Probabilities of the 2021 California Almond Crop Forecasts and Estimates
To put the various 2021 crop California almond forecasts/estimates in perspective, we're exploring how the forecasts/estimates lie within the historical yield trends and Bountiful's April almond forecast probability distribution.
First, here's a recap of the publicly shared almond forecasts/estimates in order of release date.
In addition to the above yield forecasts, LandIQ released their initial standing almond bearing acres assessment of 1,323,722 acres on April 22, 2021.
There are two yield forecasts (Bountiful and USDA NASS Objective) that fall beneath the 3, 5, 7, and 10 year average California almond yield trends:
3-year average: 2,247 pounds per acre
5-year average: 2,220 pounds per acre
7-year average: 2,152 pounds per acre
10-year average: 2,177 pounds per acre
Wonderful's estimate is closest to the 3-year average trend. However, the USDA NASS Subjective is well above the 3-year average yield trend, which is the highest average yield trend.
Aside from yield trends, let's look at where these forecasts/estimates sit on our April almond forecast probability distribution based on our model assumptions.
The area under the purple curve is the posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is equal to 100% of the total yield probability. The peak of the posterior distribution curve represents the most probable value based on our model assumptions. The probability decreases as the curve slopes downward; you can think of the area under the curve representing the most likely probability.
The range of values within the yellow vertical lines on the graph represents our 68% credible interval. This range of values is split by Bountiful's April estimate on the chart above. The credible interval 2,029 to 2,354 pounds per acre captures 68% probability (area under the curve), with the peak being the highest probability. The actual yield for California state has been inside our credible interval four out of the last six forecasting seasons.
The posterior distribution is currently an internal tool we use to assess risk and is different from the range we show in the Bountiful platform. The Bountiful platform shows the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) from cross-validating our model. The MAPE represents how close our forecast came to the actual yield in a test environment.
The USDA NASS Objective Forecast is the closest to the peak of the posterior distribution curve, with Wonderful's forecast being the next best fit. The USDA NASS Subjective Forecast is outside the 68% credible interval, which holds the least probability within that range.
Further, with a free, Industry, or Farm subscription to the Bountiful platform, you can understand where Bountiful's crowdsourced estimate falls within the probability distribution. You can find the crowdsourced estimate on the Community page. Hint: it falls within the 68% credible interval as of the writing of this post.
Plotting each California almond forecast/estimate on our April forecast probability distribution represents how these estimates fit within our April forecast viewpoint.
Only time will tell as to which forecast is closer to the actual value.
By acting as a third party to provide early season yield forecasts based on data, Bountiful provides an agnostic number that eliminates sentiment-based bias, gives context to yield, and allows us to forecast multiple times throughout a season. We continue to provide the Industry's most accurate forecasts to facilitate better decision-making across the value chain.
For more information on Bountiful's perspective of the 2021 almond crop, check out our post on the 2021 Almond Crop Forecasting Season and Similarities to Prior Years.
If you'd like to get access to the lower, median, and upper yield bounds for Bountiful's April almond forecast or understand the community sentiment surrounding the various forecasts/estimates, sign up for a free subscription to the Bountiful platform and check out the Agriculture and Community pages.
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