Does Rishi Sunak have a chance?

Even the biggest underdog can pull off a shock upset. The problem is that the best that Sunak can hope for is a hung parliament. That won’t be enough to save him or the Conservatives.

It’s been a few days since I published my first article asking why on earth Rishi Sunak decided to call an election he’s almost certain to lose. Instead of waiting until the latest possible time, January, he opted to hold it on July 4th, coincidentally USA’s independence day. Perhaps he’s hoping that most people will be focusing on the electoral fireworks taking place in America between old foes Joe Biden and Donald Trump and lose interest in the British election. Perhaps he’s hoping that Donald Trump will make enough of an impact to inspire disinterested and turned off Conservative voters to think again, and give the Tories one last chance after 14 years in power (albeit the first 5 were shared with the Liberal Democrats). Maybe he’s hedging that if there’s a spell of warm weather, people will think more about BBQs and picnics than a trip to the ballot box for what seems a predetermined result. Whatever his motivation is, Sunak is relying on the hope of the underdog, of pulling off a huge upset, an upset that would make Trump’s 2016 win over Hillary Clinton seem like a minor surprise. But even if Sunak pulls off a miracle, he will still lose.

Let us see where Sunak may be getting his hope from. First of all, let’s start with the statistics. While the polls consistently show that Labour are more than 20 points ahead in the polls, these polls can change and narrow. For example, the newly formed Reform party, who have many disgruntled ex-Tories, are polling at over 10%. If all of those Reform supporters switched to the Tories, we’d have a much closer race indeed. Another reason for Conservative hope is the psychological mountain that Labour still have to climb. The magic number to win a majority is for a party to have 326 elected MPs (members of Parliament). Labour start the election with only 205 MPs, whereas the Tories have 345. The last time Labour overturned such a big deficit was in 1964 under leader Harold Wilson. The Conservatives themselves last achieved a similar swing under Ted Heath in 1970. But since then, the electorate has gradually moved from one direction to another. Sunak can take comfort from the fact that there have not been any big swings, except in the expected mid-term elections. Finally, there is the pro-Conservative media, something I will write more about in my next article. Most of the British press are desperate for a Conservative government and do whatever they can to make sure this happens. A good example is The Sun. The Sun has not lost an election since they actively entered the politics game in 1979. Whoever they choose has yet to lose. Let’s take a look at the damage they caused to Labour with the headline in 1992.

Tied in with Labour infighting, like whether to allow Dianne Abbott or Faisal Shaheen to stand, it’s easy to see why pundits rarely bet against the Tories. This won’t work this time however. Polls don’t lie, and have remained stubbornly the same. Moreover, the argument about Reform switching to the Conservatives won’t work. It’s because the Tory faithful are so sick of their party that they’ve moved there to begin with. And many Reform supporters are also ex-Labour. Many of these people are bitterly upset about what happened to Boris Johnson, and what they see as Sunak’s betrayal of him. If there was a nail in the coffin, it was Liz Truss’ ill-fated 5 week reign.

If Sunak had waited another 6 months, he possibly could have proved that his policies on the economy, immigration, the cost of living and so forth were working. But this early election puts to bed any chance of that. Even if Johnson had stayed, the signs are he would have struggled. The Liberal Democrats may be 4th in the polls, but they have consistently done well in traditional rural Tory seats since Boris came in, winning 4 by-elections and doing well in council elections. They will take a lot of new seats from the Tories. Meanwhile, while The Sun have yet to back the losing horse, they haven’t always won. 2015 was really a draw before the Lib Dems felt pressured to join the Tories in a coalition. And The Sun are willing to swap sides like they did with Tony Blair. Even Sunak’s own team admit their hope is for a ‘hung parliament’. What’s a hung parliament? It’s when no party reaches that magic number of 326 MPs. No party will have a majority. But after 14 years of rule, that won’t help them. No party will get into bed with them now, not even Northern Ireland loyalists. And that’s the best-case scenario.

So to conclude, Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives will need a seismic political upheaval just to break even. The voters may not be enthused about Labour. Nor are the biased media. But this was never about Labour. It was about the Tories, and getting rid of them, at least for now. After 14 years and the debacle of Liz Truss, one thing almost everyone can agree on is it’s time for a change. Maybe if Sunak had waited, he might have had more of a chance. But he didn’t. Sometimes it’s a case of too little too late- in this case it’s too little too soon.

I’d love to know what you think. Feel free to write in the comments below.