DeFi Kingdoms Whale Watch and Key Analytics Report #7 — October 5, 2021
I am not affiliated with the DefiKingdom team and nothing in this report is intended to be financial advice and is strictly for informational purposes.
Hi DFK Fam -
Here is whale watch and key analytics report number 7. Snapshot was taken around 6:00am UTC on 10/5/21.
Most of you are here because you’ve been following these prior reports or are already part of the community and seeing this in the discord, on reddit or otherwise. For those who are brand new to DeFi Kingdoms or know nothing about this gamefi platform, please see the bottom of this summary for some helpful links to get you started on your journey (and welcome to the family).
I tried to create something meaningful w/r/t heroes held by the top 50 wallets but there’s currently no feasible way to track it from what I can tell via the Harmony explorer UI (but may change in the future, stay tuned). I do however provide some analytics on how many tears the top 10 wallets are holding.
Enjoy and let me know if there’s other info you think would be helpful and I’ll figure out a way to track it in the processes I run to generate the numbers. Once we hit 6 weeks or 8 weeks, I’ll probably do a report that shows month to month changes to get a bigger picture view.
-Discord: Samichpunch#2518
-Twitter: @Samichpunch
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WHAT IS THIS? This report focuses largely on xJewel wallets as wallets participating in the LP pools may not always be closely associated with the adoption of the game and are a bit outside the scope of this report — not to mention being nearly impossible to track without extensive time (which I don’t have). That being said, where there is big movement in the top 50, I am doing my best to track and see where that money is going (or coming from), including whether the funds come from or go to, among other sources, the Gardens. Yes, I realize that many of the top wallets also have giant bags in the gardens, but from a time perspective would be nearly impossible for me to track.
Time since last report: ~5.16 Days
TLDR:
Because this changes in the chart cover 5.16 days, including the launch of heroes, there’s a lot more movement than in prior posts and I’ll keep it to the highlights. 12 Wallets exited the top 50 since the last report, including the prior 7th, 11th, 15th and 22nd largest wallets, with the remaining 8 being in the the latter 25–50th positions ranging from 13k to 25k xJewel). Moby’s balance dropped a bit, but appears to have been Jewel transfer to other wallets, which I believe to be private party purchases of Heroes from others in the community.
Top 50 as a % of total xJewel increased about 10.23% while the amount held by the top 50 decreased by 3.12%, meaning that there were a lot of holders outside the top 50 that likely cashed out xJewel to mint heros. Moby’s vote power went from 7.45% vote power to 8.47% since the last report, resulting from the decrease of xJewel in general. Total xJewel decreased by a whopping 20% since the last report. This is a function of people purchasing 3M Jewel worth of heroes and also probably some people leaving the bank and its juicy returns and snapshots for what they see as greener pastures in the Gardens. Expect this xJewel circulation to increase as we approach the land airdrop snapshot.
The median xJewel wallet size decreased significantly by 24%, meaning that we are getting more and more smaller wallets joining the fray and staking in the bank, which I see as positive movement towards mass adoption.
xJewel Analytics
Circulating supply went down significantly as noted above. I believe this to be a function of the massive amount of Jewel spent on minting Gen0 heroes. Top 50 voting power went back above the 50% mark up to 58.75%. Because the Top 50’s numerical holdings actually decreased, this increase in vote power is the result of a large amount of people outside the top 50 reducing their balance (likely Hero minting). I could see that % moving back down as wallets outside the top 50 start summoning with their Gen0’s and making some more Jewel to put back into the bank. We’ll also see that go down a lot I’m sure as we approach the Land airdrop snapshot and people work to get back into the bank.
Increase in xJewel Wallets per day was around 80 wallets a bit less than the wallets per day increase since the last report (which was close to 100) but was much larger than the report prior to that which was around 45 per day. Keep in mind that xJewel wallets is not the sole indication of adoption by ANY MEANS. More on adoption below.
