Mid Year Tennessee Fundraising: The GOP is In-Fighting, the Dems are Gearing Up
As I said in my last article, while last quarter’s fundraising was instructive, they were of limited utility both due to candidates not having announced and, especially, because incumbent legislators were barred from raising due to the legislative session ongoing.
Well, we have had 3 good months of fundraising data where everyone is running, if not at full steam, then at least at a steady pace. So, what has three months of campaigning shown? Well, glad you asked.
Republicans Have a Lot of Primary Challenges, and are Spending a Ton on Them
Now, I’m going to do a fuller breakdown of the primaries in the future, but understandably, the most recent fundraising elucidates those races.
And looking on the Republican side the only conclusion is that there are A LOT of them. By my count, there are 20–22 primaries that can be described as “hotly contested” (depending on how you see the interesting the S2 race as well as a few cases right on the line), much more than typical.
The Senate, in a proportional sense, is where these contests are, and there’s a pretty uniform rhythm to them. Sens. Lundberg, Duncan Massey, Niceley, Haile and Gardenhire are all long-serving pro-business relative moderates from the eastern half of Tennessee. And they all have challengers on the right who have raised 5 (and in one case 6) digits to beat them. The one with the most media coverage is Bobby Harshbarger’s challenge to Sen. Lundberg in the far northeast’s S2. Harshbarger is the son of US House Representative Diane Harshbarger, and has used $200k of what I assume to be mommy and daddy’s money to match Sen. Lundberg’s warchest built up over a nearly two decade legislative career, leading to a campaign where nearly $450k has been spent, the most expensive race so far, which has led to mutual ethics complaints.
But the most interesting to me is Chris Spencer’s challenge to Sen. Haile in S18, centered in the Nashville suburbs of Sumner County. For those of you who don’t know, Sumner County’s GOP is divided between a core of hard rightist “Constitutional Republicans” and functionally the rest of the party. And this race has functionally become a test between these two factions, with several conservative heavy weights, including the Constitutional Republican faction itself, washed up musicians and weird greasy Californian grifters, to fight to “flip” this seat. And the fight has escalated to the point where the two sides have raised $550k and spent nearly $400k of that. These are the two to really watch to see which way the GOP is going on election night.
As for the House, there’s quite a bit more variety. First, there are several retirements (compared to the one in the Senate) which have created wide open races such as WilCo’s H65, a three way race between relative moderate Williamson Co. Commissioner Brian Beathard (who has the endorsement of outgoing moderate GOP Rep. Whitson and the County establishment), hard line Moms for Fascism advocate Lee Reeves and failed Davidson Co. candidate and carpetbagger (having just lost an expensive House race in Nashville only two years ago) Michelle Foreman, who is roughly somewhere between the other two politically. Money being not a real thing in WilCo, all have raised high five digits, with the former two reaching six digits, for a total of $403k, comparable to a competitive Senate Race.
Then there are the primary challengers. There are of course plenty of classic conservative upstart vs. established incumbent races; examples include the challenge to Rep. Stevens in LaVergne’s H13 by Murfreesboro Councilwoman Jami Averwater (incidentally someone I went to law school with) and Michele Reneau’s challenge to Rep. Hazelwood in suburban Chatt’s H27. However, in the more radical chamber, there are a few where the challenger appears to be coming from the center. These include ex-Madison Co. Mayor Jimmy Harris’ challenger to Rep. Todd in Jackson’s H73, which has already cost $320k, and Anderson County’s Rep. Regan in H33, where ex-Clinton Police Chief Rick Scarborough has the endorsement of a significant part of the County establishment.
As has hopefully been made obvious, there are a lot of legitimate primary challenges costing a lot of money. Specifically, Republicans have spent $1.1 Mil. in the Senate and nearly $2 Mil. in the House. Which is interesting because…
Most Republican Incumbents Aren’t Hurrying to Raise Money
What’s interesting is that, regardless of whether there is a Democratic challenger, the general trend this quarter is for GOP incumbents to take it easy. Most of the money on the GOP side is being raised in contested primaries. For example, of the $1.4 Mil. that GOP Senate candidates have raised this quarter, nearly a third was raised in that S2 fight, while that S18 race composes 20% of everything GOP Senate candidates raised, meaning two races dominate >50% of the fundraising. Meanwhile, of the 99 House races, the primaries in H27, H65 and H73 compose 10% of the GOP’s $2.3 Mil. raised each, meaning nearly 1/3 of GOP spending happened in 3 of 99 races. And those aren’t even the only 6 digit whales this quarter.
So, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction; if these whale races are so disproportionate, what does that imply for the other races? Well, particularly (though not exclusively) in the House, incumbent GOP members are chilling, at least as it relates to direct contributions. A couple of incumbents, such as Rep. Sparks in H49 in Smyrna and Rep. Fitts in Roane Co.’s H32, just haven’t raised anything. Meanwhile others, such as Rep. Lynn in Mt. Juliet’s H56 and Freshman Rep. Burkhart in Clarksville’s H75, have raised amounts in the low 4 digits this quarter. All of these have eaten to some degree into their war chest, with others, like Chattanooga’s Rep. Helton in H30 and Memphis’s Sen. Rose in S32, eating into their respective chests to the tune of 5 digits.
However, in isolation, that’s not really a huge issue. Take for example Rep. Haston in H72. He only raised $4,000.00 while spending $7,600.00, eating into 10% of his < $30k war chest. However, H72 is a +65% Trump district, and Rep. Haston is the only person running at all, primary or general. He can afford to dip into his chest a bit. And, frankly, if some of that money is going to more competitive races, you can make the argument it is even helpful, buoying those more important districts. However, not every incumbent is in a situation like Rep. Haston, and this is important because…
Key Dem Challengers are Outraising and Spending Their Opponents
The thing is, this anemic fundraising by GOP incumbents is occurring in both +60 Trump districts where they can sit back and relax, and +10 Trump districts where a strong challenger and/or one with crossover appeal can pull out a win. And, on the Democratic side, pretty much everyone in with an opening is doing well in fundraising, particularly in the House.
And for some, this is to an absurd degree. Take H75’s freshman GOP Rep. Burkhart. He has raised $1,500.00 this quarter (and therefore this year, considering the ban on fundraising during session) and spending $3,920.00, meaning he’s simultaneously burning his war chest and not doing a ton. Contrast that with Dem challenger Allie Phillips. Due to her national profile, she has raised nearly $320k this year and spent $61k, meaning she’s outraising her opponent, outspending him, and, at $194k to $76k, has about 2.5x his war chest. Meanwhile in H49, Dem challenger Luis Mata has raised $100k since he started his campaign this year, and has spent about $30k of it. During that same time, sitting GOP Rep. Sparks has literally $0.00 and spent not terribly more than that, with Mata more than doubling Rep. Sparks’ war chest as well.
And stories just keep going like this. In Knoxville’s H18, Dem challenger (with significant crossover appeal) businessman and former UTK swimmer Bryan Goldberg’s $80k haul over the course of the campaign has forced sitting Rep. Davis to loan herself $11k to keep up in this only +6 Trump district. In Shelby Co.’s H97, the one Biden district with a sitting GOP Rep., Dem Challenger Huseth outraised GOP Rep. Gillespie by $3,000.00, as the later is weighed down by an (admittedly weak) primary challenger and his treatment of police shooting victim Tyre Nichols’ family.
Even in districts that are reaches, particularly in the Nashville suburbs, numerous Dem challengers are running enough to, at a minimum, make the GOP work and, even if unsuccessful (and they could be successful), lead the way for more competitive rematches or other challengers. In Hendersonville’s H45 (Trump +33 and shifting quickly), Dem Alison Beale has raised $17k this quarter (compared to Leader Garrett’s $11k), and $55k total. If she were running against someone who wasn’t one of the leaders of the supermajority with a $300k war chest, she’d probably have spent more and had a bigger war chest than her opponent. In LaVergne’s H13 (Trump +11, also shifting fast), challenger Yancey has raised $12k, enough to position himself well after the slog of a GOP primary ends. While I hear anecdotally that Allison Gorman has some issues, in Chattanooga’s H26 (Trump +25), she has raised $20k, enough to force the incumbent there to work. Next door in H27 (Trump +19), Dem challenger Kathy Lennon has raised $30k while the GOP slogs it out in a $200k primary challenge.
As I’m writing this, I don’t want to keep repeating similar stories, but to demonstrate the pattern, here is a list of challengers who nearly or did raise 5 digits in districts that either have some outside potential to flip or otherwise are rapidly shifting:
- Anna Backus in Oak Ridge’s H33 (+29 Trump with an expensive GOP primary and unpopular incumbent);
- Lexi Melton in Gallatin’s H35 (+36 Trump);
- Joni Cochran in Lebanon’s H46 (+45 Trump);
- Ailina Carona in Mt. Juliet’s H57 (+31 Trump);
- Claire Jones’ $100k haul in Brentwood’s H61 (+21 Trump, money truly isn’t real in Wilco);
- Laura Anderson in Franklin’s H63 (+27 Trump);
- Clarksville Councilwoman Karen Reynolds in S22 (+13 Trump, the only real potential Dem flip in the Senate);
- Noah Nordstrom in Shelby Co.’s H83 (+7 Trump, while Rep. White has injured himself with this voucher stuff, Nordstrom’s failure to speak to the center against someone who is still known as a moderate to some degree is concerning); and
- Teri Mai in Spring Hill’s H92 (+40 Trump).
