NFL Week 11 Recap

Another week of heavily favorited home teams and a few meaningful division matchups as well. Week 11 came with some surprising upsets. Lets see how the record rolls!

CIN @ BAL
Prediction: 18–28
Actual: 20–34

Thursday Night Football recap here. Not adding to the stats due to a publish error.

DAL @ CAR
Prediction: 35–16
Actual: 33–10

No surprises here as Dallas pummels another struggling team. Would’ve been a more comfortable pick for my pick of the week! Cowboys defense ended the game with 7 sacks, a fumble recovery, and a pick six. Adam Thielen was the only receiver Young really looked at when he had a chance to throw seeing 42% of the targets. Dallas Win, Cover -10, and Over 42 — (3/3)

NYG @ WAS
Prediction: 13–27
Actual: 31–19

In a surprising upset, Tommy DeVito and Sam Howell switched roles in this one. I didn’t even think this would be close enough to run a flipside calculation. Aside from taking 9 sacks in the game, Tommy DeVito looked like an NFL quarterback. Washington losing 3 fumbles and throwing 3 interceptions the Giants defense gave DeVito 5 additional opportunities to put numbers on the board; Isaiah Simmons ran back a 54-yard pick six for one of the turnovers. Sam Howell hasn’t had a multi-interception game since week 3 against Buffalo. Complete flip of the script. Giants (Win), (Cover) +9, and total is (Over) 38.5 — (0/3)

CHI @ DET
Prediction: 20–34
Actual: 26–31

Justin Fields comes back and tops the rushing personnel with 104 yards! Losing D’Onta Foreman at the beginning of the 2nd quarter, the Bears still accumulated most of their yards on the ground. Jared Goff was trying hard to help Chicago with 3 interceptions as well. A late touchdown drive from the Lions put them up by a field goal. Only down three Justin Fields fumbles at the 5 yard line resulting in the ball being hit out the back of the endzone by a Bears lineman to save the TD by giving up a safety. Lions Win, Bears (cover) +7.5, and the result is Over 48 — (2/3)

TEN @ JAC
Prediction: 23–27
Actual: 14–34

Tennessee is unable to find a win in Jacksonville as they enter a 3-game losing streak. Will Levis finally finds the endzone after back to back games with no touchdowns. He picks up a second TD in garbage time. Tennessee has lost 6 out of 6 road games this season; 0–6 on the road and 3–1 at home. Derrick Henry’s production is a contributing factor. All losses are when Henry has accumulated 75 yards or less on the ground. When the Titans run game is working, they have a better chance of winning. Something to watch out for is Oline health for the titans and run defenses for their competition. But also how do you beat a Jags offense when they are “popping” per Calvin Ridley. TLaw and Ridley connected for 103 yards and a pair of perfectly placed TDs. Trevor Lawrence felt extra on the day running it in for 2 more touchdowns all by himself! Jacksonville Wins, (Covers) -6.5, and Over 39.5 — (2/3)

PIT @ CLE
Prediction: 17–16
Actual: 10–13

It was supposed to be a close, low scoring game and it was just that. I went against all of the calculations picking the Steelers here and it was a mistake. Steelers running backs were carrying momentum and the run game put Pittsburgh in position to make the upset. It was the deplorable attempt at a 2 minute drill from Kenny Pickett that gave the Browns the opportunity to get 48 yards and a go ahead field goal for the win in the end. Jaylen Warren with 129 yards, including a 74 yard touchdown, was the star of the game and he was on the losing side. The Browns defense remains solid but Pickett’s average QBR of 35.7 leaves lots of room for improvement before opponent defense quality enters the equation. Flipside showed a little bit more from Cleveland but got the Steelers score correct. Browns (Win), (Cover) -2.5, and Under 33 — (1/3)

ARI @ HOU
Prediction: 20–35
Actual: 16–21

Arizona gave good effort in their upset attempt. Murray has brought a spark to the Cardinals offense and was a part of both Arizona TDs. Even Arizona’s defense contributed by shutting out the Texans in the second half and picking up a pair of interceptions in the 4th quarter! Not quite enough as Stroud and Co. put up enough in the first two quarters to outlast the Cardinals. Tank Dell and Devin Singletary (not quite 150 yards this game) both had standout performances and a TD each on the Texans side. Texans Win, Arizona (Covers) +6, and it stayed (Under) 48 — (1/3)

LAC @ GB
Prediction: 28–21
Actual: 20–23

I just can’t get it right with the Packers! Also, how the Chargers lost is *enter Jackie Chan My Brain is Full of F@!# meme*. In a surprising move Los Angeles did not fire Brandon Staley; maybe they’re waiting to see if New England chooses to let Belichick go. Packers lost Aaron Jones in the matchup to an MCL sprain but might be able to bounce back quite quickly —though, no, not on Thanksgiving. A bit closer than the flipside calculation with LA losing by only 3. GB (Wins), Covers +3, and comes in just (Under) 44 — (1/3)

