This is not a comparison, merely an overview of their time as managers in the Premier League. Ronald Koeman, the older of the two, has had more success both as a player and a manager. However, that should not over-shadow the remarkable work Mauricio Pochettino has done ever since taking up the managerial role at Southampton Football Club.
Part 1: Mauricio Pochettino
2012–2013
When Pochettino was appointed Southampton manager, there were many who were critical of the appointment. One such person was a former Southampton manager and League Mangers’ Association vice-president Lawrie McMenemy.
After getting the club promoted to the Premier League, Adkins’ Southampton were three points above the drop-zone after 22 games played and already knocked out of both domestic cups.
Table 1 shows the performance changes for Southampton after changing their manager. altGF and altGA are alternative values for goals scored calculated using shots and shots on target (a basic xG model that doesn’t consider location and pass types etc). As we can see, although the team scored fewer goals per game under Pochettino, the whole unit was much more compact resulting in much fewer goals conceded per game.
If we look at the alternative goal numbers we can see a slight improvement in team performance both offensively and defensively. Overall, this resulted in more points per game for Southampton ensuring they survived relegation.
Graph 1 & 2: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2012/13
As we have already concluded, Mauricio Pochettino was able to improve on the performances of the Southampton squad after arriving mid-season. The above graphs are further proof of this. Although it would seem the team under-performed during Pochettino’s 16 matches, considering Adkins was only two points off his anticipated total, it is clear Pochettino was able to vastly improve the performances of the squad. Though the results didn’t match the performances, the improvement leaves them in good stead for the next season.
Table 2 is striking, it shows how Southampton had the lowest wages during the season and the 5th lowest revenues. The other two teams with the lowest wages and revenues were Wigan and Reading, both of whom got relegated. This makes the work of both Adkins and Pochettino even more remarkable.
2013–2014
The 2013–2014 season marked Pochettino’s first full season in the Premier League, it also happened to be the first season the Premier League had without Sir Alex Ferguson as Manchester United manager.
Graph 3: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2013/14
As we can see from graph 3, for a second year running Pochettino under-performed his anticipated points. This does not have to be viewed negatively. Had Southampton achieved the anticipated 75 points, it would have pushed them into 5th position. This would have been a remarkable improvement from 14th the previous year. They ended up in 8th place, which is still a respectable position.
The RFS and VSE statistics are calculated using the VTA statistic from above. This includes both Wage Bill and Net Book Value of the club from their Financial Accounts. If RFS is greater than 100 it means the clubs financial strength is stronger than the average Premier League club for the season. The VSE statistic improves as the number reaches closer to 0, i.e. the team was more efficient with its squad use the lower the value gets.
As we can see from Table 3, the 2013/14 season was a massive improvement on the previous season, both performance wise and financial efficiency wise. Although Southampton were slightly stronger financially, they were still well below the average for the league. However, due to their significant increase in points tally, their VSE value dramatically decreased, implying a much more efficient use of their squad finances.
As we can see from Table 4, Southampton’s improvement in points and therefore position, can be attributed to their improvement on the pitch offensively and defensively. Scoring more goals and conceding fewer goals saw Southampton’s goal difference improve by 19 goals.
Looking at their alternate goals, we can see that although the number for goals scored reduced, there was a significant reduction in goals against. This improvement defensively was a key reason for Southampton shooting up the table.
Post-season, Tottenham come for Pochettino and Southampton replace him with Koeman.
2014–2015
Looking at their points tallies, Tottenham weren’t necessarily in any problems before Pochettino signed. However, they did just terminate Tim Sherwood’s contract as manager and therefore needed to appoint someone.
As we can see from Tables 5 and 6, Tottenham were in definite need of a change in manager and approach to coaching. As mentioned earlier, Tottenham managed 69, 72 and 69 points in the three seasons before Pochettino’s arrival. However, both their squad performances and financial efficiency were headed in a downward trend. Who better to appoint than the manager that proved he could improve a club’s performance and financial efficiency within 18 months.
However, it was not an easy task for Pochettino. He had moved from the mid-league to the big-league. Tottenham’s finances, although not near the elite, are still above average in the Premier League and 6th highest revenue earner out of all Premier League clubs. This is one of the hardest challenges for any manager, especially one so young and with little experience.
Graph 4: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2014/15
Graph 4 is not what we are usually accustomed to seeing from Pochettino, however it probably shows the adjustment from Southampton to Tottenham wasn’t as smooth and quick as when he first arrived at Southampton. Here, for the first time we see Pochettino outperform his anticipated points total, granted it is only by one point.
