MLB Draft Top 500 Prospects

With the MLB Draft only a few days away it is time for my first and only full draft board. I’ve tweeted out small snippets of the board over the last few months as I go through the process but this will be the only time I actually break down players in-depth and dive into what really makes them tick.

Usually, this is where I would put a disclaimer about not having sources or access to the data that most draft analysts do. That is not the case this year as I was kindly given access to the entire trackman database for college baseball. Not only that, but I was also given the pitch data for 170 pitchers who participated in the summer showcase circuit. I even had conversations with a few area scouts, team employees, agents, and even draft prospects themselves about players. I’ve had multiple players reach out to me asking for a write-up on them. This draft season has been beyond my wildest dreams.

This is the first time I’ve ever had full access and as such, I am a lot more confident in my player analysis and I was able to scout a lot more players. My rankings are more driven by pure data this year than in years past as a result but there is still a large weight on video analysis of every player and projection beyond the raw data.

Obviously, I won’t be covering all 500 players with the usual amount of depth I put into these things. I broke Medium with my compendium; that was barely even a third of the players I plan to include in this piece. This piece will only cover in the full depth you see on the Compendium, all of the players I have a 55+ FV on. Those are instant top 100 prospects coming out of the draft.

The 50 FVs, are the rest of the players I have a first-round grade on. In theory, I will write about five paragraphs or thereabouts on the players in that tier. Then for the 45 FVs- that is players I have a 2nd or 3rd round grade on, they will get just two paragraphs breaking them down. For everyone else, I will provide a link to a spreadsheet at the end of this article with all my unedited notes on the last 385 players. There are over 150,000 words of brand new original content on there so there is still lots more to read after this.

I’m sure you have questions about my draft philosophy, or what some of the stats I use mean, and why I value them the way I do. I already answered most of those questions two days ago in this post. I also have more detailed writeups on some of the top seniors that I posted yesterday and you can read. I also broke down some of the underperforming players you will see on this list- particularly on the college side. You can read about them in more depth here. If you want more detail on why I valued a reliever the way I do, I’m publishing a piece where I go in-depth on them tomorrow.

Anywho, without further preamble, here is my ranking of the top 500 players in the 2022 MLB First Year Player Draft:

Strike zone parameters are based on height for hitters. For pitchers, I assume every opposing hitter is 6'1"

60 FVs

1. CF Andruw Jones Jr., Wesleyan High School

Andruw Jones Jr. is pretty much the consensus top player in the draft. He’s been a popular name for a while because of who his father is but he’s come on strong in the last year and established himself independent of his bloodlines as the premium talent at #1.

Andruw Jones Jr. doesn’t really have a carrying tool, you could argue any of his tools are his best tool, in fact. That is what makes Andruw Jones Jr. so special, the fact that all of his tools have very real plus upside. There was only one prospect on my preseason top 100 who plays a premium position and was at least a 60 in everything (Except eye). That player is Michael Harris II (Corbin Carroll was half a grade short on arm) who I had as my #15 prospect in the MLB before the season and he’s proven worthy of that ranking with his hot start to 2021 that has now carried him all the way to the majors.

Andruw Jones Jr. is in that same tier of prospect as Harris II. Harris gets the slight edge due to his proximity but Jones Jr. is only inches behind and is a top 20 prospect in the sport with his well-rounded blend of pluses across the board. If he has a strong debut season in Low A after being drafted he could rise even higher before I release next year’s list.

He’s the best draft prospect since Adley Rutschman and should go #1 unless there are ridiculous savings to be made by taking another top-five talent at #1. I have sources confirming that at least two of the other players in my top five will offer pretty much no extra savings at #1 so that seems doubtful.

Andruw Jones Jr. has plus contact skills. He whiffed just 18.5% of the time during the summer showcase games in MLB stadiums and struck out just 6.2% of the time in his senior season at Wesleyan in which he won the State Championship. There’s so much more to the contact skills than just the whiff rates though.

Andruw Jones Jr. has a flat bat path that is geared towards making contact. He’s got a compact and simple swing he can easily repeat and does often repeat. The barrel gets in the zone early and lives there for a good while which gives him a longer window of opportunity than most hitters have. He has a quiet load without much risk of getting tied up and it’s just going to result in a lot of contact as it always had. There are zero problems with velocity and he shows enough breaking ball recognition to not raise any concerns even if it’s not a standout skill at this point. There’s minimal risk in the swing being exposed as he climbs the ladder.

The contact quality is honestly just as impressive if not more so than the contact quantity. I’m not even talking about his ability to hit power here but just the ability to hit the ball at optimal launch angles. Druw Jones hits the ball at optimal flight paths at a ridiculously high rate and combines it with hard contact.

Andruw rarely mishits balls in both the form of popups and the useless super low launch angle groundballs. Jones Jr. shows elite barrel accuracy as well with very high line drive rates in both showcase games against top competition and in regular high school play.

He has a flatter bat path that allows him to hit with more backspin than a lot of his peers but still puts the ball in the air and has such optimal launch angles because of good his attack angles are. He goes the other way consistently and that also helps the BABIP profile. Druw does damage on contact even independent of his power.

Let’s make no mistake, Druw Jones has plus raw power and actually a little more on top of that. I have it graded as a 65 and you could argue that’s a tad conservative. The bat speed is electric with top-tier bat speed but honestly, the 90th percentile showings are underselling him. Of the thousands of perfect game showcase participants over the last however many years, Druw Jones has the second-highest impact momentum ever. That is the speed of the bat at contact adjusted for the weight of the bat. It’s a literal measure of how much force Andruw Jones Jr. exerts when he makes contact.

Andruw Jones Jr. has elite power upside. The ability is there to put the ball in the air at a good enough rate and he hits the ball stupid hard. He has great hip-torso separation in his swing to go with electric bat speed and there is plenty of projection left in his thin 6'4" 180 lbs frame. You can easily imagine him growing into elite raw power without much squinting required.

So why is the game power so much worse than his raw power? Andruw Jones Jr. struggles to pull the ball in the air. This wasn’t meant to be a comp when I first mentioned him, and still is not one, but Michael Harris II amusingly has that exact same issue holding him back from fully manifesting his elite raw power in games.

Jones Jr.’s ability to hit the ball the other way with authority is borderline prodigious. He does lose something going the other way like 99% of players do but he still posts above-average exit velocities when hitting it the other way. Even still, it’s a really narrow road to being an impact power hitter without pulling the ball at all.

My understanding is that the issues with pullside contact are less due to timing and more due to how closed off his stance is but I’m not at all sure about that. The fact that the barrel enters the zone so early probably doesn’t help either because it turns what would be whiffs or foul balls for most hitters when he’s late on something into a ball to the other field.

That isn’t even necessarily a bad thing but if you are looking for nits to pick about Jones Jr. then here is one of the very few there are- he’s maybe trading contact quality for quantity. This is also generally speaking one of the easier power optimizations to make if the hitter is willing so it’s not really a long-term obstacle at his age.

The bat is obviously what is going to make Andruw Jones Jr. a star but what makes him the near consensus #1 talent in the draft class is that he pairs the plus bat with one of the best gloves in the class. He’s a no doubt centerfielder even as he bulks up and while he won’t ever be his father, he could still be amazing out there.

There are some scouts who want to see if Andruw Jones Jr. can handle shortstop and I don’t even think they’re wrong about him being able to handle it. Druw is an incredible athlete with a relentless work ethic and could absolutely learn to play an adequate shortstop.

But why would you ever want that? Putting Andruw Jr. at shortstop means waiting for the glove to develop and in order to do that, you have to move him much slower than the bat will dictate. You risk stalling his offensive development to take a gamble on him being a good enough shortstop to move him away from the premium position he already offers plus defense at. The reward is potentially massive sure but the risk is way too high for me to give it real consideration.

I’ll be perfectly content leaving Andruw Jones Jr. in centerfield where he projects as a plus defensive option. Jones Jr. has elite speed with a blazing 6.31 second 60 yard dash in the perfect game showcase. His shuttle times and 10 second splits were just as elite in showcases and really show how multi-dimensional his speed is. He has an explosive first step and covers a ton of ground in centerfield.

There is more to his defensive ability than just range, however. Druw Jones is an acrobat in centerfield who makes spectacular plays on the regular. He’s not afraid to climb to wall and snag homeruns or lay out to make the diving catch. He plays with reckless abandon and it’s spectacular to watch.

He also pairs his elite defensive abilities with a 70 grade arm that baseball America coined as the best in the entire draft a few months ago and I’m inclined to agree (amongst outfielders). He’s not quite his father defensively but he’s probably the best defensive centerfielder in the draft and one of the best in the entire minors from the day he’s drafted. There is still some polishing but not a lot to be done defensively. The glove will always be ready for the next step in centerfield and the bat can solely determine his developmental pace.

This feels absurd to say about a prep player but there is a pretty high chance that Andruw Jones Jr. has five 55 grade or higher tools in his prime. There i an very easily foreseeable path to all of them individually reaching at least a 60. I could make a somewhat convincing argument that any any of them warrant a 70 grade on their own.

Players with this balance of tools don’t really exist. There is a multitude of optimization paths for Jones Jr. to reach his upside and that makes him safer than most prep bats- even the ones of comparable caliber.

Jones Jr. isn’t quite perfection incarnate but he’s a few adjustments to the game power away (And a track record of high level production) from quite possibly being perfect. If Elijah Green didn’t exist it would be easy to argue Jones Jr. has the highest ceiling in the draft but instead he has to only settle for a close second. He’s the top talent in the draft and all else being equal should hear his name called first on draft day.

2. CF Elijah Green, IMG Academy

If James Wood hadn’t turned into a god this year then there’s a good chance that Elijah Green would be considerably lower on this list. Fortunately for Green, Wood has been so successful after I was confident he wouldn’t be able to make enough contact to profile at all has forced a much-needed re-evaluation of how I scout the hit tools of prep players.

Elijah Green whiffs a lot. There is no questioning that fact. He struck out over 30% of the time in his tenure at IMG Academy and whiffed 39.2% of the time in the Hawkeye showcase games (68 pitch sample so grain of salt). The whiffs are concerning for sure but he cut his strikeout rate from 34.7% in 2021 to 20.4% this year. The why behind the strikeouts is what matters and it has me believing that Green won’t whiff that much more at higher levels.

Elijah Green’s whiff issues largely have to do with a lack of consistency. The bat path is compact and efficient. There isn’t such much excess movement in his swing when he is settled in. There’s no loud leg kick to tie up Green or throw off his timing. The whiffs are largely a result of his inability to consistently push off his backside, and an inconsistent stride length (Seemingly by accident) that throws off his timing. Finding consistent mechanics could go a long way for Elijah Green.

Green shows good spin recognition in my looks. He doesn’t expand the zone all that often and is very aggressive in pursuing strikes. He does struggles some with pitches that break away from him and will roll over on those. However, when they get left a little too far in, he takes them over the wall so it’s a risky business trying to bait him into swinging at pitches just off the plate. If they are too far off then he just won’t swing.

Elijah Green struggles some with the high fastball in my looks. He has a steep bat path geared towards hitting with power and more so, a steep bat angle that makes it hard to get the barrel up in the zone. The vulnerability to high fastballs is a bit scary but he murders everything down and if the high heat doesn’t have velocity, he can usually at least poke it the other way. There is some hit risk and the contact rates will likely always be below-average but they aren’t close to untenable.

The hit tool I even have graded as average because of how scrumptious I expect the BAcon to be. Elijah Green has elite barrel control. The majority of his contact is hit in the sweet spot where he does ridiculous damage given the titanic raw power. He avoids mishits and rarely will get jammed. Even when he is jammed, he often hits the ball hard enough to still steal some hits. Balls hit at 95+ have an average xBA of .500. Green is going to hit a lot of balls at 95+ and most of them will come at optimal angles because he has both the bat path and attack angles to do so. The BABIP skill is exceptional and will carry Green to a decent average even with a plethora of whiffs.

The power is the carrying tool here though for obvious reasons. The bat speed is exceptional and it’s not just explosive hands. His entire body is explosive and powerful. His lower half movements are largely simple but still incredibly efficient at transferring his weight and generating massive torque on every swing. The exit velocities are among the top in the entire draft- not just the prep ranks and he’s posted a 110 EV with wood bats in a very small sample size. The power is easily a 70 grade raw and he checks all the boxes you want out of a power hitter.

The game power is not at all far behind the raw punch. Elijah Green checks just about every box you want to see when it comes to impact power output in games. We’ve already established it’s 70 grade raw but it’s also plus feel to elevate. Green has a steep VBA that creates implicit loft in his swing and given him a cheat code when it comes to making aerial contact. He also has elite hitting posture and consistently positive attack angles that lead to lots of explicit loft coming from the swing as well. Green shows feel for pulling the majority of his aerial contact as well and that only makes him more enticing. He has both 70 raw power and 70 game power.

The athleticism makes me question if Elijah Green is actually a human. Green has 80 grade speed. His 6.16 seconds 60 yd dash is in the 99.8th percentile of prep outfielders and an easy 80 grade time. His 1.44 second 10 yard split was even better with him actually outdoing the 55m (60 yard) state champion and Perfect Game record holder in the 60 yard dash, Michael Gupton across the first 10 yards. Those initial 10 yards is probably the most important to baseball game speed and Green is the best of the best at that.

Elijah Green has explosiveness when he runs. That initial burst is incredible to say the least and it plays both in centerfield and on the basepaths. In centerfield that initial first step and quick get off that still leads into plus long speed gives him one of the best outfield jumps of any prospect in the draft or the minors. The routes could probably use some polishing and there is some maybe deserved questions about maintaining the 80 speed in a bigger bodied frame. Even still, he looks the part of a plus centerfielder because he covers so much ground with his speed.

Elijah Green also has a rocket arm that will make anyone hesitate to run against him. He has some of the best throw velocities in the prep ranks and has both carry and accuracy on his throws. When you pair the 80 speed and elite range with a cannon of an arm, you have an elite centerfield prospect.

Elijah Green comes with more risk than most players in the first round of the draft but I think it is fairly easy to overstate that risk. Striking out doesn’t mean Green is boom or bust. Even if the hit tool completely flops, and Green is running a 35%- or heck even a 40% strikeout rate; he can still be a valuable player. Look at what Tyler O’Neil did last year. Look at what Miguel Sanó does pretty much every year. Joey Gallo walks a ton but he’s a Role 60 player even with a zillion whiffs. Elijah Green has an advantage over those three too because he’s a plus centerfielder.

This isn’t a boom or bust profile. It is a boom or still useful profile. The tools are too loud to not play in some capacity. Elijah Green deserves serious consideration at #1 overall. Druw is better but if Green is even 500K cheaper, I probably take Green at #1 instead. Elijah has the highest ceiling in the class and the floor is higher than you think. The tools are off the charts and there is some substance here too.

3. SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater High School

There is a coherent argument that Jackson Holliday is the best player in the draft class. I’ve heard it’s the argument his agent is trying to make and as such is refusing a discount at #1 overall. I don’t think Holliday is quite the best player in the draft but he’s in the same tier as both Jones and Green.

The argument for Holliday over the other two boils down to two things. Holliday has less risk than Green and also plays shortstop. The upside is probably lower but the realistic expectation from the bat is every bit as loud and he’ll still be an impact play defensively. Jackson Holliday can do it all.

Some people seem to think Jackson Holliday will fill in and move off shortstop but I vehemently disagree. Holliday is an above-average shortstop in my opinion. He checks all the boxes and even if he loses his plus speed and is only an average runner- or heck even below-average; I still think he will be passable at shortstop because he checks so many boxes.

Jackson Holliday is a really awesome athlete. He might only be a 60 runner, but his agility is amazing. He ranked in the 92nd percentile of agility testing over the summer. He has great lateral movement with his lateral jumps ranking close to the 90th percentile as well off of both legs individually, and his broad jump is solid as well. The reaction times are elite as well. He’s going to move quickly with hop and mobility in both directions.

Jackson Holliday also has above arm strength and good accuracy. His hands are really good and he glides all over the infield making plays. The actions could use a bit of work and he’s not the smoothest at times, but given the natural mobility and the high work ethic along with the pedigree and bloodlines, I’m more than comfortable projecting on that.

On the off chance that Holliday does manage to bulk up so much that he is truly incapable of playing shortstop, then I have drastically undersold his power upside as Holliday’s primary concern as a power hitter is a lack of lower half strength. If he is slowing down because he’s added that much muscle, then he might be a 70 grade power hitter.

Jackson Holliday for most of 2021 looked like he had below-average raw power. The bat speed wasn’t there in testing and he wasn’t getting much separation when he swung. He only hit six home runs in high school play that year. He still had an excellent hit tool but he wasn’t consistently making an impact on contact.

However, late this summer, Jackson Holliday made one simple tweak to his swing and saw the power explode as a result. Holliday started to rock back into his back hip during the stride and it has greatly improved the consistency and impact of his weight transfer. The extra motion has also helped him delay torso rotation and has seen the amount of hip-torso separation and the rotational speed of swing improve exponentially in response.

In the video from this spring, Jackson Holliday has a louder leg kick with a more authoritative push-off that seemingly is another tweak geared towards hitting for more power. The bat speed now visually looks really strong and it already tested as above-average even before all these changes that are designed to get more power out of him. Holliday has a whippy barrel and hits the ball with authority to all fields.

The strength is present to muscle balls over the wall. He has quick hands and incredible core strength. He has powerful hips that rotate really well and impact the ball with potent force. The only concern physically is that Holliday doesn’t generate that much power from his legs. He gets enough power from the rest of his body that it’s still plus raw power even without much strength in his legs.

This is why the possibility of Jackson Holliday adding so much strength to his lower body that he can’t play shortstop is so exciting. The biggest concern for Holliday in the power department is that he doesn’t have lower half strength. Fix that and the world will tremble at the crack of his bat.

The game power isn’t quite up to snuff with the raw power because he does struggle some with pulling the ball but there is definite potential here. Jackson Holliday has above-average feel to elevate. He typically hits with a steeper VBA that gives him implicit loft and his attack angles are usually positive so he’s getting explicit loft as well. Holliday hit 17 homers in just 40 games this year and that was not really a fluke.

You would expect that with all the tweaks to Holliday’s swing to make him better optimized to hit for power, the hit tool would pay the price. You would be horribly wrong. Jackson Holliday hit .685 in his senior year and set the high school single-season record for hits. Not the school record or state record but the national record for hits in a season. The previous record holder was JT Realmuto who set it 12 years ago.

Jackson Holliday has some of the best contact rates in the draft this year. he struck out just 4.2% of the time at Stillwater as a senior against pretty stiff competition. If we would rather look a little farther back to the summer, Jackson Holliday had an 84% contact rate during the summer circuit (Sourced so this is all games, not just ones with statcast). That is among the best in the prep class.

Jackson Holliday has added some movement to his swing but at his core, it’s still pretty simple. The hands are short and direct to the ball. He enters the hitting zone early and lives in there for probably too long. He makes a lot of contact deep over the plate and has no issues with timing both fastballs and offspeed pitches. I have little doubt that Holliday will continue to run plus contact rates as he climbs the ladder.

Jackson Holliday has an advanced approach at the plate. He only ran a 15% chase rate this summer and was still fairly aggressive against pitches in the strike zone. He has no trouble whatsoever with laying off of breaking balls, although he does tend to watch the hangers in the zone as often as he does the ones below it. The approach is hard to project on prep bat but I’m pretty confident that Holliday will continue to make above-average swing decisions in the minors and eventually the majors as well.

Jackson Holliday can do it all. He should stick at shortstop in the major leagues while hitting for both average and power. Holliday might not have quite the same track record but I’m comfortable putting him on par with where I had Marcelo Mayer coming out of the draft. I’m expecting him to be a very tough sign away from Oklahoma State where his uncle is the head coach and his father is the hitting coach, but I do think he’s probably worth buying out of his commitment. Holliday has franchise-altering talent if he develops and you don’t get the chance to draft a player like this very often.

4. SP Dylan Lesko, Buford High School

Dylan Lesko was considered by most scouts to be the best prep pitcher this century before he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John Surgery in April. Now a number of publications irrationally don’t even have Dylan Lesko as the top prep in this year’s draft. I think they are all acting foolish.

Tommy John Surgery sucks but it’s not what it used to be. The majority of pitchers return to full strength after the operation. I’ve seen the success rate listed as high as 85% returning to what they once were but that’s hard to quantify and I’m a little skeptical that it’s quite that high. But even players like Luis Severino who missed nearly three entire seasons have come back and been largely the same player he was before injury.

More importantly, one third of MLB pitchers have had at least one Tommy John before. The fact that Lesko is having it now doesn’t mean much because the other arms you could draft instead, in a vacuum have a 33% chance of having Tommy John themselves. I might prefer healthy Brock Porter to injured Dylan Lesko (I don’t) but there’s still a pretty high chance that Porter needs Tommy John himself at some point. There’s not that risk for Lesko- at least not to the same level. Only 8.5% of the players who have a Tommy John, wind up needing a second one.

