NFL Draft: How Strong is Joe Burrow’s Arm? How Quick is Tua Tagovailoa’s Release? I Frame-Counted More Than 400 Throws to Find Out.
A video analysis of LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Utah State’s Jordan Love, and Oregon’s Justin Herbert.
Projecting success for a 22-year-old is hard. Law schools try to judge a student’s viability with a test like the LSAT. Med schools do the same by having prospective doctors take the MCAT. The NFL, on the other hand, tries to predict success by stripping draft prospects down to their underwear and asking them to sprint in a straight line for 40 yards. And by measuring the width of their hands. And, apparently, by smelling them.
But, believe it or not, NFL combine events like the 40-yard dash are not good predictors of success (the jury is still out on the smell test, however). And, unfortunately, for quarterbacks at least, traditional college stats have very small correlations with NFL success. That’s why the majority of a prospect’s evaluation has to be based on their game tape, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The problem with evaluating a prospect’s tape, however, is that it’s subjective. What Todd McShay sees on tape is different than what Mel Kiper sees (and this obviously holds true for scouts and GMs around the NFL, too).
One way to at least partially solve this problem is what’s called frame counting. See, every frame of a video is a piece of data. And that data can help quantify things like the quickness of a QB’s throwing motion or the strength of their arm. It can even help quantify how fast they make decisions.
And that’s exactly what I’ve done here. As it says in the title, I’ve counted the frames and “done the math” on more than 400 throws from the players who I deem to be the top-four quarterback prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft: LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Utah State’s Jordan Love, and Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Now, if you just want to know how much faster Tua’s release is than Joe Burrow’s, or which QB has the strongest arm, skip ahead to the “RESULTS” section. And if you really don’t feel like reading, there’s a TL;DR at the bottom of the page. But if you’re even slightly curious how these results were calculated, I’m going to briefly explain how all of this works before diving into the data.
THE PROCESS
The premise of frame-counting is relatively simple: if we know a video’s frame rate, we can convert a number of frames into an amount of time. For example, the video of Jared Goff here was encoded at 30 frames per second (FPS).
So, we know that 1 frame is 1/30 of a second (0.033 sec), 2 frames is 1/15 of a second (0.067 sec), and 3 frames is 1/10th of a second (0.10 sec). If we’re going to analyze Goff’s release time (how long it takes him to complete his throwing motion), we can step through each frame to see that he initiates the pass at 00:41:15. And by 00:41:28, the ball is coming out of his hand. That means, on this play, Goff’s throwing motion took about 13 frames, which, at 30 FPS, is equivalent to 0.433 seconds. Obviously, throwing motions can vary from play to play, which is why, for this analysis, average release times were calculated for each QB from a sample of at least 75 throws. And while the accuracy of these measurements gets better as the frame rate increases, even a 24 FPS video can provide a decent measurement of time.
Now, for arm strength, I’m looking at the maximum initial launch velocity on a throw — or the ball’s speed as it leaves the quarterback’s hand (velocity and speed are technically different things, but I’ll use them interchangeably here). This is calculated by reverse engineering some projectile motion equations, which means I need to know the ball’s flight time and the actual distance it traveled (among other variables, like mass and drag coefficient). Frame counting can give us the ball’s flight time and, for distance, we can use a tool like Google Earth. Again, using the Goff example, alternate angles can help me identify the starting and stopping points of the ball’s flight. And then I can measure those points on Google Earth to get a true distance of the throw.
And in addition to quantifying time, analyzing footage frame by frame can provide for a better understanding of a prospect’s biomechanics, vision, and decision making. So, what’s it tell us about Burrow, Tua, Herbert, and Love?
THE RESULTS
The maximum launch velocity, release time, and trigger time (I’ll explain this one) for each quarterback is below, sorted by launch velocity. For context, I’ve also included data from some QB prospects I’d previously analyzed. Again, at least 75 throws from each of the 2020 prospects were tracked. That includes the good (highlights), the bad (lowlights), and the ugly (Jordan Love’s interception reel). Data from screen passes, however, was thrown out.
I’ll dive deeper into the numbers, but here’s a brief summary of what each metric measures in case you skipped the last section. Maximum launch velocity quantifies a QB’s arm strength by calculating the ball’s speed as it comes out of their hand. Release time measures how long it takes a QB to finish their throwing motion (not the time they have to throw). And trigger time looks at how long it takes a QB to start their throwing motion after they’ve locked on a target — essentially, how long it takes them to pull the trigger on a pass.
