Dom’s Comms: Week 8— Patson Daka
Patson Daka. A man who is splitting the Leicester City fanbase, frustrating large sections with his struggles in front of goal. If you’ve followed my work for some time (firstly, thank you), you might be aware that I highlighted him as a “potential successor” to Foxes talisman, Jamie Vardy during his spell in Austria.
For this reason, my judgment of his success or failures in the East Midlands could be misconstrued as biased, or sentimental. That’s not the case. For large portions of the Championship season, Daka has rightfully been Enzo Maresca’s first-choice forward, an impressive feat in a formation that only fits a single #9 with three capable alternatives.
However, that doesn’t mean I won’t talk about issues if they are there. In recent weeks, the Zambian forward has received increasing criticism for his inability to score “easy” chances, or for his tally of “big chances missed”, which is cited as evidence of his poor finishing.
But as a quick aside, this “metric” doesn’t provide the results some fans think it does. You should interpret it through the lens that it highlights players who can create good chances for themselves, either through movement, a pass combination, or a dribble.
A quick scan of the Premier League’s results (found at Sofascore), and the league’s top scorer, Erling Haaland (20 goals), leads with 30 “big chances missed”. Unsurprisingly, Ollie Watkins — second for goals (19), ranks third-highest with 19 “big chances missed”. Are you beginning to see the pattern?
Not to bang this drum too repetitively, but this also translates to the Championship data. Sammie Szmodics (24) and Adam Armstrong (20), the league’s top two scorers both rank in the top five for “big chances missed”, with 15 and 25 respectively. If you get a lot of “big chances”, you’ll score more goals than players that don’t.
Anyway, is the Daka criticism justified? Should fans expect more from a forward who’s played 1,071 league minutes, while some of his alternatives haven’t received the same share of opportunities; Thomas Cannon (414) and Kelechi Iheanacho (907).
With Maresca and his coaching staff, reviewing the “situation”, and the constant speculation from fans about dropping Patson Daka, I’ve decided to offer my judgment and analysis of the forward’s struggles in front of the goal, but also regarding his well-rounded profile compared to other #9 candidates.
Patson Daka: The high-volume scorer in the Austrian Bundesliga
Firstly, let's contextualise why the Foxes forked out approximately £25m on a 22-year-old in an “unproven” league in 2021, after two full campaigns.
In the 2020/21 season, Daka averaged a goal-per-90 (p/90) ratio of 1.24, and an equally impressive 0.26 goals-to-shot ratio (in other words, an average of a goal every 4 shots).
The youngster was instinctive, creative, and clinical in front of goal. Not to be categorised for a single type of finish, he was adept at scoring with either foot, but also adjusting his frame to turn hopeful crosses into headed goals.
It wasn’t just a single season either. In the 2019/20 season, he eclipsed Haaland’s output— scoring 24 goals in 21 games, at a goal-per-90 ratio of 1.15, whilst continuing to convert at a rate of 1 goal every 4 shots (0.27).
Underlying data-wise, Haaland was at 1.47 goals p/90, and a 0.28 goals-to-shot ratio, in just 980 minutes. The two of them we’re unstoppable. You can see why Europe’s elite had eyes on the city of Salzburg.
In Daka’s first season with Leicester City (2021/22 Premier League), his goal-per-90 ratio dropped significantly from its height of 1+ goals to just 0.39 p/90. However, by replicating his previous tallies, the Zambian would’ve topped the league’s data considerably, the top-ranking player (Jamie Vardy) ended the campaign with an impressive 0.75 goals p/90 ratio.
In a more difficult league, the scoring frequency (goal-per-90) will tend to drop. But what about efficiency (goals-to-shot)?
He only needed an extra shot (0.19 or 5 shots) to find the back of Premier League nets, which across the league placed him as the 11th “most efficient” finisher. In the squad, he was third. Vardy, again, topped the league (0.28) while impressive loanee, Ademola Lookman (0.23) ranked fourth.
Unfortunately, this slight drop in shots-to-goal efficiency would begin to escalate. This season, it takes Daka an average of 9 shots to score (0.11) in the Championship despite seeing an uptick in his goals p/90, with 0.59.
Throughout his career, he’s never been a high-volume penalty taker, scoring 1 domestic penalty before this season, whereas this year he’s already scored 3. If you look purely at his open play numbers, his goal p/90 ratio drops to 0.34 — which perfectly mirrors his average output for the club across his three-year stint.
So…what’s going wrong?
Patson Daka: The shortcomings of his profile & why it’s resulted in a negative trend
At his peak, Daka was always a high-volume one-touch shooter. What I mean by this, is that he favours releasing his shots without taking a touch, for the majority of his chances.
Of the goals I analysed before his move to England, 68.8% of them were scored first-time (this includes headers). If you add a “setting touch”, so it becomes a two-touch shot, the percentage becomes 85.2% of all his goals.
Impressively, it didn’t matter which foot it fell to. He looked ambidextrous in his technique, always trying to release his shot quickly to disorganise the defender and GK. What this did, was allow fairly central finishes to creep into the net. His portfolio of goals still included top-quality executions, but he upped his output percentages by shooting quickly.
In an almost ironic turn of events, it’s this trend that has started to cause him a lot of problems in front of goal. The data suggests that 80% of goals come from one- and two-touch shots, but only when technique and shot quality (or diet) aren’t reduced by shooting too quickly.
