The Curious (Aspiring) Cognoscente: Innovative Ideas, Napoleon's Routine, and Fusion Energy

October 5, 2023, Week 8

Our article this week looks at whether top M.B.A. students or A.I. are more creative. Then we hear from Ben Wilson on How to Take Over the World, discussing Napoleon's optimization machine. Finally, we look at two startups on the path to developing clean nuclear energy at scale.

Readwise Quote

A Gentleman in Moscow is one of my favorite fiction books, partly because of the story but primarily due to the writing and character development. The Count has many eloquent quotes, but maybe none more than this:

“A king fortifies himself with a castle,” observed the Count, “a gentleman with a desk.” — A Gentleman in Moscow, Amor Towles

This is what they mean when they say 'Knowledge is Power' — right?

Article

M.B.A. Students vs. ChatGPT: Who Comes Up With More Innovative Ideas? (The full Wharton paper, which is a fairly quick read and spending twenty minutes on, is here: Ideas Are Dimes A Dozen: Large Language Models For Idea Generation In Innovation.)

Wharton professors ran a study to determine whether Generative AI tools or M.B.A. students could develop more creative ideas for a new consumer goods product targeted at college students. The findings won't surprise you if you've kept up with A.I. trends.

Gen AI is more 'creative' than humans and can generate significantly more (and better) ideas in less time. There is no argument A.I. is more creative than humans ('more' defined here by the ability to develop higher quality ideas rated with higher appeal by a sample of college students). More than quality, though, it's also about speed. Gen AI tools can generate 100 ideas in less than thirty minutes, while humans would need hours.

As AI continues to be applied, human roles will change. The value humans bring will be from evaluating ideas rather than generation. And humans' value on executing ideas will become more critical. No matter how 'good' A.I. gets, it won't be able to fully design a product, conduct market analysis and project revenues, build a supply chain strategy, define a production and distribution plan, allocate capital and resources, and launch the product. All of these execution steps require interaction between multiple humans across organizations. People skills will remain imperative even if the ideas being executed weren't fully dreamt up in the minds of humans.

Podcast Episode

How to Take Over the World: Napoleon Revisited

My four takeaways:

• Optimize for what you are best at — For Napoleon; this was thinking and making decisions. He didn't spend time writing; he thought and dictated. He didn't address his letters; he let them fall to the ground and had someone address them for him. He worked odd hours (2 to 5 am). Build a machine and processes around whatever YOU are uniquely enabled to do. Napoleon's secretary optimized to be the best secretary. Everyone has something to contribute, and it doesn't have to be taking over the world — once you find your 'thing,' build your systems.
• Consistent rules, flexible schedule — Napoleon went through his day with guiding principles on how he operated. At the same time, he allowed flexibility in when and how he got everything done. I've started blocking every 15 minutes of my life in my calendar. If there wasn't flexibility in this, I'd go crazy when things changed. But, the consistency has allowed me to spend time more effectively and ensure that my time is allocated appropriately based on my goals.
• Protect the downside — Risk takers are typically considered bold and trying to maximize the upside. Interestingly, the podcast discusses the importance of protecting the downside and enabling risk-taking. Knowing you have a plan should things not go your way allows you to take greater risks because you don't have to fear failure. You have options on the downside, so enabling a set of predefined plans doesn't seem as big of a deal.
• Limit the trivial decisions — Napoleon was a man with grand ambition and plenty of things to decide on. He didn't need to concern himself with something like what he was going to wear each day. For this reason, he only had two uniforms. You see this with Steve Jobs as well. High performers limit the number of trivial decisions they make every day. I don't support only having two outfits, but I think there is some merit to deciding ahead of time. Spending 15 minutes every night planning everything (my clothes, how I'll spend my time, all my meals, what I need to accomplish) for the next day helps tremendously. I don't have to think about trivial things when I wake up every morning; I can start executing and spending my brain power on the important decisions of the day.

Startup

We have two startups this week, both focused on efficient nuclear energy using fusion: Commonwealth Fusion Energy (C.F.E.) and Helion Energy.

I came across both startups from an All In Podcast summit presentation. The concept of nuclear fusion has come up more in my life in the past month than the rest of my life combined. Fusion is very different from the nuclear energy of the past, which used fission. Here's a quick table from Bard on the differences that I found very helpful:

From Bard

I'm grossly oversimplifying. Watch the presentation, and you'll understand more about the technical difficulties, but regardless, there should be optimism around the potential for fusion usage.

Positioning

We need clean energy for the future. It's not really up for debate. The total addressable market (T.A.M.) for nuclear power is massive (the whole world). It's a matter of time, and I prefer to be optimistic that when the world really needs a solution, it finds one.

Fusion energy has the potential to be a big part of the answer, producing significant energy output that can be easily turned on and off and stored within the existing energy grid.

C.F.E. and Helion have different architectures for generating energy. This is positive — diversity in approach and competition lends itself to better solutions for us, the end consumer (and the planet).

Questions

The questions are vast: can the technology be developed by the time the world needs it? Can it be scaled fast enough? Will the required capital be provided to support development? Who will pay for this energy? What change in the incentive structure is required to move away from legacy energy companies?

If you asked the C.E.O.s of each company, they could articulate a response to each. I want to research these questions in the future to get a more informed view of fusion energy.

Funding

C.F.E. has raised $2B in 5 funding rounds.

Helion has raised $577M in 7 funding rounds.

An Idea, Learning, or Question

Who, or what, is in control?

I fall in the latter category of running circles to ensure my Strava shows 10. I've never thought too deeply about motivations for this, but after reading the entire Twitter thread from Steve (co-author of the Growth Equation newsletter and numerous books — big fan of his), I'll think twice about stopping.

It's a quick read and very thought-provoking.

I'll leave you to consider whether you are truly choosing how you spend your time and what goals you are working towards, or are you being controlled by external forces that prompt you to behave a certain way?

Go be curious — until next time.

You can find a summary of the purpose of the Curious (Aspiring) Cognoscente here.

Have other interesting sources, ideas, quotes, articles, companies, or topics? I'd love your recommendations or to discuss them with you. Leave a comment or drop me a direct message.

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