Tommy John is not enough to ignore that Lesko is by far the most talented pitcher in this draft and has some of the highest upside in all the minor leagues. The stuff is ridiculous and he pairs it with above-average command, a fluid delivery, on the mound athleticism, and a strong frame. Dylan Lesko has #1 starter upside and Tommy John Surgery doesn’t dampen the upside just slows his ascension.

The fastball is the best of any prep arm in this year’s draft by a fairly sizeable margin. The pitch might only top out at 97 MPH but his velocity is remarkably consistent with him sitting 94–96 MPH and that is still plus velocity. The pitch comes from a vertical slot with an average stride length that leaves Lesko with a 0.97 RelSide and a 5.90 RelHeight. That latter figure is almost exactly the MLB average release height.

The fastball can also do this (see image above). Oh, and this (see below).

That pitch movement is beyond ridiculous. He is averaging 21.9" IVB in games with hawkeye and topping out at 25.6" IVB. If we remove his one start in Coors field, Dylan Lesko is averaging 23.2" IVB which is even more unfathomable. There is no major league pitcher with this much vertical movement and the only minor league one with 21.9" IVB that I know of is Daniel Espino. To make things even crazier, he is averaging 10.2" of horizontal movement towards his armside.

Granted, there is an important caveat to his numbers. This is with the high school baseball. The high school baseball has higher seams than the MLB one and even the college one. The average pitcher gets ~2 inches more movement with the high school ball than they would with the MLB one. That leaves Dylan Lesko with 19.9" IVB and 8.2" HB. There is still no pitcher in the majors with as much vertical and horizontal movement.

Even amongst his fellow preps, there is no one in the same league as Lesko. Dylan Lesko threw eight pitches with six inches of drop or less. Every other prep arm to pitch in an MLB stadium; 170 pitchers in total, combined for just as many pitches (8) with six inches of drop or less. Lesko is in a league of his own. One of those pitches belongs to the #2 prep arm on my list. The rest belong to Xavier Cardenas III who I covered a few days ago in my “The Number Suck but…” blog.

The generational fastball movement profile paired with plus velocity makes this a 70 grade fastball even with a generic vertical release. Lesko’s fastball plays exceptionally well up and to the armside with his movement profile where he collects a lot of whiffs. He also gets chases to the armside due to coming from the medial release point that just makes him even more unhittable.

The changeup is probably better than the fastball which sounds impossible. There will always be some skepticism when it comes to a prep changeup but Lesko checks every box imagineable with both elite raw stuff and command. Risk is present sure but the upside is higher than quite possibly every minor league changeup- Grayson Rodriguez being his only competition.

The changeup sits at 82.8 MPH on average is thrown with an average spin rate of 1503 RPMs. The pitch has above-average vertical depth with 9.6" IVB on average. He also has plus tailing action with 16.2 inches of horizontal break on average.

Time to put those numbers into perspective. That 12.4 MPH gap in fastball and changeup velocity (Hawkeye games only) would have been the 7th highest gap from a starting pitcher during the 2021 season. That 700 RPM gap betwen the fastball and changeup would have been amongst the best in the league as well for a non-splitter.

The vertical movement might not look like all that but it is 13.6" more IVB on the fastball than the changeup. The average pitch has just 8.5" more IVB on their fastball compared to the changeup. It’s elite vertical depth relatively speaking. The horizontal movement also ranks in the 84th percentile of all MLB arms.

The changeup plays up above the natural movement too because of his arm slot. Dylan Lesko throws from a 0.97 RelSide which really lets the changeup play up. Changeups from a high slot typically get more chases to the armside because their shape isn’t quite so obvious out of the hand. Lesko has fantastic HAA- against batters of both handedness. It’s the somewhat rare changeup that completely dismembers both right handed and left handed hitters.

Lesko has elite feel and command over the pitch to both sides of the plate and the pitch is far more consistent than any prep changeup has a right to be. The execution is there and he checks every single box specs wise. This is truly an elite 70-grade pitch and it could allow him to rise through the minors fairly quickly once he returns to the mound.

The curveball also earns an above-average grade from me. The pitch is somewhat lacking in power but 77–80 MPH from a prep arm is plenty fine and he maintains the armspeed on it so it’s not that obvious. The pitch isn’t going to ever have elite power but it has enough to work.

Dylan Lesko has elite feel for spinning the baseball. He averages 2800 RPMs with his curveball and although it’s inefficient spin in most areas, it does hint at the upside that his curveball has. The pitch averages just -5.6 IVB right now with 9.2 inches of sweep but the long term appeal is much higher.

Clayton Kershaw has made an ~74 MPH curveball dominate his entire career despite only decent movement. The reason for that is because his spin axis on the fastball and curveball are almost perfect reflection of each other with the exact same spin efficiency. Trevor Bauer did the same thing for a year. There is a 99% chance that Dylan Lesko never maximizes his spin efficiency on the curveball but he does have a perfectly mirrored spin axis with his curveball just 3° off from being a perfection reflection of the fastball. There is value in that even without the spin efficiency.

Dylan Lesko on top of having three major league quality pitches also has above-average command projection. Lesko has never really struggled with walks in his time as a prep and rarely leaves pitches over the heart of the plate. He has a smooth delivery that he repeats well with optimal timing. The athleticism is exceptional and he can pitch deep into games. Other than the Tommy John, there are very few red flags health wise.

Dylan Lesko is the complete package. The injury sucks but the stuff is among the best of any non-MLB pitcher in the country. He offers two genuinely elite pitches in the fastball and changeup with a third above-average upside one in the curveball. He’s still the best prep arm I’ve ever scouted, even with him needing Tommy John. There are only two minor league arms with better pure stuff (Grayson and Espino). I don’t think he’s likely to go in the top ten picks now but he still should. I might have had him ranked at #1 overall before Tommy John, that’s how much I believe in the stuff.

55 FVs

5. 3B Cam Collier, Chipola College

Cam Collier is someone who my ranking of has varied a lot throughout the draft season. I didn’t particularly like him at first, and then I talked myself into a late first round grade. I soon knocked him back down out of the first round when I went back and looked at the production of most JUCO bats to go in round one and saw how Collier underperformed relatively. Then I got Collier trackman data and realized he was arguably the most talented hitter in the draft.

Cam Collier has the best on-base profile in the entire draft. The contact rates were not there on the summer circuit for preps during a very small sample which is largely why I had him ranked so low initially. The contact skills were exceptional with Chipola this year though and they have been really good on the Cape this year as well.

Cam Collier whiffed just 15.8% at Chipola as a 17 year old. That number sounds great but is it actually? Maybe his league was just very whiff adverse. I wondered that at first so I checked and found the league average whiff rate of every player who played a single game in Chipola. The league average hitter had a 29.2% whiff rate. Collier is whiffing almost half as often as the league average player. If we only look at in-zone whiffs then he is at 10.9% compared to the league average 19% whiff rate in the strike zone. Need I remind you that Cam Collier is just 17 years old?

The contact skills are exceptional in terms of results but Collier also has all the visual cues that you look for in good contact hitters. The bath is unquestionably fantastic. Collier is quick to the baseball without excess noise in his swing and he keeps the bat head flat. The bat path is very much geared towards contact with a flatter swing plane but he still produces some power due to steeper attack angles.

Cam Collier has good timing throughout the swing and can make adjustments in both his stride and bat angle to consistently make contact regardless of pitch type or location. The lower half movements are fluid and although he gets disconnected at times, that is more of a power problem than a hit tool one. He has made a lot of contact despite being so much younger than his opponents and he will continue to do so moving forward.

The approach is also exceptional. Cam Collier makes incredible swing decisions- not just for his age but in general. Collier has a 24.3% chase rate in a league where the average player chases 31.9% of the time. He is 17. Collier also has a 73.2% Zone-Swing% when the average player is at 62.4%. He is still 17. Cam Collier has the best plate discipline in his league and he’s the youngest player in the league by two years.

Collier does have a slight chase issue against breaking balls (31.4%) but don’t mistake that for anything but a minor issue as he’s still barely chasing relative to his 74.5% zone-swing rate against breaking balls. He also only whiffs on 21.8% of breaking balls he swings at. Collier has the bat speed to hit velocity and the swing plane that makes it easy to dream of him developing the ability to hit high heat with authority. Collier has very few weaknesses in the on-base profile.

Collier also has shown some of the best plate discipline on the Cape where his peers are some of the best college hitters in the country and at least three years his senior with most being closer to five. Cam Collier has an elite on-base profile with a combination of high contact rates and elite plate discipline.

Cam Collier has not produced like your typical JUCO bat that goes in the first round though. Tim Anderson hit just under .500 and led his league in OPS. Harper had a 1.5 OPS and was inarguably the best player in a JUCO at any age. Spangenberg even hit .477. Collier is hitting a mere .333/.419/.537 which is good to be clear but he is only 39th in his league in slugging and is 65th in OBP. It’s not just a bad ballpark or something because three of his teammates have an OPS over 1.000. Is Collier overhyped?

The answer is no because it’s important to understand why Collier is struggling relatively. Cam Collier is producing a lot of mishits. He has a 17.3% popup rate and 40% of his contact is hit below 80 MPH. The problem is a lack of consistent barrel accuracy.

Most of the time when a player is too old for the level, they will dominate through one key skill- barrel accuracy. They will hit lots of line drives and make consistent hard contact. The won’t popup because they are too good for the pitching they are facing. Collier is the inverse. He’s too young for the level so he is struggling with barrel accuracy.

I don’t really expect Cam Collier’s barrel accuracy woes to last. He’s already shown the ability to put the bat on the ball and the next step in his evolution should be specifying which part of the bat he is hitting with. The swing decisions and swing mechanics are too good to doubt that Collier will develop barrel accuracy.

Cam Collier has actually already shown elite barrel accuracy too. At the MLB Draft Combine, Collier hit the most batted balls in the sweet-spot of any player in the entire draft with 11. He did damage on contact consistently back when he was still just your average run-of-the-mill high schooler and he posts good attack angles out of game time situations. I think the abundance of mishits is solely a mirage based on him being pushed so aggressively and the BAcons will settle into an above-average skill if given time to acclimate.

Cam Collier has plus raw power as well and maybe a bit more. If you look at Cam Collier relative to other college bats then a 107.2 MPH Max EV and 103.6 MPH top 8th EV do not look like much. Except Cam Collier is only 17 years old. Relative to prep bats those numbers are utterly insane. Even amongst the good prep hitters, a good chunk of them don’t even max out at 103.6 MPH. Collier’s 107.2 MPH EV comes with a wood bat by the way. It’s incredible raw juice for his age and even just in general. The bat speed is exceptional. He’s twitchy with explosive hand speed and a lightning-quick barrel. He has a very strong lower half and a swing that gets to most of the strength in that lower half when things are clicking.

There are times that Collier gets ahead of himself and will let his hands fly too early- particularly against pitches away from him and as a result will generate very little power from his lower body. There are also some times when his weight transfer isn’t totally efficiency and the power will leak out the backside. The lack of barrel accuracy hurts the present-day power output but the upside here is a 65. Cam Collier as advanced as he is, is not yet perfect. There are some questions with the game power that he still has to answer.

Cam Collier will almost certainly play third base in the majors. He’s not spectacular there by any means but he has solid mobility and a howitzer of an arm. There are some scouts who think he might move to first base for some reason but it would take a lot of extra muscle to force him off of third. He has clean hands, a rocket arm, and decent range. That will absolutely play even if it’s not exciting.

Cam Collier is one of the most exciting and arguably the best bat in the entire draft. He is more advanced than any 17 year old should be allowed to be and could reach the majors by 2025. He offers an elite blend of contact, power, and approach. There is probably a limit to the upside because he won’t provide that much defensive value but an elite hitter is an elite hitter wherever you play them and he won’t be a negative either.

Collier should get consideration at #1 overall. I wouldn’t take him over the four names I have above him but he stands out in his own way and will probably be cheaper than the Jones/Green/Holliday trio so if the Orioles want to splurge later, he could be their target.

6. SS/3B Brooks Lee, Cal Poly

Brooks Lee was my top player in the draft this year entering this season. He only got better as he improved his K%, BB%, and hit for more game power this year. However, Lee fell down my board some as players around him rose and I took a deeper look at what really makes Brooks Lee tick.

The glove is very fringy at shortstop and I, like most people, think he is better suited for third base long term. That doesn’t mean he’s not at least passable at shortstop though- he might play at a Xander Bogaerts level defensively at the most premium of positions.

Brooks is not a great athlete. His foot speed is well below-average and he’s exactly light on his feet. He has limited range. He does do a good job making plays to his glove side though and has decent enough mobility. The actions are mostly fluid and he has enough arm for the left side of the infield.

The arm strength is a plus with excellent arm utility. He can uncork throws across the diamond with strong velocities and solid accuracy. Brooks can make throws from multiple arm angles and does so regularly. This is often to his detriment as he tends to drift into a less power and less accurate side arm slot when he really doesn't need to. This causes his arm to play down a bit to only a 55 grade. Lee is probably only average defensively at the hot corner but there is some defensive upside here.

The bat is obviously the calling card though. Brooks Lee has the best hit tool in the entire draft. His contact rates are exemplary albeit against weak competition. Brooks Lee is running an 89.8% in-zone contact rate this year after running an 89.6% clip last year. He is striking out less than 10% this year as well.

Brooks Lee had a chase problem this year but then he just decided to have elite swing decisions instead. He cut his chase rate from 30.1% down to just 22.3% this year. He swung slightly less at pitches in the strike zone with his zone-swing dropping by 4.3%. He still had a 75% Z-Swing even after the reduction from last year. Lee is extremely aggressive at pursuing strikes and also doesn’t chase often anymore. That is a scary combination of skills. Especially when they make as much in-zone contact as Brooks Lee does.

Brooks Lee has plus BABIP skills to go along with the electric contact hitting profile. Brooks Lee shows an exceptional feel for the barrel and probably as a result, Lee had 95th percentile line drive rates in 2021. He also had plus line drive rates on the cape. The popup rates are somewhat high at ~8% but he’s consistently squaring balls up and hitting them with authority so you can live with the mishits.

Brooks Lee has an average exit velocity of 90.2 MPH and a 45% Hard-Hit rate during his time at Cal Poly. His Max EV might only be 109.4 MPH but he has a Top 8th EV of 107 MPH which places in the 92nd percentile of all college hitters this year. He hits the ball with authority and 75% of his contact comes in the sweet spot. That leads to some ridiculous wOBAcons from Brooks Lee.

The plus raw power plays in games for the most part. Lee has above-average feel to elevate despite a flatter bat path due to his approach. Lee has a very early point of contact and then gets underneath pitches that lead to him putting the ball in the air at a high rate and hitting it with authority. His flatter bat path gives Brooks very strong spin traits on his batted balls and enables him to get extra carry on his batted balls.

The hard-hit rates are there and he elevates. There is some power risk if the barrel accuracy regresses at all but it should still be above-average game power pairs with the best hit tool in the college crop. Oh, and he has a great approach now. Lee is far from a defensive stalwart up the middle but he does provide some value defensively and hits. I have him just outside the top five on my board but I could totally get behind drafting him in the top three- or even #1 depending on price, who the team is, and what their plan is for developing Lee.

7. C Daniel Susac, Arizona

Daniel Susac has his issues but in terms of pure data, he is better than last year’s #1 overall pick, Henry Davis. Susac offers both exceptional contact quality and exceptional contact rates as a catcher with good defense behind the plate. That is one hell of a foundation and you can figure out the rest later.

Daniel Susac chases 47.5% of pitches out of the strike zone in games with Trackman. You probably don’t need me to tell you how horrible it is. He’s only swinging at 73.2% of strikes to balance it out. The plate discipline is genuinely putrid, to say the least. I’ve heard the chase rates are only ~34% without trackman but that is still not anything close to good.

Except, here is the thing. Daniel Susac hits out-of-zone pitches better than anyone else in the draft or anyone in the minors, heck even better than 99.9% of big leaguers- it’s Rafael Devers esque. On pitches out of the strike zone, Susac has a 37.8% Hard-Hit Rate and a 54.1% Sweet-Spot. The average batted ball out of the zone has a 3621 RPMs spin rate and 53.1% of his batted balls are hit with backspin. All of those numbers except for the hard-hit rate are better than his in-zone numbers.

There are mishits obviously, with a 35.1% softly-hit rate; and he does whiff more but a 68.1% out of zone contact% is still not that bad overall; and is absurd for it being on out of zone pitches. I am by no means saying Susac chasing so much is a good thing, but I am saying that Susac chasing so much is maybe not the colossal problem we make it out to be.

Daniel Susac for all of his plate discipline woes is still an elite contact hitter. He has an 83.2% contact rate even with all the chases which are in the 79th percentile of college hitters. He also has some of the best in-zone contact rates in all of college baseball with a whopping 94.7% contact rate against pitches in the strike zone. That is exceptional stuff- it doesn’t translate this way but still, it’s higher than every major leaguer with at least 50 PAs this year. Using a standardized zone, the zone-contact rate is in the 95th percentile of college hitters.

Daniel Susac has a breaking ball problem- at least in theory. Daniel Susac chases 54.5% of breaking balls out of the strike zone. That is a terrifyingly high chase rate. Except, Susac as we established completely obliterates out of the zone pitches, and his overall whiff rate against breaking balls, as such, is only 33.3%.

Do you know who else whiffed 34% of the time against breaking balls? #1 overall pick and best draft prospect in at least five years, Adley Rutschman. The narrative is that Susac can’t hit breaking balls because he can’t stop chasing them but it’s not the reality. There is more risk in Susac’s breaking ball skills because he chases and they will only get nastier as he climbs the ladder, but this isn’t the kryptonite that some people seem to think it is.

Daniel Susac on top of making a lot of contact, also has exceptional contact quality. I’m not talking about power even if Susac has that too. Susac hits the ball at optimal angles to produce high BABIPs. The Sweet-Spot rate, that is the percentage of his batted balls hit with a launch angle between 8° and 32° is in the 93rd percentile of all draft prospects. His line drive rate is slightly better at 30.6% and in the 94th percentile.

Daniel Susac also has a popup rate that is in the 90th percentile at just 2.8%. He has elite launch angle tightness as well with a 22° sdLA which is in the 95th percentile of all college hitters. His tendency to expand the zone does lead to some softly hit batted balls but he is still in the 79th percentile for soft-contact rate. Daniel Susac consistently hits the ball at optimal angles for producing high BAcons. As a bonus, he shows an advanced feel for hitting groundballs to the opposite field.

The power might be even more impressive- the raw power at least. Daniel Susac has a Max EV of 112.9 MPH that came on a line drive with a 20° launch angle. That would rank in the 89th percentile of major league hitters this year for a Max EV. Daniel Susac also has a top 8th EV of 108.4 MPH this year. That ranks in the 96th percentile of college hitters this year. His hard contact is pretty consistent too with an 89th percentile hard-hit rate.

The problem is that Daniel Susac is pretty strictly a line-drive hitter. Only 20% of his batted balls are outfield flyballs. That ranks in the 18th percentile for a college bat. He still hits the ball stupid hard but it only results in an 8.3% barrel rate. That is still an 80th percentile barrel rate but it’s not as good as we know he could produce. That barrel rate also plays down because Susac pulls flyballs at a below-average rate and has a slightly below-average batted ball spin profile.

There is absolutely elite game power upside here but it’s only projecting as an above-average tool long-term. It’s not that I don’t think Susac can learn to elevate, it’s simply that I don’t want Susac to learn to elevate. Daniel Susac’s batted ball profile isn’t perfect as is but it is really good.

Due to his lower attack angles, Daniel Susac has almost no mishits and hits a lot of line drives. You might get more homers out of putting the ball in the air more. However, there is a very high likelihood that in doing so, you completely wreck that elite BAcon skill. I would rather stick with what we know is so effective until we find out if a change is mandatory. I don’t think one will be.

Daniel Susac’s bat is why he is a first-round prospect but the glove is more than adequate behind the plate as well. The framing maybe leaves a bit to be desired but Manfred has recently revealed the plan is for Robo-umps in 2024 and Susac will almost certainly not be up before then. The rest of his defense is quite strong. He is decently mobile and can block most pitches. He fields well and as a result ranked in the 87th percentile for catcher DRS in 2022. He was even better in 2021 when he placed in the 99th percentile.

The arm is more average than you would like but is still sufficient to catch. Susac caught 27% of baserunners this year and ranks right around league average in throw velocity. His pop times can be a bit slow at times but he makes up for it with very crisp arm accuracy. Susac isn’t a glamorous backstop but you can put him behind the dish and not have to worry about a thing. I also think he might be best off at third base or the like to let the bat cook without any added pressure but I’m just weird.

Daniel Susac offers a combination of contact skills and raw power that no one else in the entire draft can measure up to. There is absolutely risk given then complete lack of anything resembling typically coherent swing decisions but that risk might be overstated given the damage he does on “bad pitches.” Susac can play catcher and has immense offensive upside. That is a profile I will gamble on every day of the week. Susac is a top ten talent easily and him falling out of the top ten would be a critical mistake for every team who passed on him.

8. CF Drew Gilbert, Tennessee

Drew Gilbert is perhaps the single most enjoyable player in the entire draft. The energy he brings is just different. He plays with swag and flare in all of his actions. He has a tendency to rise to the big moment and hates losing more than anything else in the world. He’s not only a ton of fun but he is one of the best prospects in the entire draft with a lot more upside than anyone will credit him for.

