Boston Red Sox Draft Analysis

The Boston Red Sox had their first selection at #24 overall and went with a player very few people thought would go in the first round in Mikey Romero. They then drafted two more highly expensive prep targets with their next two picks. To facilitate those very early prep selections, the Red Sox had to go with a lot of cheaper options on day two but those players still all have a decent shot at making an impact in the major leagues one day. They also managed to snag some intriguing developmental projects on day three that I think could be something one day.

In this piece, I will break down all of the players that the Red Sox drafted this year. From #24 overall to #609, here is every player joining the Red Sox organization through the draft and why you should be excited to maybe one day see them in Boston. I will not be grading draft picks or calling any player bad. If a pick is good is defined by your plan to develop them, I don’t have the knowledge to judge that so all picks are fine until we see that they were not.

The FV system is stupid but I use it to clickbait people. Prospects are infinitely more complicated than one number. It’s a loose baseline but I like players with low FVs and dislike ones with a higher FV. The report is what matters, not the number. X is a placeholder for players that I do not have enough information to assess.

1.24 2B/SS Mikey Romero, Orange Lutheran HS

A lot of my defensive grading is based on crowd-sourced information and athletic profiling. Scouting defense is the most time-consuming part of the scouting process because you can’t just watch ten swings, look at data and make conclusions. You need at least a few dozen plays on defense to accurately assess a player and finding those dozen plays is a pain in the ass because no one makes compilations of every fielding play for a prospect in the public sphere. Because of that, for anybody but the very top tier of prospects, I usually trust consensus opinions that look at the largest sample of plays- unless the consensus is obviously stupid. There is no consensus for Mikey Romero.

Mikey Romero is either considered an above-average shortstop or a terrible one with zero chance of sticking, depending on who you ask. MLB Pipeline falls in the former camp with Baseball America and Mason McRae falling in the latter. Prospect Live is also on the good shortstop side of things as are most of my team contacts that I’ve asked about Mikey. The athletic testing, however, is quite poor with limited range and only average arm strength. I probably lead towards the not a shortstop outcome but I have no confidence in that assessment.

The bat is what defines Mikey, however, and it looks to be quite a good one. Mikey Romero has a plus hit tool. The contact rates are superb and the swing is clearly optimized for making frequent contact. Romero’s swing is short and punchy which leads to him hitting velocity and he shows feel for recognizing spin. The bat stays on plane for a while and he shows the ability to adjust to what he is seeing to avoid being beat multiple times. The barrel stays in the zone so the contact window is longer too.

Mikey Romero also has obvious power potential. He had the best bat speed of any player at the MLB Draft Combine topping out at 84 MPH with a pretty standard 31.5 oz bat. The power potential is there to some degree but Mikey also tested poorly in events like the countermovement jump which calls his lower half explosion into doubt. I think the bat speed is truly elite so there is at least above-average raw power but it’s all hand and torso reliant so it won’t ever be elite power.

I also don’t think Mikey is that likely to get to all of that power in games, given how contact-oriented the swing is. He has a deep connection point that stops him from building up his bat speed in games and as a result makes it hard for Romero to pull the ball with authority. The swing is also a bit flat and there’s limited feel to elevate. Romero has power potential but it’s hard to see how it will manifest right now.

Mikey Romero will flash signs of both a plus hit tool and plus power. Those are almost never at the same time and likely never will be but he shows promise in a multitude of ways. If the Red Sox are higher on his athleticism and long term outlook at shortstop then he made sense as a first round pick. It’s also worth recognizing that Romero signed for slightly below the slot value.

2.41 3B/SS/P Cutter Coffey, Liberty High School

Cutter Coffey played both ways in high school and actually would have been a top 300 prospect for me as a pitcher but it sounds like he is forsaking the mound so I’ll skip over that and only analyze Coffey at the plate.

Cutter Coffey predictably has a cannon in the infield given that he is throwing 95 MPH off of the mound. There is also some semblance of accuracy and he shows power from multiple slots. Cutter Coffey is a bit of a thicker person without great lateral mobility and speed. He plays shortstop right now but as he ages, he’ll slide to the hot corner and provide quality defense there.

The power is loud and impactful. Coffey made some adjustments to his swing this spring that let him get a lot more out of his backside and as a result, the power has taken off. There are some explosive movements to his swing with lightning quick hands and a strong lower half. I’m fairly confident that Coffey will grow into plus power in his prime.

The hit tool has some more questions due to the violent nature of his strike but he still hit for average in high school. The bat path is good- maybe even a bit too short and he shows feel for recognizing spin. I have the hit tool as below-average due to minor swing and miss concerns but only barely. The power and hit combo are potent in tandem and he’ll stick at third. If the Red Sox think the hit tool is just a teensy bit better than I do then Coffey would be worthy of a first round signing bonus.

2.79 RF/CF Roman Anthony, Stoneman Douglas HS

Roman Anthony is another prep bat that the Red Sox opted to give first round money to in the second round. Anthony has loud tools with the potential for plus speed, arm strength, defense in right field, and of course, power. The concern is the hit tool that will define if he can play in the majors.

The hit tool has made major strides in the last year, however. Roman Anthony cut his strikeout rate from 19.3% to 11.6% as a senior at Marjory Stoneman Douglas. I actually like the bat path and he makes solid swing decisions so there is hope for the hit tool. The reason I struggle to believe in Roman’s hit tool is that he just gets stiff. Most of that stiffness is in his lead leg and his stiff posture makes it hard for him to adapt to stuff down in the zone. There is also some uncontrolled violence that gives me some pause. I think given the caliber of the athlete, it is very possible I’m overstating that concern and he can clean up his posture issues.

The main attraction here, however, is Roman’s ability to hit for power. Roman Anthony has electric bat speed and generates a lot of torque with his very rotational swing. His lower half is just as attractive as the upper body with strength and speed. the pelvis can leak early and sometimes the shorter path will gets his arms out in front of the hips but the power potential is incredibly obvious. Anthony also has a fairly steep VBA and hits with positive attack angles so I think the power should mostly play in games.

