Gold (XAU/USD)Analyses and Reviews for April 2024
My analyses, trade setups, and reviews for Spot Gold
Gold is a pair I’ve had some good success with. I’ll be doing April’s daily trading analyses in this post. I’ve done US30 analyses in my previous post.
I’ll start with higher timeframes first.
Gold Monthly View
Gold is extremely bullish now on the monthly timeframe. January and February were slow. But in March and April gold was rallying. April has formed another all time high at 2353.90. It is likely to be broken again this month.
Gold Weekly View
The weekly view also shows a strong bull run. After the high at 2146 was broken. Gold is now trading in uncharted highs. There is no historical data to the leftside for technical analysts to work with.
Gold Day’s Analysis — Mon 8/4/24
Daily view is strongly bullish except for a recent bear candle.
It is best to look for mostly Buys to trade with the trend. But we need to zoom into H4 for better understanding.
Mon 8/4/24, Gold H4 View
H4 shows price retraced into the order block. And it is now rising. H4 is bullish.
Mon 8/4/24, Gold H1 View
This is the H1 view. I took a sell trade earlier today because I saw price moving into the OB and into discount, past 50.0 fib level. Price went as far as 61.8 and started rising. H1 is bearish because it closed below a recent low.
So far, we’ve noted Daily = Bullish, H4 = Bullish, H1 = Bearish. We cannot enter a buy yet, because H1 is bearish. But we can aim for an early entry in a lower timeframe.
Mon 8/4/24, Gold M15 View
I am going lower to M15. We can see that M15 is also still bearish. Price hasn’t closed above a recent high.
Today, I will set my alert and wait for a market structure break to the upside on M15 within or above the OB, before I enter with a Buy trade. We hope from M15 it will cause H1 to become bullish as well. It will be taken in the New York session if the setup forms.
If the setup doesn’t form, I will not take a trade tonight.
Mon 8/4/24, H1 Engulfing Sell Fail and Simple Engulfing Buy Zones
I’ve also realized an H1 engulfing sell that failed. And another simple engulfing buy below. These are potential strong buy zones . We will monitor these zones for a buy.
Update: Review of Mon 8/4/24 Trades
Gold price moved as we expected, from our zone. I took an early entry on an M5 break of structure but wasn’t confident and closed it to wait for an M15 break of structure. Because I closed early, I missed out on the big up move. I opened another trade after this. Unfortunately price was slow by then so I carried my positions into the next day, and closed them in the morning. I didn’t note movements in pips, so I will do that in the next analyses.
Tue 9/4/24 — Day’s Analysis
Gold has moved as we predicted yesterday. It has formed a new all time high today and is now retracing. Here is price against our setup markings from yesterday.
Let’s look at the new setup for tonight.
Daily = Bullish, H4=Bullish, H1=Bullish.
My setup for tonight is simple. I will wait for a buy at these two order blocks. One is above 50.0 fib and the other is at 61.8 fib so will be in discount. I will set alerts for price entering those zones then wait for bullish BoS. It may not happen tonight during New York. I will not take sells, even though price is dropping now. I don’t think there will be a large bullish move, since the ATH was created in London session. Price might consolidate, but I will be on standby for a BUY if it does move up with a BoS.
Update: Review of Tue 9/4/24
I am now reviewing yesterday’s trades.
Price moved as we predicted. It went down to the second order block just below the 50.0 fib level and rose up. From my end, I was impatient and didn’t trust my setup and took many early entries. I also ended up taking some SELLs which I said I wouldn’t do. My last trade was the setup which ended successfully. I closed the next morning.
Because of my overtrading and exhibited FOMO, I am taking tonight off (Wed 10/4/24). I will not be trading. I will take a rest and review my trading psychology.
There is high impact news at 10:30 PM tonight and 4AM tomorrow so I will stay out of the market. Save capital to trade another day.
Thu 11/4/24 Day’s Analysis
There’s no clear setup for Gold tonight. Price is now bouncing off an old engulfing buy zone or order block. It is not fresh, so might be broken soon. Day=Bullish, H4=Bullish, H1=Bearish. There is a fair value gap, marked in brown, but I don’t know if price can push down. If it does, it will break through the FVG toward the OB at 2311 down to 2306. There’s red news at 10:30PM so that might happen. I will take a sell then, from the break of the upper OB when BoS takes place on M15. This downward move will take out yesterday’s low at 2319. If price will be drop then the current upmove should turn at 61.8 fib level to be in discount.
