Part 2: Ronald Koeman
In this study, I will be looking at current Everton manager Ronald Koeman. Like Pochettino, Koeman also began his Premier League journey at Southampton. However, he began in early June, which gave him an opportunity to make his own signings and have a full pre-season. Southampton had just finished 8th in their second season following promotion back to the Premier League. Pochettino, who steadied the ship, headed to Tottenham to help change their fortunes.
2014–2015
In the 2013/14 season, Southampton’s anticipated points were 75, however they managed only 56 points. Koeman couldn’t reach the highs of 75, however he did improve the points tally and position Southampton found themselves at the end of the season.
Graph 1: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2014/15
Graph 1 shows the anticipated and actual points totals for Southampton in 2014/15. For Pochettino, the anticipated and actual points lines were much further apart in his first season. Koeman could closer match performance with expectations.
Since this was only Southampton’s third season in the Premier League following promotion, we can only look back two seasons to see how Koeman has performed with the squad. Table 1 shows how Southampton were in a stronger position financially than they have been in the past two seasons.
Club ELO ratings are based on past results and is a decent indicator for club performance. Southampton’s ELO rating decreased by 2 over the course of the 2014/15 season. Although the change is minimal, it does indicate that Koeman wasn’t able to sufficiently improve their performances.
Additionally, Southampton were less efficient with the squad finances than the previous season. Since it was Koeman’s first season, these indicators show Koeman’s ability to keep a squad performing at the same level, while improving their final position.
Table 2 is a better indicator of how Koeman did improve on the performance of the team from the previous year. The team conceded 13 fewer goals, this is also reflected by the number of alternate goals against reducing. This improved Southampton’s goal difference significantly and therefore put them in a stronger position to finish higher up the table.
2015–2016
The immediate aim of the 2015/16 season for Southampton would be to maintain their position and consistency in performances. Koeman had already shown his ability to do that during his first season and Southampton would be confident in his ability to repeat that feat.
Graph 2: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2015/16
The 2015/16 season brought back a number that should be familiar to Southampton fans now, 75. Not only did Koeman match the number of anticipated points Pochettino got in 2013/14, he was able to score 7 more points than Pochettino did. This was reflected in their final position of 6.
Finally settled in the Premier League, Koeman could kick on with his job and help Southampton reach new highs. Southampton had a similar financial strength to the previous season, however this season Koeman could make better use of the squad finances. The Club ELO rating improved significantly from the previous season which shows the improvements Koeman made to their performances.
Looking at table 4, we can see that Koeman sacrificed his defence a little from the previous season to improve the attack. Although this did impact their goal difference, it did more to improve their final position. This improvement in position earned Southampton a place in the 2016/17 Europa League group stages. Southampton did take part in the qualifying rounds of the 2015/16 Europa League, however they were unable to get into the group stages. This is a welcomed bonus for Southampton fans.
2016–2017
Although Koeman helped Southampton reach the group stages of the Europa League, he wasn’t staying to see it through. Everton came calling and Koeman couldn’t turn it down.
Although there’s very little difference in the finances of both clubs, Everton were recently acquired by wealthy backers and going through a tough period under Roberto Martinez. After finishing 5th in 2013/14, Everton were only able to finish 10th and 11th the following two seasons. Although they did reach the semi-finals in both domestic cups in 2015/16, finishing 11th was not good enough for the owners and they brought in Koeman to help improve their fortunes.
Graph 3: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points 2016/17
In his first season as Everton manager Koeman significantly improved their points tally from the previous two seasons. As we are accustomed to seeing with Koeman, the team’s anticipated points were higher than their actual points, however the gap between the two lines is not large. This suggests that Koeman is consistently able to get his team to perform close to what is expected of them.
Since financial accounts of the 2016/17 are not available, to judge the financial efficiency of Everton I have chosen to look at other financial figures to try and predict how efficient Koeman was with Everton’s squad finances.
Looking at their Net Book Value, we can see the value increased every season, while increasing at a much larger rate when the Net Transfer Spend was high. Therefore, looking at the 2016/17 transfer figures, it is likely Everton’s Net Book Value increased, however only marginally.
Everton’s relative financial strength over the past three seasons has remained the same, however the efficient use of squad finances has been decreasing over the last two seasons. Koeman’s performance during the 2016/17 seasons is likely to change that, however it is unlikely that their VSE value will be as low as during the 2013/14 season when Martinez was able to get 72 points.
Looking at Table 7, we can see how much Koeman was able to significantly improve the performance of the squad. Although the attack only marginally improved in both goals scored and alternate goals scored, the defence saw a significant improvement. This lead to a 14-goal swing in goal difference. Additionally, Everton’s alternate goal difference saw dramatic improvements.
Although Koeman couldn’t reach the same highs as Martinez in 2013/14, he did improve in their goals tally. All in all, it was a respectable season for Koeman and I am sure Everton will be expecting much more in 2017/18. Maybe a cup run or a great European run could be in store for the fans.
Graph 4: Anticipated Points vs Actual Points - Koeman Premier League
