Second Mariners Mock Draft

I’m not going to bore you with the details. I’d recommend checking out my previous Mock Draft to see what some of the rules I laid out were. Long story short, I’m not (really) playing with money, and I’m also not repeating players.

It’s been about a month and a half since the first time I’ve done this, and what’s truly changed? Well, the top of the Draft has begun to solidify itself. The top 10 players in this Draft are pretty much consensus. While I’m sure there’s certainly a chance one of those players falls to Seattle, again, I’m not predicting that. Though I’ll say, of those top 10, the three I’d look for the most if they fall to Seattle would be Braden Montgomery, Seaver King, and Hagen Smith (since I don’t think it’s alto realistic anyone else could get to 15). Any of those three get to 15, I’m cashing it in and not thinking twice.

Also, I’m going to continue to mix strategies, and not repeat players (until the very last Mock), just so that you and I can better visualize what alternate strategies may look like.

15th Overall (1st Round):

Brody Brecht (Iowa RHP)

Age on Draft Day: 21 years, 10 months

6' 4", 235 lbs

The Mariners/Iowa connection is a rather notable one, as former Elon and Mariners pitching coach Sean McGrath, who coached George Kirby and Ty Adcock, is now at Iowa.

But beyond that, the first thing you need to mention with Brecht is the stuff. It’s unicorn, unique arm talent, with a fastball that’s up to 100 MPH, sitting 94–98 in games, and you pair that with a dynamite 70 grade slider in the mid to high 80s with ridiculous tunnel and nasty late break, a 55 splitter that he really kills spin on, a 60 grade curve up to the mid 80s that he doesn’t even need to throw, and a usable cutter, and you get the picture. Pair that alongside an elite athlete with a durable frame and him being very green on the mound, and you’ve really got something.

There’s obviously flaws here, though, the most obvious one being his command and control, which has plagued him for all three years now, but there’s adjustments in the delivery that may help that, alongside the athlete and freshness of the player himself that suggests that, in the right system, those command concerns can be rectified. Seattle would be the right system to handle stuff like that, given their track record with guys like Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and even getting guys like Matt Brash to the Majors as a starter. Even if the command concerns remain, Brecht has a floor of a high-leverage reliever that’s in the game for a long time. The ceiling is ridiculous, and the floor is surprisingly high despite the relief risk.

Brecht’s skillset is one that screams #1 starter, true ace potential if it all clicks, and Seattle’s in a position where they can take a chance like this. Brecht would rank 6th in the Mariners system if he were inserted right now.

56th Overall (2nd Round):

Dylan Dreiling (C OF, Tennessee)

Age on Draft Day: 21 years, 3 months (Sophomore Eligible)

5' 11", 200 lbs

Dreiling represents a player I’d be thrilled to get into the system. The idea here is pretty similar to the Cole Mathis pick last Mock Draft. Dreiling is a sophomore-eligible hitter who’s made incredible strides over the last calendar year to get bigger, stronger, while not sacrificing his naturally strong contact ability. At this point in the year, I’d project Dreiling as an above-average hitter with an above-average approach and potential plus power to all fields. He’s able to dig in against lefties, adjust to breaking stuff, has the bat speed to catch up to anything he needs to, and impacts pitches in all quadrants of the strike zone.

Similar to Mathis, the defensive spectrum is rather limited. While Dreiling isn’t one who’s limited to 1B like Mathis probably will be, Dreiling is a fringe-average corner outfield glove who’s mostly played DH for the Volunteers this year. But what he does is give a very advanced offensive floor, while also providing some impact ceiling. He seems like that typical role 50 corner outfielder who provides above-average offense but little to no defensive value, like an Anthony Santander or Mitch Haniger type, but I think the ceiling might be a truly plus bat, maybe more along the lines of Jesse Winker in his best years if it clicks.

This fulfills a need for high-probability offensive players in Seattle’s system, specifically among outfielders. Dreiling would rank 9th in the Mariners system if he were inserted right now.

93rd Overall (3rd Round):

Dasan Hill (HS LHP)

Grapevine HS (TX), Dallas Baptist Commit

Age on Draft Day: 18 years, 6 months

6' 4", 180 lbs

Dasan Hill is a recent riser in the spring, a lanky, projectable lefty who’s already up to 97 MPH with a short slider and slower curveball, but the velocity and consistency has had a noted up arrow the last month or so.

Hill’s a fantastic mover on the mound, incredibly balanced and athletic. He’s able to vary his delivery and timing brilliantly, keeping hitters off-balance. He typically has a small hitch in his delivery, like some Japanese pitchers, but the length of that will vary, and he’ll sometimes short-step for a quick pitch and eliminate the hitch altogether. Alongside mid 90s from the left side and a varied delivery, Hill’s a rather uncomfortable at-bat.

There’s some head whack at release, but the profile’s very strong when you consider the starter traits, the athlete, the stuff, the projectability, and natural craftiness. Think of Dasan Hill as a similar bet as the bet that the Giants took on when they drafted Kyle Harrison, and or the one the Blue Jays took on when they drafted Ricky Tiedemann, both big-stuff lefties who were taken in similar ranges, both of whom are now consensus top 50 prospects. He’s a very strong box of tools to bet on and bring into the system. Would rank 11th if he was in the Mariners system now.

