resources, mines in nearby states, and a booming country-wide rail network running through it.
- In addition to immigrants, its industry attracts legions of liberated slaves after the Civil War, who find ample jobs and poor housing.
- While most workers live in squalor, capitalist families become extremely rich[iii] and erect a legacy of corporate and residential buildings in and around Chicago.
- The city reaches close to 3.6mn inhabitants in the 1950s when it start its long-term decline, induced by de-industrialization, job losses, poverty and bad government which ruins the city’s finances irreparably (a corrupt crew of officials, largely run by one family).
- Today, we are left with 2.7mninhabitants of whom the very wealthy and the very poor are leaving the city in droves. The current mélange of crime (shootings are our specialty), precarious public finances, high taxes, stagnant real estate prices and probably also the unbearable winter weather just led Ken Griffin (previously our richest citizen and biggest benefactor) to leave town for Miami with the parting words: “Chicago is like Kabul/Afghanistan on a good day”.
How To Define Chicago
There is the city of Chicago and there is the metropolitan statistical area of Chicago (Chicago MSA — roughly equal to “Chicagoland”). The city is surprisingly small, in population and in square miles. About 2.7mn people live here on 237 square miles. While it’s the US’s third largest city (and calls itself the Second City, in blatant ignorance of L.A.’s much higher significance), it pales even in comparison to mid-sized cities around the globe:
- Berlin — 3.6mn people on 344 sq mi
- Madrid — 3.2mn on 233 sq mi
- Rome — 2.8mn on 496 sq mi
Lots of cities that most people may never get to visit surpass Chicago by multiples: Harbin, Yangon, Dhaka, Lahore, Moscow…
The Chicago MSA provides consolation to us who are afraid of being associated with a provincial Midwestern city in decline. It extends into Wisconsin and Indiana[iv], and boasts a statistical population of 9.62mn people (2020 US Census) on 10,856 sq mi, which is about the size of Belgium, with which it shares a distinctive lack of natural beauty.
By size and economic power, Chicago(land) very much dominates Illinois with a population of 12.67mn people (2020 US census) on largely empty 51,915 sq mi.
People Are Leaving
A shrinking population is both a symptom and a problem, as it leads to lower spending by everyone incl. the government, depopulated areas, empty schools, declining house prices and pervasive pessimism. The fate of Detroit, which shrank from 1.85mn people in 1950 to about 620,000 today, is the threat scenario. In 2010, Detroit was on the verge of converting its downtown to farmland. Chicago is far away from that.
We know that people are leaving, because they sell their houses, say good-bye, and send a postcard from Atlanta, Charleston, Austin or Miami to tell us how much they enjoy their new life. We don’t know precisely how many people are leaving because a) some people are coming (i.e., immigrants), b) our decennial mandatory Census doesn’t get enforced, and c) people often don’t trust the Census results for various reasons[v], so everybody comes up with their own estimates.
Chicago is shrinking, and Illinois even more so:
This shrinkage is happening while the United States enjoy some healthy growth, about 1.6% since the last Census (by common estimates about 336mn people live here in July 2023). Some people don’t like it because 86% comes from immigration.
The ethnic mix[vi] in Chicago’s change gives reason for sorrow and hope (and it’s complicated):
- Black people in Chicago went from 1,187mn in 1980 to 787,551 in 2020[vii], looking for better or more affordable lives elsewhere in the US. A loss of talent and culture comes with this — the Obamas, Jesse Jackson, Muhammad Ali, Curtis Mayfield, Muddy Waters, Louis Armstrong, Nat King Cole, Jennifer Hudson and many more descended from here (but also R.Kelly and Kanye West).
- The number of Hispanics or Latinos in Chicago increased by over 5% since 2010, to 778,000 in 2020 — forming the second largest ethnic group (about 1.4mn in Chicago MSA), and they are the friendly backbone of our service industry.
- Our Asian population grew from 146,000 to 185,000 in the same timespan (and a much bigger 622,970 in Chicago MSA), 40% of them descend from India and they tend to be better at math than we are.
