China’s Social Credit System: A Step Towards Dystopia? Part Six: Looking Ahead
Well…you’ve made it this far. Congrats?
So far we’ve covered the historical context behind the SCS, two landmark pieces of its development (the 2014 Social Credit Plan and the Joint Punishment System), and the challenges it will face in the immediate future.The original aim of the SCS is certainly still in place — to “foster trust among individuals and businesses”. Let’s wrap up by looking ahead more abstractly at how this will be achieved.
Creemer’s paper puts forth a series of longer-term questions that must be addressed before the SCS is fully actualized:
- Where will data come from? The government, or private sources?
All of the data currently being used by the central SCS, with the exception of certain financial credit data (which itself is used quite narrowly), is sourced by the government.
- How will the rating system be structured?
Currently, it’s clearly binary: you’re either on or off the blacklist. In the future, will participants be graded more similarly to the projects in Suining and Rongcheng (i.e. from AAA to D)? A more granular scoring system is not explicitly mentioned in the 2014 Social Credit Plan, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the future.
- Will scores be assessed by humans, computer algorithms, or some mix of both?
Whether this is by a transparent algorithm or a published ruleset, the most important aspect of the rating system is that individuals need to know how they are being evaluated so that they can (in theory) adjust their behavior to line up with incentives.
- Once a sufficient dataset is assembled, will the SCS have an element of prediction of future actions based on past behavior?
Could it be used to flag at-risk or potentially dangerous actors? What are the moral and ethical implications of taking preventive action on this data?
- What will be the correct balance between individual and group assessment?
Will broad incentives and punishments be applied for association with certain groups of interest?
The answers to these questions will ultimately shape the impact and legacy of the SCS.
This has been a broad treatment of a large subject. If you’re reading this conclusion, I hope you’ve found it at least informative. If you’re crazy and looking for further reading, I would suggest perusing Creemer’s paper and its citations, as well as signing up for Jeff Ding’s excellent ChinAI newsletter, which provides excellent treatments of the latest news from China’s AI rocketship.
We are currently witnessing one of the most ambitious projects in history. I will be a curious, apprehensive, and excited observer as its story continues to be written.
Part One: Introduction
Part Two: Historical Context
Part Three: 2014 Social Credit Plan
Part Four: Joint Punishment System
Part Five: Barriers
Part Six: Looking Ahead
