Reelection and Risk: Viability and Impact of Petro’s Political Ambitions
His low popularity and the 2023 electoral results indicate, as of today, few chances of success in 2026.
Recent political and media speculations about a possible reelection bid by President Gustavo Petro have ignited political debate in Colombia. Below, I analyze them based on the reports and interactions of CC&PRMC throughout 2023.
1. Reelection Bid
There are indications that President Petro might seek a constitutional reform to allow his reelection. Among others, they range from the persistent pursuit of bureaucratic power that the approval of the health reform would give him to the “Vida” newspaper of the Presidency of the Republic, announced in December 2023 and whose circulation began on January 16, 2024, free of charge with a circulation of 500,000 copies.
This should not be surprising. Most rulers around the world, regardless of their ideology, tend to seek reelection. And they all seek someone close to them or their policies to replace them. Given Petro’s radical and long-term focus, the tendency to seek reelection is reinforced.
2. Constitutional Reform Enabling Reelection
The insistence on passing the health reform since the beginning of 2023, despite being the initial cause of the decrease in the popularity of the President of the Republic, suggests an electoral strategy. This unpopularity has been exacerbated by political scandals, security problems, economic challenges, and radicalization in his political approach.
Although Petro’s unpopularity has limited his influence in Congress, the bureaucratic power that health reform would give him could be crucial in obtaining the approval of some constitutional mechanism that enables him to run for president in 2026. For example, a legislative act, a referendum, or even a constituent assembly.
3. Obstacles to Constitutional Change
Although there are significant obstacles to a constitutional change in Colombia that enables reelection, the potential approval of health reform increases this possibility, given the greater bureaucratic power it would grant the government.
Normally, almost a social and political consensus would be required for constitutional changes of this magnitude in Colombia. However, although this consensus does not seem to exist in 2024, the government could use all its bureaucratic and economic power to push for such change, as demonstrated by the approval of the health reform in the Chamber during 2023, enhanced if the health reform is approved.
In any case, I believe that, even if the health reform is approved, the reasons that have undermined its governability mean that the approval of a constitutional reform that enables the possibility of its re-election remains, to date, unlikely.
4. Probabilities of Reelection
Yet, even if reelection were constitutionally enabled, the probabilities of Petro, or someone close to him or his policies, being reelected are low due to his persistent unpopularity.
The causes of his unpopularity, as today, are not expected to decrease significantly in the coming years. This even using his increased power from the possible approval of the health reform.
Furthermore, several opinion studies indicate that the population, even the youngest, has been trending towards the center-right for several months.
The results of the 2023 regional elections are proof of that and indicate, as of today, what could be the outcome of the 2026 elections even under the bureaucratic and contractual influence of rulers who have been aligned with President Gustavo Petro. The examples of Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali were examples of this.
5. Impact on the Business and Investment Environment
The valid speculations and consequent political uncertainty about a possible search for reelection by President Gustavo Petro, or someone close to him or his policies, can influence the economic and social stability of the country, especially if they are overestimated, and therefore, there is an overreaction to them.
Among others, through impacts on investment decisions and the exchange rate, and thus on growth, inflation, interest rates, and unemployment.
Moreover, any announcement of reform in this sense could generate volatility and affect the perception of risk in the business and investment environment in Colombia.
Hence the importance of differentiating between the intentions, the possibilities of constitutional change, and the real possibilities of his reelection or that of personal or political allies, as I have tried to do here.
Thus, it is appropriate to point out that, as today, and despite his predictable attempts to seek reelection directly or indirectly, Petro’s persistent unpopularity, the results of the 2023 regional elections, and the country’s trend towards the center-right, even among the younger demographic, suggest low probabilities of success in the 2026 elections. Even under greater bureaucratic or contractual influence that increases the currently unlikely constitutional modification that enables him to be re-elected.
The author is Managing Partner at CC&PRMC, a strategic and legal consulting firm based in Bogotá, Colombia, specialized in the management of political, geopolitical, geo-economic risks and compliance for companies and organizations with interests en Latin America. Connect with him on LinkedIn for further insights and discussions here.
© 2023, Jorge Enrique Gómez Pardo. All rights reserved. If you use this content, please give credit to the author.
