Finally, A Big Board: Tier 7 (#42-#70)
Previous Posts: Tiers 1–3, Tier 4–5, Tier 6.
Tier 7: Fringe NBA or End of Bench Guys
42. Nigel Hayes
I want to love Hayes. He makes smart decisions with the ball, he uses his frame well against bigger opponents, and his shot has potential. His downfall is that he is a bit stiff hipped and struggles to guard in space. Maybe he can be a poor man’s Jared Dudley but he’s starting way behind Dudley in shooting and a little bit behind in almost everything else.
43. Deonte Burton
Burton, like Hayes, is an undersized power forward who should be getting a little more love. He’s got the strength to hold up some defensively (not as much as Hayes though) and he’s a lot quicker than his frame would suggest. On offense, he can pass shoot and dribble like a wing. His undoing is that he’s a bit of a ball hog who loves to catch, hold, and hoist up bad shots. If a team could get him to really change his mindset he could be a rotation guy.
44. Chris Boucher
Boucher joins Burton in the really old senior that nonetheless deserves to be drafted camp. The legitimate intersection of three-point shooting, shot blocking, and agility is just too rare. That being said he’s an extremely situational prospect due to his wildly skinny frame and underdeveloped court awareness.
45. Semi Ojeleye
What makes Semi such a better undersized 4 prospect than Hayes or Burton? He’s a much better leaper, which does matter, but his functional athleticism in beating guys on offense or guarding on defense is worse than either guy. Scouts traditionally overrate guys who can shoot and dunk well because they mistake that as a sign of defensive aptitude. Semi is somebody who does those two things well and knows how to play within a team but doesn’t offer enough as a defender or passer to justify his first-round projections.
46. Nigel Williams-Goss
With Williams-Goss his NBA future centers around whether or not he’s quick enough to translate his game to the NBA level. He’s a smart and reactive defender, can shoot, and is a good decision maker on the offensive end. Next to a primary wing initiator he could be a Dellavedova type. He’s probably not quite quick enough to cut it at the NBA level though.
47. Davon Reed
Reed is the wing version of Williams-Goss. Both have strong and long frames to go along with a skill-set that would theoretically allow them to be 3 & D guys. Again, he’s probably just not quite athletic enough or good at any one thing to make his game work at the next level. At this point in the draft it’s worth a gamble he surprises and ends up being a rotation wing.
48. Johnathan Motley
Motley is basically a worse version of Ivan Rabb who also happened to play zone all of his college career making it hard to project his defensive awareness as a big guy. Not terrible, but nothing to get excited about.
49. Tyler Dorsey
Dorsey is quite similar to Malik Monk across the board, just a lot less quick and sudden. That gap in athleticism echoes across their entire games though and allows Monk to stay in front of guys better, get open for his own shot easier, make contested shots, and beat guys off the bounce just as well despite being a worse ball handler. If a team is desperate for shooting he might play in the NBA but he won’t be bringing any sort of value due to his defense.
50. Anzejs Pasecniks
I will start out with the important disclaimer that I really haven’t watched much of Pasecniks. Still, he seems like another version of Justin Patton/Jarrett Allen whose primary strength is their fluidity rolling to the rim. He’s bigger than either guy but he’s also less athletic, older, and just as bad or worse in terms of IQ despite the age gap. Being huge doesn’t actually make him a better defensive prospect if he can’t get off the ground and doesn’t move that well in a stance. Not sure what there is to really be excited about but admittedly haven’t seen enough to truly say.
51. Luke Kornet
Kornet can shoot and is big and actually pretty smart on defense. He’s not very athletic at all but that combination is enough to make him mildly interesting. Poor mans Mehmet Okur anyone?
52. Monte Morris
Ah Monte Morris, oh I how I want to love you. Beloved by draft models since day one due to his insane ability to limit his turnovers in relation to his assists. The thing is if you look at his freshman year compared to Tyler Ennis you see he’s a worse version of a guy who was also beloved by draft models but failed to work in the NBA. Drafting “game managers” who can’t carry a heavy offensive burden and aren’t very good on defense is not a way to extract value from the backup point guard spot. He is smart enough on both ends to deserve a selection though.
53. Frank Jackson
Jackson is someone I’m prepared to be proven wrong on but really don’t understand the fascination with. He’s explosive in a combine setting and does occasionally flash that explosiveness in game, but at the end of the day he’s just not that good a player. His “point guard skills” of knowing how to run an offense and creating for others are terrible. He’s not a ball hog but when he does shoot he oftentimes throws up garbage. On defense, he doesn’t know to utilize his athleticism at all. He can get to the basket and make shots so maybe I’m underrating him but his flaws are real bad.
54. Frank Mason
Compared to Yogi Ferrell he is slightly worse on offense due to not being quite as good a shooter and a bit better on defense to his more compact frame. Ferrell found the perfect situation in Dallas and still might not be a useful NBA player. Also, the gap in shooting is important because if you’re playing a guy like Mason you’re hoping for instant offense.
55. Dillon Brooks
Brooks is an even better offensive version of Deonte Burton but a significantly worse defensive prospect. He’s both undersized and not that quick. He competes on that end but it is just really hard to envision who exactly he is going to guard. I feel like I might be too low on him because his offensive package is for real but role players who can’t play defense are rarely helpful guys.