Roman Anthony is a plus athlete with strong run times in every event he’s done. The only concern regarding the long term speed- and as such defensive profile is that there is still considerable projection in Anthony’s 6'3" frame and he’ll probably fill in a bit more below the waist. Depending on how the body progresses will decide if he sticks in centerfield or not. If he can’t stick then his plus arm will play in right field where he throws hard and on a line with some accuracy. Anthony also has a short arm action that might hypothetically help the arm play up.

Roman Anthony is a tooled up kid whose value to the Red Sox will be defined by the hit tool and physical projection. The Red Sox have a habit of taking players with hit questions which I would assume means that Boston thinks they can fix it. If they can then Anthony is great value even at a first round bonus because the tools play. If they can’t then things are a bit murkier.

3.99 RP/SP Dalton Rogers, Southern Mississippi

If you had offered me a 1000:1 odds that Dalton Rogers wouldn’t have gone in the first three rounds I would have taken them. As in if he goes in the first three rounds I give you a thousand dollars and if he doesn’t you give me one. I don’t really think Dalton Rogers is bad per se, he just doesn’t make sense to me this early- on paper.

Dalton Rogers pitched exclusively in relief in college last year and only at most three of those guys are drafted in the first three rounds usually. Additionally, he’s a draft eligible sophomore and as a result, probably won’t save the Red Sox that much money. He used one pitch close to 90% of the time and still had control issues. Those are all reasons to not take him early no matter how good the stuff metrics may be. I get why the Red Sox took him so early but also I don’t at all.

Dalton Rogers has a very modern fastball that should dominate in the majors. The pitch certainly dominated at the collegiate level which led to Rogers throwing it 87.6% of the time and he found great success in doing so with a 1.95 ERA and a 3.31 FIP. Dalton Rogers, obviously, can’t continue to spam the fastball to such a ridiculous degree at the next level though, no matter how good it may be.

That fastball really is that good though and there are shades of Freddy Peralta in the profile. Dalton Rogers throws from what Trackman has as a 5.07' release height which would be one of the lowest in the majors. He is theoretically, the rare player with above-average vertical movement from such a low release. The fastball, in theory, averages 18.1" IVB and 12.1" HB which would be a fantastic movement profile.

I have a hard time believing that though when the fastball averages less than 2000 RPMs. Josh Winder has 99% spin efficiency on his fastball that is 3 RPMs higher and gets 17.5" IVB and 8" HB. I think it’s likely that Rogers is playing with a miscalibrated trackman and is closer to average ride than plus movement. The VAA is still incredible because of how low the release height is but it’s maybe not quite generational.

The fastball velocity is solid and thrown from the left handed side. Dalton Rogers sits at 93.2 MPH and has touched as high as 96.2 MPH. Dalton Rogers also has above-average extension so the velocity plays up. However, there are some concerns that he won’t be able to hold that velocity, if stretched out to start. This is largely because of his 5'11" frame and I don’t think there is much room for further strength projection. In spite, of those minor quibbles, this is still an electric fastball with both velocity and elite angle. He needs to elevate a lot more but even down in the zone, this pitch fucks.

The secondaries actually have potential, even if they lack feel because of a lack of usage at the present time. The changeup is the best one by far. The pitch has above-average shape with 6.7" IVB and 14.1" HB even if it is nothing spectacular. There is nearly 10 MPH of velocity separation as well while only shaving off ~100 RPMs. There is some deceptive elements here and solid movement but he often hangs them and struggles to find the zone. It is a loose average projection on the pitch but he has to use it more even if it winds up as below-average.

The slurve is solidish too in a small sample given that he only uses it 3.8% of the time. The hybrid pitch is thrown at 81.5 MPH with just -6.5" IVB and 9.1" HB. I don’t think it’s even an average pitch unless he adds velocity and there is both limited feel and command. At the same time, I wonder if calling it a slider would make it seem good? -6.5" IVB is more than all but one slider this year and 9" of sweep is solid too from a lower slot. At the same time, if it’s a curveball then it’s an awful pitch on both planes with only slightly below-average velo. It’s a weird hybrid slurve that I might buy in on with performance but for now, can’t trust. I totally get it if the Red Sox disagree. The fact that it is another very low spin pitch limits shape projection as well.

I get why the Red Sox would take Dalton Rogers this early and I don’t even necessarily dislike the pick that much. I just find it hard to properly respect someone using one pitch 88% of the time and walking 15% of batters while spamming the fastball in relief. The stuff is here and if things break right then he is a starting pitcher- possibly even a very good one. A bullpen role is the likely outcome but the fastball should do a lot of work in that role. It’s a fine pick it’s just a surprising and risky one.

4.129 2B Chase Meidroth, San Diego

Chase Meidroth has probably the best contact skills in the entire draft. He had the highest contact rate of any player with 50+ BBE in a trackman game at 95.2%. As you would expect, the player with the highest contact rate in college baseball strikes out 9.1% of the time.

How does that make sense? Meidroth simply doesn’t believe in swinging the bat. Chase Meidroth only swung at 33.7% of pitches this year. That is over 10% less than the average hitter and in the 4th percentile. He has no ability to discern if what he swinging at is in the zone or not. His zone swing rate is in the 1st percentile at 50.2% in Trackman games. He only chases 19% of the time but relative to his zone-swing rates that really is not good. The abundance of strikes looking is why he still strikes out some despite having the best contact rates in the country.

The BABIP skills are not all that strong to the surprise of no one. Nobody not named Luis Arráez has good BABIP skills when making so much contact though. Meidroth does not hit the ball particularly hard as we’ll cover more in depth later. He also has below-average line drive rates, only 55 grade popup rates, and 55 grade spray charts. The spin traits are also below-average.