Arm Strength
As you can see, of the 2020 prospects analyzed, Love was able to generate the highest maximum launch velocity on his throws. He was followed by Herbert, Burrow, and then Tua. There’s a lot to unpack here, but, first, I wanted to give these numbers some context because I know seeing “56 MPH” next to Joe Burrow’s name doesn’t mean a whole lot on its own.
Throw velocity isn’t a common stat in football, but even casual sports fans know that a pitcher who can throw a baseball at 100 miles per hour is, like, pretty freakin’ impressive. So, to make this QB metric a bit more relatable, I’ve converted these football throw velocities into baseball pitch speeds. This is based on kinetic energy and it should give you a better idea of how hard each QB can actually sling it.
First things first — yes, Josh Allen really does have Aroldis Chapman-like velocity. But more importantly, this shows that a two or three mile per hour difference in QB launch velocity is actually a big deal. And that can make the differences between the 2020 prospects a little more more obvious.
With heat approaching the equivalent of a 98 MPH fastball, Jordan Love’s arm is clearly in a class by itself. This is due to a combination of efficient kinetic linking and his 32.625-inch-long arm, which is roughly two inches longer than the arms of Burrow (30.875 in) or Tua (30.5 in). Herbert’s arm is actually the longest of the four, however, at 32.875 inches.
All else being equal from a physics perspective, every additional inch of arm length adds about an extra 2 MPH of linear velocity to a throw. And it’s interesting to note that some NFL QBs with cannons, like Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers, all have arms longer than 32 inches.
Now, Love’s arm strength can help facilitate the kind of off-balance, broken-play, Hail Mary throws we’ve seen from Mahomes and Rodgers in the NFL, which is why his name is being mentioned so often with the Chiefs’ All-Pro QB. But while Love does have the arm to make some absolutely ridiculous throws, his fastball isn’t quite as fast as Mahomes’, which could get him into trouble at the next level.
Physically, Herbert is the biggest quarterback of these prospects and, like Love, that size does translate to arm strength. He’s not going to beat Josh Allen in a deep ball contest, but he’ll enter the league with a stronger arm than the QB1s of many NFL teams. Burrow, on the other hand, has good-but-not-great zip on his fastball. His arm isn’t mind-blowing, but it’s also not a concern. Burrow’s greatest asset, as we’ll see in the trigger time section, is his mental processing.
And that brings us to Tua. Of all the recent quarterback prospects I’ve analyzed, Tua’s arm is the weakest. Now, that doesn’t mean he can’t throw it deep — watch any Bama game he played in and you’ll see he throws a beautiful deep ball. His arm is more of a problem on plays like out routes and deeper curls.
Tua’s interception here isn’t all about arm strength — the ball was behind the receiver and the DB obviously read the route — but it does show where velocity matters most. For example, a ball that leaves a QB’s hand at 56 MPH will travel 25 yards (a 5-yard out to the sideline) in roughly 0.95 seconds. A ball that leaves Tua’s hand at 53.5 MPH would arrive about 0.05 seconds later. I know that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but, in that extra time, a defensive back could travel an additional foot in coverage. Tua’s arm effectively shrinks the size of passing window, which will only be smaller against NFL defenses.
(If you’re curious how these numbers compare to the radar gun numbers from the NFL Combine, I wrote about why this method is a more accurate and consistent way to calculate launch velocity here, just above the “release time” section.)
Release Time
Again, this refers to the amount of time it takes a quarterback to complete their throwing motion. I start my “timer” on the frame where the quarterback begins to drop the ball on their windup and I end it when the ball first leaves their hand. And while a quick release doesn’t completely make up for a weak arm, it can mitigate some of the problems lower-tier arm strength can create. And that’s why Tua is still one of the most dangerous passers in this draft. He doesn’t just have a quick throwing motion — he has the quickest throwing motion I’ve ever analyzed. To show just how fast his release is, I’ve included a few other QBs with historically quick throwing motions here.
Yes, on average, Tua’s release is quicker than Aaron Rodgers’s. And it’s even faster than the legendary throwing motion of Dan Marino. It’s that quick. The clips in the gif below are both slowed down to 25% speed and lined up so that Tua and Marino start their throwing motion on the same frame.
