How TCU’s offense is actually fueling its defensive woes
(Disclaimer: Time got away from me this weekend, so I didn’t have time to write my semi-usual 2,200-word column on TCU. Instead, you’ll have to make due with my short take on the Horned Frogs. I’m sure you’re all heatbroken.)
TCU just gave up the most points it has ever allowed at home in regulation under head coach Gary Patterson in a 52–46 loss to Oklahoma in Week 5, and solutions seems scarce.
For one thing, the Frogs are just not as good as everyone expected them to be on defense. They’re younger and less experienced on that side of the ball than people realized, and expectations were probably unreasonably high for the group coming into the season anyway.
To add to the trouble, the players TCU got back from injuries this season that were supposed to beef up the defense either haven’t seen the field (Kenny Iloka, Sammy Douglas) or haven’t played up to expectations (Ranthony Texada, James McFarland).
All of that culminated in the Sooners running for 260 yards. That’s the fourth-highest rushing total for a team against TCU in the last 10 years.
But the blame does not rest solely on the defense. The Frogs’ offense has also played a role.
Consider this: after TCU took a 21–7 lead in the first quarter against Oklahoma, it went eight straight drives without scoring a touchdown. Of those eight drives, the longest one lasted 3:20 and ended in a turnover on downs. Five of those drives were three-and-outs, all of which lasted less than two minutes.
That dry spell on offense also coincided with Oklahoma finding its rhythm offensively as the Sooners went on a 42–3 run. So not only was TCU’s defense getting throttled by the Oklahoma running game, but it would then be thrown back onto the field with barely any time to recover and no help on the scoreboard.
TCU’s offense, like its quarterback, has been extremely boom-or-bust this season, and the Oklahoma game was a microcosm of that. In the first and fourth quarter, TCU had six of eight drives go for touchdowns. But when they weren’t scoring touchdowns, the Frogs were usually off the field before fans could get back from the bathroom.
The Frogs’ up-tempo, pass-heavy style is part of what makes their offense so potent. TCU currently ranks №3 in the country in passing offense and №6 in total offense. They also rank №8 in the country in Bill Connelly’s offensive S&P+ rankings, if you’re into analytics (thanks to Bill, I now am).
But that pace is also wearing out the Frogs’ defense when the offense doesn’t stay on the field. If you throw a bunch of quick incompletions, and don’t move the chains, your defense is going to have more problems.
Make no mistake, TCU doesn’t have the talent or the experience on defense to face Semaje Perine and Joe Mixon for four quarters and not give up a good chunk of points. But those issues are exacerbated when the offense is inefficient.
What’s the solution? Well, there is always the “run more of the read-option with Kenny Hill and Kyle Hicks” strategy. The Frogs had 45 pass attempts compared to 29 rushing attempts against the Sooners. Not exactly a balanced attack.
It’s not a guaranteed fix. TCU averaged 2.2 yards per carry against Oklahoma after all. But abandoning the run game entirely is a quick way to make your passing game less efficient. Running the ball inevitably bleeds more clock, and it may help keep TCU from getting into as many 3rd-and-long situations.
The other thing the Frogs need is for Hill and his receivers to just be better for four quarters. There’s not really any other way to spin it. When they’re on, the passing game has been spectacular. But when things aren’t clicking, dropped passes and errant throws have resulted in quick drives with no points.
If that trend continues, an already young, undermanned defense will continue to feel the effects.
