When will travel resume in Asia?

nornnorn
5 min readMay 19, 2020

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Domestic travel has resumed in China and South Korea, with regional travel soon to follow

Bangkok | May 19, 2020: A webinar organised by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), Expedia Group and Thai Hotels Association (THA) on May 12 has shed light on when travel might resume in Asia.

The distinguished panel featured Yuthasak Supasorn, TAT governor; Nick Andrews, senior director, Market Management, Travel Partners Group, Expedia Group; and Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, vice person and chairperson of environmental committee, THA.

Clockwise from top left: Yuthasak Supasorn, TAT governor; Moderator; Nick Andrews, senior director, Market Management, Travel Partners Group, Expedia Group; Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, vice person and chairperson of environmental committee, THA

The panelists agreed that COVID-19 had wrought an unprecedented havoc on the travel and tourism industry, with 100 million jobs in the industry lost worldwide. Thailand saw the number of inbound travellers falling from a high of more than 140,000 per day in January this year to just 39 on April 14 after the government imposed a temporary ban on international flights on April 3.

Number of Thailand’s daily inbound travellers between January 1 and April 16, 2020 compared with the same period last year; Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand

The ban, along with restrictions in domestic travel, lockdown and other emergency measures, have led 80% of hotels in the country to suspend their operation since March, according to Marisa. Hotels in southern Thailand, especially Phuket where business is more seasonal, will remain closed until September or October.

A shining glimpse of hope

Domestic travel has, however, resumed in China, the epicentre of COVID-19. In South Korea, where the first major outbreak outside China occurred, 40% of the population did travel domestically during the Golden Week-equivalence long weekend. In Thailand, the number of daily confirmed new infections has fallen to low single digits in recent weeks, making the country one of the world’s most effective at controlling the outbreak.

Backed by the robust recovery in domestic airplane seat capacity in South Korea and China, these recent developments suggest South Koreans and Chinese are likely to be the first to resume traveling internationally.

Number of available domestic airplane seats in China in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020; Source: CAPA — Centre for Aviation & OAG
Number of available domestic airplane seats in South Korea in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020; Source: CAPA — Centre for Aviation & OAG

The positive signs are bolstered by a survey conducted at the end of March by McKinsey & Company, one of the world’s leading management consultancies, that indicates Chinese and South Koreans are relatively confident in their country’s economic recovery after COVID-19, with 47% and 25% of those surveyed in China and South Korea believing that “the economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strongly or stronger than before COVID-19” respectively. Only 6% in Japan are as optimistic.

The result of a survey on the overall confidence level regarding economic conditions after the COVID-19 outbreak conducted at the end of March 2020 by McKinsey & Company

In Hong Kong, 41% of those surveyed by Ipsos, a global market research firm, in early April reckon the ongoing outbreak will not have a major impact on their income. 61% also said they would likely spend on travelling to “make up for the lost time.”

One step at a time

According to Andrews, domestic travel and staycations will recover first, followed by regional and long-haul travels.

Governor Yuthasak agreed, stating that domestic travel to some areas in Thailand would be permitted from June onwards. Indeed, the Bangkok Post reported on May 19 that around 60 hotels in the northern province of Nan had already been allowed to reopen. Those in Nakhon Ratchasima, one of the northeast’s economic hubs, will most likely resume business from June 1.

Inbound travellers from countries and regions where the outbreak is well contained, such as China, Macau, Hong Kong, South Korea and Vietnam, may be welcomed from October this year.

The governor’s statement followed the removal of China, Macau, Hong Kong and South Korea from the list of “dangerous disease zones” by the Thai Ministry of Public Health on May 15.

The holiday island of Bali, where the outbreak is likewise well contained, also now looks to welcome back travellers in October.

A boon for Thailand

Given that China, South Korea and Hong Kong are among the top five feeder markets to Thailand in 2019 according to Expedia, Thailand stands to benefit once the sky reopens.

Expedia Group’s top 10 feeder markets to Thailand; Source: 2019 Expedia Group lodging data for Bangkok, Phuket, Pattaya, Chiang Mai and Koh Samui

Chinese travellers will most likely return: A recent survey by China’s Tourism Research Centre involving 15,000 respondents shows Thailand is the country Chinese travellers most want to visit this year, before Russia and Japan.

The result of the survey echoes that of another survey conducted by C9 Hotelworks, a hospitality consultancy focused on Asia-Pacific, and Delivering Asia Communications, a communications agency, in mid-April that indicates 53% of Chinese travellers would like to travel overseas by the end of this year, with 71% wanting to visit Thailand.

The full webinar is available here until May 26, 2020.

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