Part 5 of the “5% to Ukraine” opinion piece
Why Russia Needs to Lose
We must not allow fear to control us, but instead hope that the end of the Russian empire will be the start of something better
Part of the 5% to Ukraine opinion piece. The original Norwegian text was written to implore the people of Norway to invest 5% of our sovereign wealth fund in a Ukrainian victory and the future of Europe. It has been translated into English for a wider audience.
Our fear of a change in Russia
For Ukraine to win the war, they must inflict enough suffering to trigger a permanent political change in Russia. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Putin regime must be replaced. They could survive if they are able to change together with the nation. However, a regime change is a possibility.
In the West, there are fears that a new Russian regime could be worse than the current. We must reconcile with the fact that we cannot control others. We are not responsible for their actions, only for our own choices. We can choose to be guided by threats and fear of the unknown, or we can choose to act based on our own values.
We cannot control what happens to Russia if they lose the war, and we shouldn’t attempt to. The political change must come from within Russia, not from the outside. It must come as a result of their own choice to invade Ukraine, not because of Western involvement in Russian politics.
Remember that this has happened before. The West also had no control over what happened in the Soviet Union, when they lost the Cold War and collapsed.
Let’s consider the scenario many fear. With a regime change, the new leader might decide to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. While this is true, we shouldn’t delude ourselves into thinking we can control Putin’s actions. If Putin decides to use nuclear weapons tomorrow, the West cannot stop him — just as we couldn’t stop him from attacking Ukraine in 2014, and again in 2022.
Putin is careful not to directly threaten the West with nuclear weapons, but the previous Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, has done so more than enough on Putin’s behalf. The Russian propaganda machine is also actively normalising the idea of a Russian nuclear attack in the minds of the Russian population. The notion that we we might have more control over Putin than a new leader, is an illusion.
Putin has displayed a willingness to ignore warnings from the West, precisely because they aren’t backed by action. It’s action that Putin fears, action that weakens him and action that gives weight to our warnings.
Let us also not forget that political change can lead to progress in Russia.
Unlike Putin, a new political leadership will not have their fate tied to the outcome of the war. Since it is not their war, they will be able to end it in ways Putin could never accept.
This could be the beginning of a new era in Russian politics, led by a population demanding that the old Russia is changed to something better.
We must not let uncertainty stop us from acting — from doing what is right. Uncertainty must not stop us from deciding who we are.
When Empires Lose Wars it Creates a Better World
Historically, empires that lose imperial wars tend to behave better in the global community. Let’s take a quick look at European history.
In a perfect world, the horrors of World War II should have taught Europe that war and oppression had no place in the future. The war should have given rise to a wave of enlightened thinking, making us free all European colonies and begin the European cooperation project through the EU. Unfortunately, this isn’t what happened.
European colonial powers ceased to be empires because they lost wars against their colonies, or because they understood they couldn’t win wars against them.
The Netherlands had to lose in Indonesia (1945–1949) before a 350-year tradition of colonization was replaced by a period of decolonization. France had to lose the Algerian War (1954–1962) and see the collapse of the French Fourth Republic before they stopped viewing themselves as an empire. Portugal had to lose a 13-year war against Angola, Guinea, and Mozambique (1961–1974) before the Carnation Revolution brought the country back on the path to democracy. Britain, exhausted after World War II, mostly understood they couldn’t win wars against their increasingly nationalist, industrialized, and educated colonies. One could call British decolonization a choice, but it was a choice with few alternatives.
Depending on the estimates used, hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions of people had to die, before the European colonial powers were willing to change into the peaceful nations we know today.
The basis for these wars was the same mindset that must be changed in Russia. From being an empire, where the population derives status from dominating others, to a nation, where the population gains status by working together with the other countries on the world stage, to create a better future for us all.
For the sake of Russia’s future, they must become better than their past. Russia needs to lose the war in Ukraine.
Hope for Russia
Let us end this section with hope.
The best we can do to change the mindset of Russians is to give them, and especially the younger Russians, a hope for a better future.
The West must make it clear that the Russian people are not our enemy. We must convince Russians that it is not due to Western aggression that they fear the West, but because the Russian leadership profits from keeping their population afraid.
We do not want Russians to die, but they are led by a man willing to sacrifice them for his megalomania. A man willing to brainwash them with his evil.
Russians must understand that they have more value than Putin attributes to them. They must understand that Ukraine and the West are not the enemies causing suffering to the Russian people, but that their own political system is to blame. They must understand that it doesn’t have to be this way.
Russians need hope for the possibility of a better future. Hope for change. A hope planted by Putin losing the war he started.
Let us plant the hope. Let us give 5% to Ukraine.
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