Marc‘s NFL Week 10 Predictions
Marc Delucchi gives his predictions for every NFL game in Week 10 with probabilities and adjusted break-even betting lines.
Every year, I enjoy making NFL individual game predictions. Over the last few seasons, FiveThirtyEight has run a prediction contest that allowed individuals to compete against each other and their ELO model. Last season marked the first time I participated, but I finished in the 97th percentile among all competitors.
I’m generally skittish about making official predictions early in the season because I tend to embarrass myself. So after waiting for the first third of the season to finish, I’ve been bringing my predictions to Medium since Week 7.
The rules are simple, pick the winner of every game with a probability that I deem appropriate. Then, I will evaluate myself on three different metrics — first, a standard Win-Loss record based on my picks. Second, I’ll give the percentage chance I give every favorite of winning and use FiveThirtyEight’s weighted scoring system. Third, I’ll keep track of how a hypothetical bet of $100 would pan out whenever my probability differs more than 10% from Caesars’ betting-line implied probability.
Here are my results on the season heading into Week 10:
Win-Loss: 26–14–2
FiveThirtyEight: +205.6
Betting: 8–7 (+316.90)
Week 10 Predictions
Indianapolis Colts (5–3) at Tennessee Titans (6–2)
The Colts have a strong defense, but I thought Ryan Tannehill would have a bounce-back game. I’m still not a big believer in Philip Rivers and the Colts offense, but we’re beginning to see the Titans and Tannehill regress. They’re still a playoff team, but they’ll need to reinvigorate Tannehill and their defense to go very far.
Pick: Titans (Probability to win: 58% Break-even betting line: -138)
Result: Wrong (Colts 34–17)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–3) at Carolina Panthers (3–6)
The Buccaneers are coming off easily their worst loss of the season against the Saints. They are one of the most talented teams in the league and most betting lines are expecting a strong bounce back against a less-talented, but solid fundamental Panthers team. I’m not as sold. The Bucs are clearly the favorites, but I think there’s a chance Tom Brady’s limitations are beginning to be exposed. Could they be heading for a big losing streak?
Pick: Bucs (54% -117)
Houston Texans (2-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-3)
Baker Mayfield continues to struggle and the gap between him and Deshaun Watson is huge. Of course, everything else on both of their roster’s swings in the other direction. If you follow my predictions, you know how high I am on Watson, but I think Cleveland deserves the slightest edge.
Pick: Browns (52% -108)
Washington Football Team (2–6) at Detroit Lions (3–5)
Matt Patricia is a terrible coach, Ron Rivera is pretty good. That and defensive line play is the only thing in Washington’s favor. They could disrupt Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense enough to make it close, but it’s hard to expect much from Alex Smith. Smith completed 75% of his passes last week, but that was against the New York Giants.
Pick: Lions (60% -150)
Green Bay Packers (6–2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1–7)
Easy pick. Even though I’m not very high on the Packers, the Jaguars are the second or third-worst team in the league.
Pick: Packers (87% -671)
Philadelphia Eagles (3–4–1) at New York Giants (2–7)
The Eagles should coast through the NFC East at this point and the Giants are absolutely terrible. Placing a lot of confidence in any NFC East team feels wrong, but the Eagles are the right call.
Pick: Eagles (64% -178)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8–0) at Cincinnati Bengals (2–5–1)
I reeeeaaaallllyyy want to pick the Bengals here. They’ve been close and even won some games against good teams. I’m still not fully sold on the Steelers after barely beating the Cowboys and think they could get pushed. They’re my pick to win, but I’m far enough below the line I’ll be recommending the Bengals as a bet.
Pick: Steelers (60% -150)
Buffalo Bills (7–2) at Arizona Cardinals (5–3)
I love Kyler Murray and a lot of things about the Cardinals. I still think Josh Allen regression is coming, which makes me really nervous about my pick. With that said, the Bills are a really well rounded team. The Cardinals defense has quietly been really good this year under DC Vance Joseph (*cough* head coaching candidate *cough*), but I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves.
Pick: Bills (55% -122)
Denver Broncos (3–5) at Las Vegas Raiders (5–3)
The Raiders aren’t going to make a deep postseason run, but they’ve quietly been a really solid team. Denver has not.
Pick: Raiders (62% -163)
Seattle Seahawks (6–2) at Los Angeles Rams (5–3)
The rest of the Seahawks roster is beginning to hamstring Seattle. Russell Wilson is still is one of the two best quarterbacks in football (and yes, I think he has a case to be ahead of Mahomes), but he can only do so much. The Rams have a pretty good roster and are coming off a bye week, but I think bettors are over correcting a bit on both. Lines are surprisingly favoring the Rams, but I’d lean with the road team.
Pick: Seattle (54% -117)
San Francisco 49ers (4–5) at New Orleans Saints (6–2)
These were the two best teams in the NFC to start the year and I still think there’s an outside shot for the 49ers to make a late-season surge through the postseason. With that said, San Francisco is just too depleted by injuries to be considered a close competitor. I do think there’s an outside shot the 49ers secondary causes problems for Drew Brees and Kyle Shanahan schemes the offense well enough to pull out the victory. I think that possibility is higher than most lines are putting it, but it would be overzealous to call the 49ers a favorite.
Pick: Saints (68% -212)
Baltimore Ravens (6–2) at New England Patriots (3–5)
The Ravens are a really good team. The Patriots are competent when Cam Newton plays like he’s in his prime again, but Baltimore can win even if Lamar Jackson has an off game.
Pick: Ravens (71% -245)
Los Angeles Chargers (2–6) at Miami Dolphins (5–3)
Everyone knows I was high on Tua Tagovailoa before he started an NFL game, but the Chargers are a far better team than their record shows and Justin Herbert has far exceeded my expectations. I still think Miami is the favorite, but I’m not as confident as I want to be.
Pick: Dolphins (58% -138)
Minnesota Vikings (3–5) at Chicago Bears (5–4)
I swear the Bears are better than they’ve played. The defense is really good and if they could just get 40th percentile play from their offense they’d probably be 7–2. With that said, Nick Foles has been bad and might not have any spark in him. The Vikings have had moments of above-average on both sides of the ball, but have more often been mediocre. This is an evenly matched game, but the Vikings seem to play into Chicago’s strengths.
Pick: Bears (53% -113)
This Week’s Bet Picks
Panthers +240, Texans +170, Bengals +300, Bills +125, Bears +150
I don’t try to pick so many underdogs, and this could easily be an 0–5 week. However, I think lines are beginning to feel a bit too confident in favorites and we should see some big upsets over the next two weeks.
