Forecasting Military strategies using game theory Russia VS. Ukraine [Part 1]
Oct 2021 to March 2022 strategic analysis.
I’ve used to assume conspiracies are rare to non existent in the 21st century, not mentioning ‘world domination’ theories and over phobic opinions regarding ‘things which are hidden from the public by a group of world leaders’. But a deep analysis in combination with basic logic and oversight of all available variants, actions and possible out comes. It has come to my mind that in some cases, yes! counter intuitive at first glance, but highly reasonable when examining therraly all the facts.
TLDR; Executive summery
Ukraine’s future has already been decided by the worlds leading nations already on 2021 and they have agreed that Ukraine will be sacrificed to Russia while they will not get involved militarily, fully allowing Ukraine to be invaded, conquered and controlled by Russia with the assurance of exactly which sanctions will be applied as a result of the invasion of Russia to Ukraine.
Imagine the following conversation between Putin and the President of the United States / Defense council of the EU (let’s refer to them as ‘The west’) somewhere in mid 2021:
Putin: I’m going to conquer Ukraine next winter, I need to assure a complete territorial continues of non NATO members to act like a disarmed, Moscow controlled buffer zone in the rare case one day in the future Europe will decide to invade Russia.
The west: (Shocked silence).
Putin: Please respect the international law and do not interfere with my plans.
The west: This is outrageous, are you saying that you’re going to start a war and conquer a democratic country in Europe?
Putin: Looking to the President of the US in the eyes and asks him “if you would decide to conquer Mexico, would it even be logical we send an army to your back yard to assist Mexico fight a 100% lost battle due to army sizes and military capabilities?”
President of the United States: hmm, I get your point. But we are the democratic leaders of the world, we image ourselves as the ones always helping the underdog, that’s what all democracy is about….
Putin: So sanction me personally or something, cut some of the banks from swift, raise votes in the UN that we will veto, send home some retired diplomats, you can even blame them for being “Russian spy’s”, you folks love that kind of headlines in the west (grinning to himself).
The West: we will send weapons to slow you down, it will cost you a lot of money Mr. Putin, we warn you.
Putin: Feel free to test your latest weapons in Ukraine, I’m surly going to, I find it as a great opportunity to test our newest inventions, why not you look at the full half of the glass and lets use the weapon shipments as a cover to wet running our latest additions to our arsenals?
The West: (Shocked Silence).
Putin: that would be all, thank you for understanding, I promise I will stop at Ukraine, you have my word on it.
The west: ok, no problem Mr. Putin, Let us know when you are done. We will do the same as we did at the end of the last war in Europe, We will calculate damages and send you the bill.
End of TLDR;
End of [Part 1]
(facts and early red flags which are casually ignored)