I feel that, currently, the Zambian international is rushing his shots and it’s negatively impacting the results.
Some might recognise the above chart from last week's article, but I’ve updated it to include a few extra shots in his recent games. What should jump out is his continued preference to take shots first-time, despite going through a lull in his output.
Of the 20 shots inside the box, Daka has attempted 18 one-touch shots (90%), and 2 two-touch shots. With his only 3+ touch attempt occurring outside the penalty area (vs. Leeds United [A]).
His instincts to release the shot quickly have remained since his Salzburg days, but maybe now, it’s at the cost of disregarding his spatial surroundings in the Championship. There have been multiple occasions this season where Daka takes a one-touch shot, but he could’ve set himself (two-touch shot) and unlocked a better angle to the goal, or around the GK.
Instead, it can all look a bit rushed and clumsy in front of the goal.
Below, I’ve created a “Pressure Chart” top-down visual that attempts to highlight the space he has when releasing his shots this season, using the two closest defenders as his proxy. What it should show, is that while Daka takes a large portion of his shots under “high pressure” (57%), he doesn’t need to.
Remember, 85.7% of his shots are one-touch. Behaving in this fashion means Daka doesn’t allow himself to shift the ball before shooting, so the high-pressure shots are unlikely to bypass the closest defender. Of the recorded 21 shots, I note that 11 (52.3%) are taken with a defender directly blocking the route to the goal.
As I’ve mentioned, this was a key element of his shot diet in Austria. Unafraid to shoot when at the ball side of a defender, Daka would quickly shoot and attempt to beat both the defender and GK with the speed of release. Impressively, it didn’t hamper his output, actually aiding it.
This isn’t the case at the moment. For his recorded shots (21) this season, Daka has continued his quick shot release whilst being marked tightly by a defender.
Now, if he acknowledged where the space was, and took a setting touch towards that area before shooting, he might have higher percentage shots at goal, or not have to contest with bouncing crosses and difficult-to-execute first-time finishes. For a player that appears to be low in confidence, that’s how you begin to build it back.
What’s confusing to me, is that as an off-ball runner, his movement is exceptional. It was the first part of his profile that I likened to Vardy, the ability to make a double movement within a single run, that drags defenders out of their shape and then you revert into the vacated space.
He understands the core mechanics and principles of creating space (without the ball), yet he doesn’t try to use his body once receiving to maximise space creation for his shots. I don’t think he should become a high-touch shooter, that’s not his style or profile, but adapting to a situation is crucial in elite sports. Find/create the space before shooting.
It’s fairly clear that Daka’s output is shades of what it used to be, despite offering very similar movement, and chance creation to his days at RB Salzburg. In fact, there have been a couple of misses this season that reminded me of the chances he scored while playing in Austria…
Incredibly similar chances, with differing results. Those shots taken with Leicester City aren’t being finished like he did in the Austrian Bundesliga, despite being identical.
The difference is the type of finish he opts for. For example, attempting to hit the near post in his first one-on-one (vs. Ipswich Town), whereas he confidently chipped the onrushing GK or rounded him to open the space and score.
The video attempts to highlight the small margins in elite football because outside of shooting the ball (again, an important aspect for a striker), Daka’s body shaping, and movement, are the same. The end product, unfortunately, is vastly different.
Off-the-ball: Rounding out his profile
Then you have the… “difficult to address in data areas”, like how good out of possession (OOP) he is. I can’t turn to specific data points to outline this sentiment, but those who watch him every week surely understand his value to a side attempting to high press or use a mid-block into a high press.
He’s athletic and smart at understanding the wider structure (OOP), especially from those stepping up to support him in the press. It’s an extreme example, but the most obvious impact his OOP pressing had was in the FA Cup game with Chelsea.
Applying pressure to Axel Disasi — who was listed as a pressing trigger for the Foxes, forced the CB into clearing a ball into his own net. Whilst, earlier in the game, Daka nearly picked the pocket of Robert Sánchez, the Chelsea GK, to score.
At its best, pressing can be an excellent chance creator, but to be effective you require the right profiles. I would suggest that in the current Leicester City squad, Daka’s profile is considered the best for pressing, and when you combine certain in-possession (IP) features; like his aptitude to receive to feet, as well as running in behind, you start to get a well-rounded player.
I also touched on why Daka plays so frequently during this “bad” period with Owynn Palmer-Atkin and Matt Piper of BBC Radio Leicester. The wider subject of the podcast is the “plan B” narrative, but I do speak on his profile and justify his usage by Maresca. You can give this a listen below…
I hope this semi-contextualising styled article is enjoyable to read, and perhaps changes the narrative on a forward that previously garnered a lot of respect from scouts, analysts, and players.
At the moment, Patson Daka is enduring a bad run of form in front of goal, underperforming his expected goals (xG) for the season by a sizeable 2.4, but part of that can be explained in his finishing style (exclusively one-touch and instinctive), and the other part down to confidence.
Historically, Daka has emulated his predecessor (Vardy) in the scoring department, overperforming his xG, which remains true for the majority of his time in the East Midlands.
This is the first time since joining that cumulatively he’s “in the red” and underperforming his xG. But, while the trendline doesn't look great, I hope I’ve illustrated that he’s a valuable asset for Leicester City — even more so if he could find a couple of goals to reset his confidence.