Drew Gilbert’s least impressive skill often seems to headline his scouting report. I am of course talking about his above-average defense in centerfield. He has easy plus speed and uses it incredibly well with explosive jumps that allow him to cover more ground than most centerfielders with his speed would. Gilbert has crisp routes out there as well. He lays out to make highlight-reel plays and he can climb the fences to bring back home runs. I think the range is somewhat limited by only plus speed so it’s only a 55 glove but he’s closer to a plus than he is an average grade.

Drew Gilbert also has effortless plus arm strength. Gilbert consistently threw in the low nineties as a reliever in prior years and that arm strength plays in a big way in the outfield. He has pristine arm strength and accuracy. His mechanics are probably a bit long but he can make plays with his arm. Outfield arm is more bonus than anything for a centerfielder with his ability but Gilbert does collect his $200 for passing go.

On to the fun stuff, Drew Gilbert has one of the highest upside bats in the entire draft. The contact skills are top notch. In games with pitch tracking (Most have Trackman but there is one two-game set in Minute Maid with Hawkeye) Drew Gilbert is running an 80.7% contact rate. That is above-average contact skills.

That is also horrifically underselling Drew Gilbert. Gilbert has just a 7.3% in-zone whiff rate. That would be in the 99th percentile of major leaguers. It doesn’t really work that way but it still ranks near the top of this year’s draft and Gilbert is doing this against SEC pitching. Using the standardized zone- a terrible method given that Gilbert is only 5'9", he is in the 87th percentile of college bats in in-zone whiff rate. Gilbert is short to the ball with a compact swing and it clearly works.

Drew Gilbert has zero problems with hitting velocity. He actually whiffs more against fastballs below 93 MPH than he does against ones above that threshold. He also has very little problem with hitting breaking balls as he whiffs just 27.2% of the time against them. Changeups? Try a 16.7% whiff rate. High fastballs? Maybe a bit of an issue but only a 13.1% Swinging-Strike rate which is nothing insurmountable.

Drew Gilbert also makes above-average swing decisions. His in-zone swing rate is well above the collegiate average at 70.5% and he pairs that with a chase rate that is also well below-average at 23.2% (He’s actually at ~18% in non-Trackman games apparently). He has a chase rate between 22.2% and 28% against every pitch type. The only pitch he swings at less than 66.7% of the time in the strike zone is the curveball.

Admittedly, a 28.6% zone swing at the curveball is kind of ugly. Especially, given the fact that he chases 28% of curveballs. There might be an issue brewing in that regard. But also, Drew Gilbert still only has a 21.9% CSW% against the curveball because he only 21.9% of them in the zone this year. I’m not going to read too much into such a small sample.

On top of his above-average defense, plus arm, above-average contact rates, and above-average approach; Drew Gilbert also has really strong BAcon skills. His launch angles are very tightly clustered with a sdLA of 24.3°. That is in the 99th percentile of college hitters. He has an 83rd percentile sweet-spot%. The popup rate is just 4.7%. Actually, forget about that last one. His popup rate is in the 22nd percentile across the full season per FaBIO which is not great obviously.

Drew Gilbert also showcases some of the best raw power in the draft. He might only be 5'9" but he packs a serious punch. He has hit a ball 115.1 MPH before. That was in Minute Maid Park with Hawkeye so you know the tracking is almost certainly accurate. I’ll even include a link. A 115.1 Max EV already ranks in the 97th percentile of major leaguers. His Top 8th EV of 108.4 MPH backs up that assessment as he ranks in the 96th percentile of college players in that regard.

Drew Gilbert has a higher Hard-Hit rate than all but one player with 50+ BBE in front of trackman this year at 60%. He has a higher average exit velocity than all of them at 95.3 MPH. His soft-hit rate is lower than any other player in the country with 50+ BBE at 11.6%. Hitting the ball hard this often and avoiding so many mishits is going to lead to plus BABIP skills at bear minimum.

Drew Gilbert has a special combination of hit/power

You are probably wondering how Drew Gilbert is not the #1 player on my board by this point. Every tool is at least above-average and he has 70 grade raw power. What is there not to like? The answer to that question has layers. Drew Gilbert does not have that much in-game power.

The raw power is titanic but Drew Gilbert hits 48.8% of his batted balls on the ground. That is a lot of groundballs and hurts the power. But surely not that much? Can he really be only hitting 11 home runs in a full season with some of the best raw power in the draft? I mean the answer is yes. Spoilers but Spencer Jones has more raw power and has a lower HR/AB%.

But also, the quality of Drew Gilbert’s hard contact is not consistent. Flyballs at 95 MPH rarely make their way into the bleachers and a large portion of Gilbert’s hard-hit flyballs are of the softer hit variety. Drew Gilbert has electric bat speed and that is a huge difference maker but it’s not all that determines power. The swing mechanics matter too.

Drew Gilbert struggles with his weight transfer. He often will get too far into his backside. This is especially true when Drew Gilbert is trying to put the ball in the air. When he steepens his VBA he does so by rocking back and anchoring his back hip. His Max EV on flyballs is just 107 MPH. Gilbert has power no doubt but that power only really performs when he isn’t trying to force elevation and can consistently keep his swing in its natural form.

Gilbert is only a 55 game power hitter despite 70 raw because I don’t think he’s best when trying to be a homerun hitter. He can hit groundballs and be a wOBAcon menace without hitting long balls.

I love dudes who make consistent flush contact and Gilbert is technically one. He reaps all the theoretical benefits of flush contact with 99th percentile spin rates and 92nd percentile backspin%. He just also is worse because of it as trying to force being flush kills the power and that matters more than spin.

Tinkering with Drew Gilbert to try to get to the power feels like an obvious pitfall. He is what he is, and I think trying to change that is going to blow up in your face. Maybe someone smarter than me sees a way to create elevation while maintaining a more efficient weight transfer but I don’t see it and that is why he is only ranked here on my board.

Ultimately, I think even though Drew Gilbert might not ever wind up tapping into his 70 grade raw power, he is still one of the best players in the draft. He offers above-average or better tools across the board and has a track record of performance. He’s gotten some makeup comps to Jarred Kelenic and scouts question if he can handle struggling on a mental level but Kelenic’s issues go a lot deeper than his head and it’s unfair to paint them with the same brush. Drew Gilbert is his own player and that player is an exceptional one.

9. RF/CF Chase DeLauter, James Madison

Chase DeLauter was getting attention as a real candidate to go #1 overall before the season started. He hit .437/.576/.828 with a 213 wRC+- the highest wRC+ by any D1 hitter with 100+ PA this year. For 24 games he was literally the best hitter in the country before he broke his foot and inexplicably has been plummeting down draft boards as a result. This is a broken foot, not a torn ACL or torn labrum. Letting him fall so much because of a relatively small injury will be a mistake.

The swing certainly looks unconventional. He employs a scissor kick which is a move very few major leaguers have in their swings. He also tends to drag his back foot forward before contact. He flies open a bit early but he’s still keeping his hips locked in a hinge even as he opens up so I don’t really think it’s a problematic move even if an unconventional one.

The hit tool is good. Chase DeLauter made contact on 78.7% of swings this year. 11 of his whiffs came in the first three games of the year. If you remove those his whiff rate drops to an estimated ~17%. He was at an 85% contact rate in 2021. He struck out more this year at 17.8% but was at 13.9% last year.

James Madison is in in the Colonial Athletic Association which is far from stiff competition so there is some reasonable doubt over the contact profile translating. Or there would be if Chase DeLauter didn’t strikeout just 12.3% of the time during his 146 Plate Appearances in the Cape Cod League.

Chase DeLauter’s parents might have given him the most inaccurate name ever. Chase literally never chases. He has just a ~15% chase rate this year and one of the highest Z-Swing rates in the country at ~77%. That plate discipline seemingly continued to play in the Cape where he still walked more than he struck out. DeLauter makes elite swing decisions and it allows the hit tool to really perform. The on-base profile is exceptional from DeLauter.

Chase DeLauter has a ridiculous wOBAcon profile. In 2021, Chase DeLauter ranked in the 95th percentile for groundball rate, 88th percentile for popup rate, and 95th percentile for line drive rate. It should go without saying that those numbers are truly exceptional. DeLauter also hits the ball hard.

I can’t actually say precisely how hard DeLauter hits the ball given the small sample size of data with trackman but I will say it’s hard. DeLauter has topped out at 107.8 MPH in a very small sample size with trackman data. I realize that’s not a lot but it’s like 15 career BBE with Trackman so it’s not really that representative of who DeLauter is.

Chase DeLauter has produced elite in-game numbers though with a career .313 ISO in three years at James Madison. He also led the Cape Cod League in ISO with a minimum of 50 PA (Chase had 146) at .290. He is producing elite power with both wood and aluminum and that has to mean something more than he is just putting the ball in the air at a very high rate.

Chase DeLauter from a visual standpoint looks like he can produce big time power numbers. The bat speed is electric. He’s got a very strong lower half and an effective hip hinge that really locks him in. Things might look a little funky but he is generating massive torque and really throwing his whole weight at the ball. DeLauter also has a steeper VBA with a lofty bat path and steeper attack angles to boot. He’s going to frequently hit the ball in the air and do so with authority.

Chase DeLauter has sneaky athleticism. During James Madison’s pro day, DeLauter ran a 6.4 second 60 yd dash. That is a 70 grade run time. I’ve clocked him with plus run times on home to first runs on multiple occasions. Maybe he loses a step given how big he is but there are plenty of big players who are fast in the majors and scouts discounted the athleticism of for no reason (See Rodríguez, Julio) so I don’t really think that’s a lock.

The arm strength is a plus. He sits at 92 MPH off the mound but it plays down in the field due to some issues with his arm stroke. There is absolutely enough arm for right field but with plus speed he has a chance to theoretically stick in centerfield. I don’t love the jumps hence why it’s probably right field but he has the athleticism to theoretically be a fit there.

There is 60/60/60 bat upside here. I think the hit tool will wind up a bit below that and there is some risk but the offensive upside is incredible. DeLauter also plays a quality right field with a non-zero chance of sticking in centerfield. The tools are exceptional and the production is even more so. DeLauter is an easy top ten talent in the draft for me and if he falls as far as he is being rumored to, someone will be getting a massive steal when they take him in the back half of the first round.

10. RF/CF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech.

Gavin Cross is fascinating. He was a fairly one dimensional albeit elite wOBAcon monster in 2021. Then in 2022 he started running plus contact rates but both the power and BABIP profile fell off in turn. Cross has flashed both elite contact and wOBAcon skills but never both at once. Is it possible to meld the two? That is the question any drafting team must ask themselves.

Gavin Cross had a Max EV of 114.2 MPH in 2021. This year he peaked at only 111.6 MPH. That would be a concerning dropoff but honestly, I think I’m overselling the power decline if anything. Gavin Cross still had a 109.3 MPH top 8th EV which ranks in the 98th percentile of college hitters. His hard-hit rate decreased from the 98th percentile where he was at last year but he’s still in the 87th percentile.

No, the real concerning drop is that his barrel rate is down from 8% to 5.2%. Gavin Cross. This is hard to pinpoint the exact cause of though. We’ve established that Cross hasn’t really lost power. He’s hitting 4% fewer balls in the air but how much does that matter? Except not all aerial contact is created equally. Gavin saw his popup rate literally double this year.

His flyballs have in general become less impactful because he is getting too much under them and too far on top of his groundballs. Gavin Cross also saw his sdLA literally go from 86th percentile in 2021 all the way down to the 8th percentile this year. That is an extreme deviation in the profile. sdLA means more for the BABIP skills than the power output but it does affect some power output too.

As I’ve already touched on, the BABIP skills have collapsed completely. Cross is mishitting the ball a lot more now. We can turn to film to find the reason pretty easily. It appears like Gavin Cross has flattened out his VBA to remove the crippling weakness he had against the high fastball and particularly the hard fastball. I think this change is probably for the better but it’s not the slam dunk it feels like just looking at the surface level stats.

Gavin Cross is now one of the better hitters in the draft against the elevated fastball. He’s running just a 7.7% Swinging-Strike rate against fastballs in the top half. He also has gone from whiffing 52.2% of the time against fastballs at 93+ to whiffing just 20.8% of the time. Given how omnipresent high-velocity fastballs are in the majors, as well as elevated fastballs; this was a much-needed change for his college production to actually translate to major league production.

The contact rates as a whole are up from 75.8% to 80.9% but the fastball is the root cause for most of the improvements he’s made. The gains against secondary stuff are much more nominal. He has cut his whiff rate down from 35.9% to 29.8% this year against breaking balls. He’s gotten better across the board at the expense of some contact quality but the fastball is the key issue.

The swing decisions are above-average as well. Gavin Cross chased just 23.2% of the time this year- down 7% from 2021. He also swung at 73.2% of pitches in the strike zone this year. He is only whiffing 9.8% of the time in the strike zone and has managed to post solid contact rates out of the zone as well, but he does have a bit of a chase issue against secondary stuff that needs to be worked on.

Gavin Cross is a bit of a fringier fit in centerfield but I actually kind of like his chances of sticking. Cross is only an above-average runner but he has good jumps and covers a surprising amount of ground. His hands are clean and he can lay out for one. I don’t think Cross is a fantastic centerfielder by any means but I am comfortable playing there.

His best fit though is probably right field though where he profiles as above-average. Gavin Cross has easy plus arm strength with good carry on his throws. He’s on line more often than not and his mechanics aren’t too long or anything. He will create outs with his arm regardless of which outfield spot he winds up in. The defensive profile isn’t sexy but he will almost certainly provide some value of some sort.

The Gavin Cross we saw in 2021 was probably a late first round pick. He was fairly one dimensional but it was some of the best wOBAcon skills in the entire draft and solid defense in centerfield. The Gavin Cross we saw this year probably belongs in the middle of the first round with the improved contact rates and approach.

It’s the possibility of Gavin Cross combining his strengths of the 2021 version with the 2022 version that has him just inside the top ten on my board. If we had seen Cross maintain the wOBAcon skills this year while making the same gains he did; Cross would probably be in the conversation to go #1 overall. The upside here is immense and the floor has been raised significantly this year. I don’t think he’ll move that quickly through the minors but he has a chance to make a loud impact and is unlikely to not at least be a useful fringe-everyday player.

11. 2B/3B Jace Jung, Texas Tech.

Jace Jung falls in a similar bucket as Termarr Johnson. He’s an amazing hitter with very limited defensive value. He’s fairly closer to the majors and was one of the most productive players in college baseball across the last three years hitting .328/.468/.647.

However, Jace Jung really struggled to end the year as he hit just .214/.343/.339 in the final 30 days of his collegiate career. The why behind those struggles according to trackman appears to be that he started getting too far beneath pitches. The contact rates and swing decisions only showed moderate dips. It’s probably unfair to ding him for one bad stretch but every cold stretch means a lot for a bat only profile without eye-popping tools.

The contact rates are typically fairly average. Over the last two seasons, Jace Jung has made contact on 80.2% of swings (sourced so not just trackman). The swing decisions are the driving factor behind the contact rates though as his whiff rates in the zone are very average. Jung expands the zone just 14.9% of the time and still manages to swing at 68% of in-zone pitches. The contact skills are more average than anything but he makes great swing decisions so he should still keep the strikeouts in check.

The wOBAcon profile is interesting. Jace Jung has elite sweet-spot rates over the last two years even if they fell off some in the last month of the season. He was still at 48.3% this year which ranks in the 97th percentile of college bats. That is very good and given the power profile should lead to plus and bordering on elite BABIP skills.

He also hits a lot of mishits though so the BABIPs aren’t actually all that. The popup rate was in the 13th percentile in trackman games this year. Infield flyballs understate just how bad it is though. Jace Jung hits 30% of his batted balls with a launch angle above 50°.

The MLB average player has a wOBAcon of 0.017 on balls hit with a launch angle above 50°. The largest percentage of balls hit with what much arc in the majors this year is 21.3% by Austin Hedges. I’m not going to pretend I’m not at least a little worried about this flaw from Jace Jung.

Jace Jung also hits 20% of his batted balls with a launch angle below 0°. The average wOBAcon on those batted balls is .160. That is a lot more manageable than the previous number the two figures in tandem is still scary. For Jace Jung to have even an MLB average wOBAcon of .359 this year(Assuming he performs exactly to the MLB average on balls with a LA above 50° and LA below 0°); Jung would need to have a .644 wOBAcon or higher on balls hit with a launch angle between 1–49°. That would be in the 89th percentile of major leaguers. That is just for league average numbers on contact overall.

I actually think Jung is likely to meet that threshold. The average ball in the sweet-spot has a .679 wOBAcon and that makes up 90% of Jace Jung’s batted balls in this range. In addition, Jace Jung has power and hits the ball hard with regularity. Yet, this is only for average wOBAcons. Ideally, you should be aiming for a lot more than average wOBAcons from an early first round pick- especially one without elite contact skills or defensive value.

Jace Jung simply has to cut down on the mishits. Honestly, I have no clue how realistic of a goal that is. Most of the time when players are mishitting it has to do with poor swing decisions or poor barrel accuracy. Neither of those is remotely applicable to Jace Jung. Jung makes some of the best swing decisions in the draft. He shows barrel accuracy given his propensity for squaring up balls in the sweet spot. Without knowing the cause of the mishits it’s difficult to diagnose and fix the problem.

If I had to take a stab at it, I think it’s probably a struggle to get the barrel inside and hit the inside pitch with authority but that’s most just based on the eye test and I don’t really trust that assessment. I think it probably isn’t hopeless but it kind of scares me off having Jung at the top of my board as I did at the start of the draft cycle.

Jace Jung has at least above-average raw power. His max exit velocity is 112.5 MPH officially but given that the 112.5 reading came on a -49° launch angle, I’m more trusting of the 110.7 MPH max on aerial contact. Jung does still have a 90th percentile top 8th EV at 106.6 MPH. His hard-hit rate is also in the 94th percentile. The dude can swing it with power.

The feel to elevate is elite- probably not a good thing overall, given how many of his flyballs are auto outs but it is elite. Regardless, it does help the game power. Jace Jung has a 17.5% barrel rate which is in the 98th percentile of college players. Jace Jung should hit dingers even with all the mishits. I think the power will fade some as he climbs the ladder but it should still at worst be above-average.

Jace Jung is a fringy defensive option regardless of where you put him. He’s spent time all over the infield and I’ve heard some people talk about him as a left fielder. I like him best at the keystone but I still think he’s a below-average defender there. It’s average arm strength with not great range or athleticism. With the shift possibly being banned in the future, the defensive value is probably even more questionable. You aren’t buying Jung for the glove but for the bat and the bat alone.

For all the concerns I have about Jung’s profile, I do still absolutely buy in on the bat. Jung has the ability to get on base at a high clip and hit the ball with authority. If you figure out how to eliminate some of the mishits and automatic outs than this is one of the best hitters in the game. Even if you can’t figure that out, he should still be a pretty good hitter. I have mixed feelings about Jung for sure, but in general, I think he’s a very good hitter. The upside is limited by the defense and the floor isn’t astronomical by any means but he still offers a solid combination of floor and upside.

12. C/LF/1B Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech.

I’m not a big believer in Kevin Parada’s ability to stick behind the plate which is why he is ranked so low comparatively to other draft rankings out there. I also am a big believer in the bat so he still scraps a 55 FV regardless of the defensive woes.

Kevin Parada is one of the worst defensive options behind the plate in all of college baseball. He was in the 26th percentile in catcher DRS this year. He allowed 9 passed balls in only 59 games this year and caught just 23% of attempted baserunners. Parada has solid mobility but he kind of just misses on some pitches when he swipes at them. There is some defensive upside- especially with electronic strike zones but anyone expecting more than passable is a fool.

Kevin Parada does not have the strongest of arms behind the plate. He has just an 8th percentile average throw velocity but it does play above that due to quick transfers and how quick he gets out of the crouch. As such, his pop times are on average only in the 48th percentile of college backstops. Interestingly, the arm strength looked a lot better on his 90th percentile throws where he ranked in the middle of the pack in throw velocity. The arm is playable behind the dish but it’s below-average. The only defensive value Parada really provides as a catcher is the ability to squat for an entire game. (Also I’ve heard some good things about the game calling).

Kevin Parada is an exceptional hitter who checks the vast majority of boxes. His contact rates are above-average. He whiffs just 17.6% of the time overall and 12% of the time in the strike zone. The ability to hit secondary stuff is particularly impressive with Parada whiffing just 24.1% of the time against non-fastballs.

Kevin Parada does have a bit of an issue with high velocity fastballs up in the zone though. This appears to be due to his longer hand load. He has shown the ability to hit sinkers down and softer fastballs up but when you pair them he’s overmatched.

Carter Kieboom had a similar flaw and never fixed it. That doesn’t mean Parada can’t fix it, to my amateur eyes, it actually looks like a pretty simple fix but it does introduce risk. Still, the ability to hit non-fastballs is top-notch and he has the present twitch and speed to hit velocity with one (maybe) simple adjustment.

