Ahead of the Game: The 2019 Academy Awards Brouhaha
Check out last year’s post (and all the ones before it) to get my vibe. Truth be told, my vibe has probably evolved over the years, so I don’t know if I can totally stand behind some of those early posts, but here we are. It’s 2019, and I’m doing it!
I got really excited when I saw the nominations for Best Picture, because I’ve managed to see 7 out of 8 of them, which is remarkable for me, because usually around this time it’s closer to 2 or 3 out of 9 or 10. Let’s dig in:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
This is great; I’m NEVER this informed!
So, right off the bat, the one I haven’t seen is Green Book. It’s also sort of the one I’m most dreading, because it feels like the most Oscar-ish type of movie. Just beating you over the head with themes and whatnot. Don’t get me wrong, I’m GOING to see it — especially now that I know it’s the only one left before I complete the set, so to speak — but it’s probably the one I’m least-excited to sit through.
I just watched Roma on Netflix last Friday, so let’s start there. No, I didn’t see it in a theater, and no, I don’t give a shit. Yes, it’s beautifully-shot, as all of them are from Alfonso Cuaron, but I have a 65-inch TV, so I think I got the jist. It’s definitely slow, and I’m not sure the acting was all that remarkable, but I dunno, it hit me really hard when it was all over. I wouldn’t say it’s my favorite of the bunch, but it also wouldn’t kill me if it won Best Picture.
My favorite, oddly enough, is The Favourite, which almost assuredly won’t win the big prize, but was a God damned hoot! Talk about a movie that sticks with you: it’s got a great cast, is terrifically acted, and has a firecracker story that keeps the throttle slammed to the floor. Ultimately, it’s probably too dark to be taken as a serious contender, but it’s right up my alley.
The biggest surprise, in my book, is BlacKkKlansman. It came out in the summer — so we’re not talking about a prestige film that’s saved for the end of the year — it kinda flew under the radar (particularly when you compare it to something like A Star Is Born, which was a worldwide phenomenon), but I’m glad to see it here. I wrote about this before, it’s a VERY Spike Lee movie, so if you’re a fan (like I am) then it more than does its job. This is the first Lee movie I’ve seen since maybe Inside Man (though I couldn’t tell you what it’s about) or maybe even as far back as Bamboozled in 2000 (which I absolutely loved for the same reason why I enjoyed BlacKkKlansman), and I’d definitely rank it among his best. I don’t know if it’s Oscar-winning, but it could be a dark horse candidate.
Speaking of A Star Is Born, I’m not usually one for musicals; thankfully, this isn’t a musical in the traditional sense. It’s just a movie about musicians and singers who perform, which is more in my lane. That being said, I’m not the biggest Lady Gaga fan in the world, but you can’t deny her voice and her overall talent. I was hooked by the trailer when it was released, so I went to see the film pretty early on in its run. As with a lot of people, this was my first introduction to the movie (I haven’t seen any of the previous versions), but you could kinda see where it was going. This story has been told so many times before, in non-A Star Is Born venues, that it’s more paint-by-numbers than anything. I liked it up until the end. I’ve just seen that hard-ass manager character in so many other things before, and it was hard to buy it. He’s RIGHT out of rehab; he’s got the most clarity and happiness in his life than he’s had in a long time. Why would he off himself right then and there? It doesn’t make a ton of sense, but I’m not an addict, so what do I know? I thought the performances were great, and while I don’t think momentum is on this film’s side at this point, it could be another dark horse.
Truth be told, I thought the performances were even better in Bohemian Rhapsody, the Queen/Freddie Mercury biopic. Yeah, I get all the frustration from the superfans who were put off by historical inaccuracies. But, it’s a MOVIE. It’s not a documentary. And, ultimately, without Mercury’s involvement (because, you know, he’s dead) you’re never going to get 100% of the truth into this thing anyway. Just be glad the band gave their approval for the songs to be used, because otherwise this movie would be useless. And, while we’ve seen rock n’ roll biopics before, I thought the added wrinkle of essentially having a full 20-minute concert as the closer was brilliant! This movie won’t win Best Picture, but just to be nominated is pretty astonishing.
I recently saw Vice, which is very in the mold of Adam McKay’s The Big Short. I liked The Big Short better. Vice had a “too soon” vibe for me; I didn’t need a Dick Cheney biopic right now (I might’ve been okay living the rest of my life without one). The problem with doing a biopic about a prick is that you can show him doing all this evil, and you can even call him out on it while you’re doing it (which this film very much does), but he’s still the “hero” of the movie. He’s still the person the audience is going to side with, because he’s in every scene. In that sense, I think it does more to normalize Cheney’s actions as Veep than it does to condemn them, especially contrasted with the lunatic we have in office right now. “Oh, isn’t that quaint. Remember the good ol’ days when evil was done behind closed doors and we weren’t confronted with it on a daily basis?” Ultimately, I was just angry coming out of Vice, which is almost definitely what they wanted when they made it, but I don’t especially enjoy being angry at the movies. That being said, it was very well-acted, so my hope would be to see some awards fall into that realm.
