Finally, A Big Board: Tier 6 (#24-#41)
Other posts: Tiers 1–3, Tier 4–5, Tier 7.
Tier 6: Meh Backups
24. Jeremy Morgan
If (and at this point it seems like when) Morgan goes un-drafted it will be a true shame. In college he could 3 & D but the question is whether he is actually good enough at either to translate to the NBA. With defense, the answer is yes. He makes up for below-average athleticism with naturally reactive feet and phenomenal hands.
On offense, the answer is probably not so much. Forced into a creation role (26% usage) for Northern Iowa this year he shot a measly 44.7% from two and 35.5% from three. That is despite being a senior at the Missouri Valley Conference level.
Morgan is theoretically a great role player because he can shoot, pass, and play defense. In practice his way below par athleticism makes it difficult for him to translate his skills. Compared to Dozier and Thornwell he’s a tier below defensively and not all that different on offense. Still, he’s significantly undervalued by the draft community. Guys who can play defense and maybe not suck on offense are worth a first round pick.
25. Edmond Sumner
Sumner has fell down draft boards due to his ACL injury, but that is almost always a silly reason for a prospect to fall. Particularly once you get past the top-10 and everyone is full of risk.
Sumner profiles as a worse shooting but better defensive Jordan Clarkson. He is similarly great at using his athleticism to play downhill and get to the basket. Clarkson is overrated as a potential starter. He is an okay backup point guard. Sumner is good enough at getting to the rack and playing defense that he should stick in the league as a backup.
26. T.J. Leaf
Leaf is a legit good offensive player. He’s got skill, athleticism, and feel in abundance. Don’t expect him to shoot as well in the NBA. His form is flat and his 67.9% FT% is concerning. Expect him to be a real plus on offense who knows how to make decisions in traffic and excels catching on the short roll.
Being good on offense might inflate his trade value some, but he is bad enough on defense to depress his value. The guy is weak, upright in space, short armed, and not all that smart either. Traditional power forwards will be able to bully him and if a team downsizes he can get abused. He is good enough on offense to be borderline useful/mediocre, but since he will struggle to stay on the floor in the playoffs and lacks upside he falls into this tier. Markkanen is similarly bad on defense, but at least he is a little more positionally flexible. Not to mention that he is a tier above as an offensive force.
27. Justin Jackson
Jackson’s consistent mock placement as a borderline lottery pick doesn’t really add up. He is really going to struggle with the physicality of the NBA on both ends of the floor and has shown no signs of improving his body. Additionally, he is flat out slow for an NBA wing without overtly good instincts to make up for it.
Based on last year’s sample alone it is fair to project him as a big time shooter, but his non-shooting offensive game will struggle against better athletes and he is not an elite shooter. Add in poor defense and you get a player that looks something like Bojan Bogdanovic. That is a wing worth drafting at some point. Just not near the lottery.
28. Ike Anigbogu
Some consider Ike a high upside pick because of his insane youth but it is hard to see where the upside lies in his game. Dramatic offensive improvement is a pipe dream. Improvement in his feel and awareness could allow him to be a Bismack Biyombo-type, but is that really that enticing of a player?
I don’t hate Ike compared to the other bigs. At least he can play some defense. He’s just not good enough on offense or outlier good enough on defense to be much more than Biyombo.
29. Matthias Lessort
Lessort fits in the Tarik Black/Montrezl Harrell group of small 5’s who are great in pick-and-roll but are only situationally playable. I haven’t watched much of Lessort so I feel less strongly about this opinion than others. Everything I’ve seen suggests he has a place in the league but not a particularly useful one. Thus, he winds up as a late first rounder.
30. Tyler Lydon
Lydon is a better shooter than Leaf but worse at everything else on offense. On defense, he can do a little more as a rim protector and is lighter on his feet but struggles with awareness a ton. He can provide value with his shooting and offensive game but it would almost always be better to play a wing in his stead.
31. Jonah Bolden
Like with Lessort, I haven’t watched enough of Bolden to be too sure of my opinion. Bolden is a freakish athlete. What is concerning is how he only started looking like a prospect when he switched from the NCAA to the Adriatic League. That suggests he may be getting by on his athletic advantage more than anything else.
Bolden is another true power forward type and unless you think he’s going to be starter good those guys just aren’t very valuable. Cam Oliver’s shot blocking, strength, and production against better competition are what put him a clear step above Bolden.
32. Caleb Swanigan
Even if he continues to lose weight, it is hard to envision there ever being a time in the future where Swanigan can guard NBA opponents. He is not quick enough to keep up with nearly anybody at power forward. If you play him at center you kill your rim protection and pick-and-roll defense.