Kevin Parada does have a tendency to get jammed inside by the fastball. He has an average exit velocity of just 84.4 MPH (37 BBE) on pitches on the inner third and he’s popping up just under 20% of the time on pitches in that area. He hasn’t got issues connecting with the inside pitch but he does struggle to consistently bring the barrel in. This isn’t to say he lacks the ability to do so though, Parada has a 110.1 MPH EV on a pitch over the inner third so he clearly can do it- just not consistently.

The primary draw of Kevin Parada is unquestionably the plus game power. Parada actually has just a 43rd percentile groundball rate. A large part of his appeal though is that he has an above-average pull rate on his aerial contact which does make a difference. But even still, his pulled outfield flyball rate is only in the 58th percentile.

So why is the game power so good? Parada has elite raw power and that makes all the difference in the world. Kevin Parada’s Max EV is an admittedly non-elite 110.6 MPH but he has a much better 107.7 MPH Top 8th EV which ranks in the 94th percentile.

He also has a 98th percentile hard-hit rate. Because most of his hard-contact is scalded, and at optimal flight paths; Kevin Parada has a 96th percentile barrel rate of 15.4% despite below-average feel to elevate. There is present day game power in the profile because he consistently scorches the ball with a very rotational swing.

The swing decisions have also matured into above-average this year. In trackman games, Parada is running just a 23.1% Chase rate. As you would maybe expect, fastballs are his worst chase pitch with a 27.9% chase rate against them. He chases just 20.5% of the time against secondary stuff.

If Parada can learn to lay off the fastball up and in then he could be a truly elite player. It’s very rare that anyone can be as disciplined as Parada against secondary stuff. Parada also swings 71.5% of in-zone pitches. The swing decisions are fantastic aside from a few hiccups.

Kevin Parada isn’t a perfect player and I think the profile is a bit one-dimensional, but the offensive upside is truly immense. Kevin Parada has a chance to hit for both average and power at a high level while also working his fair share of walks. There might be some kinks to work out but I am more than happy to gamble on the sheer upside of the bat in top half of round one. If a team thinks they can teach him to catch, then he could and probably should go in the top five.

13. SP Cooper Hjerpe, Oregon State

Cooper Hjerpe looks nothing like your conventional front of the rotation starter but he was exactly that for Oregon State this year. Not only only was he the Beavers Ace, but Hjerpe was also the best pitcher in the entire country. Of all qualified D1 pitchers (1 IP/Team Game), Hjerpe was first in WAR, K%, and FIP.

Cooper Hjerpe has a weird fastball but I do think it’s an above-average pitch despite its unorthodox nature. Actually, not despite of- because of the unorthodox nature of it. The fastball comes from the most unique release point of any starting pitcher in baseball. He throws from what is on average a 4.43' release height and a -3.55' horizontal release point.

There is no starter in the majors with a release even close to Hjerpe’s. The release height is the lowest of any major league starting pitcher. There are only two starting pitchers with a sub-five foot release height. Those two are both Giants in Logan Webb and Alex Wood. Both of them are at 4.9 ft. Hjerpe is a half-foot lower than the two of them. The widest horizontal release is 3.31 ft from Max Scherzer. Hjerpe is still significantly wider. The angle is a complete unicorn from a starting pitcher.

It is totally logical to question if Hjerpe can stick as a starting pitcher as a result. I’m pretty confident Hjerpe will stick though. Hjerpe throws three high quality pitches and has very strong weapons to beat batters of both handednesses. Hjerpe has a well rounded batted ball profile without obvious defects and is able to beat hitters in a multitude of ways. He has command and stuff in tandem.

More importantly, unlike most players with this low of an arm slot, Hjerpe is pitching deep into games and maintaining his stuff in the process. Hjerpe averaged 97 pitches per start and had just as much velocity in the last inning as the first. The only reason to doubt that Hjerpe is a starter is because no one has ever done it looking like this. That argument falls flat though because no reliever from a comparable slot has ever had three pitches this good or the same command as Hjerpe; yet alone both simultaneously.

The fastball only sits at 91 MPH and tops out at just 95 MPH with Trackman. That is perfectly acceptable velocity but I’m also not ruling out Hjerpe adding more strength to his 6'3" frame with how athletic he is. The fastball plays up too because Hjerpe gets plus extension (6.8 ft) on all of his pitches. I also am obligated to note that he was hitting 98 MPH according to scouts during the preseason. I tend to assume that was just a hit gun but it might not have been.

The pitch movement is solid with 12 IVB and 14.5 HB but the movement is largely irrelevant. The release angle is what makes him so unhittable. The fastball even with an average pitch height of just 2.4 ft in trackman games still has -4.35° VAA. When he elevates the fastball for whiffs he is at ~-3.6° (Pitches at 2.8 ft ~MLB average 4SFB height). When he pitches down he gets groundballs and called strikes at a ridiculous clip.

It is very hard for Hjerpe to lose with his fastball. This pitch is one of the most dominant pitches in all of college baseball with multi-situational utility and elite bat missing shape. The pitch has a 30.4% whiff rate (Full-season not just trackman) while he throws it in the strike zone 58.7% of the time. (These numbers are from like Mid-May so might be slightly off now)

Cooper knows how to use the heater with command all over the strike zone and he gets weak contact. There might not be impact velocity here but Hjerpe still easily earns himself a plus grade because of how tough it is to hit at the angles he gets. The fastball is the foundation of a deep and highly effective arsenal.

The slider is absolutely nasty. He only sits at 76.8 MPH which would be the second slowest slider by a major league starting pitcher this year behind only Rich Hill (Tied with Dallas Keuchel). That is a red flag but Hjerpe also has more movement than just about any slider in baseball.

Cooper Hjerpe averages -3.2 IVB on his slider. That is 96th percentile vertical movement on a slider. He also averages 15.5 inches of sweeping action on the slider. That is in the 92nd percentile of slider sweep. Only Sonny Gray, John King, and Aaron Bummer average as much movement on both planes.

The slider is even better than the movement though because Hjerpe throws his slider from such a wide release point. The slider has a -5.2 HAA despite an average pitch location of -0.09 ft. That means his average slider is going to the same side of the plate as his arm is coming from. He’s neutering his HAA and still ranks in the 95th percentile of HAA.

For the sake of simplicity, let’s pretend Hjerpe’s average slider location is 0.00 and undersell him a bit. Jhonathan Diaz has the steepest zone-neutral HAA in the entire league at 3.8°. Hjerpe’s zone neutral HAA is at the very least at -5.2°. Cooper Hjerpe has a generational slider angle and it’s why his whiff rate is over 50% despite lacking in velocity. I think he’ll drop off a tiny bit in pro ball against better hitters but the slider should always miss bats with his angle.

Did I mention how exceptional Hjerpe’s slider command is? Cooper Hjerpe throws his slider in the zone a little over 50% of the time. He can backdoor his slider for called strikes against right handed hitters or get chases off the plate against lefties.

Remember, how I was talking about how the average Hjerpe slider goes to the arm side? That is why. He has an average slider location of +0.58 against left handed hitters. When he is throwing to lefties and actually pitching to the glove side he has a -6.5° HAA; that is of course, the steepest angle in the majors. Hjerpe’s ability to command the slider and alter it’s function in each matchup makes him impossible to beat. This is the second above-average pitch in Cooper’s arsenal.

The changeup is arguably Hjerpe’s best pitch which sounds silly given the quality of his other two pitches. The changeup is thrown nearly 13 MPH slower than the fastball with Hjerpe sitting at 78.4 MPH on average. He throws the changeup with almost the exact same spin rates as the hybrid fastball. The changeup is thrown on a 9:00 spin axis.

The resulting pitch has 1.3 IVB and 16.3 inches of tailing action. The changeup has five inches more drop than the average changeup at his velocity. That is 94th percentile vertical drop. He also has 80th percentile horizontal movement. The only changeups with more movement on both planes belong to Cristopher Sánchez, Decin Williams, Joe Mantiply, and Dylan Floro. None of them have anywhere near the elite velocity separation that Hjerpe offers on top of the movement.

Cooper Hjerpe’s wide horizontal release might undermine the changeup movement though. I worry that the changeup will lack deception because he throws from so wide that arm side movement should be able to be picked up on. The pitch plays fantastically off the fastball in the zone but probably won’t be a big chase pitch despite the ridiculous movement profile. That is probably still going to result in an above-average changeup given that Hjerpe throws his in the zone at a well above-average rate.

I say this but I’m not actually confident it’s true even if it’s theoretically how the changeup interaction should work. Joe Mantiply throws his changeup with a very comparable shape and a 3 ft RelSide. He throws the changeup slightly harder and has a slightly less extreme release but it’s the closest comp you will find.

Joe Mantiply’s changeup has the highest chase rate of any changeup in baseball. It is very likely I’m overselling the concern with the changeup angle, given that Hjerpe has a 56% whiff rate against it. I have the changeup graded as above-average and as his “worst” pitch but it’s still a really good one with obvious plus upside.

I don’t know if you’ve realized it yet but Cooper Hjerpe has good command. I’m a coward who is still slightly scared off by the delivery so it’s only graded as above-average but you could easily push it higher. Cooper Hjerpe threw 55.4% of pitches in the strike zone this year. No major league starter fills the zone that often. That isn’t really a good thing and you probably want him to expand the zone for more chases in the future but Hjerpe is capable of throwing strikes at will.

Cooper Hjerpe also shows the feel to throw to both sides of the plate and pitch both up and down with the fastball. He lands all three of his pitches for strikes at an above-average rate. He gets chases when he does expand the zone and gets whiffs when he stays inside of it. He can backdoor his slider or pitch off the plate. It looks weird and the delivery doesn’t feel like it should result in good command but it inarguably has done exactly that.

Cooper Hjerpe has one of the strongest batted ball profiles in the draft. His angle makes him impossible to square up and he avoids the heart of the plate despite profiling as a zone filler. As such, he allows almost no line drives. The fastball gets popups when he elevates it and he gets groundballs when he works down in the zone. This is a well-balanced and consistently plus batted ball profile.

I find it very difficult not to question if I am ranking Hjerpe too low because of pre-conceived opinions and biases on what a starting pitcher looks like. We haven’t seen Hjerpe throw a full workload and there is a theoretical risk that the chases stop coming against higher-level competition. Hjerpe also has a perfectly clean bill of health and gets a lot of in-zone whiffs- especially relative to how often he is in the zone. Cooper Hjerpe has ace-level upside and it looks weird but I don’t really consider the relief risk all that high.

50 FVs

14. 2B Termarr Johnson, Mays High School

I have very mixed feelings about Termarr Johnson. I have him ranked a tad bit lower than the consensus but I really want to make it abundantly clear that I do not in any way dislike Termarr Johnson. The primary reason he’s ranked so low is that I think he is only an average second baseman. I think the bat is great but I don’t think it’s generational like some people seem to think it is.

The hit tool is very obviously the carrying tool for Termarr Johnson. People slap the best prep hitter in years moniker on him but I disagree. Termarr Johnson actually had fairly mediocre contact rates during the summer circuit (sourced). He only made contact 78% of the time. His 19% chase rate is good but for all that Termarr’s hit tool is supposed to be generational, he both whiffed and chased more against top competition than Holliday did.

Termarr Johnson will make his money because of how good his hands are. It’s a plus BABIP profile to go along with what still projects as plus contact rates. Termarr possesses an elite feel for squaring balls up and hitting them at optimal angles to do damage. He makes adjustments mid-at-bat to the shape of his swing and will rarely be beaten twice. He shows both the ability to hit velocity and pick up on pitches with spin. The bat path is clean and efficient, the setup is quiet and effective, and the timing is typically on point. Despite, the whiff issues last summer, I do still think Termarr has the second-best hit tool in the draft behind only Brooks Lee.

The power I’m a bit more skeptical of and that has nothing to do with Termarr only 5'9". His hand speed is probably the best in the draft class with him averaging 2800°/second. His hands explode through the zone and it leads to plus bat speed that borders on elite despite the smaller frame. The problem is his power is entirely dependent on his hand speed. The lower half offers very little in the way of explosive movements. In fact, Termarr Johnson had a 1st percentile counter movement jump last summer and opted out of testing in it at the combine. He only tested slightly better in the broad jump. I still think there is above-average raw power and in the right organization, you can probably add strength to the lower body and push that to a plus but it’s by no means a lock. Termarr should be getting to all of that power in games too.

Ultimately, I think Termarr Johnson is going to be one of the best hitters in the draft. I just don’t think he is that much significantly better offensively than most of the names in front of them- if he is at all. I think the lack of defensive value probably means more to me than getting the slightly better bat.

Termarr’s profile is not 100% safe, there is certainly risk that he winds up a one tool player and the brief whiff issues don’t even make that tool 100% safe. I don’t think he will be he could. I view Termarr very comparatively to Brooks Lee in profile/value but Lee gets the edge due to proximity and track record. Termarr is still really good and absolutely should go in the top half of round one. If the Orioles take Termarr #1 for under the slot then I won’t hate it at all.

15. SS Zach Neto, Campbell

Zach Neto is third in all of college baseball in wOBA over the last two seasons and the two players in front of him are both first basemen. Neto plays a passable shortstop. The tools aren’t the loudest but Neto is a do it all producer with both a big bat and defensive value. He has lots of baseball skills and he plays the most premium of positions.

Zach Neto has plus contact rates. He is making contact on 83.8% of swings this year and is at 82.1% over the last two years combined. The swing decisions are above-average as well. Neto is chasing just 22.5% of the time across the last two seasons and is swinging at 74.4% of strikes.

Zach Neto has no difficulties with hitting both breaking pitches and high velocity. He demolishes the high fastball and pitches with above-average vertical movement as well. He has some issue with timing offspeed stuff in the zone but given that he doesn’t chase all that often, I’m not too concerned. Neto lacks exposure against top-tier arms at Campbell but he’s hit the good pitching he’s seen and dominated on the Cape.

Zach Neto also has very good batted ball data independent of power. Neto hits outfield flyballs at a 92nd percentile rate. Unlike with a Jace Jung, Neto is hitting only 8.4% of them with a launch angle above 50°. His flyballs are at angles where they can do damage. Neto unlike most high OFFB% guys actually doesn’t popout much at all. He is running just a 4.2% popup rate which is in the 80th percentile of college hitters. He also has a 78th percentile sweet-spot% and a 94th percentile sdLA.

What really brings the profile together though is the fact that Neto hits with backspin. Zach Neto regularly makes flush contact and as a result, gets 92nd percentile spin rates on his batted balls. He also hits 54.4% of his batted balls with backspin which is in the 85th percentile. To top it off, Zach Neto pulls 36.2% of his flyballs.

So in conclusion, Zach Neto has some of the highest flyball rates in the country, the spin profile that gives him more carry on his batted balls than most, and he pulls his flyballs at an elite rate so it takes less work for them to wind up over the fence. Is it any surprise Zach Neto hit 15 home runs this year and finished second in the Cape Cod League in ISO last year?

Zach Neto only has average raw power. His Max EV is just 108.2 MPH and his top 8th EV of 104.9 is only in the 80th percentile of college bats (MLB average is 105.7 MPH (LIE THIS IS 92ND EV- not comparable to MLB)). Zach Neto still has a 94th barrel rate despite only average raw power because of how much aerial contact he is hitting. He still outperforms even that in the slugging department because of the spin and sprays. Neto only has average raw power and it is all he needs to beat the shit out of baseballs.

Zach Neto’s swing is a bit unconventional. He has a flamboyant leg kick with a lot of bat waggle. He aggressively throws himself out of the ball and looks a bit wild at times. Whatever he’s doing clearly works though and there are no red flags in the statistical profile. Zach Neto does it all at a solid level and feels very likely to contribute at the big league level even given the smaller school and unorthodox swing risk. If there is one player on this list so far who I am probably too low on, it’s Zach Neto. I don’t see the All-Star upside I usually covet but I think he’s very likely to be a good everyday shortstop.

16. SP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s High School

Brock Porter has electric stuff. He’s a tier behind Lesko in both stuff and command but the upside here is massive. He should go early in round one for a lot of money and he’ll be worth every cent.

The fastball is an electric pitch. The fastball sits 94–96 MPH and has allegedly been up to 100 MPH according to some reports but given how he’s only hit in once to my knowledge, I’m assuming the gun was hot. Regardless, it’s plus fastball velocity. It’s also plus feel for spin as he sits at 2447 RPMs on average. The pitch has above-average extension at 6.5 ft on average and a vertical slot with a 5.78 RelHeight and a -0.84 RelSide.

The movement profile is the calling card here though. Brock Porter averages 19.5 IVB in games with Trackman from last summer. You have to adjust for the difference in seam height with the high school ball so it’s only actually like ~17.5 IVB but that is still great vertical movement from a prep. The pitch also gets 10.8 inches of tailing action but again, adjust for seam height. Still good movement but not generationally so.

The problem with Brock Porter’s fastball is consistency. He sits at just 10.9 inches of drop on average but will flash as little as six inches. He will also throw fastballs with as much as 16 inches of drop. This does not appear to be deliberate as the two pitches have almost identical spin-based 1:00 spin axis. Brock Porter has inconsistent spin efficiency. You can argue his fastball has more upside than Lesko’s given the superior feel for spin and slightly lower release/better extension but the optimization is not quite as good. I have the two pitches graded as equal but I personally prefer the one that could dominant in the big leagues today (Lesko).

The changeup is Porter’s best secondary pitch. He throws the pitch at 75–78 MPH and kills nearly 1000 RPMs sitting at just 1525 RPMs on average. The changeup has 8 IVB and 14.8 HB on average. On paper, that sounds like an elite pitch- especially coming from such a medial release but I have some concerns. To be frank, I think the velocity separation is too much. He throws the changeup 17.8 MPH harder on average. There is no changeup in the majors with a velocity separation that large and the only one close is Spencer Howard. There is a reason for that.

Brock Porter throws his changeup too slow to actually tunnel with the fastball at all. The arm speed is solid so it works for now, but I’m very skeptical that better hitters won’t see the changeup floating in on them that obviously isn’t a fastball and resist the urge to swing out of the zone. Spencer Howard had great changeup movement but was too slow to play in the majors as well. This is a pitch that will dominate the minors and stumble some against major league hitters. I still have Porter with a plus changeup because he has an elite feel for pronation but I think this pitch needs a lot of work still.

Brock Porter has a somewhat solid curveball. He sits 77–79 MPH with fairly average spin rates at ~2200. The pitch has average vertical depth with -9 IVB and some sweep with 13.3 inches on average. The pitch probably needs more power but it’s still a solid average pitch. He’s added a slider this spring as well in the 82–85 MPH range. It seemingly has heavy gyro spin with almost slutterish shape and it looks good on film. I don’t have the data on it but I like what I’ve seen enough to at least grade it as an average offering.

The control has some question marks. Brock Porter has a longer arm action that can throw his timing off. There is some twist and recoil as well that might cause command issues. I still believe in the control being at least average because Porter is a great on-the-mound athlete with a high makeup, and a willingness to make adjustments but it’s not a sure thing by any means.

Brock Porter has front-of-the-rotation upside. The fastball should be lethal and with some work, you can develop a potentially elite changeup too. He has enough feel for a breaking ball and some very desirable physical traits. Brock Porter is the complete package and he has been healthy. There is work to do and he’s far from safe but he’s a very talented arm with exceptional building blocks to develop an ace out of.

17. SS Jett Williams, Rockwell-Heath High School

Jett Williams has some of the best tools in the entire draft but is still trying to figure out how they all meld together. That includes the hit tool. In fact, Jett Williams's best tool right now might be the hit tool.

Jett Williams is currently using a swing that is purely optimized for hitting for contact. He has a very short and efficient bat bath with no excess movements and without some of the necessary ones as well. He has no problems hitting much of anything as is in my looks but I want to see him trade contact in for more power.

Jett Williams has elite bat speed- as in it might be the best in the entire draft. Jett Williams topped out at 89 MPH on a swing on a 4/27/21 according to Perfect Game. He was only second to Druw Jones in Impact Momentum at 33.4 so it’s likely he was using a somewhat lighter bat but it’s ridiculous bat speed. Jett Williams also has an above-average broad jump so there appears to be some good explosion in the lower half as well. Or at least the potential for it.

The problem is that Jett Williams is too short to the baseball. His hands start at chest level and they barely move before he attacks the ball. He’s not building up any bat speed in games because he’s too direct to ramp up the bat speed with continuous motion. Jett lacks physicality given that he’s 5'8" so he’ll probably never be an elite power threat but he should hit for some power and there is absolutely at minimum plus raw power in his tank. It might take some work to get to the aforementioned power but Jett Williams absolutely has the capacity to do so.

Jett Williams is an exceptional athlete. He runs a 6.47 second 60 yard dash and his acceleration is present as well. Jett has plus run times in the shuttle run and above-average hops off both legs. He is a small dude without a lot of projection so it’s hard to foresee him losing that plus athleticism.

His athleticism really plays at shortstop. Jett Williams has fantastic range and solid infield actions. The arm strength I somewhat controversially have as above-average. He has health with some shoulder troubles that had the arm strength down significantly in some well-scouted events. Outside of that isolated sample, Jett throws with carry and velocity from across the diamond. He has top-end velocities in a showcase environment too. I think he has both the arms and actions to play a quality shortstop at the major league level.