Finally, what more can you say about Black Panther? I saw it opening weekend, I bought it on blu-ray and re-watched it over the holidays. The Oscars were tinkering with bringing in a Best Popular Movie category, I believe specifically so they could ensure Black Panther’s involvement in the broadcast, much in the same way they extended Best Picture’s nominees from a flat five to 5–10 after 2008 (when The Dark Knight was snubbed and the masses flipped out). Since 2009, when Avatar, District 9, and Up were all nominated (to ensure higher ratings from the general public), “popular” movies have been few and far between. And, I’m not talking about nominees that made a lot of money; I’m talking about popcorn flicks. Toy Story 3, The Martian, Mad Max: Fury Road, Get Out, and that’s about it. Over the last decade, the Academy has taken the increased number of Best Picture slots and essentially nominated more of the same artsy-fartsy crap they always nominate. Which is fine, but don’t then talk out of your ass about wanting higher ratings or more inclusion of movies the bulk of the people enjoy.
I like Black Panther. I very much agree with the decision to nominate it for Best Picture. I also think a Popular Movie category is a good idea. We can have both! Just like we have a Foreign Language category; that doesn’t preclude you from nominating Roma for Best Picture as well! People freak the fuck out about the dumbest shit sometimes.
Without having looked at the Vegas odds, I think your winner is coming from one of these four: A Star Is Born, Green Book, Vice, and Roma. If I had to cut it down to a two-film race, I’d say it’s either Green Book or Roma. I know Bohemian Rhapsody won the Golden Globe for Drama (and somehow not Comedy/Musical), but it’s hard to take that one seriously, what with all the chaos surrounding its director and the critical backlash and everything. Green Book won the Globe for the other Best Motion Picture category, and I think that’s probably going to be my prediction here.
Best Director
Roma
The Favourite
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Cold War
So, essentially what I’m saying is, we’re going to see another split. Usually, Best Director and Best Picture go hand-in-hand, but a weird year deserves a weird result. The Roma director won the Globe, so he’d be my favorite at this point. You know I’ll be rooting for everything involving The Favourite, but I think it’d be cool to see Spike Lee finally get his due. I also think it would be entertaining if Adam McKay got up there and mucked it up with his speech. Really hard to mess this one up this year.
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Glenn Close feels like a mortal lock at this point (she won the Drama Globe). Colman won the Comedy/Musical Globe, so I’d put her in the running, but I don’t know if I’d put my money on it. As for the rest, feels like a Just Happy To Be Nominated sitch. I did think Gaga was MUCH better than expected, but she feels like a longshot. I do really want to see both The Wife and Can You Ever Forgive Me?, though. They sound amazing.
Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Malek (Drama) and Bale (Comedy) won the Globes, so again I’d put them in the top 2. For this one, I think Malek has a strong case, but Bale is probably our best living actor at this point, so he’ll be tough to beat. Cooper is a darkhorse, but I can’t imagine him winning. My pick and my prediction is Malek.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
This one is totally up in the air. For starters, I was surprised that Beale Street wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. I haven’t seen it, but that’s another one that feels like it should’ve been in there. Anyway, my concern is that the two nominees for The Favourite will cancel each other out (my pick would be Weisz, but they were both fantastic). I didn’t love de Tavira’s performance in Roma, so honestly I’m surprised she’s in there. Adams is nominated every year, but this role didn’t pack the usual punch. Honestly, I think King could win this one in an upset. Then again, King did win the Globe, so maybe it’s not THAT big of an upset.
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
I don’t get why Sam Elliott is nominated. This is probably the dumbest nomination of the entire slate. Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther 100% should’ve been in this category, and what’s more, he deserves to win the whole fucking thing! As it stands, the fact that Elliott is in there at all, and he’s an old white man who’s never won an Oscar, you have to make him at least a contender. I can’t see Rockwell going back-to-back in this category. My pick is the same guy who won the Globe, Mahershala Ali.
Cinematography
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Cold War
I actually REALLY liked the cinematography in A Star Is Born and am glad it’s nominated here, but you have to give it to Roma. It’s just unbelievably beautiful.
Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
I feel like, if The Favourite gets shut out of all the major categories, they have to give it up here. Then again, whoever doesn’t win between Green Book, Roma, and Vice will have a serious case.
Adapted Screenplay
A Star Is Born
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A Star Is Born will get best song, so it probably doesn’t deserve this one too. I haven’t seen Buster Scruggs and I don’t really want to. It would be cool to see Spike Lee win this one as well, but I feel like Beale Street gets this one to make up for the lack of a Best Picture nom.
Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks The Internet
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2 is probably one of the favorites to win. I haven’t seen Isle of Dogs and I don’t really want to. It would be cool to see Ralph Breaks The Internet win this one, but I feel like all the momentum is behind the Spider-Man cartoon for being totally and completely delightful.
February 24th, we’ll find out the winners. I haven’t been this excited for a group of films in years!