Chase Meidroth’s raw power is a complicated element of his game. Meidroth has a top 8th EV of 98.8 MPH and a Max EV of 101.5 MPH in Trackman games when you filter out all batted balls with low launch confidence and a launch angle below 0°. However, a source has told me that they have him at a 90th EV of 101.2 MPH and a Max EV of 106 MPH which would put Meidroth right around the collegiate average. I have no idea what they are looking at but I’m choosing to side with the 117 BBE Trackman sample that I have when judging his raw power. I would assume that the Red Sox are looking at the more optimistic numbers.

Then again, Chase Meidroth has a 74th percentile ISOcon this year? So maybe the power is really something? He doesn’t hit the ball in the air very often or hit that many line drives so that can’t be why there is some game power. I guess the EVs have to be better than I thought?

Truth be told I have no idea what to make of Chase Meidroth. I know he makes a lot of contact and the swing mechanics look good. I think he’s probably a second baseman with very little power which is a profile I dislike- perhaps somewhat irrationally. However, I know some people think he has the arm to potentially play third and some reports have the EVs listed higher. I have a 35 FV on Meidroth but I totally understand why the Red Sox like him more and don’t really hate this pick.

5.159 RP Noah Dean, Old Dominion

I already wrote a very detailed scouting report of Noah Dean in my Relievers Blog so if you want more on him as a pitcher, go read that one. This report is going to go into less detail and work as more of a general overview.

Noah Dean is one of the best pure relievers in this year’s draft but there is no sugarcoating the fact that he is just a reliever. The fastball is electric with Dean averaging 95.6 MPH and touching as high as 99 MPH from the left handed side of the rubber. On top of the velocity, Dean averages 2375 RPMs from a very vertical arm slot.

The vertical slot with high spin rates leads to Noah Dean getting elite vertical movement on his fastball. The fastball is thrown on a 1:00 axis with very high spin efficiency and as a result Dean gets 21.8" IVB on average to go along with 9.3" of arm side movement. That is above-average horizontal action on a four-seam fastball.

That is more vertical movement than anyone in College Baseball who averages at least 93 MPH on their fastball. The only minor leaguer I know of with more vertical movement at 93+ is Daniel Espino. There is no major leaguer with more vertical movement than Dean with the same specifications. The release is generic at 6' but who cares when you have that much vertical movement. Obviously, there are concerns about the accuracy of the Trackman, however. Still, the fact that it’s better than all his collegiate peers clearly suggests that the vertical movement is not a fluke.

On top of the 80 grade fastball, Noah Dean has what might potentially be a plus curveball. The curveball has an incredible shape as he averages -15.4" IVB on average. That is in the 92nd percentile of curveball drop. He also has 10" of sweep. 78 MPH isn’t incredible velocity for a curve but for one with as much drop as Dean, it’s more than enough.

The problem with Dean’s curve is deception. The fastball and curve are separated by 18 MPH with completely opposite shape. They don’t tunnel for even a second, and as such the curveball gets very few chases despite great shape. Dean has elite feel for spin and depth so this is a high upside breaking ball but he does have to revamp the shape some to cut it as a high leverage reliever.

The control woes are also an obvious flaw which is why Dean was still available at #159 despite 80 grade stuff. Noah Dean is an uber-talented arm but is too flawed as a reliever to go much higher than this. I do like the value for the Red Sox though and he has as high of a chance as anyone the Red Sox drafted to be a valued contributor in the major leagues one day.

6.189 SP/RP Alex Hoppe, UNC Greensboro

I already wrote a very detailed scouting report of Alex Hoppe in my under slot targets Blog so if you want more on him as a pitcher, go read that one. This report is going to go into less detail and work as more of a general overview.

I was a bit too high on Alex Hoppe before the draft. I under estimated how common his general profile was and how much of an impact age should probably have. That does not mean I dislike Hoppe in any way, he’s slid from a very late third round grade to a very early fourth round one for me. Based on his signing for only $32,250; I still consider this to be one of the best value selections of the entire draft.

Alex Hoppe has a plus fastball. The pitch touches as high as 99.2 MPH and averaged 96.3 MPH this year. That was as a reliever but Hoppe was still averaging over 40 pitches per outing so I’m not expecting that big of a dropoff if stretched out to start. The fastball has above-average ride from a generic release height on top of that velocity. Plus horizontal movement at 12.3" HB is just the icing on the cake.

The slider is nasty too. He throws it at 85.4 MPH with both depth and sweep as he averages 0.2" IVB and 11.6" HB. He throws from a somewhat low slot that helps the slider play up as well. He got swinging-strikes on 25.2% of sliders last year and those whiffs came both in the zone and out.

The primary problem with the slider is a lack of command. Hoppe struggles to throw the pitch in the zone with any regularity. His zone rate was just below 25% this year. Hoppe doesn’t just barely miss either, he is often throwing sliders way off the plate and in the dirt. Low-level hitters will chase that crap but it won’t fly at the higher levels. This slider has plus shape but it’s only an above-average grade until he figures out where the heck he is going with it.

The changeup rounds out the repertoire. Alex Hoppe only threw 11 of them this year with Trackman data so take all of this with a grain of salt. The changeup is inarguably a distinct pitch and also inarguably really good pitch specs. The changeup sits at 86.4 MPH with a spin rate of 1848 RPMs. That is 9.9 MPH slower than the fastball. He throws the Cambio on a 2:00 spin tilt with high efficiency and the result is him getting 17.5 HB and 11.7 IVB on the changeup.

That is 93rd percentile arm-side movement on the changeup relative to the major leagues. The depth is limited but the one plane movement might help him sell it as the fastball before it runs away from them and misses bats/gets weak contact because of poor timing due to the velocity difference. The feel is absolutely abysmal and it will take serious work to develop the pitch but there is real impact potential in the changeup.