126th Overall (4th Round):

Aiden May (RHP, Oregon State)

Age on Draft Day: 21 years, 3 months

6' 2", 196 lbs

Aiden May is another jackbox of tools on the mound that an organization with a strong pitch player development system would drool over.

An east-west pitcher up to 99 with a sinker, May is a guy who spins the ball to Narnia, and really leans on his low to mid 80s sweeper with 20" of break that’ll get to 3000 RPMs, and easy 60 grade pitch, maybe creeping up on 70 grade, but the rest of the arsenal is nothing to sniff at, and all project as professional pitches with big-league utility. He throws a hard, shorter slider in the upper 80s that will get up to 3000 RPMs, too. He flashes the ability to potentially work north-south with a four-seamer and splitter-like offspeed that he kills spin on, too. He’s mostly leaning on that sinker/sweeper mix in college, but those other pitches flashing gives him that much more appeal for what the player can look like in pro ball.

May has a Tommy John in his past, and he’s missed time this year with elbow and shoulder soreness. He’s back now, but a key aspect of his stock will be whether he stays healthy the rest of the year, and whether the medicals are clean. The command isn’t fantastic, but May is a plus athlete on the mound with a low release height, the kind of player that Seattle’s done well with, and targeted in recent Drafts. Is very similar to Teddy McGraw. Would rank 15th in the Mariners system.

154th Overall (5th Round):

Luke Sinnard (RHP, Indiana)

Age on Draft Day: 21 years, 9 months

6’ 8”, 230 lbs

Sinnard was a potential top 2 round talent for this Draft before getting Tommy John surgery back in August of 2023, but he’s a special case, as, it’ll be a good chance that he’ll be ready to rock and roll by Opening Day 2025 comes around.

Sinnard is a unicorn, but in a way that’s a bit unusual relative to the modern game of pitching. The towering righty stands at 6' 8" and touches the damn sky with an over-the-top slot. Unlike some of the recent low-slot or low-release guys Seattle’s targeted the last couple of years, Sinnard releases the ball from over 7 feet off the ground.

As a result of this, Sinnard is able to truly utilize his natural spinning ability to really backspin his fastball with loads of ride through the zone in the 91–95 range (topped out at 96 pre-TJ). Some have questions about how a pitch like that performs from that release height, but we’ve seen players whose extremely high release benefits them, so it’s hardly impossible.

Alongside the fastball, Sinnard has a low 80s, 12–6 curve with an almost nauseating amound of vertical separation off the fastball, a pitch that really performs from his slot, a potential plus pitch. He also flashes a upper 80s cutter that he was able to mix in pretty well, and a splitter-like offspeed that has a shot of becoming an average offering. Sinnard boasted plus strike-throwing ability alongside above-average command, and the starter traits were good enough to potentially take in the first round, but the Tommy John complicates things. I think if Seattle gets an opportunity at him here, they should take it and cash it in without thinking twice. I think the floor pre-TJ is one to buy in on, as well as the potential for a mid-rotation guy if Seattle can get him to a healthy spot and develop the stuff. Would rank 16th in the Mariners system right now.

All and all, when you compare the last time I did this versus this time, it might not seem too different from an outside perspective. Last time, I took a college arm in round 1, college bat in round 2, high school bat in round 3, and two more college arms in rounds 4 and 5, and that general blueprint might’ve seemed to stick around this time around.

But where it differs is the players I took. Last mock, I sacrificed some ceiling trying to aim more towards starter traits with the arms I took. This time around, pretty much all my picks were riskier, shooting more for upside than trying to hinge on floor. Brecht and May both have noted relief risk, which comes with mid rotation or better ceilings (and for Brecht, true ace ceiling). Both May and Sinnard have histories of arm injury, and Dasan Hill has natural risk being a high school arm, whose body isn’t designed to throwing 97 at 17 or 18 years old. That being said, they all offer a value I think Seattle could capitalize on given what they like, and their developmental skillsets. The Woo and McGraw pickups show that injury risk does not scare this team later in the draft.

All in all, the pessimistic side of me likes the prior Draft I had, just because it held so much more floor, so much more safety. It addressed the team’s needs far better, and fit a clearer game plan. On the other hand, the more optimistic side of me really likes the shots I did take, even if they are risks at the end of the day. And maybe while the first mock fit more of what I wanted for the team, I think I got just straight-up better players in this mock, and I think that’s reflected by how much higher I would’ve ranked them in the Mariners’ system right now (though the difference in where they’re ranked isn’t as drastic as it seems, given recent updates in the farm and my recent slight readjusting of it).

That being said, I find this exercise really fun, and I hope to get another one out by the time May rolls around. I think I’ll do four or five mock drafts total by the time the Draft officially begins.

https://medium.com/@oliver.mitsuo/mariners-top-5-round-mock-draft-2a8b5c63bae6