Dom’s Comms: Week 7— Shot Timing
When referring to “shot timing”, what does this mean? Simply put, it’s the time between a player's first touch and their shot — as Jon Mackenzie (@Jon_Mackenzie) outlined in both his thread (below) and a Tifo Football podcast (available on Spotify), whose work inspired this piece.
But, why is “shot timing” important? Well, there are a lot of contextual data points that now surround shots, things like the destination (is it on target, wide, etc.), location (formed via an x- and y-axis), and xG (the likelihood, as a %, that the shot will end as a goal), with the first two combining to aid the latter. There’s an analytical underpinning to evaluate and predict the outcome of a shot.
But, an area that isn’t publicly scrutinised, partly due to the technical requirements for data collection, is “shot timing”. Jon’s work across the Premier League (for the 2023/24 season) outlined how each of the “primary forwards” for every club in the league perform on a timing basis, with equal provision on their touches before shooting.
There’s a correlation between shot timing and the number of touches a player takes before shooting. Intrinsically, touches require time to be taken, and thus, if you take more touches before releasing a shot, the “shot timing” will reflect this.
To answer the above question, “shot timing” is important as previous research, such as the work done by Dominic Haynes (@Dominic_Haynes on X), found that throughout the last three Premier League seasons, 80% of goals have come from 1–2 touch shots (60% one-touch and 20% two-touch). If there’s such a distinct relationship between goals and touches, why isn't shot timing explored with more interest?
Most importantly though, how does this all relate to Leicester City? Well, of the clubs' 525 shots in the Championship this season, I’ve analysed 358 of them to outline whether…
a) Leicester City mirrors the statistic that 80% of their goals come via a one-touch or two-touch shot
b) Does Jon’s analysis of PL forwards represent lower-level forwards?
c) Which current player takes the highest proportion of one-to-two touch shots?
d) How can we profile playing style through touches/shot timing?
e) How do other positions interact with touches and shots, what is their “timing”?
Before we explore the data, I should quickly explain why 167 shots have been removed from my analysis. Firstly, two kinds of shots weren’t to be included from the get-go, headers and dead-ball shots (free-kicks, penalties, etc.). The reason for this is that for the timing to be relevant, the sequence requires an “open play” shot, hence the removal of dead-ball attempts, while headers are almost exclusively one-touch, and therefore didn’t seem relevant.
So, of Leicester’s 74 Championship goals, 24 haven’t been included. Of these, 10 are due to being scored by a header, 12 of them are from the penalty spot, and one of them is a free-kick — Stephy Mavididi vs. Huddersfield Town. The only other goal not to be included was Leif Davies’ own goal (in the 1–1 draw, at home, vs. Ipswich Town).
However, the above criteria would have only omitted 112 shots. Instead, there are an additional 55 shots that I wasn’t able to analyse due to footage. A pre-requisite of this analysis was having video footage of a shot, and due to working with only free/open source video footage, I was able to cover most of Leicester’s shots this season, but I did miss out on 55 (10.5%) shots.
Let’s investigate.
To start with, I wanted to speak on the idea that 80% of goals come via one-touch or two-touch shots. There’s an important distinction, as the research (by Dominic Haynes) for this percentage included all types of goals. So, the 23 goals removed from my data set (minus the OG) would all have been included and are also all one-touch shots.
For this season, Leicester City scores 78.4% of their total goals via one-touch or two-touch shots, if we limit this purely to the sample size of the data set, that number drops to 70%. While this number is fairly relative to previous research, it isn’t representative of how the Foxes have scored all their goals this season — there’s a sizeable percentage of goals scored with 3 or more touches.
If we transfer this to the current Premier League season, Jon Mackenzie was kind enough to provide me with his data frame, and for the 20 current “primary forwards” they have scored a total of 99 goals. Of these, 72 came from either a one-touch or two-touch finish, totaling a percentage of 72.7%.
This indicates another slightly lower (%) total than initial research found but indicates a clear pattern between goals and few touch finishes. If teams can create lots of good quality one-touch or two-touch shots, and they have forwards capable of finishing them (i.e. their technique isn’t hindered by striking the ball quickly), that’s a recipe for success in elite football.
Above, I added a table that outlines each of the included Leicester City players with information on their; position, total shots, touches per shot (p/shot), 2-touch time, and % of shots (that are 1–2 touch).
To speak on some definitions, “2-touch time” refers to the timing taken between a setting touch (first touch) and the shooting action (second touch), which is used in the prior research as it’s a — somewhat—level playing field to examine players by. Most two-touch shots have similarities.
I wanted to start with the “FWD” position for the Foxes, which provided four players; Jamie Vardy, Kelechi Iheanacho, Patson Daka, and Thomas Cannon. It’s a fairly small sample size of shots (ranging from 12 to 23) but is enough for simple analysis and comparison with Jon Mackenzie’s PL “primary forwards” findings.
