Technology Trend: GENERATION AI
The following is a Strategic Foresight point-of-view on Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI). In this article, we will explore the impact and potential of Generative AI, focusing on its applications and considerations within profit and not-for-profit organizations. For a deeper understanding of Strategic Foresight, I recommend reading my primer on Medium.com titled “Mastering Change with Strategic Foresight and Innovation.”
It is astounding how quickly ChatGPT, one of the many tools under the Generative AI umbrella, has gained popularity since its release in November 2022. Within just five days, it amassed over a million users. Today, after eight months, a multitude of innovative supporting products have emerged, including prompt lists, courses, and articles showcasing the diverse applications of ChatGPT for tasks such as marketing copy generation, business design, brainstorming, travel planning, and song lyric creation.
ChatGPT is only one example of the transformative potential of Generative AI. Other tools like Bard, Writesonic, Pictory, Dall-E, and Fliki offer capabilities in generating text, video edits, images, and even TikTok-ready videos. The widespread adoption and use of Generative AI indicate its significance as a current technology trend that shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, the younger generation, known as Generation Alpha, born after 2010, may very well be called Generation AI.
The Allure of Generative AI: Novelty, Ease of Use, and Cost Savings
As an emerging technology, Generative AI holds immense appeal for early adopters. The user-friendly nature and widespread availability of tools contribute to its popularity. Many of these tools are initially free to use or offer a trial period, making them accessible to individuals and organizations. The content generated by these tools often finds its way to social media platforms, gaining significant traction, and occasionally going viral. A notable example is the fake Drake and Weeknd song, “Heart on My Sleeve,” which originated on TikTok but soon garnered hundreds of thousands of streams on platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, and Tidal.
Within office environments, Generative AI finds application in drafting contracts, generating advertising copy, art, and product descriptions, and even assisting with code generation and debugging. Researchers and students leverage these tools for secondary research, brainstorming, and drafting academic papers. The key drivers behind this adoption are cost-cutting and time-saving.
Furthermore, the allure of Generative AI lies in its ability to enable individuals with limited creative skills to generate professional content effortlessly.
Current Impact and Considerations: Addressing Limitations and Challenges
Despite the remarkable outputs generated by Generative AI tools, early adopters have also encountered limitations and identified the impact on existing systems and processes. Let us delve into some of these challenges:
Misinformation:
Generative AI tools like ChatGPT do not provide references or source material for their responses. Consequently, when faced with queries for references, these tools draw from multiple sources, sometimes resulting in the creation of inaccurate or fictional information. Legal professionals, for example, have faced difficulties when using ChatGPT to generate legal briefs, inadvertently including fake cases.
Inherent Bias:
The content produced by Generative AI tools can reflect biases. These biases can stem from skewed datasets or the embedding of the authors’ own biases within the algorithm’s code. Companies like Microsoft, who have integrated ChatGPT into their BING search engine, are actively addressing this concern.
Plagiarism:
The ability of Generative AI tools to swiftly generate papers has led some students to exploit them for academic purposes. Consequently, professors are faced with the challenge of discerning the authenticity of work submitted to them. To mitigate this issue, AI detectors have been developed to flag AI-generated content.
Copyright Infringement:
Similar to using samples from popular songs in new compositions, AI-generated artwork sometimes incorporates existing creations without proper rights and permissions. Additionally, the voices of artists or the visual likenesses of celebrities may be utilized without their consent.
Security Risk and Protecting Private Information:
As Generative AI tools operate within the public domain, user prompts are often stored and employed for machine learning purposes by the platform. This raises concerns about the potential integration and sharing of sensitive intellectual property. Instances such as an employee at Samsung using ChatGPT to debug internal code prompted the company to ban its staff from using the tool. It is important to note that ChatGPT provides options to disable chat history, decline the use of chat history for training, and export data. Furthermore, private Generative AI products offered by Amazon, Microsoft, Box, and others provide added security measures to mitigate risks.
Reversing the Trend: Banning or Limiting Use of Generative AI
Certain companies, such as Samsung, Apple, Spotify, and Verizon, have chosen to restrict or ban the use of ChatGPT due to concerns and limitations. Other organizations that initially embraced Generative AI without fully understanding its implications are now reconsidering their decisions. An article by The Washington Post titled “ChatGPT took their jobs. Now they walk dogs and fix air conditioners” sheds light on the struggles faced by content writer Eric Fein, whose business suffered a significant blow after his clients began using ChatGPT. However, one of his clients rehired him after expressing dissatisfaction with the output generated by ChatGPT. Nevertheless, Eric decided to retrain as an HVAC technician, highlighting the need to adapt and redefine job roles affected by Generative AI.
Moving Forward: Navigating the Path Ahead
In a Harvard Business School Podcast titled “Cold Call — How Unilever is Preparing for the Future of Work,” we are prompted to view jobs as a collection of tasks. Jobs that involve single-tasked and repetitive work are more susceptible to automation through Generative AI, potentially reducing the number of individuals required to perform those tasks. However, most office jobs involve multiple tasks, and Generative AI acts as a transformative force that changes how these tasks are executed rather than completely replacing the jobs themselves.
Generative AI remains an emerging technology with a trajectory that can be visualized using Gartner’s Hype Cycle. This model tracks the path of new technologies, mapping them against expectations and time. As of September 2022, Generative AI was reaching the Peak of inflated expectations, where idealistic views of the technology prevailed. However, as we approach the present day, limitations and challenges have emerged, leading Generative AI towards the Trough of disillusionment. During this phase, people may become more skeptical and resistant to its use. Gartner projected that Generative AI would become a productive tool within the next two to five years, specifically between 2024 and 2027.