The risk of Jett Williams is the likelihood that the ability to hit for contact and power are forever bound together. Jett has such a fantastic hit tool because he doesn’t try to hit for any power. If you change that the hit tool might drop off some. I think the power is worth attempting to unlock but there is risk in that. Jett Williams has five tool superstar upside but he’s more likely to profile somewhat one-dimensionally at shortstop with flashes of brilliance. I would still draft that player in the first round for the upside he offers.

18. CF/RF/1B Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt

Flashback to three years ago when I had Spencer Jones as the #10 player in the entire draft. Just ignore everything else I said about him or why he was ranked so high. Spencer Jones is very much power over hit despite what my past self might have tried to foolishly peddle.

Spencer Jones has the best raw power in the history of college baseball. He hit the hardest batted ball in the history of college baseball this year on a line drive single into right field. The pitch had a 6° launch angle and a 119.1 MPH EV. Spencer Jones has the highest Top 8th EV in the draft at 112.1 MPH. Not only is that the highest Top 8th EV in the entire draft, but it would also currently (7/4) be second to only Giancarlo Stanton in the majors this year. If you were wondering, Giancarlo Stanton is at 115.4 MPH so he is still a light-year in front of Jones.

Tieran from the future here: I thought 92nd percentile EV was what Top 8th EV meant but it’s actually top 1/8th EV. Jones is only at 111.6 MPH which is tied with Ivan Melendez for second behind Griffin Doesching. It’s also still higher than every major leaguer except Giancarlo Stanton as of 7/4/22. Vlad Jr. is second in the majors at 111.5 MPH.

Spencer Jones has titanic raw power but he is still figuring out the game-power optimization. FaBIO has Spencer Jones with just a 7th percentile outfield flyball rate. That is not a lot of flyballs. Do we care though? I’m not convinced it matters all that much. Spencer Jones has enough power that even with no flyballs, Jones is still running a 93rd percentile barrel rate. Elevating would help but he doesn’t need to do that much elevating to hit for premium in-game power numbers.

Spencer Jones also might be made worse by elevating more. Spencer Jones currently has one of the best batted ball profiles in the country for BABIP optimization. His popup rate is in the 92nd percentile. His line drive rate is in the 95th percentile. He has the best raw power in the country. He hits the ball on the ground regularly but he’s mostly hitting high groundballs.

Spencer Jones had a .468 BABIP in 2022 and that wasn’t really a fluke. It obviously won’t translate to the next level quite so high but Jones has genuinely .360+ BABIP upside as is. The one tweak I would make to the power profile is to focus more on pulling the ball as right now his well below-average pull rates dampen his homer output considerably.

There is also the fact that more elevation puts the already fringy contact rates in jeopardy. Spencer Jones has a very flat swing path right now. The swing is artistry in action. The problem is it doesn’t actually play that way. Spencer Jones has timing issues and struggles to actually make contact consistently. The contact rate sits at 72% which is manageable but it is sub-optimal. If you add more elevation it might be even better game power, but the whiff rates could turn scary fast. He already has an issue with pitches up in the zone- one that would probably be magnified by changing the bat path to create more loft.

Spencer Jones has league-average whiff rates against breaking balls sitting at 35% on average while the average player whiffs 34.9% of the time. Spencer Jones obliterates in-zone fastballs and makes above-average swing decisions. He swings at 71.9% of in-zone pitches and chases just 26.6% of the time. More importantly, Jones knows his strengths and weaknesses. He swings at 49.3% of fastballs and just 40.2% of everything else. His chases rates are actually solid against everything but the changeup too.

I like the swing decisions and think the walk rates will only get better as he matures in his approach and confidence. Right now, Jones is swinging at 62% of pitches with two strikes and has a 35.1% chase rate in those spots. Jones has to learn to be patient and take pitches even when he is on the verge of getting out.

I’ve had Spencer Jones listed as a first baseman since he was in high school but then Spencer Jones went and tested off the charts at Loden Sports as he ranked in the top 1% of athletes across all sports. Spencer Jones actually has blazing speed and plus acceleration. His 30 yard dash at the draft combine was just 3.60 seconds which is among the best in the draft. He has above-average agility as well. He has plus arm strength as a former pitcher who used to throw 95 MPH off the mound.

He’s huge but why can’t he play centerfield? He didn’t at Vanderbilt because Enrique Bradfield Jr., is superhuman out there but Jones absolutely has the athleticism to do so. Aaron Judge has done it this year and Jones is the same caliber of an athlete with the same body type. I don’t think Jones will be elite in centerfield or anything but he can play there or be an elite option in right field.

Spencer Jones is an outlier. There is no first round college bat with more risk but there is also none with close to the same amount of upside. Jones has genuine MVP upside. He should be a wOBAcon monster regardless but the hit tool will determine his eventual role. If the contact rates are even above 60% then he probably will be an everyday player. If they are above 30% he’s an all-star and if they somehow are above-average then Jones might win an MVP. The very concept of a ceiling is not in the picture with Spencer Jones. I think there is some floor though because even with a 40% K%, the strong side of a platoon who is a quality outfielder with elite power has some value.

19. 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas

Ivan Melendez went in the 16th round to the Marlins last year but wisely declined to sign. How he got to the 16th round, I’m not entirely certain but he was right to rebuff all their offers. He went back to Texas in order to “improve his defense.” Not only did he do that, but he also orchestrated one of the greatest offensive seasons we have ever seen at the collegiate level. He won the Golden Spikes award in a season where he led all D1, D2, and D3 players in WAR and had the highest wRC+ of any player at a Power 5 school.

Ivan Melendez is often disrespected on draft rankings for three reasons, most of which are bullshit. The first is that Ivan Melendez doesn’t have the lengthy track record of hitting you prioritize in college players without defensive value. That concern is silly in my opinion. Ivan Melendez has two years of D1 play in his lifetime, and has the second highest wOBA in the country over that two year span. That’s largely driven by this year but a 1.041 OPS last year is nothing to sneeze at either. During his two year of JUCO play, Melendez hit .393/.477/.822. Clearly, there is not a track record here guys.

The second reason is his age. Ivan Melendez is a redshirt Junior who turned 22 in January. I won’t argue that he’s not older than his peers but does one year make that much of a difference? He’s not some 25 year old. He’s a 22 year old who was the best player in the country by a wide margin this year. When he was Jacob Berry’s age, he was in the 87th percentile of run production. Berry was in the 89th this year. The difference is negligible.

The third and only legitimate gripe is that Ivan Melendez provides very little defensive value. That comment usually comes from the same people who have Jacob Berry ranked in the top ten. Melendez doesn’t do much on defense, but he’s not a DH and he’s the best hitter in the entire draft. People also like to make out the fact that he is a right-handed hitting and throwing first baseman out as a death sentence which makes zero sense. Who cares what side he is hitting from if he mashes like this?

Ivan Melendez has 70 grade raw power. His maximum exit velocity is 115.2 MPH which is in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. His Top 8th EV of 111.8 MPH is in the 100th percentile of college bats and second to only Stanton among MLB ones. Metal bats inflate the quantity of top-end EVs, it won’t actually be second in the MLB but still. Ivan Melendez is also in the 100th percentile of average exit velocity and his average exit velocity is actually down this year.

Ivan Melendez also has a 98th percentile groundball rate this year in trackman games and as a whole, has hit just 29.4% of his batted balls on the ground since the start of 2021. When you combine the 100th percentile EVs with elite feel to elevate, you get the highest barrel rate in the country (Min 60 BBE) at 24.6%. He was second in the country in barrel rate in 2021 too. Melendez actually has even better game power than that though because he pulls his flyballs at an above-average rate as well and hits with elite spin traits.

Ivan Melendez is more than just one-dimensional power. He also has the best BAcon profile in this year’s draft aside from maybe Spencer Jones. Ivan Melendez has a 100th percentile sweet-spot rate and a 100th percentile sdLA this year. He is consistently hitting balls in the sweet spot and mostly avoiding mishits.

Ivan Melendez hits the ball as hard as anyone in the country and as a result, even on his rare batted balls at suboptimal angles, he often finds hits. The average hard-hit ball has a .500 average in the majors and Melendez hits the ball hard as often as anyone. Not to mention, Ivan Melendez has 88th percentile spin rates on batted balls and a 94th percentile rate of batted balls hit with backspin. He’s going to be a wOBAcon demon.

You are probably expecting me to douse you in iced water and proclaim that Ivan Melendez has major whiff concerns right now. I will not do that but instead, gleefully exclaim that Melendez has plus contact rates. Ivan Melendez made contact on 84.2% of his swings this year. That is in the 83rd percentile of college players. If we isolate that to only in-zone swings (Including non-trackman games) then Melendez is in the 78th percentile. He also makes 81st percentile swing decisions. That combination of contact and power skills has Melendez on an island. He is the circled red dot in the graph below.

Finding a weakness for Ivan Melendez is an exercise in futility. Ivan Melendez has a 5.8% whiff rate against fastballs at 93+. He has a sub 30% whiff rate against breaking balls. He whiffs just 15.2% of the time against the offspeed pitch. He has just an 8% swinging-strike rate against the four-seam fastball up in the strike zone.

Baseball America suggests that Ivan Melendez struggles with the inside pitch. That is only somewhat true and a temporary flaw if anything. Ivan Melendez averages just 83.9 MPH EV on pitches on the inner third of the plate (And off the plate but in). Except, it’s more complex than that one number. Ivan Melendez maybe has slightly less consistent power but he is still hitting 48% of batted balls in the sweet-spot so it’s not bad contact. He’s also running just a 4.6% swinging-strike rate on the inner third. Oh, and remember that he hits with less power thing? Yeah, Ivan Melendez’s hardest-hit ball ever at 115.2 MPH came on a pitch over the inner third.

Despite, the lack of flaws in the statistical profile, I do actually have some minor concerns with how the hit tool will translate. There is no statistical evidence to suggest it, but I do suspect that Melendez will run into some problems with actually good breaking balls.

I think Melendez is more of an average whiff guy than a plus contact one. I also think that is perfectly fine because I genuinely believe the wOBAcons will be off the charts. Ivan is worth a first round pick and possibly a higher one than this to me because he’s going to demolish baseballs and who cares about the rest when you do that. I asked one person in the industry who is not very high on Melendez what more Melendez would have had to show this year to get a first round grade. They didn’t have an answer for me. Yes, the track record is short but it’s not possible to do more in one year to improve your stock then Melendez did this year.

20. SP Cade Horton, Oklahoma

I went a lot more in-depth on Cade Horton in Tuesday’s blog so I’ll refrain from repeating myself too much. Cade Horton has a fastball that touches as high as 98 MPH and is sitting at about 95 MPH. He has some mechanical tweaks left that could unlock more velocity. The fastball has elite spin rates but poor spin efficiency so the movement profile is fairly bland. Very high release but there’s no reason to believe he can’t improve the efficiency and get to a plus pitch one day.

The new slider is a fairly unique pitch given that it sits at 88 MPH with ~1" IVB and about 5 inches of glove side movement. It’s basically the same movement profile and velocity as the Gerrit Cole slider from a much higher release point which makes it a very unique and very impossible to hit pitch. He has good command over the hard slider and it’s already a plus pitch with genuinely elite potential.

I would like Horton to re-add the old sweeping slider he used before developing the new one for the playoffs to give him some semblance of a third pitch. That slider had promising shape but was hurt by the lack of middle ground between the 94 MPH fastball and the 80 MPH slurve. He also would for whatever reason try to backdoor the slider every time.

Cade Horton throws strikes at a high rate with all three pitches. That being said, there are some injury question marks due to the late arm action and poor posture at foot strike. He’s already had Tommy John but I think you can reduce the future injury risk with some tweaks.

Cade Horton has maybe the highest stuff upside in the college and the command to truly be an Ace. He has to make some adjustments and there is some risk but I’m comfortable gambling on that upside in the top half of the first round. I don’t have him in the top ten but I’ll have no complaints if he goes that high for that level of bonus. The stuff is genuinely amazing with command as well! Seriously, go read Tuesday’s article when I went very in depth on him.

21. SP Owen Murphy, Riverside-Brooksfield High School

Owen Murphy had the most dominant season I have every seen from a high school player this year. He threw 51.1 innings and had just a 0.14 ERA. He walked just 4 hitters, allowed 10 hits, and struck out 137 batters. His K% was literally over 80% and his walk rate was just over 2%. Oh yeah, he also played played shortstop and posted a 1.947 OPS while walking 34 times compared to 6 strikeouts in 138 PA. This isn’t some sleazy 2A school, it’s a genuinely solid 5A program. In his conference, Owen Murphy has the highest OPS by 0.738 and the second-best ERA is over seven times as high as Murphy. He leads in strikeouts by 64. There is no one in the same realm of existence as Murphy.

Owen Murphy is a solid day two prospect as a shortstop. He has electric bat speed and projects for above-average power. The hit tool is solid and he’s a fine defensive shortstop. There is some intrigue in the idea of developing Murphy two-ways but I think he’s too good on the mound to take away from that at all and you can’t play a premium position and pitch without the fatigue killing you. Owen Murphy is interesting at shortstop but he is significantly better at pitcher so that’s all I am choosing to focus on.

Owen Murphy is not the hardest throwing prep arm as he only sits 90–92 MPH and tops out at 94 MPH but he’s still one of the best prep arms in the class. He’s undersized so maybe the projection is limited but the arm speed is certainly there and he’s an exceptional athlete with superb movements in his delivery.

Owen Murphy also doesn’t need to throw particularly hard for the fastball to miss bats. Owen Murphy is a bit short at only 6'0" and he creates a low release point with a deep hip hinge. As a result, he has only a 5.2 ft release height. The fastball has a naturally flat angle and Owen Murphy has average vertical movement; averaging 16.7 IVB on his fastball last summer with 8.1 inches of horizontal action. Murphy has flashed an improved feel for spin this spring and if he can improve the spin efficiency then the fastball could really take off- even more than it already has.

The cutter is his primary secondary pitch. It used to be more of a gyro slider in the low 80s but he’s added considerable power to it this year and is now more 87–88 MPH. The pitch plays beautifully off of the rising fastball with ~8.2" IVB and 3 inches of cut coming from the same tunnel. The pitch misses a lot of bats and projects as at least above-average.

The curveball has a very promising shape. He can really spin it- running the pitch up to 2600 RPMs and he has promising shape. The pitch has heavy spin and is moderately efficient with Murphy averaging -7.6 IVB and 14.6 HB last summer. The pitch is consistently thrown in and around the zone and overwhelms weaker hitters as a result. The pitch has a heavy sweeping shape and the command to profile as a bat misser. The pitch only sits at 75.1 MPH and needs more power to truly be dominant but given the shape and feel for the pitch, I’m still comfortable grading it as an above-average pitch.

The changeup feel is still a work in progress but I like it as well- even if slightly less than the other three pitches. He sits at ~82 MPH and kills a little over 500 RPMs off the fastball. The pitch doesn’t have the best vertical depth, averaging just 10.6 IVB but it has heavy tailing action with 17 HB on average. Murphy shows consistently great arm speed and has feel to pronate at a high level so I’m comfortable projecting an average grade on the still developing changeup.

Owen Murphy throws a lot of strikes. He walked just 2.3% of batters this final year in high school and has always had low walk rates. He has a smooth and incredibly efficient delivery. There is some effort because he rides low and plunges so deep but the delivery is repeated. He’s an exceptional on the mound athlete with mechanics and a history of strike-throwing. That screams above-average control to me.

Owen Murphy is a velocity jump away from greatness. All of his pitches already project fairly well but they just need a tick more to become truly dominant weapons. I think strength and velocity gains are both very possible and even very realistic. None of his pitches jump off the page as elite offerings but all of them have quality potential and the depth of the package could still allow Murphy to sit near the front of a rotation.

22. SS Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina

Eric Brown’s swing makes Wiggler’s look normal by comparison. He starts somewhat like Julio Franco with a much more narrow base. He has his bat pointed slightly towards the pitcher and cocked overhead. A guy like Kevin Youkilis uses that unorthodox technique to create extra whip when he flicks his wrists back and moves his hands down to swing normally from the weird setup. Brown does not do that. He instead moves his bat further in that direction as he rocks into his back hip and then throws his body forward as his hands kind of circle around. You know what, words literally can not describe this eldritch horror. Here’s a video instead.

Any scout with a working set of eyes would tell you that bat path is way too long and there is no chance he makes contact at a decent clip. Eric Brown isn’t ruled by the logic of mere mortals though, he is beyond human comprehension. Brown has a 99th percentile contact rate and is only whiffing 3% of the time in the zone. He has a 6% whiff rate against power five schools. His whiff rate is just 8.3% against pitches at 93+ and there is just a 2.9% Swinging-Strike rate against fastballs in the top half. Clearly, the length of the bat path has not crippled him.

I detest everything about Eric Brown’s approach on principle. Eric Brown’s approach is comparable to Max Muncy’s. He has some of the lowest chase rates in all of college baseball because he almost never swings. As a result, Brown takes a lot of strikes looking and is actually running a 10.6% strikeout rate in the Sunbelt despite the lack of whiffs. The lack of aggressiveness probably needs to change at least a little as better pitchers will throw more strikes but there is some value in the willingness to watch pitches, even with two strikes, until you see the perfect one.

Eric Brown has exceptional raw power. His Max EV is 113.7 MPH which ranks in the 93rd percentile of major league hitters. He is in the 94th percentile in both Top 8th EV and hard-hit rate. The problem is that isn’t actually homerun power. Eric Brown struggles with creating loft. His groundball rate is 45.4% with trackman. More importantly, he struggles to make hard contact in the air. His hardest-hit batted ball with a launch angle of at least 25° is 103.4 MPH (35 BBE with a LA that high). He has feel to hit hard line drives but he’s not a home run hitter because the top-end EVs aren’t there on aerial contact. Eric Brown also has BABIP questions. His popup rate is in the 19th percentile with trackman and he has below-average launch angle tightness. He also pulls a lot of groundballs and despite the elite hard-hit rates has a 49th percentile soft contact rate.

The skills are here to be a star but as currently built, there is too many poorly hit balls and too little well struck ones in the air to actually be that star. Maybe I am old school, but I can’t help but wonder if that is because of the swing path that makes it difficult to create loft without losing extension and that makes it hard for Brown to consistently square stuff up. I love the swing and selfishly don’t want it to change but it might have to. I would still take Eric Brown in the first round because the raw power/contact combo is unteachable and Brown plays a solid shortstop but it seems unlikely he actually fulfills the amazing upside he has.

23. 1B/3B/LF Jacob Berry, LSU

Jacob Berry is considered to be a top ten player in the draft by most publications and I’ll be honest and say I don’t really understand why. I can see some appeal but that appeal is largely dependent on him stopping the switch which seems like something I’m pretty sure most analysts won’t consider given that they think switch-hitting automatically makes you better. (Or at least it feels like they think that way sometimes).

Jacob Berry has plus contact rates. He made contact on 84.3% of swings this year with Trackman and including non-trackman games is at an 88.9% in-zone contact rate over the last two seasons. Those contact skills are particularly strong from the left handed side where Berry has a mere 5.9% in-zone whiff rate. Berry has hit both velocity and breaking pitchers without any significant troubles this year. It’s a safe and effective contact skill.

The concern is contact quality though. Jacob Berry had elite contact quality last year but this year he traded contact quality for contact quantity. His popup rate went from the 85th percentile to the bottom quartile and his hard-hit rate dropped by over 15% this year. The BABIPs fell off as did the game power, and as such, despite halving his strikeout rate, Berry saw his OPS fall in his first year at LSU.

Jacob Berry has plus raw power. He also has plus feel to elevate. Berry posted a 112.7 Max EV as a left-handed hitter in 2021. His hard-hit rates weren't there this season (In part because of injury) but the power potential is still there. At least as a left handed hitter that is. Hitting right handed, Jacob Berry has yet to post an exit velo over 103.5 MPH this year with just a 25% hard-hit rate in 36 BBE. He also makes contact 6% less as a righty. Please for the love of God, stop switch hitting.

Jacob Berry provides very little on defense. He technically plays third base right now but I’m pretty confident he won’t stick. Berry has subpar athleticism and only average arm strength with somewhat poor actions as well. Jacob Berry has to hit to be worth anything. I do think Berry is highly likely to be at least a league average bat. I also think he has a high ceiling at the plate with a potential plus hit and power combo. I just think Berry will probably have to ditch switch hitting in order to reach that offensive potential he has deep down inside.

24. SP Noah Schultz, Oswego East High School

I’ve heard that Noah Schultz isn’t actually signable but given that he hasn’t pulled his name from the draft yet, I am including him regardless. Noah Schultz has clear first round talent with a lethal two pitch combo in the fastball and slider with a solid enough changeup to round out the repertoire.

Let’s mix it up and start with what might be the best prep slider in the entire draft. The slider has silly movement. Over the summer Schultz averaged -0.1 IVB and 17.8 inches of sweep to his glove side. His spin rates sat near 3000 as well. The slider angle is a complicated issue. Noah Schultz throws from a very low arm slot that should give him elite HAAs with such a heavily sweeping breaking ball but it doesn’t because of his mound positioning. He hugs the right handed side of the rubber and as such, Schultz only has a 2.14 RelSide. This helps the sinker probably but hurts the slider somewhat. The slider has added significant power this spring, seemingly without losing the impact shape, and now sits in the low eighties so it profiles as an elite pitch.