Alex Hoppe has some command woes. Spoiler alert but pretty much every arm the Red Sox drafted this year has below-average command. He has good batted ball traits due to his fastball shape and the potential for three pitches. As such, I want to see him get a chance to start. However, I also think he probably winds up in the bullpen long term, if only because he is already 23. I still love this pick and player but the flaws are larger than I acknowledged last time I wrote about him.

7.219 RP/SP Caleb Bolden, TCU

Caleb Bolden is another pitcher with command woes but solid stuff that could be good with a velocity boost. This is the favorite profile of teams with more modern pitching development and an analytical focus. Coincidentally, it’s one of my favorite molds as well. Admittedly, Bolden isn’t my favorite version of the profile but he still has the potential to make an impact in the majors one day.

The fastball is an interesting but highly flawed pitch. Bolden only sits at 92 MPH and tops out at 95 as a right handed starter. I will note that some people in the industry I’ve talked to think he can add a few ticks more velocity. The spin rates are right around league average- maybe a tick above. The fastball has dead zone movement with a tail. He gets 13.6" IVB and 13.8" HB on average. So where is the appeal at all whatsoever?

Caleb Borden has excellent release traits and that is why I find the fastball intriguing. Borden throws from a low arm slot with a 5.2' vertical release point that flattens his VAA up in the zone. The problem is that at the end of the day this is a dead zone fastball so it will still miss no bats. Except, it doesn’t have to remain a dead zone fastball; I think Bolden is an ideal candidate to transition to a sinker. Not only would such a change help the fastball have some viability but it would also better set up the slider.

The reasons for believing in the sinker development is he already kind of has one in his changeup. The changeup has 3.9" IVB and 15.2" HB which is good movement for either a changeup or sinker. The problem with his changeup is that Bolden only throws it 5MPH slower than the fastball.

Subtracting velocity is the path for conventional changeup development but what if we do the opposite? What if we bring it up to where the fastball velocity is and give him a sinking option? Obviously, sinker development is not that simple but the feel to pronate around a changeup and get depth on it, has me believing that Bolden can develop a good sinker.

The sweeper is a dirty pitch that easily warrants a plus grade. The sweep should probably be thrown a bit harder than 80.7 MPH on average but the movement is so incredible that I don’t think it’s neccesarily mandatory for Bolden to do so. Bolden averages -3.8" IVB and 13.2" HB on the sweeper. The only major league pitches with as much velo and movement in both directions belong to Sonny Gray, Aaron Bummer, Clarke Schmidt, José Berríos, Charlie Morton and Matt Brash (The Knuckle Curve). That is elite company for Bolden to consider himself a part of.

Caleb Bolden has great slider shape and the potential for a good sinker from the same tunnel with inverted movement. If Bolden can add more velocity then both pitches could take off and he might be ticketed for a high leverage relief role. My concerns boil down to secondary command, and I don’t think the changeup will work if he switches to a sinker. There is a route to starting here but he’s likely a reliever with a sweeper heavy approach.

8.249 SP Jonathan Brand, Miami (Ohio)

Jonathan Brand is another low release savant who doesn’t throw hard but has a track record of performing and somewhat interesting stuff. I am lower on Brand because I don’t think there is room to improve his velocity with a 5'9" frame that is already pretty much maxed out and Brand is only sitting at 91 MPH and topping out at 95 MPH right now. If you think he can add a tick or two then I can understand being more optimistic.

My concern is that the fastball movement profile is very poor. The fastball has below-average ride even on the overly generous college trackman units. Brand gets just 15.2" IVB and 10.6" HB. This is a generic spin pitch with efficiency issues from a generic slot and only average spin rates. The fastball has some upside because it’s a 5' release height and 1.5' horizontal release but it’s hard to see the pitch really being all that dominant.

The slider is probably Jonathan Brand’s best pitch. He sits at 82 MPH with spin rates of about 2600 RPMs. The pitch has generic gyroball shape from a sub-optimal horizontal release and as such only grades out as average. The changeup is there with some depth at 1700 RPMs and 80 MPH but he gets very little horizontal action most of the time. Some upside but fringy pitch overall. The curveball has -12.8" IVB and 12.8" HB but is only thrown at 75.9 MPH. As a result, the pitch is loopy and doesn’t really get anyone to expand the zone in pursuit of it.

If I’m being totally honest, I don’t think Jonathan Brand projects for much more than average command. The low release is intriguing but I’m fairly underwhelmed by the profile for an 8th round pick, I just think the range of likely outcomes tops out near a AAA depth starter. This is also a 7.5K signing bonus, so I think the Red Sox would be more than happy with that outcome.

9.279 C Brooks Brannon, Randleman High School

Brooks Brannon has big power from behind the plate and those players tend to stumble into regular playing time in the majors; even when they do not hit. Brannon still could hit but I do think his most likely role is probably as a part time catcher with pop and an above-average arm. He’s not the smoothest blocker of breaking balls and is a bit larger so sticking behind the plate is not a guarantee either. The bat is what you buy on and catching is an arguable bonus.

As I already mentioned, Brooks Brannon has plus raw power. He has elite max bat speed and also a very strong lower half. His issues in the power deparment primarily stem from him getting disjointed and not far enough into his backside before the hands start to fire. I also have some concerns with his ability to elevate due to swing shape but that is a much more minor concern.

Brooks Brannon has some swing and miss to his game as well. The approach is patient as a whole in my looks but he struggles with good breaking balls. The bat path is solid and he won’t ever be completely lost at the plate but his timing is off and he swings through stuff as a result. The offensive upside here is loud and he can catch but theere is certainly work to be done. Still good value for this late in the draft.

10.309 SP/RP Isaac Coffey, Oral Roberts

I had never watched Isaac Coffey or even heard of him before the draft. If I had I probably would have hyped him up way too much because it’s such a fun profile. Fun and good are very different things, obviously, but there is quite a bit to like in Coffey and I think he could provide real vaue in the majors one day.