A starting point is the “Touches p/shot” metric, as this can paint an image for a player's profile. There’s a Leicester player who drastically differs from the others and that’s Iheanacho. To consider him a generic #9 would be doing his well-rounded, ball-to-feet aesthetic a disservice, and there’s no clearer representation of that than taking almost 3 touches per shot.
If you compare this with the three other options, Iheanacho is a touch heavy forward. Whereas, Daka and Vardy take minimal touches (1.28 and 1.4 respectively) before shooting — whilst also being the top two for “% of their shots that are one-touch or two-touch”. There’s a correlation to how a player(s) try to create shots for themselves, or position to receive either for a one-touch or two-touch shot.
Let’s dissect Jamie Vardy’s “Shot Map”. The 90% one-touch shots are evident, but as I’ve highlighted (in blue), look how central his attempts are. There’s a 15.59m range, slightly left of centre, that Vardy will exclusively shoot first-time. I’ve created a few of these “Shot Maps”, and his is the most distinct for location and touches.
Of course, when shooting from this central zone, Vardy will have service in a multitude of fashions. It could be a cut-back cross, a penetrative pass beyond the defensive line, or a simple pass to feet. Irrespective of how the chance is fashioned, Vardy is exclusively looking to limit the time taken to shoot and works a one-touch shot. It’s incredibly impressive and also reliable.
But for that one-touch shot dominance, he isn’t the player with the highest % of 1–2 touch shots in the Leicester City side, nor of the “FWD”. That title is given to Patson Daka.
Of the Zambian’s 18 shots (in the analysis), 15 of them are one-touch (83.3%) and 2 (11.1%) of them are two-touch — combining for a total of 94.4% of his total shots. Interestingly, the only 3+ touch shot in the database comes from his only shot outside the box. If we show a carry/touch chart below, that will add some additional context.
Here, we can see the shots that required at least a setting touch, or more, before shooting. As Daka only attempted 3/18 shots with a touch before shooting, there are only three carries included. The “3+ touch”, which was a total of four touches (vs. Leeds United [A]) is the deepest Daka came to receive and then shoot as his final action.
If you recall the game, it’s the shot to Illan Meslier’s top-left that the Frenchman tips over, and Wout Faes scores from the resulting corner. A bit of a “nothing chance”, and quite clearly out of character for Daka, yet it inadvertently aided the Foxes to score. More as a by-product than anything else.
What is even more noticeable, is that despite scoring seven goals this season in the Championship, four of which have been included in this analysis (the other three coming from the penalty spot), Daka has been inside the six-yard-box for three of them (scoring with a one-touch shot) and a small carry vs. Plymouth Argyle (H) to finish with a two-touch shot.
Talking about two-touch shots, Thomas Cannon has the quickest 2-touch timing for releasing shots, requiring just 0.75 seconds between his setting touch and shot. What’s equally as impressive is he doesn’t sacrifice or limit the quality of his shooting mechanic by releasing fast, he’s got very good (or clean) ball-striking.
Neither of the two “primary forwards” (Daka/Vardy) has scored with a shot that required more than either a first-time shot or a setting touch. But, as was evident in the first table, there is a different profile that plays as an unconventional #9 for the Foxes, in Kelechi Iheanacho. How does his shot map look?
Well, it’s definitely filled with more 3+ touch shots, especially from the edge of the box — fairly similar to Daka’s only 3+ touch shot. Like Daka, and also Vardy, Iheanacho’s shots inside the box are predominantly one-touch (53.8%) or two-touch (38.5%), but his only 3+ touch (carry) into the penalty area ended with a goal.
I’ve highlighted two distinct clusters of shots, those inside the penalty area and those from outside, to illustrate a clear difference in how the Nigerian creates openings for his shots. A striker needs to take shots quickly in the area, as it’s the most claustrophobic space on the pitch, but when Iheanacho drops to receive, he’s happy to create chances via lots of touches.
But…as the above chart shows, when Iheanacho is taking 3+ touches before shooting, he struggles to carry the ball into the penalty area. The one time he did, vs. Swansea City (A) he converted the shot into a goal. However, not to overcomplicate, there’s an important distinction between his 3+ touch goal and the efforts from the edge of the box.
When looking at averages, Iheanacho takes 4.41 seconds between the first touch and the shooting touch on his 3+ touch shots, significantly higher than every other Leicester City player…
To profile Iheanacho’s 3+ touch shots, he’d represent more of a winger. Inside Enzo Maresca’s system, the wingers are tasked with receiving the ball (entrance to the final third) and carrying it into dangerous locations, either to create a chance or to shoot.
Because of the in-possession structure (the 3–2–4–1), which moves the RB into a central double pivot, Abdul Fatawu — who features as the right-side winger, plays as an isolated figure in the right channel. On the left, Stephy Mavididi is supported by the rotational role of the LCB/LB, which places two separate players in the left channel, thus pushing his natural positioning higher.