Should I Stay or Should I Go?
How do you measure the attractiveness of a city? We live very different lives in this city, depending on who we are and where we live. The average income of a White person in Chicago is about 70k per year, whereas a Black person’s income is a measly 30k. Life expectancy for Black people is about 70 years, whereas a White person can expect to live over 80 years. While this doesn’t differentiate Chicago from other places in the US — people worry about crime, inequality, jobs, and housing everywhere — here, people worry a lot, so they pack up and leave.
Crime can be bad, depending on where you live in Chicago
Unlike Joseph Epstein from Evanston, who seems to be cruising through the most perilous areas in the dark of the night, I have never seen a crime in my time here. No murders, no shootings, no beatings, no robberies, no car thefts. The only thing that I witnessed was a car chase by the police (everyone got caught). Now, it would be foolish to infer from this that there are no crimes in Chicago. There is plenty of crime, in 2022 we recorded:
- 695 murders/homicides (mostly by gun)
- 2,832 shooting incidents
- 8,996 robberies
- 2,033 criminal sexual assaults
- 5,890 cases of aggravated battery
- 7,622 burglaries
- 20,194 cases of (non-vehicle) theft
- 21,425 cases of vehicle theft
Neglecting the realistic possibility that some people were affected by multiple cases, 2.5% of Chicago’s population filed a complaint about a crime last year. And there is probably more crime because many victims don’t cooperate with the police. Even when considering the typical definitional and statistical issues, someone is far more likely to be murdered or have their car stolen than in the rest of the country — on average. On the other hand, theft seems to be more common in other cities. Under normal circumstances, it would be grossly incorrect to compare a big city like Chicago to a national average of mostly small towns. But that’s where people are moving, not New York City or Los Angeles (in their defense, both have much lower homicide rates than Chicago. So does Kabul/Afghanistan). Also, Chicago is unfairly called the “murder capital” of the United States, it’s ranked №37 on the list of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
Violent crimes affect young Black and Hispanic people from disadvantaged neighborhoods far more than people from other ethnicities, age groups and neighborhoods[viii]. Killings happen largely within ethnic boundaries, as it’s the case across the United States. A White person from Chicago’s North is unlikely to get killed by a Black person from Chicago’s South or Far Westside. Black people have many reasons to leave their neighborhoods for a seemingly better place, White people’s realistic worry is to become the victim of carjackings, of which we had approx. 1,600 last year.
There is poverty in the city
There is also wealth, although most of the truly wealthy live on the North Shore of Lake Michigan. Two cities within Chicago MSA are in the national Top 10: Winnetka (median household income of $350k per year) and Glencoe ($329k) are just 30min north of Chicago downtown, on a good day. The median household income in the poorest (and typically most violent) zip codes is $37k, which compares to $66k for Chicago overall. Chicago households consist of 2.42 people on average, and a household income of $100k — $150 is not a rarity in Chicago’s middle-class neighborhoods.
About 450,000 people (16.6%) in Chicago live below the poverty line of $27,479 for a family of four. The share of people is lower than L.A.’s, NYC’s, Houston’s, Boston’s or Philadelphia’s, but above the national average of 11.2%. So far, not much remarkable about Chicago’s poverty, one might think.
The problem with the (11) most violent zip codes is that they account for 13% of Chicago’s population, but for almost 50% of all violent crimes (it’s even higher for murders). We have a good idea of what causes this concentration (~100,000 estimated gang members who are often generational, low trust in the police, no-snitch codes, lack of educational resources, illegal guns coupled with light sentencing codes, political corruption, etc.) but within the troubled areas there is no correlation between household income and violent crime — bullets don’t discriminate by income:
Living on an income of $37k in a household of 2.4 is tough, even with various government support options (i.e., SNAP, Medicaid, LIHEAP, EITC, Section 8 housing choice voucher program, TANF, childcare assistance, utility bill assistance — contrary to European preconceptions, the US provides some kind of “social net”). Some consolation may be derived from the fact that $37k in Chicago pays for as much as $100k in New York City. Still — poorer households paying 50% of their income on housing on average is a good reason to look for more peaceful and affordable homes elsewhere.