Isaac Coffey is your stereotypical unique look reliever in a lot of ways but he has a real chance of sticking in a starter and stands out a bit more than the rest. The fastball only sits at 89.4 MPH as a starter in a limited sample with Trackman data. The pitch is a two-seamer with 11.2" IVB and 19.3" HB. That is 99th percentile horizontal movement and fairly average depth.

The real draw of the fastball though is the arm angle. Isaac Coffey throws from a 4.3' release height with a 2.9' horizontal release. Those are both extreme outlier figures. Especially with this kind of velocity. Only one pitcher in college baseball throws this hard from as low of an arm slot. That one pitcher is William Kempner who admittedly throws a lot harder.

Regardless, the pitch has enough vertical movement to function as a flat VAA whiff pitch up in the zone or more optimally down in the zone and to the gloved side for called strikes and a lot of groundballs. This is a deadly hybrid offering that has the velocity to actually translate. He also will occasionally mix in a slightly slower cutter with ~9" IVB and 2" of cut which has some viability as well.

The breaking ball has obscene movement from the optimal slot for this kind of breaking ball. Coffey averages -3.1" IVB and 18.5" of sweep on his slider. Only one pitch in the majors averages as much movement on both planes- Phil Maton’s curveball. When you combine elite movement with elite arm angle that enhances the HAA you should have and elite pitch. But… Isaac Coffey only averages 72.5 MPH wiht his slider. There is obvious potential here but he needs to add velocity and a lot of it for it to play. We’ll see what the shape looks like after Coffey does that; I’d bet it will look quite a bit different.

The changeup is Coffey’s least refined pitch with no feel or command but I think it will still eventually become his best one.. The changeup sits at 80 MPH on average which is solid separation from the fastball at a comparable spin rate. The more important element is his 80 grade movement profile as Coffey averaged -0.1" IVB and 20.6" HB on the changeup this year. I think with some work this pitch could do a lot of damage to opposing hitters. He hardly throws it and again feel, but he shouldn’t need elite feel for it to perform in all likelihood.

The other interesting thing about Isaac Coffey is that he throws strikes at an incredibly high rate despite an unorthodox delivery. He walked just 4.4% of batters this year and 3.7% the year prior. Isaac Coffey has a chance to stick in the rotation despite how weird it looks because he throws strikes at a high rate and has three promising pitches. The velocity holds up in the later innings as well. For Coffey to truly be an impact arm he has to find more velocity but even as is, there is big league upside.

11.339 RP/SP Marques Johnson, Long Beach State

I think Marques Johnson probably will wind up in the bullpen at the next level due to a lack of pitches that can beat left handed hitters. However, he has three pitches with decent control and weak contact so it’s not impossible he sticks in the rotation. I think the upside is somewhat limited but I do still like the profile.

The fastball primary is mostly a cutter. He throws it with 14" IVB and 1" of armside run but over half of them are moving to the glove side ever so slightly. He supinates on release and I don’t think you can change that without messing up his breaking balls which are too important to mess with. The spin rates are high at 2534 RPMs on average but it naive to expect him to add rise to the fastball given the way he naturally supinates.

The fastball velocity is fine but unspectacular. He throws the fastball at 91.1 MPH on average and tops out at 95.5 MPH. I think the velocity will probably uptick if forced into a relief role full time but it also could also improve with better conditioning in pro ball. The other draw is a unique release at a 5.2' release height and a 1.4' horizontal release.

I’m not entirely sure how this fastball plays with the weird amalgamatioin of traits but I lean towards it working. The pitch is often used down in the zone for called strikes and groundballs due to the horizontal and gyro element. However, he can also miss bats up in the zone with enough ride and a low release that lead to flat VAAs and popups as well. Where the velocity settles will determine a lot but I’m fairly optimistic.

The breaking balls both show promise but I’m not sure eith of them are as elite as the movement profile suggests. The more curveball esque slurvy sits at 80.5 MPH and has 15.1" of sweep. The slurve also has -6.8" drop (IVB) which is solid enough for the velocity and sweep. The pitch is somewhat undermined by a more medial release but the bigger knock is the lack of ability to land it in optimal spots- or in the zone at all. The deception is limited off of a cutter primary, and as such, he does not get that many chases either. The slurve has potential but it’s probably closer to average than a plus.

The slider is the better of the two due to the command differential and it probably tunnels better off of the cut-fastball. The slider sits at 82 MPH with average depth and 11.7" of sweep. The pitch has above-average in-zone whiff rates and above-average chase rates. What really separates the pitch though is his ability to backdoor it against lefties which leads to a surprisingly high 41.4% CSW.

I actually think that Marques might be best off by using the slider more than the cut-fastball. The curveball tunnels infinetly better off of it’s fellow breaking ball and the movement is distinct enough to play as a separate pitch. I’m actually going to suggest something blasphemous and say Marques should subtract velocity from the curve (Even better add velo to slider). I think there are three pitches here but as is, only two of them function.

All of that plus some control questions and the lack of any pitches that function to the arm side makes Marques probably a reliever long term. By no means does that mean there’s not a chance he can start and I want him to get that chance. Weird profile for sure but I think Marques Johnson is a lot more fun than most 11th round picks.

12.369 SP/RP Hayden Mullins, Auburn

Hayden Mullins was shut down with a still undiagnosed injury to his throwing arm in May. That injury was finally revealed to be a torn UCL after he was drafted and he now is undergoing Tommy John Surgery. That injury is probably why he was still on the board for the Red Sox in the 12th round.

Mullins has good stuff that still warranted being selected but there is injury risk on top of very poor control and a highly flawed batted ball profile. Mullins might have a chance to stick as a starter based on the three pitch repertoire but a bullpen outcome is far more likely given the flaws he also has.