The fastball is probably more of a sinker. Last summer, Schultz averaged 12.1 IVB with 13.6 HB. The pitch has elite spin rates with him averaging 2470 RPMs last summer but on a 2:00 axis with middling efficiency. The pitch given the feel for SSW on the sweeper and impactful gyro spin has great turbo sinker potential but it’s a work in progress. The pitch has added velocity this spring and is now more 93–95 MPH with plus extension. The fastball should be a plus pitch.

The changeup is interesting. He throws it with solid velocity separation (~10 MPH) from the heater and good arm speed. The pitch has about the same IVB as the fastball (11.5) with very comparable fade as well (14.4). The changeup is reliant on getting timing base swings due to the separation from the fastball- a separation that was probably amplified slightly this spring. The pitch only projects as average but it’s not hard to see the upside here.

Noah Schultz looks a bit weird for a starting pitcher. He’s 6'9" but throws from such a low slot that his average release point is 5.27 feet. This means the higher sinker can work nearly as well as the old one. Schultz has fantastic athleticism and throws a lot more strikes than most pitchers his age. I fantasize about the possibility that Schultz adds a cutter to bridge the FB/SL shapes and to take advantage of the high spin and low efficiency that he can naturally create. He already shows elite feel for both pronation and arm speed so it can’t be that hard right? There is Ace level upside here but Schultz has considerable risk and will need to be in the right situation to reach that upside.

25. SS Cole Young, North-Allegheny High School

Cole Young is a prep shortstop who should hit for average and at least flashes above-average power upside. I buy in on the plus athlete with the actions to stick on the dirt and an above-average arm that will play at just about any position. He shows fantastic lateral mobility in all of my looks so even if the present day plus or better speed doesn’t stick, he should still be an average shortstop.

The hit tool is the calling card here. Cole Young has a simple swing with what seems to be efficient timing. There are some posture concerns that might be adversely affecting the contact quality but the contact quantity is top-notch. Young makes lots of contact and he makes good swing decisions. Cole Young has solid attack angles and feel for the barrel as well. There are a bit too many mishit balls because Young has a knack for making contact against bad pitches that he would be better off with whiffs against early in the count.

I do think you probably want to see Cole Young trade some of his contact skills in for more power. Cole Young makes so much contact in large part because he has such a late point of contact. Young’s swinging late normally means there is some concern with what he will do with top-end velocity at the next level but more so, it means that most of his batted balls are being hit to the opposite field. It is hard for even players with elite raw power to hit for power when they go the other way. Young has solid raw power but it’s not quite that elite.

Cole Young has plus bat speed and great torque in his swing after making some adjustments in recent years. The energy generated by his top half is significant but he lacks muscle- especially in the bottom half. I think given the build you can pretty easily project more strength in the lower half and expect the raw power to take off. I still question the game power output given the connection point though. I have graded as a high variance 45 power hitter.

Cole Young has all the tools to be great in the big leagues. Those tools should make him a first round selection and probably will since I know a number of teams in the back half of round one are considering him there. Young needs some work but the makeup is reportedly very high and he has the body and skills to be successful. I think the hit first athlete offers more of a floor than most preps and with some adjustments, we could see solid game power from Young as well.

26. SS/3B Peyton Graham, Oklahoma

Peyton Graham reminds me of Tim Anderson. That isn’t really a comp, just a vague feel thing. Okay, it actually is a bit of a comp. If you watch Graham play he looks like the best player on the field and a genuine superstar. Then afterward you pull up the trackman data and he looks extremely underwhelming. At the same time, he had a 142 wRC+and over his last 225 PA hit .365/.453/.698 while playing shortstop.

The contact rates are not all that. Graham has just a 38th percentile contact rate this year. Graham also chases 30.4% of the time. He got better as the year progressed but those rates were still average at best in the second half. Yet, Peyton Graham still managed to hit .335 which is in the 89th percentile of D1 players. How did he when he whiffs so much? The same way Tim Anderson hit .322 from 2019–2021 despite even worse whiff and chase rates. Peyton Graham has an exceptional BAcon profile.

If you had told me that a month ago, I would have scratched my head and laughed. Peyton Graham in games with trackman has a 29th percentile line-drive rate, a 17th percentile popup rate, and a 31st percentile softly hit rate. So how the heck are the BABIP skills elite?

Like Tim Anderson, Peyton Graham is a flush contact monster. Graham consistently adjusts the shape of his swing- flattening out up in the zone and steepening the bat angle to get pitches down. He can get the barrel all over the plate and because he is always on plane, he’s always hitting with optimal spin traits. His average batted ball has an 85th percentile spin rate but the real calling card is how many of them have backspin. Peyton Graham hits 65.6% of his batted balls with backspin. That is in the 100th percentile.

The power profile is interesting. Peyton Graham has a Max EV of just 109.9 MPH although he has topped 109 four times, all with Hawkeye. His raw power is above-average but it’s nothing elite. Peyton Graham has room to grow into his frame too and add even more power. The build is very projectable and he has the bat speed and rotational ability as a foundation for further strength gains to take him to new heights. Peyton Graham has power consistency issues and as such only has a 6.8% barrel rate (71st percentile). So are the 20 homers a fluke? Not even close.

Peyton Graham has perfect game power optimization. He has an 87th percentile outfield flyball rate and pulls 31.4% of his outfield flyballs. That helps his flyballs find their way over the wall. What really is the difference maker though is once against the elite feel for spinning his batted balls.

Peyton Graham hits 91.4% of his flyballs with backspin and has an average spin rate of 3348 RPMs on them. That adds probably close to 15 feet of carry to his average flyball and juiced his HR/FB rates well beyond what the barrel rate would suggest. Do you know who else consistently outperforms their barrel rates in the power department? That’s right! Tim Anderson.

Peyton Graham clearly fits at shortstop for the time being. He’s a plus athlete with both plus arm strength and plus speed. I like the infield actions fine and he showcases good range. There’s some third base risk if he grows into his frame, but he’s a 45 shortstop projection right now. He also can really hit.

Tim Anderson is supposed to be a unicorn. Randy Arozarena has some things in common but it’s not the same. It feels unrealistic to expect a random college guy in Graham to walk that very fine line and replicate how Anderson finds his success. The upside here is huge but there’s some risk because the profile is unique. Despite, the risk he earns a first round grade because of the upside and the fact that there’s also a more conventional route to the majors where he just fills in and becomes a big power third baseman, the body and swing both make such a path very possible. Graham is an unconventional player but I think he’s probably a good one.

27. SP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union High School

Jacob Miller is one of my favorite prep arms based on pure present day stuff quality. There are four pitches of quality here and throws strikes at a healthy enough rate to start. There are warts in the profile but as far as the foundation goes, Miller is about as good as you can find from a prep arm.

The fastball is the worst pitch in Jacob Miller’s arsenal. The fastball sat 91–93 MPH last summer and topped out at just 95 MPH and had slightly below-average extension. The movement is similarly unspectacular. Miller averaged just 13.8" IVB and 13.7" HB after adjusting for the height of the seams on the high school ball. He has good feel for spin averaging a little over 2300 RPMs but not enough efficiency to really miss bats. The pitch is still solid due to a 5.6 ft vertical release point and 1.5 ft horizontal release but it doesn’t really grade out as any better than average. Then this spring rolled around and MIller sat 93–95 MPH and has hit as high as 99 MPH. That bumps this up to an above-average grade now.

The curveball is an above-average pitch. Jacob Miller averaged 78.6 MPH with spin rates a little over 2500 RPMs last summer. He gets above-average movement on both planes with -9.9" IVB and 11.7 inches of sweep. What’s interesting is the curveball actually has a 6:30 axis, the sidespin comes from inefficient spin efficiency that leads to seam-shifted wake. I think it’s likely that as he tightens up his curveball shape, the pitch finds itself getting a lot more depth and becomes more distinct. The feel for the breaking ball is top notch and he can land it for a strike with solid regularity.

The slider has promising sweeper traits, and given the natural feel for the seam-shifted wake he already shows with the curve, I think it’s very possible to make the sweeper special. The pitch is thrown moderately hard at 81.6 MPH but the movement is what sets it apart. The slider averages -1.6" IVB and 9.4" HB. The pitch regularly gets batters to expand the zone and fish them out of the dirt. I think right now, the slider and curve blend together more often than not but they are different pitches, and I think just naturally accentuating the best traits of both in his development will make them distinct without extra work needed.

The changeup rounds out the repertoire and I somewhat controversially also have it as an above-average pitch. Jacob Miller has somewhat limited command of the changeup and uses it very sparingly. He only threw two of them with pitch tracking. One of them missed arm side for a ball and the other got a chase in the dirt and was weakly rolled over. The command is not there. What is there is the shape. Those two changeups averaged 81.4 MPH and he was sitting in that same range this spring. He also averaged 6.8" IVB and 20 inches of arm side run on those two pitches. Yes, small sample but wow. He has feel to pronate at a high level and creates lots of movement on the changeup. It’s a high risk pitch with a potentially massive payoff.

Jacob Miller’s delivery has some recoil and an aggressive arm stroke that causes some pause. There is not really any projection in terms of future strength gains but you don’t need those given that he is now hitting 99 MPH. Jacob Miller has the best secondary stuff in the prep class and the fastball is decent too. I could make a good argument that Miller is the second best prep arm in the draft. I don’t actually have him there but you could easily argue it. There are four quality pitches and he had just a 1.7 BB/9 in his final year of high school. There is Ace upside here even though I think Miller probably will not reach it. He’s easily worth late first round money for me.

28. CF Jud Fabian, Florida

I had Jud Fabian ranked in this exact spot one year ago when he went in the second round to Boston but failed to sign which is a hilarious coincidence. Jud Fabian got better this year so he probably should be higher but despite the skill improvements, the risk remains the same and the upside didn’t actually move significantly ( I also think this year’s draft is a bit better).

Jud Fabian has a very suspect hit tool- you know, probably. The contact skills are bad. I shouldn’t need to say that. Early in the year, he had league-average contact rates in the strike zone but an ugly May dropped him back down to just 78.8%. Jud Fabian has decent whiff rates against breaking balls and elite swinging-strike rates. He also has added changeup domination to his skillset this year.

The problem remains the high fastball. Against four-seamers in the top half, Fabian has a 28.6% Swinging-Strike rate in games with Trackman this year. This isn’t a velocity problem- just a location one. Fastball up and Fabian perishes, fastball misses down, and the pitcher is the one to die.

The BABIP skill is what I would rather focus on. Jud Fabian had just a .222 BABIP this year after running a .283 mark last year. Yet, according to a source, his expected BABIP based on quality of contact was .333 this year. That is not actually that great for a college bat but it is a whole lot better than whatever Jud was this year. So was it bad luck? Not particularly. Fabian had a 7th percentile popup rate and 25th percentile line drive rate per FaBIO. I don’t really know what xBABIP is seeing but I don’t see good BABIPs out of anything but the hard contact in the profile.

The power is elite in games. Jud Fabian only has a Max EV of 110 MPH in Trackman games but I will always take the over on his power production. Fabian has 96th percentile feel for hitting outfield flyballs and that leads to a 17.7% barrel rate this year (98th percentile). He plays above even that too because Jud Fabian has the highest rate of pulled flyballs in the entire SEC and is at 50% pulled in trackman games. This means he is very shiftable and further kills the BABIPs but it’s why the in-game power production is arguably the best in the SEC. Fabian should continue to run elite in-game power production because he hits the ball hard and in the air to the pullside. This means magical things occur regularly.

Jud Fabian’s key to success is simply to stop swinging at the high fastball. Jud Fabian swings at 61.2% of pitches in the top half. I think it’s fairly likely that Jud Fabian can stop swinging so much. This is literally the player with the best swing decisions in the country according to Mason McRae. The ability to recognize pitches and only swing when it makes sense is the best in the draft. Now he just has to tailor his swing decisions to fit Jud’s strengths rather than the average player.

Jud can afford to take the called strike on pitches in the top half. Fabian makes quality contact against secondaries and whiffs just 26.4% of the time against non-four-seam fastballs. Jud Fabian also will punish any four-seamer that misses low. I think that Jud would be limited in some matchups- you never want him hitting against someone like Joe Ryan, but with creative managing would still be an extremely valuable bat.

Joey Gallo has the same issue, he whiffs 43.2% of the time on fastballs in the top half in his career (And can’t hit breaking balls too!). The key difference between Gallo and Fabian though is that Gallo only swings at 47% of pitches in the top half. There is also an argument for flattening the bat path but I would rather not jeopardize the power by doing so.

Jud Fabian is also a plus centerfielder. He’s only a plus runner but the speed absolutely plays out there because he has elite burst and crisp routes, with the ability to go up and steal homeruns, or lay out and make highlight reel diving catches. The arm strength is also above-average and he’s pretty accurate too. Here are some fun numbers courtesy of Mason once again:

“When we look at expected data on balls hit into Jud’s territory, hitters have a batting average 27 points lower than the expected rate, and a slugging percentage 68 points lower. When we look at the rest of the country and on balls hit into CF, hitters have an average 42 points higher than their expected one with a slugging percentage 25 higher. So relative to the average CF, Jud is saving 69 points in batting average, and 67 points in slugging percentage. The difference between the top offense, and the 35th best.” — Mason McRae

Jud Fabian is a fourth year junior but he’s still the same age (And experience level) as Jace Jung is this year and Henry Davis was last year when he was taken at #1 overall. His experience isn’t why he’s good. I think Fabian has hit a wall developmentally and any growth has been minimal since the Cape in 2019. That is not his ceiling but he probably needs to go somewhere other than Florida to further develop since they seem content with what Fabian already is. There is tons of hit tool risk here but I think Fabian likely profiles somewhat similarly to Joey Gallo with better defense but slightly less game power as well. It’s hard to shoot the moon with your first-round pick but Fabian is worth the risk because he has the talent to be a superstar even with hit tool questions.

29. SP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage High School

I have gone back and forth on Barriera quite a bit but I think I’ve learned to love the profile. I don’t trust very many teams to actually develop him into a major league starting pitcher but in the right system, Barriera could be incredible. I tend to assume good player development when ranking prospects so I have Barriera inside the first round despite some ugly black spots on the current projection.

The fastball is thrown hard. Barriera sits 93–96 MPH and has been running it up to 99 MPH this spring from the left handed side. The fastball is also outright horrendous. The pitch has just 10.3" IVB and 3.9" HB on average and that’s without even adjusting for the elevated seam height of the high school baseball. This is an ugly dead zone pitch that will get hammered at any speed.

The fastball sucks but it shouldn’t be his primary anyways. I want Barriera to ditch the terrible four-seam fastball for a cutter. After talking with multiple people in the industry, I’ve realized Barriera’s never going to get that much carry on his four-seamer. His wrist orientation doesn’t allow for it. The natural supination though makes him an ideal cutter candidate. Barriera already has no efficiency on his fastball and solid spin rates so it’s just a matter of starting to channel that 0% spin efficiency efficiently. Cutting the ball seems like the best way to do that.

The curveball has stupid movement. The spin rates are consistently over 2600 and it’s actually a pretty efficient pitch. He’s flashed -22.5" IVB which is just absurd even if he’s more consistently sitting ~-15". That is still insane by the way. The curve has close to ten inches of sweep as well. He needs more power as he sits at ~77 MPH but the shape is really strong so it still easily warrants a plus grade.

The slider is a hard pitch to gauge. He often sits 82–85 MPH with plus spin rates. The pitch has high gyro angle and plus vertical depth, averaging -1.8 IVB. The real appeal here though is the sweeper potential. Barriera doesn’t average a ton of sweep but he’ll occasionally break one off with double digit horizontal break and leave batters flailing. The release is somewhat wide and he has an elite feel for gyro spin so it’s easy to see him utilizing SSW to create a wipeout sweeper. It’s only an above-average grade but the upside is high in Barriera’s slider.

The changeup does two things at a high level. He kills spin and creates vertical depth. The changeup is nearly 900 RPMs lower than the fastball on average while coming in about 8 MPH slower. He also gets just 3.7 IVB on average. That is plus vertical depth. The problem is that Barriera doesn’t even really flash good horizontal movement. He really struggles to create arm side movement with his arsenal.

I think Barriera should probably switch to a splitter and lean into the strengths of his offspeed- kill spin and kill lift. Of course, just about zero lefties throw splitters so it might not be a realistic ask. I have the changeup graded as average because it’s not going to function at all as is on top of the always present command/feel concerns but its upside is high because he has two very important plus characteristics.

The command is above-average from Barriera and I suspect that with the fastball shape, Barriera will always have an above-average batted ball profile as well. His mechanics are gorgeous with excellent optimization for velocity without hurting command in the process or creating excessive injury risk. The athleticism is superb as well. Barriera offers four quality pitches and throws strikes but given that he’s a project, he’s more of a late first round target for me. If a smart team takes him in the top 15 or whatever, I will have no problems with him going that high.

30. SP/RP Landon Sims, Mississippi State

Landon Sims was maybe the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons. He posted just a 1.38 ERA with a 46.7% strikeout rate and just a 6.3% walk rate. He was the highest-rated pitcher from a Power 5 school according to FaBIO. However, most of those 72 innings came in relief and his elbow went pop this spring so now he is out a year with Tommy John Surgery.

Landon Sims has a lethal fastball. The pitch sits at 94.3 MPH and has touched as high as 97.8 MPH in the last two seasons. In that same span, Sims is averaging 18.5" IVB and 5 inches of arm side tail. Sims still dominates with the heater despite somewhat pedestrian movement because he has a very unique approach angle. Sims throws from a 5.67 RelHeight and a 3.00 RelSide. He has an elite feel to elevate the fastball and can command it on both sides of the plate. The pitch has been incredibly effective over the last two years with a 28.2% in-zone whiff rate. I would grade the heater closer to a plus than an elite grade but it is a very good pitch nevertheless.

The slider traits don’t actually jump off the page. He has 10.7 inches of sweep on average but doesn’t kill any lift so it’s only at 5.9" IVB. The slider sits at 84.8 MPH and he averages 2420 RPMs. The slider HAA plays up because of the arm slot and he completely dismantles right-handed hitters with the glove side slider to the tune of a 27.8% Swinging-Strike rate on the glove side third of the plate.

Usually, a one-plane slider like the one Sims has that only offers sweep can’t do diddly squat against left-handed hitters. This should be even more true given the arm angle. Except, you’re forgetting the best part of Landon Sims’ slider. Sims has elite slider command and that makes all the difference in the world. Landon Sims lands 29.1% of his sliders on the arm side. Against left-handed hitters, his average slider has a plate location of 0.58 ft. Against righties, it is -0.53 ft for comparison. He pounds the backdoor slider against lefties and holy cow does it work. Sims has a 55.3% CSW on sliders to his arm side.

Let’s rewind for a second. Landon Sims does the exact same thing with his fastball. Sims has an average fastball location of 0.58' arm side against lefties. He throws his fastball with an average location of -0.10' against righties. The appeal of Landon Sims is immaculate command of both his pitches against batters of both handednesses. He always keeps the fastball and slider on the same side of the plate to maximize their synergy. Landon Sims stuff-wise profiles as a guy who should have a massive platoon split but he really doesn’t have one at all. He’s more dependent on called strikes against lefties but he misses just as many bats and only walks slightly more hitters.

Landon Sims only really has two pitches. He’s thrown the changeup twice with trackman and the specs are not remotely good. I have very little hope of Sims developing a third pitch. The batted ball profile is highly flawed with him really failing to excel in every area. He’s going to give up a lot of homers with how aggressively he fills the zone and his fair share of singles as well.

Ultimately, I still think Sims can start though because of exceptional command. Landon Sims only needs two pitches because even if his shape changes (Called Strikes versus LHB, Swinging against RHB), he still decimates everyone he faces and should always have very strong K/BB ratios. There is relief risk in the profile but he looks like a starting pitcher even with just two pitches because of elite command. Tommy John hurts but as I said with Lesko, it’s not that big of a turnoff for me.

31. RP Ben Joyce, Tennessee

I go much more in-depth on Ben Joyce in tomorrow’s blog on the best relief prospects so I’ll keep this somewhat brief. Yes, Ben Joyce is a pure reliever. I still have a first-round grade on him. I think with the way teams value relievers on the trade market, and in free agency; one with surefire shutdown stuff like Joyce should be in consideration as a first-round pick.

Ben Joyce throws his fastball with generational velocity. He tops out at 105.5 MPH and averaged 101.4 MPH in games with Trackman. Both of those figures have only ever been approached by Aroldis Chapman. The fastball would still be an elite pitch if he only sits 97 MPH though. The pitch has a 4.2° VAA because he throws from a 5.05 ft release height and has decent vertical movement. His VAA is actually playing down too because Joyce doesn’t elevate the fastball. It’s the same location-neutral VAA as Edwin Diaz with plus tailing action as well. 80-grade pitch without question.