You might ask, what’s the relevance of this? Well, if you compare the two players’ “Shot Map(s)”, and also their “Carry Chart(s)” you can see this distinction emerge.
I’ll start with Fatawu, who plays as a de facto RM.
I’ve highlighted an “active zone” that features a lot of the wide-players shots. I’ve also added a notation that states, 62% of his total shots follow a 3+ touch carry, which is drastically different from the profile(s) we’ve previously mentioned, and is a reason I’ve looked into the entire squad — not just strikers.
In the “active zone”, there are a lot of 3+ touch shots, as he receives wide-right and punctures (via a carry) towards an area around 20 yards away from the opposition goal.
This is made clearer by the above “Carry Chart”. You can see a deeper right starting position, where he collects possession and you can then see his “active zone” where he likes to shoot the ball. Analysing slightly deeper, Fatawu needs to diversify his shot portfolio, inverting onto his stronger left has net positives (quality of the shot, utilises his stronger actions), but predictability limits his output.
I’ve spoken before about the strongest profile in modern football, which I’d suggest is ball-carriers especially from depth, which Fatawu has. But, if you give the opposition a read on your next action, something the Ghanaian has started to inadvertently do (predictable), you’re easier to defend. If he runs the byline more and creates — which wouldn’t show on a “Shot Map”, he’d have more joy on the shots from his “active zone” — less coverage from defenders, etc.
I started this section by talking about how differently the two “wingers” profile via their “Shot Map(s)” and “Carry Chart(s)”, so let’s see Mavididi’s.
Straight away, I want you to acknowledge a closer to goal “active zone”. Both players have (rounded) 62% of their shots created by 3+ touch carries, but the Englishman is converting this into better chances — and also scoring from them, with five of his seven goals coming from this zone.
In terms of possession receptions, it’s not dissimilar to Fatawu’s. He does tend to receive (from the centre) closer to the corner of the penalty area, whereas his wing partner exclusively converts wide territory into shots.
But, this has to be the clearest representation of the asymmetrical wing roles for the two, Fatawu as a deeper right-side presence (or as I’ve termed it an RM), while Mavididi resembles a more traditional winger. As an aside, I had to highlight the ridiculous carry vs. Southampton (A) which was a total of 69.2 yards from his first touch to his shot (8 touches — with a timing of 9.12 seconds)
The last player I want to highlight is Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Despite being a central midfielder (or high #8), is joint second for goals in this analysis (with seven), and second in the Championship for Leicester (with ten) behind Jamie Vardy (13).
His raw data places him toward the lower-middle of the pack for squad rankings, the above list is ordered alphabetically. “Touches p/shot” is at 2.75 (15th of Leicester’s 19-man squad), “% [of] shots [that is] (1–2 Touch)” is at 51% (or 0.51, ranking 16th), “2-Touch Time” is 1.08 seconds (14th), and “Shot Timing (3+)” is 2.72 seconds (14th).
Ranking “low” isn’t vindictive of quality, it’s just about profiling a player via touches and timings. Dewsbury-Hall doesn’t rush his shots and looks to work an opening — averaging 2.75 touches p/shot, before shooting. But data aside, let’s see if the “Shot Map” and “Carry Chart” can’t help illustrate his profile.
Probably the most versatile shot portfolio of all the Leicester City players I have analysed — which given the more “well-rounded” role of the high #8s isn’t overly surprising. Like others, his shots from the edge haven’t resulted in goals, but the highlighted zone (in green) shows all of his 7 tracked goals.
For a left-sided player, his “average shot width” is fairly centralised, but all of his goals (in this analysis) have come left of centre, towards the left half-space. Impressively, KDH also boasts three fairly close-range (goal-side of the penalty spot) 3+ touch goals, which hasn’t been seen in the other “Shot Maps”. How has he carried the ball to get into those scenarios?
He has a couple of deep carries, but a predominant number of his receptions are slightly advanced in the left half-space. He converts this into entering the penalty area (at a good rate) but likes to try his luck from the periphery of the penalty area — left of the “D”.
For a player with the license to play close to the #9 (as he’s effectively a second striker at times — especially OOP), to take 49% of his shots with 3+ touches is an excellent description of his profile. A ball-carrier. A very good one at that.
There we have it. A lot of images, trying to contextualise the larger tables filled with data — feel free to pull apart any information from those as you see fit.
A big thank you to Jon Mackenzie, who started this discourse in January and turned a cog in my brain that forced me into collecting this data for all Leicester City games. His work is brilliant, not just on this subject, but in all areas of football.
I also apologise for the length of this piece but I hope it was a worthwhile read. Let’s hope that Leicester City returns to winning ways and keep your eye out for how many touches players tend to take before shooting (and scoring), perhaps that will validate the research of this article.