Like I said, tonight is unclear. So if price moves up instead, then it will break the fib levels past 70.0 and move to take out yesterday’s high of 2360. If price moves up, I will attempt a buy entry, but will exit if M15 bearish BoS happens.
Update: Review of Thu 11/4/24
Gold moved bullish yesterday and formed an all time high. This morning it kept rising. This is due to fundamentals, there is news of tensions of war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.
Fri 12/4/24 — Day’s Analysis
Day=Bullish, H4=Bullish, H1=Bullish. We will wait for a retracement to 50.0 fib level around 2363 which also lies in an H4 FVG, and take a BUY when there is bullish BoS.
Update: Review of Fri 12/4/24
Gold went on to form another all time high on Friday. I did not enter a buy because you don’t know where it will rise to. It then dropped into the FVG and went past 50.0 and 70.0 fib levels. I also did not enter a sell. But it would’ve been 500 pips sell. I woke up early in the morning and noticed a retracement from the OB so tried a few buy entries. It wasn’t that strong since volume was already out.
All in all, Gold has given me good setups and trades this week.
Mon 15/4/24 — Day’s Analysis
Day=Bullish, H4=Bullish, H1=Bearish
Tonight, we will wait for a liquidity sweep on H4 or H1, for price to take out the Friday low at 2333 and possibly the Thursday low around 2325. After this, since H1 is bearish we will wait for a bullish break of structure on M15, then check for a third confluence: that price is within an order block, fair value gap, breaker block, or within discount in the equilibrium. A positive push out of the confluence will trigger our entry. We will target old highs and aim for Gold to trade into the H4 fair value gap lying above.
We have high impact USD news tonight at 10:30PM before New York open at 11:30PM so we should see movement then.
But if the predicted setup doesn’t happen tonight, then price may just consolidate on a sideways, and we can expect movement tomorrow.
Update: Review of Mon 15/4/24
Our setup yesterday was perfect. Gold moved exactly as predicted during the New York session after news. It took out Friday and Thursday’s lows then rose up. I opened buy positions and panicked because I didn’t want to lose my profits, so closed early. If I was confident enough I would’ve held some of my positions until they went into the H1 and H4 FVGs.
I guess I panicked and secured because of a personal milestone. My OctaFX account is now in profit! I almost blew my account in March. After growing it with these setups for the last 2 weeks, yesterday I finally surpassed the deposit amount. If I held some positions, I would’ve made bigger profits. But that is trading psychology for me to review and improve on.
Tue 16/4/24 — Day’s Analysis
Today, Gold bias is Day=Bullish, H4=Bullish, H1=Bullish. So we will be looking for a buy. I believe today will be a bullish continuation from yesterday’s move. Yesterday price moved down first and took out Friday and Thursday’s lows in a classic liquidity sweep before rising, so I don’t think Monday’s low will be taken out today. Price will move up.
I’ve marked the fibonacci retracement levels and price is above 38.2. I expect price to move into discount first, past 50.0 fib level. This downward move will also take out the current low at 2362, in a liquidity sweep. It will also be in an H1 order block. When price is there, I will wait for an M5 break of structure to the upside before I enter with a BUY.
We will target today’s current high marked at fib level 0.0, which is 2392 as our first TP. From there I will see if price can go into the order block above, at least the lower bound around 2400. This time, I will hold some positions at break even for this second TP.
We will take our trades in the New York session, which opens at 11:30 PM.
There is no high impact USD news early tonight, so our technicals should hold. But at 3:15 AM Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powel, speaks. So all our positions will need to be closed before this. For now, I will stay away from trading news.
Update: Review of Tue 16/4/24
Yesterday price did not do the initial downward move that I expected. I also, didn’t pay attention to the small FVG and priced stayed some time there before dropping. It didn’t reach my zone. So my setup failed and I didn’t take a buy entry. But I saw price take out other previous 5 candle lows. It never went to the 50.0 fib level, but started rising after 38.2. The bullish run was as we expected. It broke the high formed at open. I missed out on this move. I tried to take a sell from the top just below the FVG with my other account, but it failed and stopped me out. I’ll stick to my setups.
