Bitcoin Weekly Update #15
By 4C Trading — 23/12/2019 :
This analysis is intended for swing traders or medium-term investors. As a reminder, swing trading is a strategy of speculation in financial markets where an asset is held only for a few days to take advantage of price fluctuations. In this analysis, which you will find every week, I will detail my vision of the market and more specifically the one of Bitcoin. In addition to a technical analysis, I will summarize 3/4 of the news that impacted the market.
Christmas is coming!
Before starting this analysis, know that a surprise awaits you at the end of this article, a way for 4C-trading to thank you for your commitment, your testimonials and your loyalty! But before the gift, let’s take a look at what’s happened to Bitcoin since last week.
On December 16th, scenario 2 stated in the weekly analysis #14 came true:
Main support: $6890, in case of confirmed breakage (candle full), we’ll have a bearish continuation, with the next potential support being $6000 and/or $5,800.
The 6890$ break was clear, accompanied by a nice volume. This resulted in the opening of a short position with only one of the three take profits reached at around $6530. I had a lot of doubts about opening this short and knew from the start that it probably wouldn’t hit $6000. The reason? We still had a gap on the futures contract at around $7,160. That’s why as soon as the short opened, I set up a tight stop-loss, which I very quickly secured by putting it in my profit zone. The rise that took place on December 18th was fast, more than 15% in a few hours and obviously took away my stop loss. The latter went for the CME gap (that we mentioned in the previous analysis), then the course stabilized by creating a textbook case: a famous “bull flag” that moved upwards on Sunday evening.
In the previous analysis, I have highlighted the trends of Bitcoin’s price over the months of December. This week, I wanted to take this analysis a step further and see how Bitcoin has behaved over the last few years on the famous Christmas Day: December 24th. Here is a summary table:
All in all, we can see that on December 24th, Bitcoin has a relatively large movement: on average 7%. Is it possible to make a prediction or to recognize a repeating pattern? I don’t think so, but I’ll leave you to make your own judgement.
Regarding my personal opinion on Bitcoin, I am looking forward to the closing of the CME Bitcoin futures contract. This will take place on December 27, 2019.
My analysis is that the contract opened on July 1 put Bitcoin’s price on a bearish trend. This trend could therefore continue until the 6-month futures contract closes. If we look at the associated chart, we can see that the opening/closing of the 6-month Bitcoin futures contracts are quite clearly delineating either upward or downward trends for Bitcoin.
Thus, I remain with a short term bearish bias and a medium term bullish bias. The ideal would be the opening of a new futures contract at the end of December which would mark the beginning of an uptrend if Bitcoin meets the following conditions (which I’ve been repeating for the past 3 weeks):
- Weekly MACD bullish crosses
- Fear and Greed Index very low
- Actual volume recovery
- Bounce on the weekly 200MA
Also note that last weekend left a new gap in the CME Bitcoin futures market. As the price of Bitcoin is currently above it, I expect a drop in the coming days to at least close it. If you are a novice and you are not familiar with this last paragraph, I invite you to read my article on this subject.
Don’t forget your stop-losses and adopt rigorous risk management. This is a trading plan and not a prediction. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis and wish you a Merry Christmas !
News :
- Bitfinex allows buying crypto with credit and debit card: Users of the crypto exchange Bitfinex will now have the opportunity to purchase cryptocurrencies using their credit or debit cards. The sister company of Tether coin enabled this option by working with two third-party firms : Mercuryo and Ownr wallet.
- France approved country first ICO: On December 18th, financial regulator of France, Autorité des Marches Financiers (AMF) have approved the first ICO of the country. The offeror, French-ICO has been white-listed on AMF’s website and the offer will start from March, 1 2020 to June 1, 2020.
- German new law will recognize crypto as a financial instrument: After January, 1st 2020, crypto assets will be categorized by German Banking Act as a financial instrument. The new law defined crypto as a digital presentation of a value which isn’t issued by the Central Bank but can be accepted based on agreements by parties as mean of payments.
- 4C Trading gives back this festive season ! : Spin to win prizes from discounts to FREE subscriptions. Everybody wins! You only need to enter your email address below to get a chance to spin the wheel. It’s the perfect time to save big on your next purchase or try our products for FREE!
Nico, analyst at 4C-trading.
You can join us on Telegram for a follow-up of the market throughout the day.
For any question, our team will be happy to answer you on our support which is open 7/7 days.
For any information about our subscriptions, please visit our website or contact @butler_4c_botdirectly to get all the information you need.