Looking at Tables 7 and 8, in Pochettino’s first season as Tottenham manager, although he improved their final position this came with lower points total. Additionally, we can see that the team Pochettino was managing was weaker financially compared to the previous season. However, he was still able to improve their squad finance efficiency. Looking at the games column, we can see that overall Pochettino was able to get Tottenham further in the domestic cup tournaments than during previous seasons.
The one aspect Pochettino couldn’t improve was the team defence. As we can see, not only did Tottenham concede more goals during Pochettino’s first season, the squad’s alternate Goals Against tally also increased. The attack remained consistent with the previous year, therefore it is clear where Tottenham needed to improve over the summer going into the 2015/16 season.
2015–2016
After one full season with Tottenham and 92 matches managed in the Premier League, it is fair to say the club were hoping for an improvement on their last 2 seasons with a more experienced Pochettino at the helm.
Graph 5: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2015/16
Graph 5 is what we are accustomed to seeing for a Pochettino team in the Premier League. However, this is the highest points tally for both anticipated and actual points for any Pochettino team. Already we see a big improvement on the team performances in 2013/14 and 2014/15.
If we go slightly deeper into the numbers we can see the massive improvement Pochettino made in 2015/16. Table 9 shows how although Tottenham were in a weaker financial strength than in the past three years, Pochettino used the squad more efficiently than Tottenham had in the past. He was not able to beat the points tally Vilas-Boas reached in 2012/13, however he was able to finish 3rd, higher than any Tottenham season since 1989/90.
Looking at Table 10, we can see the remarkable improvement in their defence from the previous seasons. The attack also improved which resulted in a goal difference improvement of 29. The alternate goal numbers also show a great improvement in both attack and defence compared to the previous two seasons. However, the 2012/13 season still has the highest value for alternate goals scored, this is likely due to Gareth Bale’s stand-out season before his big money move to Real Madrid.
It took Pochettino one full season at Tottenham to get them to perform at a high level. All while ensuring Tottenham remained within their budgets. That is management at its highest level, what is commonly known as elite. The only thing missing are titles. Can 2016/17 be the year?
2016–2017
Since the 2016/17 season finished in May, the club financial accounts will not be available for another 8–10 months. Therefore, to determine whether there are changes in financial efficiency, transfer figures will be used.
Table 11 shows the Net Book Value, Transfer Spend and Net Transfer Spend for Tottenham from 2011/12 onwards. As is evident, Tottenham’s Net Book Value had its biggest increase during the 2013/14 season after the club sold Gareth Bale and went on a £100m spending spree. However, what is important to note is their Net Transfer Spend. Their Net Transfer Spend being negative shows how Tottenham manage their accounts.
Every season player contracts get amortised and their value decreases on the clubs’ books. The transfer spend over the summer and winter windows are then added to the Net Book Value while the players who are sold are booked for profit made on their Net Book Value. When looking at the Net Book Value and Net Transfer Spend figures for Tottenham, we can see (outside of 2013/14 — Gareth Bale) how their book value decreases when their net spend is negative and increases when it is positive. 2013/14 Gareth Bale is an exception since one player commanded such a high fee and was replaced by multiple players on the books, therefore inflating the Net Book Value.
Using the logic from above, Tottenham’s Net Transfer Spend in 2016/17 was their highest since 2008/09 and it can be expected that their Net Book Value and therefore relative financial strength both increased. It is hard to determine their VSE since the financial accounts are not available, however looking at the points increase of 16 from the previous season, it is unlikely that the VSE will increase a lot compared to the previous season.
Graph 5: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2016/17
If we look at all of Pochettino’s Anticipated Points vs Actual Points graphs (outside 2014/15) we will see both lines eventually getting closer and closer together. If we thought last season was brilliant from Tottenham, this season blows last season out of the park. An improvement on both anticipated and actual points shows Pochettino’s impressive coaching ability.
About Pochettino’s coaching ability, Table 12 paints a great picture of what he has been able to do since being appointed Tottenham manager. Tottenham’s best alternate goal tally since 2000/01 was the season Gareth Bale won Player of the Season. Pochettino was able to surpass that, only marginally, but still surpass. Not only did he do that, he also improved on their actual goal tally, improved their defence and anticipated goals conceded. It was an all-round stellar job.
There was one thing missing though — a title. Tottenham were no match for Chelsea who, by Christmas, were already champions elect. Their performance in the Champions League and Europa League left a lot to be desired. An FA Cup semi-final loss to Chelsea added another dent to an otherwise stellar season. Having spent three years at Tottenham, it is about time he adds a trophy to his collection. Improvements in Europe will also be welcomed by the Tottenham fans, however they still have a long way to go before they can be mentioned in the same breath as some of the elite clubs.
Bonus Graph: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points — Pochettino PL Career
Data Sources:
Southampton and Tottenham Financial Accounts — via Companies House
