New coronavirus data about deathrate

Since my social epidemiology, this is my first run in an epidemic/ pandemic. I wanted to study ebola, to help with that, but I had the social problems in this country to do first, and that took me till today. Thus about 7 years. And studied management to solve the personal problems they have at work, and the crime problems at work, that cause all these problems in society. I also, now study to be an MD, first my bachelor's degree in health sciences than the medical studies.

Because I am already a psychologist, (Dutch gave many problems to be degreed, although I studied for that many years, and I am valued at Ph.D. level, but the entire plan was to have degrees, as the world today uses degrees.)and will use the studies to work with MRI and fMRI until I have my MD.

I know all the viruses will come back and will become new types, and thus I will learn about them all, and help with them all.

But the first round trying to help with data and understanding, from the beginning from the first cases I liked to do. I feel sad for all the deaths and the ill, and the stress is extremely high for all, but I see how it helps to make the future easier. And I love the feeling of solving, and to be aware, yes we will solve this, but it just needs a plan, and all of us studying this.

I could not know the feeling until now, and that can make everyone at ease because it means viruses like these come around, and will come around, but it took some years before this happened.

Also, all studying now, just remind you it takes some years to see all developments on earth and to see where your studies will take you. It is an interesting route to see where we all go and to see what we can do.

The purpose in life will come with the years, for some. And all the pieces are needed to be studied, so when it is an easy time again, after this virus, I suggest to keep studying whatever you can and have time for, want and you think you might need in the future and has priority for you.

Updates:

11/3

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate

10/2 my 2 scenarios are accurate, it is in between the 2 the outcome for the next day… but in the end, 20% dies… It just needs more time. There are deaths tomorrow and more deaths after 30+ days of illness. And 20% in the end dies… of the total. 1.4 billion will die if we do not win #coronavirus 2019.

Coronavirus Cases:

Also, more viruses were found in #china, by hero #chinese #doctors telling us about it, so we can prepare. Because of the ice melting, ancient viruses get free. So we can get the old viruses and new ones forming out of the old.

We have to understand all these #doctors #sharing are #hero’s.

6/2 The video’s that help to make the rates calculated right, show the difference, when one knows the actual infected and the actual ways to measure the death rates:

4/2 Update about the data I have: the amount per day that dies is a bit higher,

So, that can be from today to next it is a bit higher than 3.1%, so the more infected, even more, you will see that more die than my prediction, but it is still good about. It is correct, but not extremely precise, but about precise. So, when I thought 400 it had to be, it was 426. (Which is shown today (in my country it is then the 4th and am), while it was about the 3rd. )

I thought that day of 300 deaths had to be 350. It became more 362. And was waiting for new data. Forgot to measure the new patients, I kept those 14000, as that rate I had just found, and not expected even more patients too. There it had to be already 18.000 And it became 17387.

And now there already 20.000 cases. So, the raise of infected is not 27% but 30%. So the more deaths will more likely come from that, there are more people infected per day than I expected. So with 3%, it would be 600, tomorrow. (4th of February)Which you see on the 5th. The 5th it will be told. With a bit % more it will be a bit more.

So, now next week starts, from 18000 and 600 deaths.

I find the new data a bit shocking but led to ideas about how viruses would die out if we had no healthcare.

The first place was not the only place, some think. But we measure a lot from there.

41 ill, they were severely ill, with pneumonia and when there were about 6 deaths, the new virus was found. But the days before people could have been infected to, from another place, and we do not know what happened. So, we count from here, from this moment in Wuhan. Until someone finds all the other data, if there is such data. Or if people can track it down, by being able to look back at all pneumonia types around the world, and if people would be able to find the virus after these people being death for a while now.

So, we have rates when we a developing situation like this one, where the next days the virus spreads and people die, and

Data changes, and data interpretations.

We know with the data over time, kind of the track where this goes, and after a time where it should go, so if data changes, we know things have happened that changed the route of the data. So, it might is solved, or gotten worse, or we learn new details about actual rates, and how to see the situation differently.

I learned it is not per se “wrong” data, but it gets a place. So, severely ill we measure, or all ill we measure. The difference says a lot about how severe the situation is. Do we have 1000 severely ill, we have also have just ill, but not severely ill. And we can have people with no symptoms, not knowing they are ill. We place all this data.

I found it interesting to not know anything at the beginning, and people logically would say all kinds of things, which could be true, but time had to tell us.

So, the shocking data now, is also an attempt, as all data is the real data the moment we found the truth of all the data.

And the purpose of this data is for me, to find the answer to what to do. It takes a while to develop vaccines, but it could be good to know when such would be done, and till that moment we have this virus killing people. We can measure with the predictions what we should do to stop the virus.

And if waiting this long for a vaccine is the only option, or if there are more ways. We can pray the virus gets less dangerous, but how logic is that.