There are plenty of jobs in the Chicago area
In aggregate, the Chicago area’s job situation mirrors the country’s. A 3.5% unemployment rate in the Chicago area vs. a national unemployment rate of 3.4% (BLS, May 2023) can be considered as full employment. The biggest year-over-year increase happened in leisure and hospitality (+7.4%), because people love to travel and dine out.
To be counted as a part of the civilian labor force, someone has to be either employed or actively looking for work, and many people drop out for various reasons (retirement, in school, etc. — I wrote about this topic previously). There is good news about the Black population’s labor force participation, which is now higher than the White population’s (in the US, the BLS doesn’t provide numbers for this on a regional or local level). As a rule of thumb in the US, Black people’s unemployment rate is 2x than the rate of White people, Hispanics 1.5x and Asians are equally or even more employed than Whites. The Chicago area is roughly similar to the US overall, with the exception of Black people being 3x more unemployed than White people.
The numbers here are partial estimates and derive from different sources for the US and for Chicago, but the story seems correct.
Covid has been devastating for Black women and Black youth, the latter continuing to see elevated levels of unemployment nationwide and in the Chicago area (>20%). Things have improved a lot since Covid, but we are not quite there yet. Maybe this motivates some people to leave, but it doesn’t seem to be an insurmountable structural issue. We are far away from a Great Depression.
The city’s finances affect everyone
Chicago’s financial situation is not good, connected to the slightly better finances of Cook County (5.3mn citizens) — at the center of the Chicago metropolitan area — and inseparably tied to the very bad condition of Illinois. Government finances matter to businesses and citizens alike, and to the wealthy and the poor who live here. Businesses and the wealthy worry about tax hikes, the poor can expect a deterioration of municipal services. Everyone can pack up and leave, thereby making life worse for those left behind.
Some of this may trigger memories of Greece’s economic crisis which unfolded in 2009, but Illinois’ GDP is a little over $1trn (that’s 12 zeroes), more than 4x bigger than Greece’s. As a country, Illinois’ economy would be about as big as Indonesia or slightly smaller than Spain or Australia, all of them with a lot more mouths to feed than Illinois. Depending on views, this could be a gigantic time bomb or a tremendous potential.
Illinois, Cook County and Chicago act within a web of shared responsibilities[ix] through their various agencies. Services that we perceive as municipal may be provided by the state or county and vice versa. By the way, Cook County is in large part a hospital operator (66% of its revenues and expenses are related to its hospitals). Deficiencies that we blame the Chicago government for may be outside its responsibility (i.e., lenient judicial treatment for juvenile carjackers). Taxes get collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue (i.e. local, county or state sales taxes) and then passed on to the counties or the cities. The federal government also chips in a little money, $4bn are projected for Illinois in 2024. Bookkeeping is not easy, double entry bookkeeping unheard of, but all levels of government strive to create transparency — unfortunately more in prose than in structured numbers.
On first sight, this doesn’t look like Greece in 2008 or Pakistan in 2023. To close the gap, progress has been made in Chicago, where a deficit of $800mn was reduced to $80mn. There exists external debt on all levels (numbers from various sources, 2021–2023), mostly in the form of bonds — not to be confused with pension or healthcare obligations (more on that later):
- Chicago has outstanding bonds[x] of $22.6bn ($16.6bn thereof are tied to its two airports; a $12.8bn modernization of O’Hare is underway and supposed to be completed until 2032) and about $1.3–1.5bn in annual interest payments ($527mn without the airports plus an estimated 5% on airport related debt). S&P has a positive outlook on Chicago’s general obligation bonds and rates them BBB+. Bonds tied to O’Hare and Midway are rated A+.