Bank Ratio Analytics
The 1.36% change is daily change of more than 4x larger than the prior daily change of 0.27% in the last report. This is over a 5 day period as well, which is impressive. Obviously the biggest driver here is that juicy 10% of minting fees that went straight to the bank, not to mention the crazy amount of volume we’ve been seeing on the Dex that has pushing Jewel about $2.00. The average daily change was in the ~0.3% range prior to Gen0 launch, so once we have the Tavern and Summoning live, I would expect us to continue to stay about that ~0.3% mark, but probably not near the 1.36% daily rate that resulted from the big influx from Gen0 Hero minting. Assuming the recent 1.36% average increase per day to the ratio, you’d be looking at a 497.21% increase over the year, but again, I don’t see that daily rate sustaining.
Also have included here a metric to show you how much the ratio has increased on average since the launch of the project, which means if you had put Jewel in the bank on Day 1, your Jewel balance would have increased by about 1.08% per day since (~396% APR using very simplified math). Note that these annual estimates continue to go down every report, this is a reflection of the fact that the % increase to the ratio was quite a bit higher during the initial weeks of the project.
I’ll continue keep an eye on how this changes as we move into Phase 2 and the launch of Hero NFTs, but if the Gen0 minting is any indication, the bank continues to be a very viable strategy to stake your Jewel without risking impermanent loss or the complexities of providing liquidity for those that don’t want to delve into that world, not to mention the fact that all bank rewards are immediately usable and not subject to any lock.
Jewel Analytics
Jewel circulating increased to increase at the same pace likely from claimed garden rewards, payments to the dev team, etc. Top 50 as a % of that total remained relative stagnant, meaning their economic position remained roughly the same since the last report.
Adoption Analytics Work in Progress
Median wallet decreased by 24%, meaning more and more smaller wallets are entering the bank. My personal thoughts are that if we are seeing more and more small wallets staking in the bank, we are starting to capture the larger population and not just the whales staking thousands. Its not until we start to see all the smaller players joining the game and staking/providing LP with their earnings from playing the game that we will pick up the real steam towards mass adoption. With 414 new xJewel wallets since the last report, this means most of the wallets were on the smaller end to push the median down by 25%. Average wallet size also decreased dramatically, this is likely the result of the Gen0 mint where a lot of people were able to participate in that middle band of holders, but pushed their balances lower.
Another metric I want to start tracking is unique wallets that interact with DFK in past 7 days per DappRadar. We’re up a nearly 30% in 7 days, which is huge! Lastly, the most recent 100 profiles as of the time of this report were created in ~10 hours, up from ~11 hours from the last report. Will be great if we can see this dip into single digit hours, which would mean we are getting new profiles at a more rapid pace.
Top Wallet Movement
Wallet Names: I’ve decided to move away from naming various wallets, although I am getting a good sense of which ones are dev wallets and otherwise and will only refer to the top wallet as Moby. Otherwise I will refer to all other wallets as “Wallet xyz” or “Prior Wallet abc”.
Moby decreased holdings by 2.63%. While that doesn’t seem like much, it was 30k xJewel (or nearly 45k Jewel as converted). Based on Tears that Moby received initially, it looks like they probably minted around 14 Gen0’s.
Top 10 stayed in their same positions for the most part with the exception of Wallet 7 being new to the crowd.
Wallets 22–33 had a lot of red and probably went Hamsky minting Gen0 heroes. For example, Wallets 22–36 minted 24 heroes alone, that would account for the large part of their balances.
12 Wallets exited the top 50, which were all across the board (not just bottom 10–20 of the top 50 like prior reports). Again, a lot of this movement is thrown off by Gen0 minting, but I will take a look at a few of the top wallets that completely exited, for surely it was not all due to Gen0 minting.
Big Plays
Moby — for this report, nothing additional to add to the above. Has not taken any money out of the system from what I can tell and is all in on heroes, which I see as bullish, especially when they could probably take some serious profits at Jewel’s current price and still have a substantial stake in the game. However they continue to HODL and are gearing up for summoning and questing.
Falling out of the top 50:
In the interest of time I’ll just hit on PRIOR Wallets 7, 11 and 15.