The slider has such rabid fans that some of the more out there ones try to claim it is even better than the fastball. I disagree but it’s a fantastic pitch as well. Joyce gets 17.6 inches of sweep on average which is in the 97th percentile and from a 2.25 RelSide that plays up even further. The pitch plays down because he’s throwing it 17 MPH slower than the fastball and as a result there is no tunnel but it’s still a plus pitch that would be truly elite if he added more velocity to it.

I don’t even hate Ben Joyce’s changeup. The command and control are not particularly good. The batted ball profile projects as robust though and even most elite relievers have control woes. They aren’t that much of a detriment. There are workload concerns but even with him only throwing 40 innings a year, if you a contender have him healthy for the postseason every year, then he’s a worthwhile selection because the stuff is going to single-handedly win playoff games. Joyce has risk but he’s going to assuredly be an impact player if he’s even somewhat healthy.

Even if Joyce’s elbow spontaneously combusts after four years, you still probably are getting more out of Joyce than the majority of first round picks will provide to their team. There is no absurd upside outcome here but the difference between his 90th percentile outcome and the median outcome is primarily just health. This is a plug and play MLB high leverage relief Ace (Who should be shutdown after the draft to protect the elbow coming off of TJS; so plug and play in 2023).

32. CF/LF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman High School

Justin Crawford is the son of Carl Crawford and prior to this spring, I would have forced a comp between the two. Justin is an 80 grade runner with a 6.11 seconds 60 yd dash (Second fastest at the event, something was whack that even since Gupton ran a 5.96). He’s also a plus contact hitter with a below-average arm who might fit best in left field because despite elite speed. Except, something crazy happened this spring. Justin Crawford muscled up and now has above-average raw power.

Justin Crawford has above-average bat speed. His bat path is more contact-oriented so it doesn’t really play ing names though. He is starting to at least show impact gap power now though as Crawford has filled in. His Max EV last summer was just 88.6 MPH in games and 100.2 MPH in BP. I don’t have the exit velocity to back it up but that appears to not be the case anymore. He has hit some absolute tanks and is stinging the ball regularly. I think given the still projectable build and compact swing, Crawford probably has an above-average raw power projection in his future with the potential for plus.

The contact skill is the calling card here. Justin Crawford has made contact at an elite rate this spring with a 3.9% strikeout rate at a good school in Bishop Gorman. He whiffed some last summer with Hawkeye but was good in the other games, so I’m ignoring that tiny sample input. The bat path is simple and he has no trouble hitting velocity. I do have some concerns with him topping the ball but groundballs are a winning strategy when you have 80 grade speed.

Make no mistake, Justin Crawford does indeed have 80 grade speed. He’s filled in some but it doesn’t look like he’s lost a single step. Maybe as he continues to grow the speed will actually decline but I’m not betting on it. That 80 grade speed should play in the form of elite range in the outfield. There is some question on if he has the arm strength to stick in centerfield as his arm is clearly below-average strength wise but I think he has the range to make the lack of arm strength not all that important.

Slight tweener risk but he’s a centerfielder who shows flashes of a plus hit/power combo. He will likely only settle in with average power but that still will play every day of the week. Justin Crawford is also reportedly a very high makeup kid and he has the bloodlines a lot of teams covet. He’s also a model darling as he’ll be just 17.5 on draft day. I get the early first-round appeal, even if I have graded at the very back of the first.

33. C Dalton Rushing, Louisville

Dalton Rushing is a slam dunk first round target for me and the fact that some people don’t even have him in the first two rounds will never fail to surprise me. His batted ball data is on par with the last Louisville catcher, Henry Davis. In case you forgot, Davis went #1 overall. Rushing has a better approach at the plate too. You could even argue that Rushing is the better defensive catcher.

Dalton Rushing was in the 94th percentile of catcher DRS according to TruMedia (Sourced). His framing is maybe a bit rough but who cares when Manfred has promised Robo-Umps in 2024 already? He’s not athletic in the traditional sense and is a lumberer but he clearly is capable of playing behind the plate.

Dalton Rushing only has a 30% caught stealing rate but steals are often on the pitcher and the arm strength and pop times both grade out pretty highly. Dalton Rushing has an 82nd percentile pop time averaging 1.98 seconds on all throws but if we isolate it to just their top 10% of throws (How statcast does pop time but they separate based on the bag stolen) then Rushing has the highest pop time in the country. Rushing is also in the 82nd percentile of 90th throw velo. The arm strength is clearly there for Rushing to stick behind the plate as long as a team wants him there.

Dalton Rushing is a good defensive catcher but the bat is what makes him worthy of a first-round pick. Dalton Rushing led the entire country in Hard-Hit rate this year. His Max EV is technically 115.6 MPH but it’s likely a misread. The hardest hit batted ball with a launch angle above 0° is only 110.2 MPH. The top 8th EV is also only in the 93rd percentile. Rushing has plus raw power but it’s not quite as good as the hard-hit rate suggests it to be.

The game power is more up to speed with the hard-hit rate though because Rushing has elite power optimization. His outfield flyball rate is in the 97th percentile per FaBIO and when combined with the elite hard-hit rates that lead to an 18.6% barrel rate which is in the 99th percentile of college players. Rushing also has fantastic spin traits that enable him to hit for more homers. The average batted ball from Rushing has a 95th percentile spin rate and an 83rd percentile backspin%. He gets extra carry on his aerial contact and he hits everything hard. Predictably, elite results occur.

Dalton Rushing also makes fantastic swing decisions. Rushing swings at just 22% of out of zone pitches and swings 66% of the time in the strike zone. His chase rates against breaking balls are particularly stellar as he only chases 17.9% of those (Also only swings at 40% in the zone though).

You would probably expect there to be a 60% contact rate or something to explain why a catcher with such good game power and a good approach is so widely disrespected. Rushing is below-average in that regard but a 77.4% contact rate and 83.8% contact rate in the strike zone are far from terrible.

But the shape of the contact rates is what matters here. 54.6% of Dalton Rushing’s swings are against fastballs (They make up 44.5% of pitches he sees). Rushing crushes fastballs right now. The problem is that we can’t be certain that will translate because Rushing has a 48.2% whiff rate on 74 pitches at 93+.

This is not a huge sample size but velocity issues are scary in any sample. There is a chance that the offense completely collapses against higher velocity stuff. We had the same concern with Cal Raleigh out of college and he’s still developed into a top ten catcher. There is also the chance that 74 pitches are way too small of a sample and the contact rates remain solid against fastballs.

There is some risk here but I tend to think it gets blown out of proportion. Rushing shows advanced pitch recognition and has the ability to hit the ball with authority. He’s a good catcher with both an arm and a glove. You don’t need elite batting averages for Rushing because he can still succeed in other ways. I don’t think the hit tool is particularly good but it’s enough for the power/on-base profile to play even with velocity issues.

34. SP Carson Whisenhunt, East Carolina

Carson Whisenhunt was the top 2022 draft-eligible pitcher during the 2021 season according to FaBIO and the stuff metrics weren’t that far behind the results. Whisenhunt missed all of the 2022 season with a PED suspension and that hurt his draft stock for some reason. He’s been back to pitching in the Cape and the stuff reportedly grades out about where it was last year. The results haven’t been there because the command is rusty but he still has the same upside. As a bonus, unlike most college arms, Whisenhunt won’t have to be shut down after being drafted to protect the arm. You can instead work on stretching him out now and make immediate changes.

The fastball velocity doesn’t blow you away but for a lefty sitting 92.5 MPH is perfectly fine. The fastball has fairly average spin rates on an 11:00 axis but is close to perfect spin efficiency. As such, the pitch gets 19.5 IVB and 12.3 HB. His release isn’t special from a 6.13 RelHeight and a 1.52 RelSide but the movement still plays. There is some velocity projection here as well and you would hope that his taking steroids wasn’t in vain and has also improved the velocity. I have an above-average projection on the heater even if it is more average right now.

The changeup had a 42% Swinging-Strike rate last year on 207 of them with Trackman. That’s all you need to know about it.

Okay, fine, I’ll give you a little more. The changeup sits 9 MPH slower than the fastball at 83.5 MPH on average and just under 500 RPMs lower at 1708 RPMs. The pitch averages 9.7 IVB and 15.5 HB. The real draw here is the armspeed, fastball tunnel, and arm side command though. He probably won’t get chases 55% of the time at the next level but I doubt he goes from a 42% Swinging-Strike rate to anything less than a plus. The pitch is just utterly obscene in the scope of it’s dominance.

The curveball rounds out his repertoire and earns average grades. The pitch has -10.2" IVB and 6.2 inches of sweep. He sits at 79 MPH with plus feel for spinning the ball. The biggest draw though is his ability to land the curve for strikes so consistently. The pitch is his worst pitch but given the arm speed, I still like its upside to be at least average.

The pitch to contact profile is actually probably the most enticing element of Whisenhunt’s game. Carson Whisenhunt uses the low fastball to perfection despite its vertical movement being better suited up in the zone. The low fastball is a large part of why the changeup is so lethal but it also has major benefits in terms of his batted ball profile.

The low fastball gets groundballs at a 92nd percentile clip as due to the medial release he gets chases to the arm side, and the higher angle helps make him tough to square up down. I think the groundball rate will fall to like ~75th percentile against good hitting but it should always be strong. Whisenhunt is also getting popups at an average rate because of the threat of the high fastball and the ability to jam people inside. Finally, the horizontal action of his stuff lets him miss barrels and have a plus batted ball profile as a whole.

Carson Whisenhunt does have some control issues that need to be worked out. The lack of changeups in the zone is a bit of a red flag because he won’t get so many chases at the next level. It’s still a 65 grade pitch but he issues out on an elite grade because of it despite inhuman results. Whisenhunt offers elite out-generation skills though with three quality pitches from the left handed side. He’s a somewhat flawed arm but I think he’s worthy of a late first round pick at about slot value.

35. SS/3B/OF Cameron Smith, Palm Beach Central

Cameron Smith is one of if not the oldest high school players in this year’s draft. He will be 19.4 on draft day and that is adversely affecting his stock which is already hurt by how late Smith bloomed. Cameron Smith was a JV nobody until 2021 when he posted a video of himself hitting 97 MPH off a tee with a wood bat on Twitter with @FlatgroundBats tagged in the post. A few months later he was on his varsity team with a commitment to Florida State. He has not been invited to most showcase games because he bloomed so late but he’s done nothing but mash in a 7A High School this year (Led all Florida 7A players in OPS) and has a very sweet swing with good athleticism.

The power is the calling card here. Cameron Smith has what appears to visually be plus bat speed and gets fantastic torque in his swing. The way he manages the lower half is incredible. His hip hinge is extremely prominent and his load is efficient. The way he manages his backside stands out more than anything. He has a stable base and collapses the backside once the torso starts to move to give it an extra bit of juice and effectively shifts his weight to his front side. He proved his power with the farthest hit ball at the draft combine and I think he is only going to get stronger as Smith is still very lanky.

Unlike most people who generate a ton of power with their entire body, I don’t really think Cameron Smith has any hit tool problems. He struck out just 7.2% of the time in a 7A Florida School as a senior and the swing looks great. His bat path is simple and clean with a good plane and he should have no trouble hitting velocity. The spin recognition is a risk because we haven’t seen Smith against good prep arms yet but it’s a risk worth taking. Cameron Smith also shows above-average barrel accuracy and even had the 6th highest sweet-spot rate there. The hit tool has risk but I have zero problems throwing an average grade on it because the upside is also pretty high.

The athleticism is a bit contested and him not participating in the draft combine’s athletic testing (Still recovering from a hip strain I believe, but not entirely certain) has left things somewhat murky. I’m got some 70-grade run times on him on home to first plays but home to first runs are notoriously volatile. I do like the athleticism and still, have him graded as a plus runner despite the larger build but if he fills in, he could wind up closer to the average projection some have him at.

I’ve come away impressed every time I’ve watched Cameron Smith play shortstop. He has plus arm strength and excellent arm utility as well- a must for a shortstop. He has some general accuracy issues but he can make throws off balance with enough strength to get it to first in time. Smith is big and that doesn’t say shortstop but he still plays low to the ground and is excellent at charging in for balls. He has some issues when ranging to his arm side as he often will early commit but the overall defensive profile is that of a quality shortstop. There is some third base risk if he gets too big but he’ll be a stellar defender there. I’ve actually seen a few people suggest that he plays centerfield but I don’t really see it.

Cameron Smith is one of my favorite players in the entire draft. I can and have watched him swing the bat for hours. The swing is incredibly crisp and just as effective as it looks. Smith is a great athlete with projection and present strength as well. He’s older but if he was just a year younger, I’m not sure he makes it out of the first fifteen picks. I’ve heard great things about the makeup and I think better things of his talent.

36. CF/RF Jacob Melton, Oregon State

Jacob Melton doesn't really have the tools of any of the other players I have a first round grade on. What Melton offers is just well-rounded goodness and elite barrel precision that makes him highly likely to profile as an everyday player in the majors even if it won’t be a starring role in all likelihood. Melton is just a good ballplayer.

The contact skills are interesting. Jacob Melton has below-average contact rates with just a 72% contact rate over the last two years (Sourced). However, I’m optimistic that will improve (He was also up to like ~76.1% this year) in time. Melton’s breakdown of whiffs is absolutely fascinating. Jacob Melton has very strong whiff rates against breaking balls (at least in Trackman games this year) whiffing just 21.1% of the time against them.

Where Melton falters is against fastballs and offspeed stuff. Melton doesn’t look particularly bad against high-end velocity. Melton only has one whiff against 91+ this year with Trackman. He isn’t bad at hitting stuff up in the zone either. What ties Melton up appears to be the concept of arm side movement from same-handed pitchers especially. I don’t really understand it either. I think given that he has no issues with stuff moving glove side or location-wise, the issues are probably solvable? Maybe? Melton does make good swing decisions as a whole with a 70.5% Z-Swing and 23.4% chase rate.

The raw power is ahead of the game power. Jacob Melton has a Max EV of 111.4 MPH. His 90th EV over the last two years is 107.2 MPH. He has a 49% hard-hit rate. There is plus raw power here. The problem is that Melton can’t put the ball in the air. 47.2% of his batted balls since the start of 2021 are hit on the ground. Melton’s power still plays because he has good barrel accuracy (Lots of LD and lower FB) and optimal sprays but the power isn’t where it could be.

Jacob Melton is a plus runner with a fringe chance of sticking in centerfield and enough arm strength to stick in right field if center doesn’t work out. The bat is the calling card here with a potentially above-average hit/power combo but he’s only in the first round discussion because he probably can play centerfield. I really don’t think Melton will light the world on fire but he could hit like .260 with 20/20 seasons every year and you would be more than happy with that production.

37. SP Walter Ford, Pace High School

Walter Ford is probably ranked too low by having him only at the tail end of the first round grades. He’s the youngest arm in the draft and he has an elite feel for spin. He was incredible in his final year of high school. The delivery is artistry in action and he projects for even more velocity despite already hitting 97 MPH. There is a lot to like here for sure but he is very much presently a project arm.

Walter Ford’s primary attraction might be the delivery. He has elite movements on the mound throughout and it makes it very easy to dream of him developing even more velocity. He gets incredible scap retraction and plunges deep with his arm action to delay the torso rotation. There is excellent torso rotation here and he has elite arm speed. His arm is consistently on time and I think Ford will hit triple digits in his prime. The athlete is incredible and it’s also likely he grows into above-average control.

The fastball is a somewhat complicated pitch. The feel for spin is some of the best in the draft with Ford sitting at ~2400 RPMs and touching 2700. The fastball also has good velocity at the present time sitting 92–94 MPH and it should only get better. Those two traits make it easy to dream on a plus fastball but it’s a little more complicated than that.

The fastball shape is not great. He has a tendency to cut the ball and as such only averages 17" IVB (~15" when adjusted for seam height) and 3.7 HB. I don’t think there’s any reason he can’t stop cutting the ball, it’s not a wrist orientation issue or anything but it’s not a guarantee he will fix it either and the current shape is outright bad. He also throws from a higher release at 6.1' which puts him a bit of a gray spot even if he fixes the efficiency.

The slider is fatal. His is a sweeper due to the heavy seam-shifted wake traits on it. He sits around 80 MPH with double digit sweep and approximately 0" IVB. The pitch has absurd spin rates as well sitting at 2700 RPMs on most of them. The pitch flashes 70 grade stuff when he’s working in the low-mid eighties but he is more consistently in the upper seventies where it looks more flat. The slider is the primary reason for not fixing the fastball as changing the release positioning could destroy the slider's sweep. I still think it’s a worthwhile change but there’s an argument for keeping him as is and trying to make him a bowling ball pitcher.

The changeup rounds out the repertoire and earns an average grade from me. I think the feel for creating seam-shifted wake will do wonders and he’s an elite athlete with arm speed. It’s very much a work in progress like the rest of the package but there’s obvious potential here.

Walter Ford has the upside to make everyone who passes on him look very foolish but he’s so young and unrefined that the risk is probably too great for most teams to take round one. I disagree and have him at the very back of it.

45 FVs

38. LF/CF Brock Jones, Stanford

Spoiler warning but the next four college hitters on my board all fall under the same umbrella. They all have major hit questions but are gods when they make contact and have other desirable aspects. Brock Jones is at the front of this tier with a slight edge because of the more disciplined approach with Jones only chasing 18.6% of the time in the last two years (69% Z-Swing%).

He has just a 35% contact rate over the last two years (Sourced so actually a good sample size) but he’s still 15th in wOBA for a variety of reasons. He has perhaps the best game power in the nation with 34.8% of his batted balls with Trackman in the last two-years being hit hard and with a launch angle between 10° and 35°. He has a .522 xwOBAcon in that span. What’s interesting is he only actually has a 43% groundball rate- it’s just all his aerial contact is hit optimally. Jones avoids mishits and that makes him a fantastic offensive force.

The catch is that the max exit velocity in a 57 BBE sample size is only 109.5 MPH. You can probably say that’s a fluke but if Jones only has above-average raw power then the road to success becomes very narrow. Jones is a plus runner but is still a fringy fit in centerfield with only average range and a below-average arm. There is a road to stardom here but given the general whiff struggles, he’s too high risk for a first round pick unless you’re certain he can play centerfield. I personally think he probably winds up in left field.

39. CF Gavin Turley, Hamilton High School

Gavin Turley is probably ranked too low given that I have Elijah Green as the #2 player in the draft. Gavin Turley has comparable raw tools to Elijah Green. The arm strength is actually better than Green and he is also an elite runner- even if slightly less so. The defense likewise projects as a plus in centerfield and he has comparable burst there. The bat speed is an 80 grade tool and he has elite raw power with his long levers. There is also feel to elevate although he’s a less consistent rotator than Green in my looks.

Like with Elijah Green, the contact rates are the concern. Green struck out 23.5% of the time this year at IMG, the best high school in the country. Turley struck out 25.9% of the time at a random 6A school in Arizona. The latter figure is a lot more concerning given the quality of competition difference. I also think Turley has some approach concerns as well. The swing looks more uncontrolled and the bat path is longer. The hit tool is very high risk and it’s not like Green where I’m confident it will at least be playable but I might be overselling the difference in risk as the upside is very comparable.

40. RF Dylan Beavers, California

Dylan Beavers is another wOBAcon demon. He has only plus raw power with a Max EV of 109.6 MPH but it’s very consistent raw power with some of the top hard-hit rates in the nation. He also has some of the lowest groundball rates and fantastic barrel accuracy. There is some concern here with the power/barrel accuracy translating though because he failed to show any of it during the Cape Cod League with wooden bats. I still like the offensive profile and can certainly see why a team would take him in the first round, but the profile feels a bit too risky for me.

Dylan Beavers was a first round grade until the very-end of the process where he just barely got bumped down. Ultimately, I find it hard to fall in love with a corner outfielder only who has below-average contact rates- especially against breaking balls where he whiffs 48% of the time. The plate discipline is good but it’s not enough to overcome the defensive limitations. I will also note that Dylan Beavers strike zone according to Hawkeye is a little over six inches smaller (Height wise) than the average player his height. When the MLB switches to the automatic ball-strike system, the odds are fairly high that it’s dependent on height rather than batting stance. Beavers’ eye has some volatility as a result. There’s a good chance that he outperforms this ranking significantly but there’s also a decent chance he doesn’t provide much value at all because he’s really a one skill guy and that one skill is game power.

41. SP Connor Prielipp, Arkansas

Connor Prielipp was someone mentioned in the top five discussions before he tore his UCL last year and needed Tommy John Surgery. He’s working his way back now and has thrown a few bullpens before the draft where his stuff has been back to where it was before he tore the UCL. The thing is, I’m not actually sure Prielipp would have been a first round grade before the torn UCL even.

The fastball comes from a fairly high 6.3' release height and only has average vertical movement. Prielipp sits at just 93 MPH and tops out a 96 MPH. The pitch has above-average spin rates but the shape and angle really don’t feel like enough. Yet, against all odds, in his 28 career innings, Prielipp is running a 33% in-zone whiff rate with the heater. The changeup is solid average with solid shape and a medial release but limited feel and inconsistent usage.

