The NFL Continuity Index: Part 3
Can past performance be a guarantee of future results in the NFL? Examining the continuity of NFC North teams.
Check out Part 1 of the Continuity Index, which explains how continuity is measured for each team and examines the NFC West, and Part 2 of the Continuity Index, which covers the NFC South.
In Part 3 of the Continuity Index we tackle the NFC North. Here are the continuity totals for each team:
Packers 90 out of 100
Vikings 71.6 out of 100
Lions 71 out of 100
Bears 41.1 out of 100
Here is the team-by-team breakdown and analysis of each team’s situation:
Green Bay Packers: 90% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Mike McCarthy HC, Playcaller (3+ Years), Edgar Bennett OC (2 Years-exception), Dom Capers DC (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Aaron Rodgers (3+Years & in System) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 3–4” (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (3) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (0) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 7.3 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (5) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 7 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Ty Montgomery (1 Year) Leading Receiver: Jordy Nelson (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 6.7 out of 10
Front Office: Ted Thompson GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
There’s no need to over-analyze this: The Green Bay Packers have the most continuity of any NFC team. They are a model franchise, with stability everywhere. Obviously, it also helps when you have the best quarterback in the NFL not named Tom Brady, but even the defense looks like they’re finally starting to coalesce. Will we get our long-awaited Rodgers-Brady Super Bowl this year? Vegas seems to think so.
Going by each team’s very high continuity rating, should the Packers-Seahawks game in Lambeau to open the 2017 season bear a lot of resemblance to the 38–10 game they played this past December? In a word, no. First, the Seahawks turned the ball over an impossibly high 6 times- that’s extremely unlikely to happen again. Second, they were playing their first game without Earl Thomas. (Who I expressed my undying love for in the NFC West continuity index.) In fact, this was the third play from scrimmage in that game:
This one play perfectly encapsulates how badly the Seahawks missed Earl Thomas, and it set the tone for the rest of the day. A healthy Earl and a normal amount of turnovers will make a dramatic difference, but it’s hard not to still like the Packers in the spot anyway, as the home/road splits for both teams (but specifically the Seahawks) are some of the most dramatic in the league. Currently the line is (mostly) Green Bay -3, which is reasonable, if not undervaluing the Pack a little- but I will have a more in-depth evaluation of the line of this game when the season officially begins.
Minnesota Vikings: 71.6% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Mike Zimmer HC & Defensive Playcaller (3+ Years) Pat Shurmur OC (1 Year) George Edwards DC (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 15.4 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Sam Bradford (1 Year & 3+Years in System) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 43” (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (0) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 1.3 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (7) two-year starters: (3) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 9.3 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Dalvin Cook- projected (position battle) Leading Receiver: Stephon Diggs (2 Years) Continuity Score: 3.3 out of 10
Front Office: Rick Spielman GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
It is safe to say the Vikings were the most enigmatic team of 2016. Were they the team that started 5–0, which included 3 wins against eventual playoff teams and a big road win against the defending conference champs, or were they the team that finished 3–8, including embarrassing losses to the Bears and Colts? The answer is both. Or neither. Or really, no one knows- it’s as confounding to figure out as the team itself.
In a way, the Vikings are a macrocosm of their quarterback Sam Bradford, a former #1 overall pick with all the arm talent, smarts, and accuracy you want in a QB. (Did you know last year he set an all-time single season record by completing an astonishing 71.6% of his passes? So why didn’t it translate to more wins on gameday? If I could give a definitive answer to that, I should be given my own team to run.) The problem is, there is a certain aspect to the quarterback position that requires a special “it” factor that either a quarterback has or doesn’t have. And unfortunately for Sam, he’s played in enough NFL games for us to see that he doesn’t have “it.” However, that doesn’t mean that the Vikings can’t win a championship with just a good/ok quarterback- After all, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson were starting QBs on Super Bowl winning teams. All the Vikings have to do is form an all-time great defense on par with the 2001 Ravens or 2002 Bucs. Piece of cake!
All joking aside, it’s the defense that will make or break this team, and I think the coaching staff knows it. There is a hell of a lot of talent on that side of the ball, with full continuity in scheme, coaching, and they are tied with the Rams for the highest ‘defensive personnel’ continuity in the NFC. The defense is set, but in order to win a Super Bowl, either Sam Bradford needs to take his game to the next level, or the D just says ‘f*** it’ and takes it upon themselves to carry this team in an otherworldly way. While highly unlikely, I can at least visualize this defense being able to step up and have a playoff run like the 2002 Bucs. Sadly, what I can’t see is Sam Bradford capable of having a “Joe Flacco 2013” postseason- but maybe it would help if he actually made the playoffs for once. And while I mostly find it trite to call out QBs for not winning games (it shows no real understanding of how football is the ultimate team sport), if the 2017 Vikings don’t make the playoffs I think we’ll all know why.
Therefore, the most important player on this team this year (and a potential fantasy sleeper) could end up being rookie Dalvin Cook. Cook is a supremely talented back that somehow fell to the Vikings in the second round. I think this was a surprise to even them, as I bet they never would have signed Latavius Murray had they anticipated that happening. However, this could inadvertently work out great for them, since each runner has a different style that can compliment one another. All the Vikings need now is for their offensive line to come together in a hurry. The bad news is, they have the worst O-line continuity in the league. The good news is, their line was pretty terrible last year anyway, and losing Matt Kalil might be one of your classic addition-by-subtraction scenarios- which means they have nowhere to go but up. So if they have a functional offensive line, and if they have a more dynamic running game, and if Sam Bradford becomes more of the QB that they need him to be, and less of the guy whose picture pops up when you google “Ryan Reynolds with down syndrome,” then this team has a puncher’s chance at making a Super Bowl run. But that’s a lot of ifs.
