Leading the development of exploratory modeling in our field.

Sarah Sun awarded inaugural Zephyr Foundation Award for Decision Making Hero

Exploratory modeling and robust decision making under deep uncertainty are in the forefront of planners minds. Limitations of point forecasts and traditional “trend-based” approaches to forecasting have been long recognized. However, it is only in the last decade with rapid acceleration of new technologies, shifts in travel behavior and urban logistics and large scale disasters (like the one we are experiencing now with COVID-19) that these limitations started severely compromise credibility of traditional transportation plans. Infrastructure investment decisions, planning solutions and design alternatives need more robust, explicit incorporation of uncertainty and risk analysis. Sarah Sun had professional wisdom to make this direction one of the main efforts of the Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP) and promoted development of technical tools that can support new ways of transportation model applications.

The advances and projects that TMIP spearheaded under Sarah’s leadership not only contributed to the development of technical tools such as the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Tool (EMAT), but, maybe more importantly, put robust decision making under deep uncertainty and risk analysis firmly on the travel forecasting agenda. Autonomous and connected vehicles, break-through innovations in interrupted traffic flow control, acceleration and broad propagation of teleworking and many other relevant emerging phenomena need close attention from transportation and urban planners and forecasters. Facilitation of the relevant research through a major FHWA modeling program will have lasting positive impact on our profession.

The Zephyr Decision Making Hero Award

The Zephyr Decision Making Hero Award shall be given to a travel analysis professional or a team who has made a significant contribution to decision-making.

The 2020 Decision Making Hero Award Committee was:

• Jonathan Ehrlrich, Metropolitan Council (Twin Cities MPO)
• Vladimir Livshits, Maricopa Association of Governments (Phoenix MPO)

The Zephyr Foundation is a venue through which leading researchers and practitioners seek to develop and implement travel analysis methods and tools that are demonstrably more valuable, credible, transparent, tractable, reproducible, and usable in order to support public policy decision-making that is inclusive and promotes equitable outcomes, shared prosperity, and sustainability. Contact us if you’re interested in learning more about other Zephyr projects.