Hayden Mullins does not throw hard. He only sits at 90.7 MPH and tops out at 94 MPH. The velocity has some room to grow but I think some timing issues with his arm action, is costing him in that department significantly. Cleaning up the arm action could go a long way in improving all of velocity, command, and health. It’s possible that the Red Sox have already identified how to tweak that and a healthy Mullins could shoot up the rankings.

The fastball release is generic but the feel for a high spin and highly efficient heater still gives Mullins a solid fastball. The fastball averages 19.1" IVB and 13.6" HB because it is close to perfect spin efficiency on a fastball with a spin factor of 26.1. There is no pitcher in the majors who averages as much movement on both planes. In the collegiate ranks, only five pitchers average as much vertical movement, horizontal movement, and velocity. The movement profile means that with any velo boost; Mullins would improve immensely and potentially have an impact pitch in the fastball.

The breaking ball is probably better. The shape is somewhat generic with just ~-7 IVB and 7 inches of sweep as well. The slurve sits at 80 MPH but what really makes it interesting is that he averages 2700 RPMs on it. The specs maybe aren’t all that overwhelming but Mullins has great results with the pitch because he locates it consistently down and off of the plate. It’s an above-average pitch that would also pop with a velocity boost.

The changeup is solid too but the feel/command element lags behind as Mullins will frequently spike the pitch. In the zone, however, the changeup excells. Mullins throws it at 83.2 MPH with spin rates that sit around 1700 RPMs. The pitch has above-average depth with 7.5" IVB and above-average fade at 16.1" HB. There is promise here for an average pitch but none of the traits are really stand out. In addition, there is considerable danger in a pitch that only really functions in the zone.

Hayden Mullins has three pitches that all show flashes but look largely average right now. He has a fairly significant issue with walks and more so wild pitches. The command is poor. There is some optimism there but combined with the health risk, it’s not hard to see how Mullins fell this far. If the Red Sox can clean up his mechanics he will be a steal once he gets healthy. That is a sizeable if.

13.399 SS/2B Gavin Kilen, Milton High School

Gavin Kilen is not signing with the Red Sox but he should make an impact at Louisvile in the next few years. The Cardinals newest infielder has a loud hit tool with a road to developing power and a decent shot at playing shortstop.

The hit tool is good but might need to be sacrificed for Kilen to develop power. The problem with his power is that his wrists are locked and not really imparting anything impactful on the ball. The hand speed is good and he has good rotational velocity with his hips. The problem is just stiffness that causes him to lose speed in that one part of his swing- also the usual timing issues that cause his hands to get out in front of his hips. Oh, and Kilen doesn’t get particularly deep in his glutes so despite some explosion in his lower half it doesn’t manifest in games.

Some of the power issues feel like simple fixes- for example the locked wrists. The problem is I think that locking in his wrists and keeping the bat steady throughout contributes to Kilen’s standout bat control and contact skills. You can theoretically fix that issue (And should) but there is risk in doingso. Kilen has good pitch recognition and should hit for average. The attack angles are poor and it’s a flatter bat path so there is some wOBAcon risk that could make it more logical to stick with prioritzing contact.

Gavin Kilen deserved a hefty bonus because he offers both plus contact rates and above-average bat speed. There is absolutely some mandatory tweaking to get to both of things in game but it’s an exciting combo. The fact that Kilen also has a solid chance of sticking at shortstop (Arm issues maybe pushing him off) is just the icing on the cake. I’m excited to see what Kilen does at Louisville over the next couple of years.

14.429 3B/SS Travis Sanders, Copperas Cove HS

Travis Sanders also failed to sign with the Red Sox. Texas Tech. has added a potential impact hitter to their lineup who they hope can take Jace Jung’s spot in the heart of the order eventually.

Travis Sanders is another prep bat with mixed reviews defensively. Some people rave about how slick Sanders is in the field. They call him a great athlete with a good frame. Others disparage his athleticism- call it only average and predict that he will slide to third base.

I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on Sanders’ defense as I’ve only see him field three groundballs total but based on the athletic testing over the previous summer, I would assume the pessimists are more correct. The arm strength is a plus in all likelihood but the speed is only average and I think he’ll slow down some as he grows into his frame.

Travis Sanders has some mechanical issues to work out but I do think there is real offensive potential here. The bat speed is above-average and Sanders effectively utilizes his lower half to generate power with good timing that leads to good hip-torso separation and higher top-end EVs. The concern is elevation, however. Sanders tends to flatten out shortly before the point of contact and as such will hit a lot of balls into the dirt and just hit general mishits.

The hit tool is hard to value. The swing is loose and easy but Sanders gets a little bit long in the back. At the same time, Sander is showing bat control with that length and has good core strength that makes it easy to maintain his posture as he swings. I think you clean up some of the stuff in the back-end and both the contact rates and groundball rates might improve. Sanders doesn’t have the loudest tools but he could still go high in a few years if he produces like I think he has the ability to.

15.459 RP/SP Nathan Landry, Missouri

I don’t dislike Landry as much as his FV suggests. Nathan Landry checks every box for a solid pitching prospect except for two. That one big box is velocity and Landry probably needs about 4 MPH on everything to get to above-average stuff. The smaller box is changeup development because the current configuration is terrible.

The fastball has a boyish appeal to it. Landry only sits at 89.4 MPH on average and tops out at 93.2 MPH in games with trackman data. The fastball plays above that because Landry theoretically averages just over 7' of extension but he still needs more actual velocity. The fastball also has above-averge rates at 18.6" IVB and a low release at 5.5'. It is a flat fastball with extension that would probably be a plus pitch with league average actual velocity.

The breaking ball shows some promise. It’s a bit of gyro heavy pitch but it has impressive depth with -1.1" IVB and still has some side spin. He throws from a lower slot that can make it hard to square up. The problem is that he only sits at 76.8 MPH which is nowhere near sufficient velocity. Add more velocity and the slider might be something, however.