This is an opportune time for exploration, as an outright ban may hinder the potential time and cost savings organizations can benefit from by employing Generative AI. It is crucial to establish security measures and policies that can adapt to platform improvements and innovations.
When publishing or sharing work created using ChatGPT or other Generative AI platforms, it is essential to clearly indicate the tool’s usage. For instance, this article and my Strategic Foresight primer were reviewed and edited with the assistance of ChatGPT. The platform provided valuable ideas to improve the article, and most of its suggested edits enhanced clarity and flow.
Furthermore, this transformative phase presents an opportunity to redefine and repurpose job roles that are influenced by Generative AI. While the tools themselves are incredibly intuitive, undertaking courses or training, such as those available on UDEMY.com, can enhance understanding of how to effectively leverage ChatGPT for business and entrepreneurial purposes. This strategy can address skill shortages and empower individuals to utilize Generative AI more effectively.
Drawing from my own experience, the research training from my master’s degree has proven invaluable when using ChatGPT. By understanding how content is generated, I triangulate the information provided by the platform with various other reliable sources. I am also conscious of the influence that the formulation of my questions, used as prompts, has on the results.
Planning the Future: Embracing Integration and Adapting to Change
Looking ahead five years, I foresee the full integration of Generative AI within cutting-edge organizations. Some organizations will opt for personalized and secure platforms, while others may leverage privacy functions on public platforms. Many organizations will strive to catch up with early adopters, while a few may choose not to adopt these tools as a market differentiator.
Job roles that have been transformed by Generative AI will undergo significant changes and may be predominantly staffed by tech-savvy young professionals entering the workforce. Furthermore, new job roles, such as prompt engineers, will emerge.
In the realm of education, teachers will become better equipped at detecting papers written using ChatGPT, while students will find ways to navigate these detection systems. Some educators may embrace the use of Generative AI and teach students how to utilize it properly, encouraging them to review and revise content generated by the tool. Students employing inquiry-based learning methodologies will feel comfortable using ChatGPT to quickly find answers and subsequently verify information using other reliable sources. This evolution is reminiscent of the ban imposed on Wikipedia by certain academic institutions back in 2011. Although Wikipedia is reference-based, I would often use it to swiftly search for a topic and subsequently review the provided references to ensure the accuracy of the information.
Similar to search engines like Google and Bing, people will begin to recognize that each Generative AI platform possesses a distinct voice influenced by its dataset or algorithmic construction. Differentiation opportunities will arise based on the dataset and user access provided by these platforms. Users will gravitate towards platforms that align with their specific needs and budgets. It is crucial to recognize that users remain the driving force behind content creation, as their preferences, education, decision-making, and biases inevitably influence the outcomes. Therefore, the notion of multiple voices (human and machine) contributing to content creation will persist.
The purpose of this article is to stimulate your thinking and that of your teams regarding the future. Consider the following questions as starting points for reflection:
· Which of the presented scenarios best aligns with your organization’s anticipated position in 2028?
· How does ChatGPT or other Generative AI platforms affect job roles within your organization?
· Have any of your team members begun utilizing these tools, and if so, how?
By critically evaluating the implications of Generative AI, organizations and leaders can make informed decisions and effectively navigate the transformative landscape ahead.
Ideas in this article are pulled from the following resources:
A Short History Of ChatGPT: How We Got To Where We Are Today
Bernard Marr
May 18, 2023
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2023/05/19/a-short-history-of-chatgpt-how-we-got-to-where-we-are-today/?sh=142a738d674f
As Businesses Clamor for Workplace A.I., Tech Companies Rush to Provide It
Yiwen Lu
July 5, 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/05/technology/business-ai-technology.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
ChatGPT Is Reshaping Crowd Work
Caitlin Harrington
July 7, 2023
https://www.wired.com/story/chatgpt-is-reshaping-crowd-work/
ChatGPT took their jobs. Now they walk dogs and fix air conditioners.
Pranshu Verma and Gerrit De Vynck
June 2, 2023
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/02/ai-taking-jobs/
Don’t panic, we’ll find a workaround for AI
Emma Duncans — The Time
May 11, 2023
https://apple.news/A512JEd7zQh-dfNOtJ3tnXQ
Employees want ChatGPT at work. Bosses worry they’ll spill secrets.
Taylor Telford and Pranshu Verma — Washington Post
July 10, 2023
https://apple.news/AuazKuUtoSaOfSHF4nXemIg
Fake Drake: AI-generated track with Toronto rapper and the Weeknd pulled down
David Friend
April 18, 2023
https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/music/2023/04/18/fake-drake-ai-generated-track-with-toronto-rapper-and-the-weeknd-pulled-down.html
How does ChatGPT decide what to say next? Here’s a quick explainer.
Sindhu Sandra
July 9,2023
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-ai-chatbots-like-chatgpt-work-explainer-2023-7
How Unilever Is Preparing for the Future of Work
Harvard Business Review cold call podcast — Professor Bill Kerr from Harvard Business school and Patrick Hull from Unilever
July 24, 2023
https://hbr.org/podcast/2023/07/how-unilever-is-preparing-for-the-future-of-work
Rise of AI Puts Spotlight on Bias in Algorithms
Isabelle Bousquet
March 9, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rise-of-ai-puts-spotlight-on-bias-in-algorithms-26ee6cc9
The A.I. Revolution Will Change Work. Nobody Agrees How.
Sarah Kessler
June 10. 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/business/ai-jobs-work.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
What is Generative AI?
McKinsey & Company
January 19, 2023
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-is-Generative-ai
What’s New in Artificial Intelligence from the 2022 Gartner Hype Cycle
Jackie Wiles
September 15, 2022
https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/what-s-new-in-artificial-intelligence-from-the-2022-gartner-hype-cycle