Detroit Lions: 71% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Jim Caldwell HC (3+ Years) Jim Bob Cooter OC (2 Years) Teryl Austin DC (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 17.8 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Matthew Stafford (3+Years, 2 in System) Continuity Score: 16.6 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 4–3” (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (1) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 2.6 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (4) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 6 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Theo Reddick (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: Golden Tate (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 5 out of 10
Front Office: Bob Quinn GM (1 Year) Continuity Score: 3 out of 9
Analysis:
Last year I felt we were finally going to see how good Matthew Stafford was, as he was without the security of Calvin Johnson to throw to for the first time. And you know what? In a lot of ways Stafford was actually better. If not for the late season swoon, the Lions would’ve hosted a playoff game for the first time since 1993. The offense is dangerous and more diverse under OC Jim Bob Cooter (My favorite name in football), and they seem to get the most out of their eclectic group of skill position players. The problem in 2017 is that their offensive line is in shambles, with their best player Taylor Decker being out likely for the entire 2017 season. However, Matt Stafford has made a believer out of me, and the offense is well suited to get the most out of him.
Where I’m not sold about the Lions is defensively. (Ironically, where the Vikings have a great defense but a quarterback that lets them down, the Lions have a great quarterback but a defense that lets them down.) I just don’t get it: They have complete continuity in coaching and scheme, yet there’s something that’s just not translating, because the defense was awful at times. If I’m being optimistic, Ziggy Ansah had a terrible, injury plagued year and they still made the playoffs. 2017 is a contract year for him, so maybe he will be motivated to round back into form. Maybe the Lions will get a big season from second-year players A’Shawn Robinson and Miles Killebrew, both of whom I consider steals at where they were chosen in the 2016 draft. The problem is, there’s an awful lot of inconsistency and question marks for a team that has been playing in their system for a while. I don’t know whether the blame falls on coaching, or front office not finding the right players, or a combination of both, but something isn’t clicking on that side of the ball. And since not all that much has changed, it looks like 2017 is going to give us more of the same with the Lions’ defense.
Fantasy wise, and especially if you are in a PPR league, you’ve got to love the value of Golden Tate, as his production rivals 2nd round picks but for some reason you can always get him in the 3rd or 4th round. Maybe it’s his diminutive size, or previously playing in Calvin Johnson’s shadow, but since he got to Detroit his end-of-the-year receiving totals have been incredible- and based upon the Lions’ offensive continuity, there’s no reason to see a letdown for him in 2017.
Chicago Bears: 41.1% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) John Fox HC (2 Years) Dowell Loggains OC (First Year) Vic Fangio DC (2 Years) Continuity Score: 8.9 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Mike Glennon/ Mitchell Trubisky (First Year, Both) Continuity Score: 0 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 3–4” (2 Years) Vic Fangio DC (2 years) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (1) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 4.6 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (4) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 5 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Jordan Howard (1 Year) Leading Receiver: Cameron Meredith (1 Year) Continuity Score: 3.3 out of 10
Front Office: Ryan Pace GM (2 years) Continuity Score: 6 out of 9
Analysis:
It’s easy to see why the Bears have the lowest continuity score in the division. They went from trying a rebranding under John Fox, hoping that a culture change was all that was needed (it wasn’t), to more of a rebuilding this year. Like the Rams and Eagles in 2016, the Bears made a big bet to trade up for what they hope is a future franchise quarterback- so now this regime will be defined (and their further employment depends) on whether or not they were right about a guy with excellent physical traits, but only 13 college starts. Mike Glennon, who likely signed with the Bears thinking this was the best path for him to have a starting job, probably wasn’t thrilled about the pick- but hey, the NFL is the ultimate meritocracy. The best case scenario is that both guys learn from and push each other to be better. The worse case is summed up best by this expression: When you have two quarterbacks, you really don’t have any.
The bright spots from the Bears dismal 2016 year were the defense showing signs of improvement and Jordan Howard coming out of nowhere to emerge as one of the best young runners in the league. The hope is that both can still get better- though this is where giving up draft equity to get a quarterback can really slow progress. It seemed more logical for the Bears to just stand pat at #3, as they could have taken their pick of Solomon Thomas, Jamal Adams, or the-very-likely-to-still-be-there Trubisky while not giving up draft picks when their roster is in serious need of more talent. My hope here is that they just really, really like Trubisky, and in no way were they reaching for a QB out of desperation. By all accounts, he’s entering camp buried on the QB depth chart, which might be a clever way for this organization to defer scrutiny for their decision to draft him- you can’t get fired for drafting a bust if no one ever sees him play! Hmm- maybe the Bears know what they are doing after all.
In Part 4 I will break the NFC East, so be sure to follow me on twitter as I tweet out links to all my new Medium posts as soon as they are published. I’m happy to hear from you with any questions or comments, or even how completely wrong I am- I love a good debate. As long as I can tell you know what you’re talking about you’ll have my attention, I promise. And trust me, I can recognize when someone doesn’t have a clue.