The obvious comparison is Jared Sullinger. Swanigan is actually better on offense than Sully. Maybe not quite as good in the post in college but more versatile as a passer and shooter which matters for his NBA role. Unfortunately, Sullinger has always been surprisingly light on his feet, and Swanigan does not share that same quality. A better offensive but even worse defensive Sullinger is not all that exciting of a player.
33. John Collins
How John Collins is in the lottery of DX’s latest top-100 is beyond me. He is super athletic and can legitimately score the ball. He also has zero court awareness on both ends of the floor resulting in an inability to pass or play defense.
It’s not that Collins is slow on defense. He’s actually super quick for a big guy. Nonetheless, nearly every time someone attacks him he is slow to respond to their movement and ends up getting burned. He pretty much has to be a center in the NBA if you want value from his offensive game but in such a role he’s going to kill a team’s defense. Enes Kanter with more athleticism but equally bad instincts and without the elite rebounding is simply not a helpful player. He could be a guy to get overpaid though because he can create scoring opportunities via his burst.
34. Isaiah Hartenstein
Hartenstein is big, reasonably athletic, and pretty skilled for someone his size. As a result, he is going to find a place in the NBA. His downfall is that he plays with inconsistent energy and is a bad decision maker.
At power forward he is not a good enough shooter. At center he is just another big guy who is not giving your team an edge with plus perimeter defense or rim protection.
35. Jake Wiley
Wiley is one of my favorite sleepers in the draft. He’s only 6'7, but his 7'0 wingspan and explosive athleticism allows him to profile as a true power forward or even a small ball 5. The key for him will be expanding his range. Right now he’s an 82.8% free throw shooter but only took seven threes all season.
He doesn’t have massive upside due to his frame, age, and shoddy basketball IQ, but his combination of freakish athleticism with some shooting and passing potential makes him a good bet to exceed expectations.
36. D.J. Wilson
Wilson is a really talented perimeter player for a big guy. The things is, he’s also a really bad “big guy.” He doesn’t rebound at all. He’s only decent as a shot blocker, and he gets bullied inside by any competent big guy. So, when a team is putting Wilson on the floor they should be asking themselves what is he actually bringing to the table that a wing cannot?
He’ll stick in the league for at least a little due to his intriguing skill/athleticism combo. Sadly, like many other power forwards I’d rather just play a wing.
37. Tony Bradley
Bradley is one of those guys who fares well by statistical models because he offensive rebounds the crap out of the ball and doesn’t completely suck at everything else. Where does he actually fit on the floor though? He doesn’t protect the rim or guard on the perimeter super well, and his offensive game is rudimentary.
A poor man’s Tristan Thompson is not all that exciting of a player. (this also applies to another guy on this list we’re about to get to).
38. Jarrett Allen
At first glance, it might seem counter-intuitive for such a big gap to exist between Patton and Allen. They both excel at scoring the ball efficiently with their length and athleticism but have trouble putting their tools to use on the defensive end.
What separates them is that while Patton’s court awareness (on both ends) is inconsistent Allen’s is practically nonexistent. Add in Patton’s growth trajectory and you get a big gap in ranking of two pretty similar prospects.
39. Ivan Rabb
In case you haven’t picked up on it by now, the problem with many bigs in this class is they are caught between the 4 and 5 positions. No one fits that bill more than Rabb.
His offensive feel for the game is fantastic. His numbers underrate him due to the atrocious spacing situation at Cal. Unfortunately, there still is no clear fit for him in the NBA.
40. Bam Adebayo
Yes, all these bigs are grouped together for a reason. They aren’t truly terrible prospects. Many of them should stick in the NBA. It is possible none of them ever are difference makers on a good NBA team.
Bam is athletic enough and good enough at guarding on the perimeter to stick in the NBA, but again, is a poor man’s Tristan Thompson really that valuable? He is also someone whose college production was aided by simply being more developed than most of his competition which won’t translate to the NBA.
41. Luke Kennard
Kennard is someone who actually would be valuable in the NBA if his game translates, but just seems an exceedingly unlikely bet to translate. His offensive game is predicated on creating for himself in the lane via an array of pump fakes and clever footwork. He’s as good at this as anyone, but in the NBA those slivers of space he created are going to disappear and it’s doubtful teams will even give him the opportunity to look for such shots.
The other thing that doesn’t get talked about enough with Kennard is how hard it is for him to get his jumper off. His release point is quite low and he also takes a second to get set before he fires away. As a result, his three-point volume is less than other sharpshooters. Kennard shot 6.1 three-point attempts per 40 minutes. Malik Monk, Justin Jackson, Jamal Murray, and Buddy Hield all shot above 8 attempts.
Such a difference is really important. It changes the type of value teams can realistically expect Kennard’s shooting to provide. When you add in that Kennard is about as bad as a wing prospect can be defensively he seems like a bust waiting to happen. Drafting him in the lottery would be a big mistake.
Go on to to my post on tier #7, players #42-#70.
