6/30 Cryptocurrency and Stock Market Analysis — Bearish 📉
I had bearish expectations before I even looked at the charts, I could feel it.
To save the trouble of reading the entire article for those who just want a price, I expect $16k for BTC *or below* to produce some form of corrective bounce.
Today represents an uptick in bearishness. And it’s correlated with the stock market, which adds up to a lot of issues. Chart link for below (to zoom): https://www.tradingview.com/x/Glp3StCS/ . Notice how the directional indications have ramped up yet again. Can we see a bounce somewhere? Yeah, but not before defining a new low yet again.
First, I want to point out that the SPY (stock market S&P 500 index) also went down with crypto, and created a new gap where they had one prior. That’s not normal for gaps, even though I love me some gaps. That means the market for the SPY is going nuts. Link to chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7opoL0rV/ .
Total2 looks just as ugly. Chart link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/RQL4Iq5i/ .
Remember how I said shorts were in control for days?(my own links there) Well that move is a-coming. Real soon. It’s *not* over. It’s *starting*. Does this mean real bullishness happens after? See image below. There’s timing the market and feeling the market. I’m deploying 0 capital right now. Anything in is where it is, anything not in is not being deployed, either.
So, what’s next? People like gold, right? Yeah, how’s gold doing? it’s about to *drop* too. Welcome to recession as I mentioned about a week ago *yet again*, the real kind. Link to chart image: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KIxvM74a/ .
Weekly chart (as gold is supposedly slow) is not any better. Link -> https://www.tradingview.com/x/p1KGsaC1/ .
I’m not giving up because I like to trade, but I’m also shorting the market. In fact, I’m working heavily on bot development when not providing analysis, but again one can only manage so much at a time.
I estimated the silver cup and handle, and hopefully it happens here, otherwise silver will dump with. The significant difference here is volume. Chart image link -> https://www.tradingview.com/x/L3ccF3tV/ . It could take 2–3 years for silver to really play out though, so do remember that.
What about Forex? Well, Ruble is taking a leg down this week vs USD. It’s a question of how long this will keep up before the Ruble inevitably collapses. Link to weekly -> https://www.tradingview.com/x/apZfwGTu/. It could be a while, but it’s in the “we will find a bottom” status quite soon. How soon? Look at the monthly 2nd chart below.
In my last global analysis, I pointed out how almost everything outside USD is in trouble. Ruble was one of the last standing by manipulating the market. )(strict price control and nobody buying). That’s probably going to end in 1–2 months. So, let’s zoom out and see, shall we? Link to chart -> https://www.tradingview.com/x/qTkTf33R/
So what is this? This is the last gasps of the Ruble before it dies off. What’s interesting is other global markets are not quite in the same boat. This is Brazil, happily buying up the ruble and selling the USD. That’s a bit unsurprising but shows how the ruble is being arbitraged, massively. On the flip side is blackbull, who had a massive selloff of Ruble and still does, looks like. This is a massive arbitrage to anyone who can do brazil/american forex, if it can be done — but probably only by Brazillians anyway.
In short, hello recession, we have not seen you in a long time. I’m prepared, and I hope many of you are.
