Academy Awards Brouhaha: 2020 Vision
Dig around in this post and you’ll find a link to all my prior editions.
I love this time of year. I hate that it’s happening the day after my Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs, but what can you do?
I’m just gonna dig right into it. 2019 was a pretty fun year for movies. I can’t say it’s my favorite, but it’s high on the list of the last decade. I tweeted out my favorite 10 movies of the last decade (2010–2019) and there were quite a few legitimate contenders from this past year. The big box office crowd-pleasers were fun, the awards-bait dramas were high quality; I saw a lot of them in theaters and had a lot of fun doing it.
So, let’s start with the Best Picture nominees. I’ve seen 7 of the 9 already, so I think I’ll have a lot to say:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Parasite
I haven’t seen Marriage Story yet, but it’s on Netflix, so I have plenty of time. That will require being in the proper headspace, but I’m sure I’ll get there at some point. I also haven’t seen Little Women; mostly I’ve just been putting it off, but I’ll get out there soon. I WANT to see it; there are tons of tremendous actresses in it. But, of course, it’s a period piece based on a novel I never read, so that’s tough.
I REALLY liked all the others, though. I mean, there really isn’t a dud in the bunch! Ford v Ferrari is just good fun; it won’t win, but it deserves its shot. The Irishman is everything everyone’s been saying: it’s long and it’s great. The acting is tremendous, the story is compelling, I was never bored. It’s everything you want out of a Scorsese movie.
Jojo Rabbit was a surprise for me; I didn’t think it would get any noms outside of maybe Screenplay. I’m happy it’s in there, though, as it’s probably in my Top 2 or 3 movies of the year. I’m not shocked Joker is in there, though I know a lot of people are. I thought it was fine. I think my opinion has been tainted by the total and complete backlash from a certain segment of society, to the point that I’m exhausted by even thinking about it. I think the director’s idiotic comments in promoting the movie when it was first released totally hampered any reasonable critical discourse. It went from a quality Scorsese homage to some cheap Scorsese rip-off as a result; it was one of the movies of 2019 I was most excited to see, but it ended up one I just never really want to think about again. Had I not been as influenced by the haters, I think I’d hold it in higher regard, but what can you do? 2019 is what it is, in every respect.
1917 is freshest in my mind, as I just saw it last Friday; I thought it was remarkable, and a clear contender for the big prize. If I had to guess right now, I’d say it’s either this one or The Irishman, so it’ll be interesting to see where it goes from here. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is next-freshest in my mind, as I just re-watched it a week ago. It’s so damn good, I wonder if this isn’t an opportunity for a make-up award for Tarantino (who probably should’ve won Best Picture for Pulp Fiction or Inglourious Basterds).
My absolute favorite movie of 2019 — and one that DID make my Top 10 of the decade — was Parasite, and I’m thrilled to see it here! It’s definitely a dark-horse candidate for Best Picture (as well as a mortal lock for Best Foreign Film). Without a clear, true, overwhelming favorite, I just wonder if enough people have seen Parasite. I’ll tell you this much, the buzz has been 100% positive since its release, and I can’t envision a scenario where there’s any sort of awards season backlash. The only way it won’t win is if enough people believe that it CAN’T win, and opt to put their votes to movies they think are more deserving than Joker or Ford v Ferrari, for instance.
Since my choice (and personal favorite) never wins, I’ll go ahead and put my money on 1917 (that is, until I get a good look at the Vegas odds, closer to showtime).
Lead Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
I have only seen two of these performances. My personal favorite is probably Leo, but I’ll put my money on Joaquin (who I also really enjoyed). I did think Adam Sandler was snubbed here, but that’s not totally shocking. I can’t imagine I’ll ever see Pain and Glory or The Two Popes, so they will forever be a mystery to me (for what it’s worth, I’ve heard nothing but excellent things about Banderas, so it would be fun if he took the prize).