Wed 17/4/24 — Day’s Analysis
Gold made a bullish run at 6PM London Open. My setup tonight is simple. Wait for price to come into discount, past 50.0 fib level. It is now playing within the fair value gap formed. I will wait for it to drop further. It might break the low of the bull candle formed at London open. Price may or may not go into the 61.8 fib level. If it does go, then it will be in an order block. I will wait in either of these two zones at 50.0 or 61.8 fib for a break of structure to the upside on M5. Our bias: Day=Bullish, H4=Bullish, H1=Bullish. So buys will be appropriate. Our targets today: break the current high at 2394 and Tuesday’s high of 2398.
There is no high impact USD news tonight so our technicals should hold.
Update: Review of Wed 17/4/24
I’m typing this on my phone since there’s a power black out at home and my PC can’t be used.
Yesterday’s trade setup played out well. Price dropped to 61.8 fib level then rose up. I took buys and closed at 0.0 fib level. It’s good I closed early. Price didn’t go up to take out Tuesday’s high. Instead, it went the totally opposite direction after taking out the morning high. H1 closed bearish yesterday. This is where timing and execution is important. My setup was perfect in New York open. After that, price action went in the opposite direction so it’s good we didn’t hold any positions.
Update: Review of Thu 18/4/24
I didn’t do a proper setup or analyses last night. The black out continued, and also I wasn’t in the right frame of mind to trade. I did a quick check of the charts and there was no clear setup. Gold was bullish all day and seemed to be ranging in an order block. There was no FVG, no trend, no higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows, no clear way to measure equilibrium. So I didn’t trade, went to sleep. I check around 2:30AM and noticed a downward move so I tried a high risk sell. It moved a little and I closed. Went back to sleep. I hope electricity is back tonight so we can do a proper trade analysis on my PC.
Fri 19/4/24 — Day’s Analysis
Gold’s direction looks unclear on the daily chart. It could be a consolidation on Daily. I never really thought about sideways on daily compared to H1 and H4. Mon=Bullish, Tue= Bullish Doji, Wed=Bearish, Thu=Bullish.
Gold Bias. Day=Bullish, H4=Still Bearish, H1=Bearish. But price has been in a sideways, not in a trend, so can we trust this?
It’s interesting to note that yesterday’s candle did not take out previous day’s highs or lows. It traded within. Today’s earlier movement has already taken out 4 days’ highs, Monday to Thursday. This is due to the Middle East conflict, fundamentals moving Gold prices. Another significant event taking place today is the Bitcoin halving. Will this have any effect on Gold prices?
Can we expect Gold to break today’s high and the all-time high?
This could happen tonight, or it might not. This is an unclear setup. Price is not moving out of an order block from this morning. It has already come from a fair value gap above it.
This is a high risk setup. If M15 has a bullish break of structure, I will enter, but with smaller lots and less positions.
There is no high impact USD news tonight. But it looks like price is being driven by the Middle East conflict now. The technicals are not clear.
Update: Review of Fri 19/4/24
We ended the week on Friday with another profitable trade. Although it was high risk, price did move bullish from the order block. I noticed that it wasn’t strong enough to break the highs, so was content to close at the 15-minute fair value gap I noted above.
Mon 22/4/24 — Days Analysis
I’m writing this update on my phone. My PC is slow tonight.
Let’s check our bias for today. Daily=Bullish but a strong bear candle has formed, H4= Bearish,H1=Bearish.
I would say we look for sells, but I believe a retracement has to take place. There are many fair value gaps formed from the downward move.
Gold is now trading in an order block area. So I’ll wait for an M15 break of structure to the upside and then aim for price to trade up to the FVG around 2370-2380.
This is the same setup on my PC MT5. I am lacking a liquidity sweep condition here, so that may be a problem. For a liquidity sweep within this range, the low of the long candle wick at 2324 will need to be taken out first. But I will wait for the break of structure within or above this order block before entering a BUY trade. I’ve added the fibonacci retracement markings. The middle of the H4 fair value gap is the 61.8 fib level, so I will aim for TP there. Since the bias is bearish, I will in turn open a SELL trade if M5 break of structure to the downside happens in this FVG.
There is no high impact USD news tonight.
Note to self: I will need a proper checklist for my analysis and structure for my daily updates.
Update: Review of Mon 22/4/24
Our setup yesterday failed. Gold made one of the most bearish runs I’ve ever witness in my time trading. No bullish H4 candles until next day, and the drop continued. This is due to news about tensions in the Middle East easing.
This is my last trade for the month. I am going to take the rest of the month off, take a break until we resume in May. I will be reviewing my checklists, trade rules, strategy, risk, money management, mentality and psychology.