That is the next step, to find the logic interpretations fitting the data. Logic answers will come after this.

So the data we know from the first 14 days are, from the 41 ill, and 6 deaths:

41 6 (14% death rate )

446 9 (2% death rate)

579 17 (3% death rate)

844 25 (3% death rate)

1312 41 (3.1% death rate)

2015 56 (2.77 % death rate)

2801 80 (2.8% death rate)

— — — — week 1

4579 106 (2,3% death rate)

6061 132 (2,2% death rate)

7816 170 (We also know from this point, an estimate of worldwide ill are actually 78.000, but 7816 are confirmed and 1370 would be severely ill, of these confirmed, and 124 recovered of all patients) (2,2% death rate)

9821 213 (2,2% death rate)

11948 258 (2,2% death rate)

14000 304 (This remained, I got the number of deaths early that day though, and was waiting on the infected to rise, those infected staid a longer time 14000 and death rate rose very early to this, and remained the day on the 304) (2.1% death rate)

Updates

Update 4/2: See the rate drop.., I put the rates of death behind the numbers, it was hope then, but who dared to say it, another hand more people are found that are infected, so it might not actually drop, but we find more infected, which makes it look like a drop. So the death rate remains the same, but compared to the more found people it seems lower. So, from severe cases was until here 18% dies)

Update 4/2: There was another day with data in between this and the next week because all data was new, and the amount of infected was unclear, at that time.

Then it became about 18.000 infected.

17387 362 as of end of this week.

— — — — — — — — — — — week 2

(The next: original text)

This is about 14 days of the Coronavirus 2019. 2 weeks of Coronavirus 2019, that we know this is a deadly new virus.

14 days from symptoms to death

People think from symptoms to death takes 14 days, but that would mean all do die, and some did recover. 304 deaths after 14 days, is more than the first ill, 14 days ago. But this could mean a few things, that a lot more people were ill and severely ill, and we have found a few. So, it can be true as well, but we then have more ill.

2–14 days from getting the virus to getting symptoms

And people also have no symptoms and die from this virus, some had only diarrhea, or nothing showing they were ill.

It could mean just like the 2–14 days before symptoms, that the days to death vary a lot too.

My prediction rate was right the past days, so, I share them, and they might stay accurate.

I found about 3% rate to the next day. So, when there were 7816 ill, and 170 died, I knew the next day would be about 220 deaths. And after that, I knew about 250 deaths. And for the third day after I knew about 300 deaths.

I know today had to be (dutch 15.00 2nd about 350, and about 3am 3rd about 400) But I am looking for more days to get this more accurate.

So, to get into this rate, 3% is about what we now see. It is estimated that 2–4%, or 2–5% will die eventually. But we see that death rate now constantly, while it takes 14 days to die.

So, would that mean that the first days are more accurate? Then people had 14% death rate. Also, there was said, between then and now, from the severely ill 18% dies.

So, to be accurate we can measure the severely ill only, and the death rate and keep track of that data for some days, and then know to predict future deaths more accurately.

And, we can measure all the data:

• severely ill and the death rate
• all ill, or all confirmed ill and the death rate
• and the severely ill from the total, and then the death rate

Rates until now:

• About 3% of the total today dies tomorrow.
• That is 2–5% of the total ill.
• And we did not find the real total group of ill yet. So, we measure confirmed ill, and that can be sometimes more severe cases than other times because people come to check more often, or can not check more often. So the actual total we do not measure yet, we have only the data for confirmed ill.

Then to estimate the next total confirmed I found about 27% extra people will be confirmed ill the next day.

We do must be aware viruses have also atypical moments, that can happen. And this Corona type has been changing a lot already too. So, we need to be aware of many things with this virus.

The next week would be:

If the data keeps developing with this rate.

Confirmed infected now and death tomorrow

(update

6/2: This update shows with the video how to change below. Even in 20 days, the world could get infected, without lockdown.

4/2 : 18000 was already reached in week 2, that was unexpected. The rate will be lower as we find more infected. So about the original idea below, if the rate is now lower and lower death rate because we find more infected, it will be lower. And the amount of infected will be higher. I think we should find the accurate rates, and that takes time. But we can see if we do nothing it takes years and years before we are released of this, or we will see the rate dropping as if somehow we got immune. Would there then be a hypothesis: the longer the virus around, we are not always infected but getting immune? We can now see with a lockdown, if the not infected got immune too, that would be a very hopeful phenomenon to now measure, as we can now. It is not often we have people in a lockdown. Then the hypothesis of waiting hundreds of years to die out is then replaced by people get immune also when not infected. We do need to know for sure, else we skip lockdowns in the future with viruses that do not make us immune. We perhaps will not see that with every virus. And it might be a bit too hopeful. But it is interesting to also measure children without a children's disease and without vaccinations on immunity. As we know already some babies get immune through the mother. We would have a great new field to discover.)

