We already covered in a previous post, how important it is to deal with uncertainty in financial Deep Learning forecasts. In this post, we’ll attempt a first introduction on how we deal with explainability.

Neural networks have been applied to various tasks including stock price prediction. Although highly successfully, these models are frequently treated as black boxes. In most cases we know that the performance on the test data is satisfying, but we do not know why the model came up with a specific output.

There are cases where an “explanation” of the model’s conclusion is desirable, if not necessary. Examples where explainability is a practical necessity include the diagnosis of medical conditions and the control of self driving cars. In the first situation an explanation of the model’s output can help the expert make the final decision and decide whether to trust the prediction or not. In the latter, such an “explanation” can help identify faulty decision making processes that can have disastrous outcomes. …


Hello again.

In this post, we want to focus on News momentum and narratives: How narratives form in preparation for a big move. We will see with examples how those narratives are sustained until they fade out or stabilize to a new equilibrium. This idea has been described in Narrative Economics book by Robert Shiller, where he tries to set a foundation on narrative economics and show how stories go viral and can drive major economic events.

In our case though, we’ll attempt to study how news momentum and narratives in daily news can drive stock prices up or down in a short period of time. …


In this post, we’ll share some of our thoughts on how to study market volatility and news. We’ll give you some pointers on how we at Predic.to deal with volatility and uncertainty in order to understand risk involved at any given time. This is a continuation of our series of posts about Investing + Deep Learning.

Volatility is a very important factor of the markets, and it’s wise to always be aware of it. Volatility of specific sectors and specific stocks can give you clues on what to expect next. News and events happening around the world play the most important role of course. Investors react fast to important events. …

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