Predictions for the British Election
650 seats are at play. Here’s my forecast for each party. We’ll find out Friday if I’m right.
Now it’s Britain’s election fight night. The moment of truth. We know Labour will win. But there’s so many questions that will be answered on the 4th of July. Just how badly will the Conservatives do? Will the Lib Dems sneak into second? Will Nigel Farage shock the political establishment? And will the SNP hold on in Scotland? Thursday’s vote will be less about the winner, but more about how everyone else places, a fight for the scraps.
Since the campaign began, I’ve done a lot of talking (or should I say writing), about what will happen. The time has now come to predict exactly what will happen. That may seem easy, especially because we know the victor. But what’s nearly impossible to predict is how the spoils will be divided.
So let’s break it down with some simple maths. There are 650 seats at play in the British election. However, 18 of those are in Northern Ireland. They rarely play a roll unless there’s no majority like when Theresa May’s Conservatives won only 317 seats in 2017(see below). Let’s look at the results from the last 2 elections of 2017 and 2019.