- PRIOR Wallet 7: Doesn’t look like they purchased any Gen0 heroes, instead they took some serious profits after having purchased Jewel at the very beginning of the launch. Let me put into perspective how early they were, the ratio of ONE to Jewel for their first big buy was 0.89:1, meaning that they paid 0.89 ONE for every Jewel. Let me put that into perspective again, the ratio of ONE to Jewel as of this report is 11.65:1, meaning it costs 11.65 ONE to buy just ONE Jewel. They also had other big purchases when the ONE:JEWEL ratio was in the 3’s. Nothing wrong with taking profits and its healthy. Even with them taking their profits (nearly $175,000 worth of ONE at the time of this report) Jewel price continues to rise. I hope people realize how early it still is for this game, and do not be disheartened by seeing whales like Wallet 7 that made serious money. Good for them, but we are all still very early to this show.
- PRIOR Wallet 11: Another profit taker. They DCA’d in over the course of 8/4/21 to 9/2/21 and decided to take some profits like Wallet 7. Also no hero purchases.
- PRIOR Wallet 15: Wallet 15 got in on the first night, aped in a very large amount, 10x’d their money between bank ratio rewards and Jewel price increase and exited. No hero purchase.
I have to highlight again, this was the complete exit of 3 very large wallets and it did not crash or impact price more than a little blip here and there in the price. You can’t fight mass adoption!
Welcome to the Club:
Too many new wallets to the club for me to analyze them all, and frankly most of them are in the 40–50 range, meaning they were probably on the cusp before and now simply moved up. I will take a look at Current Wallet 7, although their meteoric rise to the top 10 isn’t very exciting.
- Current Wallet 7: So it looks like this is owned by or affiliated with Current Wallet 9 as most of the Jewel held by Wallet 7 came from Wallet 9. They each purchased heroes (3 by Wallet 7 and 6 by Wallet 9) for a combined 9 heroes if it is the same person.
Other Big Increases
- Current Wallet 10 — increased by a whopping 368%. They purchased 3 Gen0 heroes.
- Current Wallet 13: increased by 151% They purchased no heroes.
- Current Wallet 14: increased by 152%. They purchased 1 hero.
Based on transaction histories, I think it likely that all three of these are likely Dev wallets. You might think of this as a negative, but honestly I think the exact opposite. First of all, I have no affiliation with the Dev team so I have no incentive to sugar coat this, but Dev’s obviously get paid from their work right? Many of them probably quitting secure, full time jobs to work on this project, the ultimate “aping” or risk if you ask me. How many of you would quite your full time job to work on a project when 99% of new crypto projects end up failing? With that out of the way and understanding that these people have to get paid, I think it positive to see them staking that into the bank. They could sell and make some wild profits, but they chose to stake it in the bank. If they think that putting int the bank is a good financial decision, I’m not sure what other kind of indication you’d want to see of how bullish this project can get.
I’m not going to go into further detail other than note that I think these are Dev wallets and have no interest in even attempting to try to pinpoint which dev might own which wallet but do think its helpful to see some transparency so long as they are in the top wallets. I also don’t intend to do a Dev wallet tracking report, only to the extent they fall within the large wallet parameters that this report is intended to capture and are making moves.
Tear Holdings by Top 10
To wrap this one up, I thought it would be helpful to see what the top 10 wallets are doing w/r/t Gaia’s Tears since there will likely be a gap between when summoning is available and when questing is available (which will be the source of Gaia’s Tears for the most part). Two purchased, three sold and 5 did nothing. Not much to take away from that but you can see that Moby is stacking tears while several are taking advantage of the high Tear prices. Depending on where you think this will go (i.e. if questing won’t be available for some time, then there could be a big shortage of tears), whereas if you think the Dev’s won’t let that happen, you could make some pretty Jewel by cashing out some of your tears.
Prior Whale Watch Reports
Whale Watch Report #1 — September 21, 2021
Whale Watch Report #2 — September 22, 2021
Whale Watch Report #3 — September 23, 2021
Whale Watch Report #4 — September 24, 2021
Whale Watch Report #5 — September 26, 2021 (Governance Highlight on Voting Patterns of Top 50 Wallets)
Whale Watch Report #6 — September 29, 2021
What is DefiKingdoms
DeFi Kingdoms is a game, DEX, liquidity pool opportunity, market of rare utility driven NFTs, and it all plays out in the nostalgic form of fantasy pixel art.