The changeup is horrible. Landry just throws a slower four-seam fastball with almost no desireable traits. The pitch kills just over 600 RPMs and throws it 7 MPH slower than his fastball. He has high efficiency on a vertical axis so the changeup still gets 16.8" IVB. I think Landry might be an ideal splitter candidate and he at least has arm speed but it’s hard to muster any optimism for this changeup.

The primary draw of Nathan Landry might actually be control. Landry throws a metric ton of strikes and his ability to elevate the fastball lets it play at a high level. The fastball/slider combo could get him into an MLB bullpen with a modest velocity jump and the control will let the stuff play up. There are things to like here but he needs work and is almost certainly a reliever.

16.489 SP/RP Garrett Ramsey, Southern Mississippi

Garrett Ramsey has solid stuff but I genuinely have no idea what I would do with his development to make him better and that makes him hard for me to value highly. I don’t know how exactly to make any of his pitches at all better and the results and specs aren’t exactly spectacular for a reliever in the Conference USA. I like him but I’m lost so if I’m running a team he’s on my do not draft list. That does mean I think he is remotely bad and I might even be underselling him.

Garrett Ramsey has a very low release height at 4.6' on average in trackman games. He has good vertical movement relative to his release height at 14.4" IVB. The fastball might only sit at 91 MPH and top out at 94 MPH but the shape based on those attributes is comparable to Paul Sewald. Sewald throws slightly harder at 92.6 MPH on average but also has a 4.5' release height and 14" IVB. His fastball is one of the best pitches in baseball.

The thing is Sewald’s fastball is elite just as much because of the HAA. Sewald gets 12" of tail from a -3.5' horizontal release. Ramsey gets 7.9" HB from a 1.8' horizontal release. Paul Sewald having so much horizontal movement makes his fastball a great pitch for jamming hitters and a multi-purposed weapon that Ramsey’s really isn’t. His fastball doesn’t jam hitters like Sewald’s does and can get barreled up at the top of the zone. Yet, at the bottom of the zone it fails to miss bats. The traits are enviable but it’s stuck in the middle of two conflicting profiles and doesn’t really fit either right now.

The pitch is more comparable to Alexis Díaz’s fastball than Paul Sewald’s in all honesty. Alexis Díaz averages 14.4" IVB and 6.2" HB from a very comparable release with a 4.9' release height and 1.9' release side. Díaz is also one of the best relievers in the game by spamming his fastball 70% of the time. Except, again it’s not comparable because Alexis has a perceived velocity of 98 MPH. Garrett Ramsey has a perceived velocity of ~89.2 MPH.

If Ramsey adds 10 MPH to his fastball or drastically alters his mound positioning and improves the fastball HAA then he could have an elite one. Neither of those things feel particularly likely so I think he probably will remain stuck in the middle with a fairly mediocre one. I see the upside but I think it’s a tweener pitch without a clear path to dominating with it.

The slider is actually a disgusting pitch that might need more velocity but has incredible shape. Garrett Ramsey throws his slider at just 80.3 MPH which is plenty fine given where the fastball sits. He throws it with high spin rates that average over 2800 RPMs. Again though, movement is the calling card as Ramsey offers both plus depth and elite sweep. The sweeper has -0.4" IVB and 16.2" of sweep. I shouldn’t need to elaborate on how unhittable that is. The feel is somewhat limited and he struggles with it’s deployment against lefties but the pitch has obvious plus shape, even given the sub-optimal horizontal release.

The changeup of Gordon Ramsey also shows promise but it is much more of a work in progresss. The pitch stands out because he gets good vertical depth with just 3.8" IVB which is great changeup depth- especially at this level where everything says it drops less than it does. Ramsey also shows some feel to kill spin with him shaving off just about everything else.

The problem with Garrett Ramsey’s changeup is just about everyting else you could possible critique. He throws the changeup at 85.4 MPH on average which is less than 6 MPH slower than the fastball. He also has just 11.6" of fade which is below-average. The feel is limited and he struggles to find the zone with his cambio. I will once again hammer the table demanding he switch to a splitter but that feels like nothing more than a pipe dream at this point.

Garrett Ramsey’s command is below-average but he has a general ability to throw strikes at an average rate. I think I’d probably like to see him work on elevating the fastball and backdooring the slider so he’s not 100% reliant on the changeup to beat lefties. Adding velocity has to be a priority here but you would need a significant amount to really let the fastball cook. Garrett Ramsey was a pure reliever in college but I’m intrigued enough by what he offers to give him a chance to start in the minors. There are attractive elements here but Ramsey feels like he’s stuck in tweenerville right now.

17.519 LF/1B Deundre Jones, Lutheran South HS

Deundre Jones is not someone I am that familiar with so this is a very low confidence evaluation. In my limited looks, I was not all that impressed. Deundre Jones has limited defensive value and I don’t think the offensive upside is high enough to overcome those limitations in any likely outcome for his development.

Deundre is a hit first prospect with some hit tool concerns. The swing is loose and geared towards contact with a flat and short bat path. The problem is that there are inefficiencies in the hand load that add artificial length to the swing. In addition to that, Deundre only has 45 grade bat speed. The hand movement in conjunction with the bat speed leads to some concerns with Deundre’s ability to hit velocity.

The power is fairly suspect as you can imagine based on the limited bat speed. Deundre Jones has good strength in his lower half but that can only do so much. It’s a 5'10" frame without much strength projection and below-average bat speed. I like the force exerted by his leg and hips enough to call the raw power average but it still plays down in games because of the flat line-drive oriented swing.

There is some upside at the plate for Deundre Jones but not enough for me to overlook the athleticism and defensive concerns for too long. Fine value in the 17th without going overslot but my hopes are not that high for him. Maybe I’m completely off-base due in part to very limited issue.

