Complex and Chaotic domains of the Cynefin Framework
This article continues with the overview of the Cynefin Framework. If Cynefin is a brand new concept for you please check the starting article “1999–21st Century: Connecting the Management Landscape with the Cynefin Framework”. Here the focus will be on the Complex and Chaotic domains, but before we start it needs some brief introduction.
Much of 20th-century management was run with a rationalist mindset, operating under the assumption that situations could be understood, analyzed, and planned. However, with the rise of software projects in the 1990s, a new problem surfaced: the existence of Complex systems characterized by a vast range of dimensions of freedom, with non-deterministic cause-and-effect relationships.
This prompted the invention of a new management paradigm that is today called Agile, which allowed us to handle a wider array of situations that were beyond the reach of conventional methods. A brief retrospective of Agile provided here “1990–2010s: Agile Management in 5 minutes”.
The discovery of this uncharted territory of the Complex domain led to a skyrocketing in the popularity of the Agile paradigm, sparking an ongoing Agile Transformation track in management.
As with any geographical exploration, these new territories gradually became more developed and understood. Over time, we will find that all problems solvable with Agile approaches will indeed have been addressed, urging management to adopt a sharper perspective when selecting methods.
The Cynefin Framework partitions the management landscape into territories of Predictability, Complexity, and Chaos. The land Predictability has been explored in the previous article titled “Clear and Complicated domains of the Cynefin Framework”. Now, we’re ready to continue our venture into the intricate territory of Complexity.
Cynefin: Complex Domain
The Complex domain is characterized by the concept of Unknown-Unknowns, where Cause-and-Effect relationships are only understood in retrospect (C↩E). There are factors influencing the outcome that can’t be known upfront, and you don’t know how many of these factors there are, or what effect these factors will produce.
An analogy is Team Sport Games: Hockey, Football, Basketball, Volleyball, and so on.
The mode of operation in the Complex Domain is Probe-Sense-Respond:
― Probe: A coach begins the game with a selected lineup and initial strategy, understanding that these plans will likely require adjustment based on the game’s dynamics.
― Sense: As the game progresses, the coach observes the team’s performance, the opponents’ tactics, and the condition of their own players.
― Respond: During game breaks or by calling a timeout if necessary, the coach adjusts the formation, substitutes players, and modifies the team’s strategy to better adapt to the unfolding situation, all with the aim of securing a victory.
The management in the Complex domain is also characterized by Emergent Practices. After a series of matches, a coach will likely develop a preferred team formation to start a game. However, in contrast to the Chess practice of “controlling the center”, this strategy remains dynamic.
This overall approach is well depicted in the film “Miracle” (2004), which notably illustrates the concept of Cause-and-Effect relationships being understood only in retrospect.
In the movie, Coach Brooks pioneers a radical approach to train his team in a hybrid style of hockey. He combines the physicality-focused North American style with the pass-emphasizing Soviet style. Brooks’ approach prioritizes team play over individual play, a strategy many initially didn’t understand or agree with.
The Soviet team, comprised of seasoned professionals, had dominated international play during that period, winning gold in five of the previous six Winter Olympic Games. In stark contrast, Brooks planned to compete against them with an amateur team of college players, a strategy that naturally drew significant criticism.
However, in the game against the Soviets, the U.S. team was able to keep up with the Soviet team’s passing and maintain their physicality, ultimately leading to their victory. This decision, questioned at first, was only fully appreciated after the “Miracle on Ice” was achieved. It was in retrospect that people understood the genius of Coach Brooks’ strategy.
Examples of management methods applicable to the Complex domain include Objectives and Key Results (OKRs), Scrum, Deming Cycle (PDCA), Kaizen.
Take OKRs for instance: Setting Objectives for a Quarter is a Probe (assumption; experiment). The metrics of Key Results (Sense) will show if these goals are feasible or impossible, meaningful or irrelevant. Some of them (Respond) could be Canceled within a Quarter; some will show a dead end, some could be successful and so should be used as a baseline to advance in the next Quarter.
While the Complex domain requires a fundamentally different management approach compared to the Predictable (Clear; Complicated) domain, it is still a manageable zone where goals can be achieved. However, in the next territory, the Chaotic domain, both Predictable and Complex strategies become irrelevant due to the unique and volatile nature of Chaos.
Cynefin: Chaotic Domain
The Chaotic domain, marked by the realm of Unknowables, is a space where Cause-and-Effect relationships are fundamentally unpredictable or non-existent (C↛ E). There are situations where reasoning is not applicable at all and things just happen, randomly. These situations often unfold as a ‘crisis’ or ‘emergency’, characterized by severe turbulence that makes conventional management methods not applicable.
A theory and physical reasoning about Chaos is briefly covered in a preceding article titled “2020s: Chaos (has no) Management in 5 Minutes”. It also covers some ideas of management in Chaos from the Cynefin Framework.
Eventually, chaos can lead to the invention of Novel Practices — something brand new that hasn’t been seen before. For instance, the COVID-19 lockdown compelled businesses worldwide to transition to a full-scale remote work approach. This approach may not necessarily be the best for all businesses, but some continued to operate this way even after the COVID-19 era because it fit their business model. While remote work was feasible before, a full-scale adoption experiment likely wouldn’t have occurred without the push provided by COVID-19.
An example of a crisis situation is vividly portrayed in the movie “Apollo 13” (1995). The phrase ‘Houston, we have a problem’ signaled the shift into a chaotic state. A routine space mission quickly became a critical situation when an oxygen tank exploded, leaving the crew in immediate danger and making their planned mission impossible. The response from Mission Control was to act decisively, canceling the moon landing and working out a plan to safely return the astronauts to Earth. Other notable movies that provide examples of chaotic situations include “Titanic” (1997), “Deepwater Horizon” (2016), “Hotel Rwanda” (2004), and “127 Hours” (2010).
The mode of operation in the Chaotic Domain is Act-Sense-Respond:
― Act: Trust your instinct. Get out of the immediate danger zone.
― Sense: Once temporarily safe, assess the situation and determine next steps.
― Respond: Take action to move your problem to a manageable domain, such as Complex.
In essence, the Chaotic domain requires us to abandon the usual way of managing things and make immediate actions to stabilize the situation.
While Chaos doesn’t lend itself to traditional, structured management strategies, preparation for crisis situations is crucial. Management in this domain is less about constructing a predictable path forward, and more about moving the situation into a safer, more manageable domain. A range of methods like the Incident Command System (ICS), Disaster Recovery (DR), and Business Continuity Planning (BCP) are designed specifically to prepare for such situations.
Examples of management methods applicable within the Chaotic domain include Crisis Management and the Cynefin Framework itself.
Take Crisis Management for instance. It fundamentally relies on designated response teams, who are tasked with immediate and decisive action during emergencies. This urgent intervention is the Act step within the Chaotic domain. The priority here is to stabilize the situation, bring it back under control, and ensure the safety of all involved. Once this immediate action has been taken and safety is ensured, subsequent steps of the Act-Sense-Respond cycle can be applied to move the situation towards a more manageable state.
Summary
With the Clear and Complicated domains covered in the previous article and the Complex and Chaotic domains discussed in this one, we have largely completed the basic overview of the Cynefin Framework.
The one major piece of the model left to discuss is the state of Confusion, where you don’t realize in which domain you are at the moment. The Confusion state embodies the essence of the Cynefin philosophy: we need to learn how to ‘make sense of the world so that we can act in it’ (quote, Prof. Dave Snowden). And this is the topic for the next article.