Even if none of these individuals win, there is still utility here. First, obviously, this forces money that would otherwise go to other competitive seats to stay in-district. However, on a more long term basis, the presence of a legitimate challenger capable of reaching voters means that people moving there can get activated in ways they otherwise wouldn’t be. Moreover, the potential for a strong campaign makes people more comfortable coming out of the woodwork and supporting Dems outside of merely voting.
Now, of course, not every single Dem in every single marginally competitive district is doing what they need (the number of “Safe Rs” in my rating changes below is sufficient evidence of that). But more of them are doing things right than in any year since I’ve been politically active. If this trend broadly continues, there is a real chance for some surprises. However, it is important to note that, being not only the party of big business but also the party in the supermajority, interest groups who indulge in independent spending will overwhelmingly help the GOP, which almost certainly will cover this difference to some degree. And independent spending brings up an interesting question…
Who is Funding All These Primary Challenges to Black Dems?
If you were to look purely at amounts raised by campaigns, there are only two interesting Democratic primary races, the open seats H60 in EastERN Nashville (not East Nashville, there’s a difference) and H96 in Shelby Co. (which, side note, are both interesting in distinct ways which I’ll explore in a future article).
As I noted in a previous article, all challenges but one on the Democratic side this year are against black Dems. That one, Green Hill’s H56, as predicted, is coming to nothing (my current district, by the by, where, yes, I am actively supporting Rep. Freeman in the interest of full disclosure) . The Vandy RA appearing to have raised $1,000.00 from family back home in the Northeast while Rep. Freeman is essentially treating the primary as a way to train his campaign muscle in a non-threatening environment and hauling in $90k in donations he absolutely does not need to win. None of the non-incumbent contested Dem primaries, outside the two previously mentioned.
And to just look at the fundraising numbers, the supposed challenges to black Dems came to naught. All of them have raised at or close to $0, with the highest being Knox. Co. Committeewoman Dasha Lundy’s haul of not even $1k against Black Caucus Chair Rep. McKenzie in H15.
However, the facts on the ground bely this notion. I, a minor Democratic functionary two hours from Chattanooga, am getting emails from Demetrius Coonrad, who is challenging Rep. Hakeem in Chattanooga’s H28. The aforementioned Dasha Lundy is playing ads on TV in Knoxville, something you can’t do at just $1k. And in both, the SEIU has seen fit to throw it’s weight in and endorse the sitting members against these challengers.
So, what gives?
Well, with Ms. Lundy, we can at this moment trace the source of at least some of her money. Team Kid is the political arm of Tennesseans for Student Success, a pro-voucher group. And if we look at their expenditures this quarter, they provided direct contributions to some sitting Republicans (or their PACs) and made independent for multiple GOP primary candidates… and Dasha Lundy, to the tune of nearly $8,000.00.
So, the answer for everyone appears to be “independent outside expenditures” generally, with Ms. Lundy’s source conformably being “charter school PAC money” within that designation. Coincidentally, that also means that no good Democrat in their right mind should vote for Lundy.
But the question remains, how many of these sleeper challengers are out there? And who is funding them? Is it even the same groups funding each? There appears to be at least one other, Coonrad in H28, with Shelia Godwin’s challenge to Moderate-to-Conservative Dem Rep. Shaw in H80 being another good candidate. In the state of Tennessee, there doesn’t appear to be good way to find these answers, and dark money super PACs make that a doubly-difficult venture. So, for now, don’t be surprised if some seemingly weak challengers end up with a surprising vote share.
School Board Seats Might be the Dems Way to Outright Victory in the Suburbs
A final note: the elections in August are not just for state and federal primaries; they’re also for county and some city general elections. As far as cities go, with the Murfreesboro race, where Democrats (nominal or otherwise) could sweep, being particularly interesting.
However, I want to focus on school board races, because something interesting is happening. As you might know, it has only been recently, as a result of Moms against Liberty intriguing, that counties can have partisan school Board races.
What’s interesting is that, as far as I can see, there are at least two Democratic School Board candidates with support from sitting Board members. In Williamson County’s District 9, Shandus Parish has the endorsement of outgoing Board member Rick Wimberly (who it should be noted was elected in a time before he had to declare his party). In Sumner County’s District 9, in a three way race with a Republican challenger and an independent incumbent, at least one sitting Republican School Board Member has crossed lines outright to endorse Democrat Holly Cruz (who would be, I belive, the second or third Hispanic School Board member in Tennessee history). There may be more, and I’d love to know, but two is certainly enough to show a pattern in this scenario.