18000 600

23000 800

30000 1000

38000 1250

48000 1500

62000 2000

80000 2500

Then we have 3 weeks of data to measure what happened to the death rate. We hope someone stops this earlier than the end of this list, or knows a way to stop this spreading, and thus the death rate.

New prediction update 4/2:

20000 426

26000 546

33000 660 (as the death rate will drop slowly)

42000 840

54000 1080

70000 1400

90000 1800

That would be iller, so over time, the number of deaths can go up, as we do not die the next day most of this. But within 14 days, or 30 days or 30+. So, there are different death rates. That, in the end, come together.

(next is the original text again, using the old data, because we do not know yet how the new data fits and is accurate. The old was a few days accurate)

But from here we can continue the prediction

If 78000 would be really infected since about 14000 confirmed(it was unclear if it was found since the beginning or since any other day until 14000 were found, so to be safe I started using this estimate from 14000 confirmed ill)

So, if we add this to the data for next week we have estimate ill, confirmed ill, including severely ill, and the deaths.

78000 14000 450

105000 18000 600

etc. And if we also add the 14–18% of severely ill that will die, and count the all confirmed cases as the severely ill, to find the max of death. Taking this as a maximum death rate, which most likely will not be this high, but is near the maximum death rate it actually will be, because we know now 18% of severely death will die, but it takes 14 days from symptoms to death, plus over time people can die also after 30 days, or even longer. So, to stay near the actual rate that the future will bring I took the 18% rate of the confirmed ill, which has a lot of them the severely ill.

Then you see estimate, confirmed ill, including the severely ill, and the death rate that we can have(about rate), and have now.

78000 14000 2500 450

105000 18000 3200 600

130000 23000 4100 800

170000 30000 5200 1000

220000 38000 6500 1250

280000 48000 8500 1500

350000 62000 11000 2000

450000 80000 14000 2500

From here it gets all about, and more about. Because from here we can not be sure. From here in the real data we see the small and bigger changes, to make a better estimate for the future.

So, from here it all became extremely about, but shows a way where this kind of can go…

If we have after 2 more weeks from today this coronavirus…

We can try to double from this about week, to 2 weeks, to 4 weeks, to 8 weeks etc. Untill entire earth would be having this infection. Someone that likes to take more time on this, please do, it will make the data way more accurate then the next prediction. But the next prediction shows about what would happen if we never solve this virus. And leads to my hypothesis of what would happen if we had no healthcare, no solutions and we were just waiting till this was over.

I left the 18% date rate out, it would get to vague to use it, but if someone likes to be precise and add it, please do.

1 more week coronavirus 2019: 450, 000 80,000 2500

2 weeks: 900,000 160,000 5000

4 weeks: 1,800,000 320,000 10,000

8 weeks: 3,600,000 640,000 20,000

16 weeks: 7,200,000 1,280,000 40,000

From here even more vague untill the 7 billion would be reached

Then 7 million with 40,000 deaths is reached after 16 weeks from now. And it could be with a rate of about 3% 220,000 instead of 40,000. If it will be the deaths of total infected. But if from confirmed, it will be 40,000.

So,7 billion would be vaguely about:

7m 16 w 40, 000 deaths

14m 32w 80, 000

28 64 160, 000

56 128 320, 000

112 250 640,000

If we have a vaccine after 7 years, somewhere here this virus would be solved.

224 512 1,280, 000

448 1024 2,560,000

896 2048 5,120,000

1792 4096 10,240,000

3584 8192 20,480,000

7168 16384 weeks= 315 years. By then we have so many viruses that would have killed us, if we had no health care.

But it brought me to the idea, it can take this long before all had the same virus. It simply does. But we would have to stay in lockdown to let it take that long. So, thanks to lockdown it takes 315 years before we all have this virus.

Then 40,960,000 would have died. We have not measured max possible deaths. Just the rate of today. And vaguely till 7 billion would get the virus without health care finding a cure, and with the lockdown and healthcare provided as today.

references

Worldometers (2020) WUHAN CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK Worldometers Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Hachmer, J. (28th of January, 2020) Not Influenza: “Novel”, Coronavirus 2019, started with a death rate of 14%, now 4%. “Novel” is way more severe than some people want to show. See the real data… Retrieved from https://medium.com/@jiskahachmer/not-influenza-novel-coronavirus-2019-started-with-a-death-rate-of-14-now-4-4c896fe2fdd3

Hood, M (3rd of February, 2020) New Research Estimates 75,000 People in Wuhan Are Infected With Coronavirus Science alert Retrieved from https://www.sciencealert.com/new-study-estimates-75-000-people-in-wuhan-infected-with-coronavirus