It’s tough to tell because of the quality, but Tua gets the ball out about a frame (when the video is at full speed) before Marino. Frankly, it’s baffling that the NFL Combine doesn’t film each quarterback with a locked-off camera shooting at 1,000 FPS to get a highly accurate measure of these types of things…But anyway, what does this mean for Tua? Well, as you can imagine, this gives defenders, both on the line and in the secondary, less time to react to one of his throws. It’s something Deshaun Watson has used, in addition to his mobility, to really succeed in the NFL. Watson doesn’t have the strongest arm either, but he’s able to cut down the total time from targeting a receiver to the catch because of his quick release.
And to see what Tua’s quick release looks like next to the other 2020 prospects in this analysis, just like the Marino gif, I’ve lined up clips from each QB so they begin their throwing motion on the exact same frame. These clips are all slowed down to 33% speed. You can see, while the other quarterbacks are still in the acceleration phase of their throwing motions, the ball is already out of Tua’s hand. And I do want to point out that the other quarterbacks’ releases are not problematic — they’re relatively average — but Tua’s throwing motion is just otherworldly.
Trigger Time
Now, I only just started looking at the idea of “trigger time” last year, but I think it might be the most important of the three metrics covered in this analysis. Again, this is measuring the amount of time it takes a QB to start their throwing motion after they’ve locked on a target. This provides insight into how a quarterback sees the field and how quickly they process information. Additionally, the less time a QB stares down their target before a throw, the less time a DB has to react to the pass. And it’s this trait that makes Joe Burrow absolutely special.
His visual processing speed is unlike any quarterback’s I’ve ever seen. On average, it takes Burrow only 0.35 seconds to pull the trigger on a throw. That’s the quickest of any QB I’ve analyzed for this metric and it’s more than 40% faster than Justin Herbert’s trigger time and more than 50% faster than Jordan Love’s. And while trigger time only identifies how long a QB looks at their final target before starting their throwing motion, it seems to be a good gauge of how quickly they process information in general. This play against Auburn is a perfect example.
The clip isn’t glitching — I’ve frozen it each time Burrow locks-on to a different target. And you can see, the amount of time Burrow needs to decide if a receiver is “open” or “not open” is insanely small. On this play, outside of the first read, he spends no more than 0.333 seconds looking in the direction of any one receiver. It takes the human brain at least 0.2 seconds to process visual stimuli. So, here, he’s making the decision to throw or not in 0.133 seconds or less. For reference, that’s about how long a flash of lightning lasts ( — trust me, I know that sounds ridiculous. But it’s true).
And Burrow’s quick trigger isn’t just the product of the offense he played in at LSU last season. I went back and analyzed some of his throws from LSU in 2018 and from Ohio State in 2016. His decision-making was just as quick. This, combined with his accuracy, is really what sets him apart from any other quarterback in this draft class. His other measurables — release time, arm strength, physical size — are all relatively average. But I think it’s clear, in any sport, that the mind is the single-most important predictor of success.
Now, I also don’t want to sell the other quarterbacks short here, as each player’s situation was unique. Love, especially in 2019, did not have a whole lot of talent around him. Oftentimes, this had him waiting for receivers to gain separation. Herbert, on the other hand, had talent around him. But, whether it be by design or habit, he throws it to his first read more often than not (and, again, screen passes were not included in this analysis). I was, however, pleasantly surprised by Herbert’s visual processing. While he generally wants to throw it to his first read, he’s realizes when it’s not open. Tua’s trigger time was above average. He has excellent vision and he can quickly cycle through reads, but I have to wonder if his arm strength slows down his decision making just a bit. Not to get away from the objectivity, but if he has to really “think” about whether or not his arm can make the throw, his brain has to do more top-down processing, which can slow down decision making.
CONCLUSIONS & PLAYER COMPARISONS
Based on this analysis, my rankings of the QBs, from most likely to least likely to succeed, are as follows:
1) Joe Burrow
Situation is everything, but Burrow has all the tools needed to succeed at the next level. It’s not mentioned in this analysis, but his mobility is also a huge asset. Combined with his quick decision making, this can get him out of trouble and keep the defense honest. Tucking the ball and rushing for seven and eight yard chunks was a big part of LSU’s success in 2020.