- Cook County has $3.1bn of outstanding debt, leading to a little over $300mn in annual debt service payments.
- Illinois has $29.8bn in bonds outstanding (thereof $9.1bn tied to its pensions), debt service cost is $1.6bn per year.
This sounds like a lot of debt, but it isn’t outrageous for government institutions. Chicago’s debt seems high, but the airports account for the bulk of it, and they are big corporations within a government apparatus. But there is an elephant in the house: unfunded obligations for generous pensions to loyal voters in public service, our original sin.
Chicago needs to fund four major pension funds with 125,000 current members, PABF (policemen), FABF (firefighters), LABF (laborers), and MEABF (municipal employees). In 2022, Chicago contributed the full actuarially determined amount to all four pension funds for the first time in history. This is good news, although the pension funding ratio is still low at 30–50%, depending on the fund. The required 90% funding will not be achieved until 2055 and it is not a negotiable item. By actuarial determination, Chicago’s pension debt is around $48bn (!), which explains the roughly $2.8bn of annual pension fund contributions that are in the plan now — or $22,400 per current member. I don’t understand where that money is going to come from.
When it comes to the state of Illinois, I will let George Will speak his mind[xi]:
Illinois’ debt, relative to the size of its economy, is the nation’s worst. The unfunded liabilities of state-managed pension systems are $313 billion, which is around 30 percent of Illinois’ gross domestic product. Even sustained brisk economic growth would not solve the pension crisis under current law. And current law makes such growth impossible.
In 2015, a bipartisan pension reform was scuttled by the state Supreme Court’s decision that the Illinois Constitution protects government employees’ pensions from any diminishment — not merely of already accrued benefits but of all potential future benefits for employees already in the system. The Illinois Policy Institute’s proposed constitutional amendment — which would require 60 percent majorities in both houses of the legislature, then ratification by statewide referendum — would allow future pension benefits to be reduced to sustainable levels, while protecting current benefits. The amendment would make possible correcting the following conditions:
State and local employees hired before 2011, whose contributions to their own pensions average only 4 to 6 percent of expected lifetime payouts, will typically receive payouts that exceed — sometimes by a lot — $2 million. The compounding of 3 percent annual cost-of-living increases, regardless of the inflation rate, doubles pensions after 25 years. Americans’ full Social Security benefits cannot be collected until recipients are 67; Illinois state employees hired before 2011 can retire in their 50s.
If Europeans are wondering why Chicago is still relying on early 20th century infrastructure (highlines, diesel powered trains, monstrous potholes, and the worst traffic jams in the US, 2nd worst worldwide), this is one of the main reasons. If we are asking for more police presence in our streets, who is considering their pensions? The same goes for much needed educational investments and other municipal services. People with money are leaving, among other reasons, because of rising state and municipal taxes on top of federal taxes[xii]:
- 4.95% state personal income tax
- 9.5% state corporate income tax
- Up to 16% estate tax for amounts over $4mn
- Property tax of up to 2.19% on assessed values (at $1.7bn per year, it’s Chicago’s largest source of revenue by far)
- Combined sales tax for Illinois and Chicago of 10.25%
It all adds up, although the cost-of-living in Chicago is comparatively low. People live with a realistic fear of escalating taxes to close the budget gaps.
Everybody prefers better weather
Especially White or Black citizens (Hispanics or Asians don’t seem to move that much) are leaving high-tax, high cost-of-living states in hope of better jobs and lower cost-of-living. The top outbound migration states are Illinois and Michigan in the Midwest, as well as California (good weather on average, very high taxes and cost-of-living), New York (very high taxes and cost-of-living) and New Jersey (just high taxes). The top inbound migration states are South Carolina, Colorado, Oregon, Texas and Florida. Remarkably, the Atlanta/Georgia region (not known for racial tolerance) attracts a large number of Black migrants, in a reversal of the great migration to the North in the beginning of the last century. In 1900, 90% of the US Black population resided in the South, by 1970 that number had declined to 53%, and now it’s back to 57%[xiii].
