Exploring Undernourishment: Part 4 — Research Area 1: General Trend

A Visual Data Exploration Research Project to Better Understand the Nuances of Our Global Nutrition

Image Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations

Contents

This is Part 4 of an 8-Part research project aiming to better understand the nuances of our global nutrition. It explores this topic through the utilisation of data visualisation and data science techniques. It is complimented by a Web App: ExploringUndernourishment, which is freely available to the public.

Part 1 — Introduction and Overview
Part 2 — Literature Review
Part 3 — Data Exploration
Part 4 — Research Area 1: General Trend ← Selected page
Part 5 — Research Area 2: Most Successful Countries
Part 6 — Research Area 3: Surprising Trends
Part 7 — Research Area 4: Most Influential Indicator
Part 8 — Recommendations and Conclusions

Research Area 1: General Trend

In order to ascertain the general trend for the data, three levels of analysis are included, segmented by their level of granularity. Firstly, the overall Global trend is included and analysed. Next, the data can be segmented by region and reviewed in isolation from all other regions. Lastly, individual countries can be reviewed, and their respective individual trends can be seen in isolation from all other countries.

Overall Trend

The aggregated score for all countries combined is displayed to the right. The actual scores for the Prevalence of Undernourishment are indicated in the green colour, while the linear trend is displayed in blue colour. The actual trend indicates a steady and consistent decrease between 2001 and 2012, showing an overall decrease of approximately 0.03. The trend plateaued between 2012 and 2016, with minimal decrease in the score. Then, 2017 saw an increase in the score in the first time since the data collection began; and 2018 saw an even higher increase. This trend is expected to continue in 2019.

Figure 9: General Trend: Global

Regional Trend

When segmented by Region, the data tells a different story. In the plot to the right, the linear trend is maintained in blue while the actual values for the selected region are indicated in orange. The drop-down box at the top allows for the selection of different regions, so that the trend for just that region can be viewed.

The following observations can be made:

• The Asia & Pacific region indicates the most consistent and steady decline over time, with no indicated increase in scores.
• The Europe region also shows no sign of increasing. Albeit there have been some years along the way that have seen some minor increases, the overall trend for the region is in a positive downward direction.
• The Arab States region shows an impressive decline before an incredibly sharp increase between 2012 and 2013, then the general trend continues to 2015 before plateauing and then increasing in 2018. This step change can either indicate a change in the data collection methods, or a change in the countries being recorded (an addition or removal of a country).
• The Africa region shows the smoothest transition of all regions, with a healthy decrease until 2014 before swinging to a steady increase since.
• The South/Latin America region shows a trend typical to the others, with a steady increase to 2017 before plateauing in 2018.
• The Middle East region is the most shocking of all. It shows a sharp, drastic drop in the score to 2004, before showing a sigmoidal shape with its trough at 2012, then showing a strong, steady, unhealthy increase every year since. This shape indicates a lack of political willingness to change this curve, and poor governmental policy across the region as a whole.

Figure 10: General Trend: By Region

Country Trend

This Plot shows the trend specific for each individual country. The drop-down selector can change the country as required.

Some key call-outs include:

• Iraq indicates a strong sigmoidal oscillation between 0.3 and 0.26 with wavelength of 10 years.
• Lebanon indicates a consistent upwards trend every single year.
• Yemen has seen a dramatic increase since 2012. It is this score that has substantially influenced the score for the rest of the Middle East region.
• Each of the countries in Asia & Pacific region show positive decrease in scores. Except for countries like Brunei, Taiwan, DPRK, Malaysia, Maldives, and New Caledonia which indicate unstable and inconsistent scores.
• In the Central African Republic region, most of the countries have kept a consistent and impressive decrease in their score over time. Except for countries like Chad, Congo, Eswatini, Gabon. These countries have seen an increase in their scores over time, and some remain quite high indeed.

Figure 11: General Trend: By Country

Findings

The Global trends have been decreasing consistently in the last 20 years. This is a positive sign, and for the most part, the regions and countries have also been improving. There are a couple of exceptions to this trend, and this has caused the positive downward trend to plateau and begin to increase in recent years.

In their recent publication The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, the UN has addressed this recent bucking of the trend, and have attributed this to economic slowdowns and turndowns across the Globe. It can be seen that some countries have suffered a lot, and their Prevalence of Undernourishment score has been substantially impacted as a result.

Read On:

Previous section: Data Exploration
Next section: Research Area 2: Most Successful Countries