Lead Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
I’ve only seen Bombshell, and of the five, I think Theron has the lowest chances of winning (she was fine, but it’s hard to feel for someone who totally bought into the Fox News ethos for so long). Saoirse Ronan is always my personal favorite, because she’s fucking wonderful and brilliant, but I have my doubts that she’ll win. Zellweger won the Globe, so she’s automatically the favorite; Awkwafina was snubbed, which is a bummer. My guess is Zellweger will sweep this one too, though I’m not ruling out ScarJo or Cynthia Erivo.
Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
As I said before, I haven’t seen The Two Popes. I really meant to see the Mr. Rogers movie, but the timing was bad for me. Of the rest, I think Pacino and Pesci cancel each other out, leaving Brad Pitt as the winner. Pitt won the Globe, where all five were also nominated, so this makes sense. He’s my personal favorite as well.
Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Double-Nom for ScarJo! Plus Endgame, plus her own Marvel movie very soon! What a time to be alive! I don’t think she has a chance for this one, though I liked her character very much. I also don’t think Robbie has a chance, in spite of also having a terrific year. I felt like Pugh should’ve gotten a double-nom for her role in Midsommar, and right now she’s my personal fave. I like Bates as a dark-horse, but this one probably goes (sight-unseen) to Dern.
Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
You can’t give this to Phillips when he’s doing a Scorsese impersonation, with Scorsese ALSO doing his best Scorsese impersonation! Since Scorsese has already won his make-up Oscar, I don’t see any urgency to give him one here for a poor man’s Casino (which was, itself, a poor man’s Goodfellas). Quentin is a dark horse, but he’ll probably go down as one of the great all-time Oscar snubs. This is between Sam Mendes and Bong Joon Ho. I want to give the edge to Mendes, but Parasite was so great I could easily see it going the other way. Maybe the two films split Director and Best Picture?
Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
I haven’t seen The Lighthouse, but I have to believe this is a two-movie race between 1917 and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, and I’m giving the edge to 1917, both as my favorite and as my pick.
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
My favorite would be Jojo Rabbit, and I do think it’s a dark horse. If a quasi-comedy has a chance to win anything at the Oscars, it’s in the screenplay categories. Ultimately, I think it’s a two-movie race between The Irishman and Little Women, and I think the latter will get he nod.
Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
What a fucking LOADED category! It’s a crime that Knives Out wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, but at least it’s getting recognized here. I’ll put that in the dark horse realm. I think Marriage Story will get enough out of the acting awards to probably lose out here. I think it’s between Parasite and Hollywood, and I think Parasite wins in a landslide.
Visual Effects
Avengers Endgame
The Irishman
1917
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I’m going to start including this category in my Brouhahas going forward, as I feel like this is a de facto Best Popular Movie award. If it actually is, I like Endgame’s chances. But, seeing 1917 and The Irishman in there gives me pause. I never love the idea of this “de-aging” thing they’re doing in movies now, as it clearly takes jobs away from younger actors who would love nothing more than to make a name for themselves in bigtime movies like these. Anyway, it wasn’t totally distracting in The Irishman because the movie was so good. That having been said, even when they showed “young” De Niro, he still looked old. Him kicking the shit out of someone still looked like an old man kicking the shit out of someone. He’s been acting for however many decades; we’ve got a lot of experience watching him in films, we KNOW how old he is. No amount of CGI is going to cover up that fact. As for 1917, I know the whole one long continuous shot is a gimmick, but WHAT a gimmick! It turned what could’ve been a rote, competent war movie into something that continuously charged forward, leaving me on edge throughout. Also, from what I heard, The Lion King remake was a marvel of CGI … except for their expressionless faces when talking and singing and whatnot; I’ll be REALLY disappointed if this movie wins anything.
Finally, give me Toy Story 4 for Animated Feature. And clearly Once Upon A Time In Hollywood for Costume Design. Love those 60’s girls …