LV @ MIA
Prediction: 17–27
Actual: 13–20

My pick of the week Miami comes through with a single possession win, staying within my expectations. This is the lowest scoring win for Miami on the season. The Dolphins averaged 39 points in their wins on the season entering the game. Achane did make his return but only ran for a single yard in the contest. Raiders defense holding the Dolphins to just 20 points is quite a feat; picking up 2 fumble recoveries and an interception. The Las Vegas offense was unable to capitalize though. Miami Wins, Raiders Cover +13.5, and the game goes Under 45.5 — (3/3) 🔥

TB @ SF
Prediction: 20–30
Actual: 14–27

The 49ers come out focused on getting to Baker Mayfield. They forced 2 turnovers and picked up 4 sacks which will move Baker down the list of least sacked QBs a spot or two. The Bucs got to Purdy as well with 4 sacks but no turnovers. Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey both had over 100 yards each and TDs. San Francisco Wins, Push on the line at 13, and just (Under) 41 — (1/2)

SEA @ LAR
Prediction: 24–21
Actual: 16–17

So many games were won with a last play field goal last week. The Seahawks had a chance to claim a similar victory in LA but the kick errs wide right. The 2 division losses to the Rams could prove costly down the stretch for Seattle. Geno Smith showing some grit after sustaining a throwing arm injury only to return just in time to lead the Hawks’s 2-minute drill. The Seahawks led the game through three quarters. Stafford also spent a moment on the sideline recovering from a punishing hit to the chest as he threw for an interception early in the 4th quarter. Cooper Kupp and Kenneth Walker were also injured in the game. Closer and lower than the flipside prediction here. Rams (Win), (Cover) -2.5, and score is Under 47 — (1/3)

NYJ @ BUF
Prediction: 17–23
Actual: 6–32

New York finally decides to bench Zach Wilson and pass the torch on to Tim Boyle in an effort to save their playoff hopes. Buffalo entered the week on the brink of a losing streak and firing their Offensive Coordinator after the loss to Denver. Josh Allen turns the offense around and Khalil Shakir has his best game of the season so far with an 81-yard TD catch and run! On the Buffalo defense Taylor Rapp sustained a neck injury and left on a stretcher; he was able to move his hands and he was leaving thankfully. Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson also left the game with head injuries. Even with the three injuries to the defense, Buffalo was able to keep the Jets from crossing the goal line. Buffalo Wins, (Cover) -7.5, and (Under) 39.5 — (1/3)

MIN @ DEN
Prediction: 24–20
Actual: 20–21

It was slated to be a close game and they made it as close as you could get without ending in a tie. Russell Wilson has started to turn the season around after a 1–5 start to now even at 5–5 with this 4th straight win. He was able to connect with Courtland Sutton for the go ahead points late in the 4th quarter; 8th red zone touchdown catch on the year! Wil Lutz also played a critical role in the win with 5 field goals making up the other 15 Denver points. Dobbs gets his first loss as a Viking but extends his rushing touchdown streak to 5 games. Denver (Wins), Vikings Cover +2.5, and a push at 41 — (1/2)

PHI @ KC
Prediction: 21–27
Actual: 21–17

The Super Bowl rematch ends with a bit of revenge and the Eagles win in Kansas City. The Chiefs have struggled to put up points in the second half all season and end the game with 0 points in the second half here. A rare fumble from Travis Kelce put an end to the only KC red zone opportunity in the second half. Jalen Hurts puts the game on his back as he rushes for both Eagles touchdowns and the eventual win in the match. The Chiefs were able to sack Jalen Hurts 5 times but it wasn’t enough to stop the Brotherly Shove when it mattered. Flipside was close at 24–21. Eagles (Win), (Cover), and (Under) 45.5 — (0/3)

Rough week as I left everything to the last minute. Will dive in earlier on Saturday and see if I can’t get the numbers up in Week 12!

Week:
Wins — 7/13 (54%)
Spread — 4/13 (31%)
O/U — 6/12 (50%)

Running Total:
Wins — 34/54 (63%)📉
Spread — 22/51 (43%)📉
O/U — 25/49 (51%) ~

Disclaimer: Most of the above is a personal opinion and carries no guarantee. As a human, I make mistakes. In my error, I owe nothing. The team names and trademarks utilized in the narrative above do not imply nor aim to imply any association with their respective owners. AI was used to generate the images in these posts but not used for any research or content generation.