Speaking with friends who made the move, I get a lot of the tax argument, but I don’t fully buy it. Granted, Florida and Texas don’t have a private income tax, but South Carolina’s top rate is 7% and Colorado charges 4.4%. Also, the Top 1% in the US only pay 25.99% federal income tax on average, so 4% more doesn’t outweigh the greatly increased cost-of-living in Miami Beach/FL, Austin/TX or Vail/CO. People are happy in Texas, even if the temperature rises to 110F in the summer and the energy bill goes through the roof in the occasional winter storms, and they are happy in Florida, where they struggle to get property insurance and their houses may get flooded and blown away by a hurricane. Live for the moment, worry about the future later, I guess.
Summing it up
Chicago and Illinois suffer from contagious pessimism, for legitimate reasons. Other states offer infectious optimism, and it would be futile to offer transplants the argument of the world’s biggest freshwater reserves vs. the impact of climate change on the South. By some estimates, since 2012 a cumulative $25bn in gross personal income has left Chicago, which amounts to a lot of lost consumption and tax revenue. There is no shrinking to greatness, regardless of whether the people leaving are rich or poor. Real growth in GDP/capita in the Chicago metro area has been an almost respectable 0.73% per year since 2011, but total GDP has been declining in real terms — the effect of many poor people leaving. Any solution to the problem of shrinking runs through increased optimism.
A Possible Path To Solutions
Bankruptcy is not the solution. States cannot go bankrupt in the US, for technical and constitutional reasons. In many states, cities and counties can, and some have chosen that path (Detroit in 2013, Orange County in 1994), but Chicago would need Illinois’ permission and it won’t get it. It also has too much money, a large enough potential tax base and public pensions are constitutionally guaranteed, so no relief there.
I won’t claim to have all the solutions and unfortunately, I don’t have any good ideas for the nagging pension problem. There are some very competent people in government, dealing with enormous complexity and a fractious community. Reading through our budget reports, it is hard not to notice the serious effort to stabilize our finances, and there is some success in doing so.
Developing an exciting, fair and workable vision for the city
It’s not true what a former colleague of mine used to say: “Those who have visions, need to see a therapist”. A vision of what city we want to be in future, broken down into a few coherent elements, will motivate reasonable people to join the effort and maybe agree to make the necessary sacrifices.
A search for “A Vision for Chicago” delivers plenty of eye care specialists. “The government’s vision for Chicago” leads to departmental visions about i.e. financial planning or improved healthcare. Resilient.chicago.gov. describes “A More Connected Chicago” with everyone in the city (i.e., residents, neighbors, communities, governments etc.) connecting with everyone, which is trendy and nice but won’t do much to solve the city’s problems.
I wrote about this before, and a sound vision needs three balanced and well-articulated elements:
- An element which appeals to people’s emotions and motivates them
- An element which satisfies people’s need for ethical solutions
- A logical part which makes people believe that it’s all going work out in the end
“Raise taxes on the wealthy and the businesses to fund all budget needs and create equity for the poor” will appeal to some people, and some think tank proposals point in that direction, but it lacks logic (people and businesses will leave and thereby reduce tax revenue) and ethics (i.e., many businesses are struggling too). On the other hand, “let’s drive out the poor, so we will be a city for the affluent, with no violent crime” falls short on the ethical side and lacks logic too (who is going to do all the work?). Both will not get a majority of Chicago’s citizens to join the vision with excitement.
I don’t have one for Chicago, this is supposed to be a team effort.
Create a 10-Year Masterplan
Our last mayor lasted only 4 years, the current one is still working on his plan. Our governor — who doesn’t seem to be too popular, but compares favorably to most of the previous ones — is showing some consistency in his second term. The problem is that any change will kick in long term and will deliver results with glacial speed. We have some good examples of successful long-term agendas which were created despite unpredictable outlooks for their governments, i.e., Germany’s Agenda 2010 or Greece’s masterplan after its crisis of 2009.