Now, I hate to make comparisons to all-time greats because it implies a similar career trajectory, but — when talking about vision, biomechanics, and physical abilities — Joe Burrow’s game really does have shades of Joe Montana’s. It’s uncanny, actually. Again, situation is everything. Montana probably doesn’t win four rings without Bill Walsh and Jerry Rice involved. I’m certainly not saying I expect that from Burrow. But the comparison is not unfounded.
A lower-ceiling player comparison I like for Burrow is Jake Plummer. Plummer was a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time and he used his wheels to get out of trouble much like Burrow should be able to do.
2) Tua Tagovailoa
Medical evaluation not withstanding, Tua’s a difficult player to evaluate. When you take away the advantage of his surrounding talent, what does his game look like? I think Tua can be a really good pro, but I don’t think he’s the generational talent some are making him out to be.
His game might be best described as 40-year old Drew Brees’s arm combined with 37-year-old Michael Vick’s legs. Tua’s unbelievably accurate, he’s got the quickest release I’ve ever seen, but he also has an undeniably weak arm. His biomechanics are very similar to Mike Vick’s, and Tua is very mobile, but keep in mind as a freshman at Alabama he ran a 4.76 40-yard dash. He’s not exactly a burner.
Playing in the right system matters for every quarterback, but some may be more impervious to systems than others. I believe there are a hand full of coaches who could turn Tua into a perennial All-Pro. But there are probably three times as many coaches who could turn him into a bust by year three. The talent is obviously there, but whichever team drafts him better know what they are doing.
3) Jordan Love
Frankly, I had more fun analyzing Love’s tape than any of the other QBs. Rocket arm? Check. Big-play potential? Check. Horrendous telegraphing of some of his throws? Also, check. Love’s interception reel is the football equivalent of a Saw movie. When you watch it, you just wonder when the unnecessary violence is going to end.
Now, I did already allude to the situation Love was in last season at Utah State. Are you familiar with the term “food desert?” It’s an area where residents have limited access to nutritious food. Well, in 2019, Love played in a talent desert. No disrespect to his teammates, but I’m excited to see what Love can do in offense with some big-time playmakers. Josh Allen has had moderate success with the Bills and he had similar issues with staring down receivers in college. He also didn’t play with a ton of talent at Wyoming. And I see Love as a mini-Josh Allen. While Love’s arm isn’t quite on the level of Allen’s, they have similar biomechanics and I think Love can be the same No-No-No-Yes!-quarterback that Allen often is.
I actually like Jordan Love a lot, but this kid is not going to be Pat Mahomes. Mahomes is a unicorn. And while all NFL teams would love a unicorn, to win a football game, you just need a good horse.
4) Justin Herbert
Herbert has the look of a prototypical NFL quarterback. He’s tall, he’s got a great arm, and he’s an accurate passer. At times he looks like a high-level starter, but, at other times, he looks like a bust waiting to happen. As I said, his visual processing speed is better than I had initially thought. And, when he’s not throwing a screen pass, he can be impressive.
After frame-counting 111 of his throws, though, I kept coming back to the same player comparison: Derek Anderson. Yes, the big-bodied, journeyman QB. Their bodies move the same way and they both have big arms. Now, that’s not a total indictment on Herbert. Derek Anderson did make a Pro Bowl after all. But I just don’t think Herbert’s going to walk into a franchise, especially one drafting in the top-10 (looking at you, Miami), and fix all their problems.
TL;DR
Of the four quarterback prospects, Jordan Love has the strongest arm. With a maximum launch velocity that’s nearly equivalent to a 98 mile per hour fastball, he’s able to make some throws the other QBs cannot. While Tua Tagovailoa’s arm is a concern, he makes up for it with the quickest throwing motion I’ve ever analyzed — yes, it’s faster than Dan Marino’s. Joe Burrow, on the other hand, was in the middle of the pack for both arm strength and release time, but he’s the quickest decision maker. In fact, he took less time, on average, to pull the trigger on throws than any other quarterback I’ve tracked. Justin Herbert was generally around average for each metric. I see Joe Burrow having Joe Montana-like talent (not necessarily the same career), Tua is a combination of Drew Brees’s 40-year-old arm and Mike Vick’s 37-year-old legs, Love reminds me of a mini Josh Allen, and Herbert has a striking resemblance to Derek Anderson. And if the NFL Combine wants to hit me up for ideas on how to improve their process, my DMs are wide open.
Tim Dix is a writer based in Los Angeles, where he mostly produces television about sports or science or both. He can be contacted at timdixtv@gmail.com.