I think I am pretty safe in speculating that backlash against both Moms for Fascism-esque book bannings and the recent voucher push has left public education as a real Democratic wedge issue in the suburbs. To the point that there are multiple opportunities for Democrats to win outright in these Nashville ring counties. I know access to live School Board results isn’t as easy to find as, say, state House races, but watch out. These may very well be the races that uncork the “voting for Dems” genie in these Counties.
Ratings Changes (All House)
Now, to determine which districts these numbers more or less settle. Of course, we have three months, this stuff is eternally subject to change. Regardless, these are mostly stretches for the challenging party where the challenger is not showing enough signs of life to be even conceivably viable. Once the primaries are done, I should be able to color in all the races. All that said,
- H6 (Johnson City): Democrat Brad Batt has raised only $1,600 this quarter against an incumbent with 6 digits in a +40 Trump district. Safe R.
- H8 (Alcoa) The two Democrats are doing *fine*, but in a near +50 Trump district, you need to do better than *fine.* Safe R.
- H15 (Knoxville): Regardless of what happens in the Democratic primary, the only Republican on the ballot has raised literally $0 in this near +40 Biden district. Safe D.
- H16 (Knoxville): the Democrat in this district has not even raised $200 in this +35 Trump district against an incumbent with over $150k. Safe R.
- H20 (Maryville): an open GOP seat, there are several GOP candidates who have proven their fundraising power in this shifting but still +40 Trump district. Meanwhile, the only Dem hasn’t raised $200. Safe R.
- H24 (Cleveland): $4k as a Democrat in a +48 Trump district won’t cut it, regardless of who ends up winning the contested GOP primary featuring Rep. Raper (yes, his real name). Safe R.
- H29 (Chattanooga): sitting GOP Rep. Vital has a $300k war chest in this +30 Trump district. His challenger raised $4k, not the worst I’ve seen but not enough against such an obstacle. Safe R.
- H34 (Murfreesboro): a district with potential (only +13 Trump) where the incumbent has had to spend money on an expensive primary. Unfortunately, the Dem challenger has squandered this, barely raising $2k and showing no interest in appealing to swing voters. Safe R.
- H37 (Murfreesboro): one of the closest districts in Tennessee (also +13 Trump), but represented by Rep. Baum, one of the most moderate GOP members (so much so he voted against the TN 3 expulsions) with a near $200k war chest. The dem hasn’t raised 1% of that. Safe R.
- H44 (Portland): the reddest district in Sumner Co. represented by Majority Leader Lamberth, a Rep. with $425k. You need a lot to overcome this. Unfortunately, Dem Brian Robertson (a guy I tend to like personally) hasn’t even raised $5k total. Sorry Brian. Safe R.
- H49 (Smyrna): Dem challenger Luis Mata has raised nearly $100k to unseat longtime Rep. Sparks. Despite this being obvious since March, Sparks has raised literally nothing this year. In one of the state’s closest districts and quickest changing areas (Trump by not even +11). Tossup.
- H52 (Nashville): all challenges to Rep. Jones’ credentials are settled and we’re left with a +40 Biden district with a Dem incumbent who has a national profile and a million dollars. Safe D.
- H52 (Nashville): South Nashville Rep. Powell’s two challengers (one GOP, one independent) have raised a combined $0 in this +30 Biden district. Safe D.
- H64 (Columbia): In a hotly contested GOP primary against incumbent Rep. Cepisky, the two GOP candidates have raised a combined $100k. In the… contested Dem primary, the candidates have raised a combined $4k. Safe R.
- H65 (Franklin): The Most Republican district entirely in WilCo, with it’s worst fundraiser on the Dem side at not even $2k, doesn’t really matter who wins this marquee primary. Safe R.
- H75 (Clarksville): Take what I said about H49, make it a just +5 Trump district, trade Allie Phillips for Luis, Rep. Burkhart for Sparks, “longtime” with “freshman,” and “$100k” with “$200k.” Tossup (and that just barely).
- H88 (Memphis): already a stretch as a +45 Biden district, Dem Rep. Miller’s GOP challenger started this quarter with a defecit, raised $100 and finished with a stunning $3.77 in his account. Safe D.
- H94 (Fayette/McNairy Co.): a +45 stretch in the opposite direction from H88, the Dem challenger has raised literally $0. Safe R.
- H97 (Memphis): challenger Jesse Huseth is raising tit for tat what Rep. Gillespie is in this only district in TN Biden won currently represented by a Republican. And Rep. Gillespie has to spend some of that early on an (admittedly weak) primary challenger. Tossup.
- H98 (Memphis): again, already a stretch, in this +40 Biden district the GOP challenger has raised $0 while Rep. Parkinson has taken the challenge seriously enough to nearly triple his (admittedly small) war chest. Safe D.