Such a plan — what kind of city are we going to be in 10 years and how do we get there? — should not be a wishful political manifesto, but an implementation plan that’s derived from a sound vision. This requires skills and time that politicians don’t have by nature of their jobs. Bring in McKinsey, BCG or Bain to do this under the supervision of the government — they are good at this. They may even do it for free.
Support more lighthouse projects
By number of tourists, Chicago is the No 3 in the country — behind Orlando and NYC — despite her difficult reputation. Everybody from outside who comes here loves Chicago. In 2023, we welcomed just under 49 million visitors, which equates to roughly 80% of the 60.8 visitors in 2019 before Covid. The visitors in 2022 are estimated to have contributed $17bn to our economy, so we need more of them. Of course, we want high-quality tourism and our visitors’ interests indicate that we are on the right track (i.e., art and historical museums, nature parks, restaurants, entertainment, and sports).
The Riverwalk was a notable lighthouse project which attracts visitors and pays continuous dividends to Chicago’s economy. It’s a 1.25 mile walk on the Chicago River’s left bank, from Lake Shore Drive to Lake Street. It was developed in two phases, 2001 to 2006 and 2012 to 2016. Its estimated $200mn of construction cost was partially funded by a federal loan of $110mn by the US Department of Transportation. The ongoing privately managed Fulton Market transformation (with about $900mn in government TIF support) is another such lighthouse project.
While projects like this often attract criticism for putting more money into wealthy neighborhoods, they should be seen as profitable projects that ultimately help everyone. We need more lighthouse projects and my European experience (i.e., Vienna, Hamburg, Munich, London, Zurich, Barcelona, Marseille) tells me that there is almost always an economic benefit associated with those projects. Chicago needs to add some modernization to her morbid charm. What about a New York style High Line downtown? That would require moving one of the rumbling trains underground, which will be costly, slow and a total nuisance. Ultimately, it will leave everyone happier.
On a personal note, I am not a fan of the planned casino, which is projected to earn the city over $200mn annually from 2027 onwards. It will end in tears, just like Atlantic City. And it will create more crime, and fighting crime is expensive. I don’t see the projected $2.7bn additional value getting created, and I am not a fan of the government promoting activities that are proven to be detrimental to the public’s health and safety.
Immigration of talents
As some parts of the nation become less welcoming of foreigners and globalism, Chicago can stand out and create initiatives to attract the world’s talents. It is still a fairly monocultural town, as opposed to Toronto or — in the extreme — London. More London and less provincial Midwest should be the target. Granted, the US’s immigration policy sits firmly with the federal government, but much could be done to support local firms in getting through the jungle of permits.
The Chicago area has the third-largest college population in the country, with 670,000 students in world-class universities (only NYC and L.A. have more). Unfortunately, Chicago is not a favorite city for students to look for their first jobs — that’s Seattle, New York, Los Angeles, Boston and Denver (Chicago is in 6th place). Much more needs to be done to keep students in town, so that Chicago is not only a window to the world, but the world in itself.
More transparency on numbers
Chicago is making an effort to be transparent, but much of its numbers remain arcane (the same goes for Illinois, which is worse). The city’s data portal is still an ambitious effort by and for computer engineers. The city’s financial reporting is too verbose and lacks structured, accessible, and exhaustive data tables. Too much writing is devoted to political self-aggrandizement and chastising of previous administrations.
I wish the financial reporting was as readable as a good corporate annual report that leaves out nothing. As a starting point, this would require double-entry bookkeeping. This will give us — in addition to revenues and expenses — a consolidated balance sheet with all assets and liabilities, without side pockets that don’t get disclosed; and I would like a cash-flow statement. This is not an impossible thing, as other countries have proven (Greece had to, under pressure from the EU), and it keeps everyone from deluding themselves about the state of affairs.
Is There Hope For Chicago?