18.549 P Austin Ehrlicher, Santa Rosa JUCO

Searching for data on Austin Ehrlicher is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. I haven’t found a scouting report on him literally anywhere. I have more video of him playing basketball than throwing a baseball. I can’t tell you how hard Ehrlicher throws or even what pitches he throws. For all I know he could be a knuckleballer.

Here is a complete list of things we know about Ehrlicher. He is 6'5" with a very projectable frame that could presumably add strength and velocity. Austin also probably has control issues based on his performance. That is the entire list. I obviously do not have enough information to accurately assess Austin Ehrlicher. The Red Sox evidentally agree with my assessment because they opted to designate him as a draft and follow player so they have a year to decide if he’s actually worth giving a pittance to sign him.

19.579 RP/SP Jaret Godman, Oklahoma

Jaret Godman is only a 30 FV for the time being because only one of his pitches even projects as average as is and he was a pure reliever in college. That being said, Godman could shoot up the ranks if he adopts a sweeper and I think he’s a likely candidate to do exactly that and have a completely nasty one at that.

Jaret Godman uses his sinker as his primary pitch and for the most part it is an effective starter. The sinker sits at 92.2 MPH and tops out at 95 MPH from the right handed side. The sinker has fairly average depth at 8.3" IVB but it comes from a low release at a 4.8' vertical release point. Godman also has elite tailing action with 17.8" of armside movement from a low slot. The sinker is lively and has potentially but for whatever reason, Godman often lives up in the zone with the sinker and is hammered as a result. The VAA is flat enough to miss some bats up there but not enough to make it a worthwhile decision to lose so much in contact quality suppression.

The slider is absolutely terrible as is. The pitch has below-average depth with just 3.1" IVB and less than 4" of sweep as well. The pitch also only sits at 79.8 MPH. The only reason to buy in on the slider is a low arm slot right now and that just doesn’t offer enough with how poor the rest of the traits are. If Godman were to switch to a sweeper, however…

The potential of the slider is the ability to make it into a wipeout sweeper. Godman is a natural supinator with low spin efficiency. He throws with two-seam grip and seam-shifted wake on one pitch already. He has the ideal arm slot for a sweeper and above-average spin rates. Picking up a sweeper would be relatively easy for Godman and would transform the profile.

The changeup is solid in a vacuum but it might bleed into the sinker a bit too much. Jaret Godman gets 5.9" IVB and 17" of fade on his changeup which are both above-average figures- and barely any different from the sinker. The pitch is thrown roughly 8.5 MPH slower at 83.5 MPH on average. That is maybe enough velocity separation to work with similar movement profiles but I think it probably isn’t. If he can slow the pitch or add more depth it could be deadly but for now, I think it’s not a good pitch. Oh, and he has very little feel for it so the deception element could be completely irrelevant.

Jaret Godman offers only one pitch that even projects as average right now. There is road to developing two more of them though and one of them has actually elite potential. There is some velocity upside here and Godman throws strikes. The profile is not good right now but with good player development, Godman might look like a steal in a year.

20.609 RP Connor Butler, Biola

Connor Butler struck out 44% of batters this year at Biola. He also walked 30% of batters. Those control issues as well as him likely only having two pitches probably force Connor Butler to the bullpen. The stuff is incredible though and with even modest gains in control, Butler could have a future in the major leagues.

The fastball is an electric pitch. Connor Butler sits at 94.2 MPH with the heater from the left handed side and can reach back for 97 MPH in a pinch. The pitch has high spin rates with Butler sitting just above 2400 RPMs and he throws with 98% spin efficiency on a 10:45 spin axis. The result pitch has above-average movement on both planes with 17.2" IVB and 11.7" HB on average. That fastball also comes from what is just a 5.5' release height. Butler offers both a plus VAA and plus velocity as a lefty. It’s not hard to see why he misses so many bats with the pitch.

The breaking ball is just better. Connor Butler’s curveball is an outlier pitch. Butler only sits at 79 MPH but he averages -18" IVB. There are zero pitches in the majors with as much drop (Min 1 pitch) and as much velocity. There are also zero college arms with as much depth and velocity. There is also no one in the FSL or PCL with a curveball that has as much drop and velocity. (Jack Ralston is 1 MPH from joining the party with his -18.6" IVB curve at 78 MPH). This is an outlier curveball that is incredibly tough to hit.

The way that Connor Butler acheives so much drop on his curveball is unusual. Most curveballs with crazy depth have high spin rates but that is not Connor Butler. Butler throws his curve with a spin rate of just 2301 RPMs. So how does he get so much drop? Butler throws his curveball with 87% spin efficiency on a 5:15 spin axis. I’m skeptical of how much you can still improve the curveball shape at this point but it doesn’t really matter because the curveball is elite as is. He has to work on landing the pitch for a strike and it maybe doesn’t get as many chases as the shape would warrant but it’s still nearly an elite pitch.

The changeup isn’t hopeless but I’m not optimistic that Butler will ever develop one. The pitch has very little depth and below-average fade but there is at least good separation and some feel to kill spin. I think Butler is probably best off scratching it entirely though and focusing on the FB/CB combo exclusively in relieif. If he can develop any arm side command than he should have no issues with beating right handed bats with those two pitch.

Command is what will decide if Connor Butler makes it to the majors. I have very little video so I’m not going to guess on how that could be improved. The stuff is loud and I’m a believer in stuff above all else. However, there is a minimum threshold for strike throwing and Butler probably won’t clear that right now. There has to be at least minor gains in command for him to ever make it in the majors. If he gets to even 35 command than the stuff might propel Butler into a moderately high leverage role. I like the value of this pick here for the Red Sox.

That was way longer than I planned lol. Hopefully, you enjoyed it. I think I’ll wind up taking some time off of draft stuff for the first time in forever and do a piece breaking down every prospect traded. I’ll be back sometime next week with the Yankees draft recap after that.