56. Kadeem Allen
Allen is another guy who I wish I could be higher on. The dude can freaking play defense and his shot is probably for real. Why can’t he be a 3 & D point guard? Well, he is as bad on offense for a point guard as you will ever see. Like way worse than Dellavedova, Garrett Temple, or other similar defense first guards. When you add in his age (24.5) it becomes difficult to see his defense translating to an elite level. Even if played in a minimal off-ball role his off-the-dribble skills for a point guard are so bad that he will wind up hurting a team.
57. Thomas Bryant
Big guys who can’t protect the rim or guard in space are a bad bet for NBA success. Bryant doesn’t do either of those things, and he doesn’t make up for it with outlier defensive IQ or offensive skill. I have no idea why he has consistently been mocked as a borderline first-rounder.
58. Wesley Iwundu
Iwundu is a classic case of vertical athleticism being confused for functional athleticism. He is long, can jump, and has shown some ability to pass and shoot. That combination has been a good identifier for underrated guys in past drafts. The issue is he’s incredibly turnover prone and despite his leaping and length he’s not actually good on defense. Off-the-ball he gets lost frequently, and on it he takes poor angles and is slow to react to his man. Plays like this are inexcusable, and a frequent occurrence with Iwundu.
Iwundu is a nice sleeper in theory but upon watching he’s not actually good.
59. Ben Moore
Moore is a jump shot away from having value. He’s not really on draft radars but he’s both fluidly athletic and a very smart player on both ends. If he were big enough to play the 5 he could easily be as good a prospect as Jordan Bell. His shot is an unlikely bet — he’s only attempted five threes across his college career and is a 66% free throw shooter, but even being a mild threat from three would make him a backup 4. You’re not going to find much better than a bet on someone’s shot at this point on the board.
60. Terrance Ferguson
Possibly the most overrated prospect in the draft. His only NBA skill is shooting and he’s only an average shooter. He can jump really high but it doesn’t translate to any offensive skill or defensive effectiveness. I haven’t watched a ton of his tape but I would be shocked if he turns into an NBA player.
61. Devin Robinson
Another player who is nice in theory but not all that good in practice. He’s vertically athletic but due to his high hips he struggles to get in a stance and guard. 3 & D wings/small ball fours are only valuable if they actually play defense and Robinson won’t be able to fulfill that end of the equation unless he drastically improves his flexibility.
62. Kyle Kuzma
Kuzma is a classic why not just play a true wing instead guy? He can add some value as a rebounder but he is a turnstile of a defender with no advantage in offensive game on a wing. His game looks fluid so teams might overrate him but he’s not a good investment of minutes.
63. Damyean Dotson
At this point in the draft basically everyone I’m ranking are vertically athletic guys who can shoot but don’t do anything else. These guys are uniformly overrated but wings are more deserving of being drafted than the point guards or bigs available at this point on the board. Dotson can shoot but shows no signs of actually being able to play defense and can’t pass the ball at all.
64. Jarron Blossomgame
Blossomgame actually manages to fail both the shooting and defense portion of the equation. His court awareness on each end of the floor is poor and he doesn’t react well to opponents movements. If his shot were to come around he would be better than some of the guys ahead of him here because he is a little more fluid attacking off the bounce.
65. V.J. Beachem
Beachem is this year’s Anthony Brown clone. Again, the question is can he do literally anything other than shoot and look athletic from a standstill? His college sample would indicate the answer is no.
66. Malcolm Hill
Hill is kind of an even worse version of Davon Reed where he can do a little bit of everything but doesn’t do anything all that well. He is better as a shooter but also worse as a defender. Still, I’d rather draft a wing!
67. Alec Peters
I could easily be too low on Peters because I haven’t watched a ton but does a worse version of Doug McDermott really sound appealing? Not sure how he’s better than Steve Novak and Novak wouldn’t cut it in today’s smaller NBA.
68. Kobi Simmons
Kobi Simmons is super fast and I do have a soft spot for super fast guys. That’s the only reason he’s ranked here at all. He’s yet to show a consistent jump shot, distribution skills, or defensive competence. Speed kills but that is a difficult hill to climb.
69. L.J. Peak
Peak also falls in the Malcolm Hill/Davon Reed group of being theoretically solid all-around but not actually good at anything. Peak is a little more explosive than those guys but not as good a shooter and not as good on the defensive end either. A lot of people have him as a sleeper but when I watch him I fail to see much on either end. His one real positive is his passing is better than either Reed or Hill.
70. Kris Jenkins
Jenkins gets no draft hype because he’s chubby looking but he’s not much different of a wing prospect than the 10–15 guys above him here. Some of whom are projected as actual early second round picks. He can shoot and he is smart on the defensive end about maximizing his poor physical tools. Unlikely to actually translate due to his poor athleticism but he’s not *that* different of a prospect from Justin Jackson.
Everyone Else
I’m stopping my rankings here mostly because everyone is so close at this point that it doesn’t make any sense to rank guys. Everyone who is not ranked are either guys who just really don’t interest me (Isaiah Briscoe, Isaac Humphries, Peter Jok, Antonio Blakeney, Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Melo Trimble, Austin Nichols, Dwayne Bacon, Andrew White, Isaiah Hicks, Derrick Walton, James Blackmon, and more) or guys I haven’t watched that closely enough but don’t seem interesting enough to garner further viewing (Ish Wainwright, Lorenzo Bonam, Vlatko Cancar, Alberto Abalde, Aleksander Vezenkov, Amida Brimah, Eric Mika, Alpha Kaba, Antonius Cleveland, Jajuan Johnson, and others).
If you made it this far, I wish you a hearty congratulations. Please email/tweet me any questions!