Of course, there is. Cities rise and fall all the time. Some cities are pronounced dead and come back to life. By nature, Chicago has many advantages over other places: its universities, a diversified economy, an international airport, its 2-hour proximity to every city east of the Rocky Mountains, a rich history, and the lake — of course. When it comes to crime and its finances, the solution rests on better governance. Smart people with administrative talent and a heart are needed — people from all walks of life, regardless of origin, political affiliation, ethnicity or identity.
Footnotes
[i] Some people from Evanston like to claim that they are from Chicago, but this will not get accepted by true Chicagoans: https://www.facebook.com/Fox32Chicago/videos/bruh-youre-from-evanston-the-exchange-has-quickly-gone-viral-if-youre-from-the-s/10155396983258797/
[ii] Between 1870 and 1900, Chicago grew from a city of 299,000 to nearly 1.7 million and was the fastest-growing city in world history (Wikipedia)
[iii] Some of this is famously portrayed in Upton Sinclair’s book “The Jungle”, which describes unbearable working and unsanitary conditions in Chicago’s meatpacking factories and led to the US Pure Food and Drug Act of 1906 and the establishment of the FDA
[iv] The U.S. Office of Management and Budget defines a set of core based statistical areas (CBSAs) throughout the country, which are composed of counties and county equivalents.[5] CBSAs are delineated on the basis of a central contiguous area of relatively high population density, known as an urban area or urban cluster. The counties containing the core urban area are known as the central counties of the CBSA; these are defined as having at least 50% of their population living in urban areas of at least 10,000 in population.[6] Additional surrounding counties, known as outlying counties, can be included in the CBSA if these counties have strong social and economic ties to the central county or counties as measured by commuting and employment (Wikipedia).
[v] https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2023/04/14/illinois-population-census-data-concerns
[vi] I prefer to use the ethnicity instead of race, due to my German and Austrian upbringing. The US government distinguishes between races and ethnicity, but also uses the terms interchangeably
[vii] US Census, Rob Paral & Associates
[viii] “Inequalities in Exposure to Firearm Violence by Race, Sex, and Birth Cohort, From Childhood to Age 40 Years, 1995–2021”, by Charles C. Lanfear, PhD; Rebecca Bucci, PhD; David S. Kirk, PhD; Robert J. Sampson, PhD, JAMA Network Open
[ix] I consulted ChatGPT-4 for this paragraph:
In Illinois, the state budget refers to the financial plan and allocation of resources for the entire state government, which includes various state agencies, departments, and programs. The state budget is approved and managed by the Illinois General Assembly and the Governor.
Cook County, on the other hand, is the most populous county in Illinois and has its own budgetary process. Cook County has its own sources of revenue, such as property taxes, sales taxes, and fees. The Cook County Board, consisting of elected commissioners, is responsible for approving and managing the county budget, which includes funding for county services and programs.
Chicago, as the largest city in Illinois and the county seat of Cook County, also has its own distinct budget. The city of Chicago has its own revenue sources, including taxes and fees, and is responsible for managing its finances independently. The budget for the city of Chicago is approved by the Mayor and the City Council.
[x] Bonds: Long-term debt primarily used to finance infrastructure projects including street and alley construction and improvements, lighting, sidewalk replacement, curb and gutter repairs and replacement, and transportation improvements, as well as Enterprise Fund related projects. The City of Chicago has several different types of bonds including general obligation bonds, Motor Fuel Tax revenue bonds, tax increment allocation bonds, water and wastewater bonds, and O’Hare and Midway Bonds. (https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/depts/obm/supp_info/2023Budget/2023-OVERVIEW.pdf)
[xi] “Unlikely, but here’s how Illinois could escape its fiscal abyss”, by George Will, Washington Post, April 8, 2022
[xii] Until 2017, when Trump’s government introduced its tax reform which eliminated the deductibility of state and local taxes from federal taxes. Deductibility was considered a subsidy of high tax Democratic states and the elimination was an easy win for low tax Republican states.
[xiii] A ‘New Great Migration’ is bringing Black Americans back to the South, by William H. Frey, Brookings Institute, , September 12, 2022