The slider is underwhelming? Sort of? He sits at 84 MPH on average with spin rates just under 2700. The pitch has a standard gyroball shape with average vertical depth and about 3 inches of gloveside movement. So why all the hype? The high release helps but the real draw is how it plays off the fastball apparently. One scout I talked to compared it to the way Robbie Ray’s four-seam and slider play off of each other and let somewhat mid-stuff on paper play up. The in-zone whiff rates support this theory.

Contractors will argue Prielipp had a ridiculously soft slate of opponents in his career- which is a true accusation. Prielipp threw just two innings against SEC opponents and allowed three runs in those two. Connor Prielipp throws strikes so if you buy in on the fastball/slider tunnel then I can get behind selecting him in the first round- even after TJS. I also think in the right organization, you can do some fun things with the changeup and make him a more well-rounded arm. I still question the individual pitches shapes too much for a round one grade but I am intrigued.

42. RF Jordan Beck, Tennessee

Jordan Beck is another big power bat with significant questions he still needs to answer. The Max EV is 113.5 MPH and he has a Top 8th EV of 108.8 MPH counting the Hawkeye games which is in the 97th percentile. He’s consistently scorching the ball and doing so in the air most of the time with what FaBIO has as an 80th percentile groundball rate. The game power is a bit worse than that might have you believe because he hits with a 16th percentile spin rate and a 7th percentile backspin% but it’s still plus game power.

So what warts does Beck have? It’s actually not defense as despite a right field projection, he could provide real defensive value. Jordan Beck has plus arm strength and above-average speed that actually plays up some in the field. There are some proponents of his who actually think he can play centerfield if not blocked by Drew Gilbert.

The contact skills are in question with a 28% whiff rate but it’s not as bad as it sounds. Beck actually has average in-zone whiff rates. The problem is that Beck chases 33% of the time and those chases lead to him striking out and not walking nearly enough. He also has fairly mediocre BABIP skills with subpar popup rates.

I totally understand why a team would want Beck in the first round with the power profile and general athleticism without major whiff concerns. I’m out because of the swing decisions but a team who thinks they can get him to stop chasing so many secondaries would be rewarded… Or at least a team would have wanted him in the first round. But then he flipped off his home crowd after hitting a homer to celebrate in the Supers. (That doesn’t actually matter, I just think it’s hilarious).

43. SP Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State

Justin Campbell doesn’t earn a first round grade from me but he has a lot of buzz in round one and depending on which team takes him, might wind up as one of my favorite first round picks. Campbell has the foundation to be one of the best players in the entire draft with good player development.

Justin Campbell has obscene vertical movement on his fastball. He averages 20.9" IVB with Trackman and we know that is a legitimate reading because Campbell was also at 20.5" in his start with Hawkeye. The fastball comes from a higher release with Hawkeye putting him at 6.13' on average and a very medial horizontal release at 0.6' (with Hawkeye) that lets his 11" of tail play up. The pitch has incredible shape and should continue to miss a lot of bats at the next level.

The changeup is filthy and also warrants a plus grade. He throws it 12 MPH slower than the fastball with higher spin rates than the fastball. That is probably too much of a velocity difference to be optimal as he slows the arm a bit but it still has plus upside. Campbell gets 20 inches more drop with gravity, and has 17.7" HB. The pitch plays up from the medial release and he can throw it in the zone.

The breaking balls are fringy but have upside. The slider is the more effective of the two right now. He sits at 1" IVB and 6.8" of sweep to his gloveside. The pitch doesn’t get a ton of chases but still has some use. The curveball has elite vertical depth with -16.5" IVB and 7.7" of sweep to go with it. In the Hawkeye games it is even better with -17.7" IVB and 5.9" HB. So why is it only average pitch despite 97th percentile vertical movement?

The reason for that is velocity- the sole reason why Justin Campbell isn’t in the first round. The curveball sits at just 75.9 MPH right now and slow curves don’t perform at the maor league level with a few exceptions. The slider sits at just 81 MPH. The changeup is at 79.5 MPH. The fastball has well-below average velocity with him sitting at just 91.5 MPH on average.

If Campbell can add velocity he will soar up this list. Given that he is 6'7", a lot of scouts think it’s likely that he will do exactly that. I’m a bit more skeptical. Campbell has a poor loading mechanism and doesn’t rotate all that well. You need to make some fairly significant mechanical changes to see that much more velocity out of him.

The good news is Campbell throws a lot of strikes and has seen major gains in his batted ball profile this year. I think he is probably still a back of the rotation arm with upside, I just don’t know how likely that upside is to be manifested so he just misses a first-round grade from me.

44. SS Max Martin, Moorestown High School

Max Martin is a tooled up shortstop prospect. He’s somewhat lacking in raw power but he still should get close to average. The bat speed is above-average and he gets solid separation in his swing. The bat path is often optimal for creating elevation. He’s slightly built and has some barrel accuracy problems but there is real power upside here.

The hit tool is the calling card though. He has a very quick bat path (Also hurts power some) with explosive hand speed and has never struggled at all with even triple digit velocity (Chase Petty). His bat path is flexible and Martin loves to adjust his swing to fit where the pitch is and what kind it is. There’s some risk in a prep with a flush reliant approach because pitch recognition is so much harder at any other level but I’m still comfortable betting on his hit tool.

I really like Max Martin at shortstop and above him projected as an above-average defender. Martin is a plus runner who also shows the ability to move to both sides. The range is impressive and the actions are more than sufficient to stick at short. Martin throws has fairly average throw strength but I still have him as a 55 arm because of his accuracy and the ability he has to throw from multiple platforms.

Martin is kind of just a do everything prep. It’s a profile that would go very high after three years of performing at Rutgers but given the lack of elite upside, it’s hard to get behind him in round one right now. He’s a safer type of prospect in a demographic where the word safe is often completely inaccurate. I like the profile but not quite enough for a first round grade.

45. CF/RF Colby Thomas, Mercer

Colby Thomas rounds out this crop of college outfielders who hit the ball hard but have major flaws that create massive amounts of risk. The risk with Thomas is kind of beyond his control as a large part of it is simply that Thomas has not faced great pitching at Mercer. The other part is that Thomas still has below-average contact rates at 72.4% but like with Beck, that’s mostly because of the approach. He’s running an 83.3% contact rate on in-zone pitches but chases 30.2% of the time so he still has whiffs. The other concern is that Thomas has a popout problem.

Of course, to balance things out, Thomas has the best raw power. His max EV is 116.6 MPH and his top 8th EV is also in the 96th percentile. Colby Thomas also has a 90th percentile groundball rate in trackman games as well and also has the second highest batted ball spin rates in the country (Average backspin%). He’s going to produce high amounts of in-game power. As long as he makes enough contact to get to it that is. Thomas is a plus runner with a plus arm who is a fringe fit in centerfield. There is only really one tool here but it’s a spectacular one and there is the hope of more even if a boatload of risk is also present.

46. SS Anthony Silva, Clark High School

Anthony Silva had earned a first round grade from me leading up to the combine but he tested poorly in the events we can see the results from so he’s fallen. His stock was in large part based on incredible athleticism so him running a 3.8 30 yd dash is a bit scary. He also had the third lowest max barrel speed at the event. I sincerely hope that Silva was injured or something and that’s why he flopped so hard.

Anthony Silva had some of the best athletic testing in the class the previous summer. He has 99th percentile agility and 90th percentile speed paired with 90th percentile core strength, and even decent power from his lower half with a 65th percentile CMJ. The bat speed is at least average (inconsistent) and given the athletic testing it was easy to imagine him optimizing his mechanics to unlock more power. That picture is a little murkier now.

I still like Anthony Silva but it’s a lot more hit tool dependent now. He ran an 82% contact rate over the summer (Sourced so it’s a larger sample) with just a 21% chase rate. He struck out just 7% of the time as a senior. He has a quick bat with a concise bat path and shows the ability to pick up on spin. He’s still very likely to play shortstop as he has a plus arm and is probably still relatively agile. I also have always liked the actions. His stock took a hit at the combine but the upside remains and I still like him in the second round.

47. SS/2B Mikey Romero, Orange Lutheran High School

On the other side of the room, Mikey Romero probably improved his stock more than anyone else at the combine. He’s a hit first middle infielder who flashed some signs of raw power in the past with above-average speed in everything but the pelvic rotation but at the combine things just clicked. Romero had the fastest max barrel speed there at 84 MPH. He also had the sixth farthest hit so it wasn’t all ineffective contact.

I still have it as below-average game power because he prioritizes going to the other way with an early (late? Do you judge it on swing timing or how early in the swing it is?) connection point that causes the power to play down- and now that I think about it, might have caused the bat speed to look worse than it was in previous smaller sample showcases. The point is, there is at least above-average raw power here.

Romero makes contact at a very high rate- especially against pitches in the strike zone. His swing is short and punchy which leads to him hitting velocity and he shows feel for recognizing spin. The bat stays on plane for a while and he shows the ability to adjust to what he is seeing to avoid being beat multiple times. The barrel stays in the zone so the contact window is longer too. He’s a spray hitter with a bit too many mishits for my taste but it’s still a plus hit tool.

I think Romero will probably not stick at shortstop but he should be a good second baseman with his clean actions and hands. If Romero goes in the first round I will have no complaints but I think he’s probably still just a round two guy for me because he’s only an average athlete.

48. SP Blade Tidwell, Tennessee

The fastball headlines Blade Tidwell’s arsenal. He will sit at 95.5 MPH and touch as high as 99 MPH from the left-handed side. The fastball has above-average vertical movement at 18.8" IVB on average and good horizontal life as well from an 11:00 spin axis. The angle isn’t fantastic from a 6.2' RelHeight and 2.3' RelSide but the pitch still projects as a plus given the velocity and movement pairing.

The slider is a plus projection as well, even if the present day value is a bit lower. He has a little over 10" of sweep with 5" IVB in the present that plays up from a somewhat wide horizontal release. He has feel to locate his slider in the zone with some consistency and can occasionally backdoor it. The pitch only sits at 84 MPH but given his feel for creating lift with the slider, he’s the ideal candidate to add velocity and transition to a wipeout slutter hybrid pitch. You could also go the other way and subtract for more depth but I think it plays better off of the fastball as a cutter and it would also help set up a very fringy changeup without much depth.

Blade Tidwell has first round caliber stuff and throws strikes. If it wasn’t for workload/health concerns he would earn a first round grade but those are pretty significant concerns. Tidwell has dealt with shoulder trouble and isn’t pitching deeper than the fifth inning most starts. He’s also usually pitching just once every six days. He only threw 39 innings over 13 appearances.

There are warranted questions on if the premium velocity will hold up over a larger workload and that is a lot of the appeal of Tidwell’s stuff- premium velocity. If Tidwell can’t maintain his velocity then what is he? It’s 55–60 movement from a sub-optimal angle. You need the velocity for that to play in a two-pitch arsenal. There is also significant health risk here that has to be considered.

Blade Tidwell is probably worth the risk but he’s an early round two guy for me because that risk exists. He’ll probably still go round one given the weaker crop of college arms and it’ll be a perfectly fine selection because the upside is loud. He’s more of a project than a plug and play ace but he’s a great arm talent nevertheless.

49. SP Kumar Rocker, Tri-City Valleycats

Kumar Rocker went #10 overall to the Mets and failed to sign last year because of some medical concerns. My understanding of the situation is that it had less to do with UCL damage (That was there though) and more to do with the fact that Kumar Rocker hid that he had multiple PRP injections from the team (And his agent?) before the draft. He’s also had shoulder surgery since then and that hurts his stock too.

I wrote about Kumar Rocker’s stuff in detail last year when he was my #25 prospect in the class. His stuff hasn’t moved up at all for having more velocity in short starts that he only made every five days. The mechanics are the same from what I can tell and these starts were engineered to make him look as good as possible rather than reflect where he actually is.

So why is Kumar Rocker down thirty spots from last year? If you read my report on him last year I repeatedly talked about how Kumar Rocker’s delivery creates injury risk and gives him trouble maintaining his top-end velocities. I then said I was choosing to rank him off of the track record of clean health instead. That track record no longer exists and maybe never did. There is long term risk of him breaking down and the stuff is only good rather than elite right now.

I get why teams are interested in round one and I don’t even hate it if it’s under slot (Likely will be since Rocker has very little leverage to refuse a second time) but he’s not a first round caliber arm for me. He’s getting buzz as early as #3 overall and I kind of see it but the risk feels way too high for what is unlikely to ever be more than a mid-tier #3 starter ceiling and is likely just a back-end guy.

50. SS/IF Josh Kasevich, Oregon

Josh Kasevich has a 92.2% contact rate this year and was at 91.1% last year. There is a track record of making contact. Kasevich chased just 19% of the time in 2021 and 19.9% this year. He also has a Max EV of 111.2 MPH and plays shortstop. That probably sounds like a candidate to go #1 overall but things are a lot more complicated than those three data points make it out to be.

Josh Kasevich currently projects as a slightly better Nick Madrigal. His contact is all empty because none of it comes in the air. Kasevich has an 8th percentile outfield flyball rate this year according to FaBIO. Only 12.5% of his outfield flyballs are hit hard. His hardest hit ball with a launch angle of even 20° is just 101.2 MPH. Josh Kasevich also only pulls the ball 39% of the time which doesn’t help the power issues.

The swing needs to be overhauled to see any in-game power. Kasevich has a flat path that doesn’t create loft and a deep connection point that makes it impossible to hit to the pullside with any power. You risk the contact skills by changing the swing and it’s a risk I would take. Kasevich right now is a low impact bat who won’t even hit for that high of an average because he so frequently mishits the ball at extreme launch angles.

I’ve also been told that his defense at shortstop is a bit fringy and he might have to move to either second or third. The actions look really good at first glance but Oregon uses a turf infield that makes fielding grounders way easier than it is for most. Most of his highlight reel plays are in home games and he’s more fringe off the turf.

I think Kasevich is likely to be a low impact major league contributor but there’s a 5% chance everything clicks and he’s perhaps the best hitter from the draft this year. I really like him in the second round and could totally get on board with Kasevich in the first as well. He’s a very talented player but a huge developmental project if you want anything actually impactful.

51. 1B Tyler Locklear, VCU

Tyler Locklear leads all of college baseball in wOBA over the last two years. He’s a first baseman at the next level but he hits. The contact rates went from average to a plus even if the contact quality dipped a tad in response. Locklear still has 70 raw power and now makes contact. It’s a scary combination, even from a slightly smaller conference in the A10.

Tyler Locklear has a Max EV of 113.8 MPH with a 97th percentile Top 8th EV. The mishits were up this year with a new knack for popping the ball up that developed as he sold out some for more contact. The line drive rates are low and he only has average feel to elevate. There is 70 raw power so it still lead to a 96th percentile barrel rate but I think the power projects slightly below the elite raw power. I’m not as high on the BABIP skills as I probably should be given the power but he’s still going to be really good on contact.

The hit tool has some risk but I don’t think it’s significant. Tyler Lockler pretty much never chases- he’s at just 15% over the last two years. Locklear has some minor troubles with velocity in a small sample and the track record of making contact isn’t great. He rarely swings and misses as a whole though and whiffed just 18% of the time against Power 5 pitching in his career. He has very little defensive value but he has hit so far and he should continue to do so at a high level. I’m not as confident in him being an elite hitter as Melendez or even Berry but he’s still worth a second round pick.

52. SP Robby Snelling, McQueen High School

Robby Snelling has shades of Frank Mozzicato in the profile. The fastball sits just 90–93 MPH and only tops out at 95 MPH but there is tons of projection in the frame and Snelling moves well on the mound. The pitches come from a 5.4' release height and he gets above-average ride on the fastball as he sat at 19" IVB over the summer and also got 10" of tailing action. The fastball should have a very flat VAA and miss a lot of bats as he gets stronger.

The breaking ball is a weapon. He sits 77–80 MPH and will flash spectacular depth; even if he only averages like ~-5" IVB. The pitch has some sweeping action and it plays up from the slightly steep horizontal approach angle. The curveball has shown more depth this spring too so it’s easy to argue bumping it up to a plus pitch. There is a changeup as well with fantastic arm speed and some feel but the current shape is often terrible.

Robby Snelling on top of having two good pitches with optimal release traits also projects for above-average control. He has a great delivery and plus athleticism. He already throws strikes and I don’t really see that changing much. Robby Snelling gets a second round grade but he could definitely go earlier if one team falls in love with the projection as they did with Mozzicato. I don’t even have a problem with him going in round one despite this ranking. I will note that I’ve heard he’s going to be a very tough sign as he apparently has a three-year NIL deal worth seven figures lined up if he makes it to LSU.

53. SP Tyler Gough, JSerra Catholic High School

Tyler Gough is probably the most underrated prep arm in the entire draft. I understand the reasons for the lack up hype but I disagree that they provide close to enough reason to push Gough out of the first three rounds. Tyler Gough was hurt for most of his senior season and when he came back he pitched almost exclusively in relief. He’s very clearly got a starter’s repertoire and decent enough command but he pitched in relief due to health concerns and no one scouts prep relievers. He dominated in the combine and had the most electrifying pitch data perhaps in the entire prep class last summer.

The fastball only sits in the low nineties but he has 20.9" IVB and throws from a 5.2' vertical release so it will still completely fuck you up. The pitch really plays at the top of the zone and is an elite offering. He dominated with an upper seventies curve at the combine that flashes elite depth but is highly inconsistent. The slutter in the mid eighties has good carry and some cutting action that should play up off of the fastball. The changeup flashes elite tailing action from one of the most medial release points in the entire league. There is legit secondaries with an elite fastball and enough strikes to start. I would gladly give Gough seven figures to sign with my team.

54. SP Parker Messick, Florida State

Parker Messick is another arm who needs more velocity to profile in the majors but otherwise has first round caliber stuff. The problem is that Messick is a below-average athlete, fully bulked up, and with only average arm speed so it’s a lot harder to envision velocity gains. There are some mechanical tweaks there to improve the timing but the gains from those will likely be more minimal.

The fastball would be extremely successful if Messick got to even league average velocity. He’s a left handed starting pitcher who throws from a 5.28' release height and gets slightly below average vertical movement (~16.5" IVB in road games, and 15" in Hawkeye games). Messick also has 10.5" of arm side movement from a 1.51' horizontal release. He only sits at 91 MPH but the shape is great and would give him a very flat VAA with the elevated fastball.

The slow sweeper has fantastic shape. He has just 1.3" IVB and also generates 10" of sweep on average. The only problem is that he sits at 79.7 MPH so it won’t miss very many bats. There is also a slower sweeper at 75.9 MPH with -4.1" IVB and 13.3" HB. Neither of them is all that good right now but both variants of the sweeping breaking ball could be good with more velocity.

The changeup is a plus as is and wouldn’t be hurt by improved arm strength. Messick sits at 82.2 MPH- roughly ~9 MPH lower than the fastball. He kills some spin and throws on a 2:45 spin axis. The result is just 3.8" IVB and 15.6" HB. He has an elite feel for locating the changeup in the strike zone and it dominates there with a 34% in-zone whiff rate. He also gets chases 45.8% of the time with the cambio.

Parker Messick is a strike thrower with very promising pitch shape across the board. He needs more velocity to pop up and be what he can be, but there is still a floor here. Messick right now projects as a slightly below-average starting pitcher. I think fixing the velocity will take time but the upside is high if he does fix it and I’d invest the requisite resources to try and find it.

55. RF/CF Tommy Specht, Wahlert Catholic High School*

Tommy Specht was never really challenged at Wahlert Catholic seeing as it was a 3A school. He was challenged in PG Tournament play though and rose to the occasion with a .451 batting average in 91 PA. He opted out of his senior season this year to train and then participated in the Prospects League against a bunch of college players using wooden bats. He has once again risen to the occasion hitting .294/.405/.412 in 42 PA for the Lumberkings at the time of me writing this with just a 16.7% strikeout rate and as many walks as strikeouts.

Tommy Specht has plus raw power. He had some of the highest exit velocities in the class last summer and he had 90th percentile bat speed at the MLB draft combine. He has an explosive lower half with the third-best broad jump at the combine (As of day two, more players tested afterward) and has added some upper body strength in the last year or so. He tested a standard deviation above-average in the CMJ at the combine as well. There are some rotational consistency issues- Specht’s torso can fire early at times (Especially common against velocity in my looks) but that is something that should be ironed out in time.

Not to mention, Specht has a steep VBA that should make it easy for him to adopt a more lift heavy approach. The attack angles aren’t optimal right now as he frequently swings over pitches and tops them but eventually he’ll elevate. He has a deeper connection point that leads to some difficulty pulling the ball. The game power is behind the raw power but it is still solid.

I’m a believer in Tommy Specht’s hit tool. Detractors will claim that he is a bit stiff but I really don’t see it in any of my looks from the last month. He is short to the ball and hits it hard consistently. He shows some feel to recognize spin and is continually making contact no matter who he is facing. There is an ease to his game and he keeps his composure in the box. He’s just a good baseball player.

Tommy Specht is a fringy fit in centerfield. He ran a 3.7 second 30 yd dash at the combine and has seemingly lost a step in the last year as he added strength. He was already a fringy fit in centerfield to begin with so it’s probably a right field profile now. He’ll be a great one though as Specht has one of the best outfield arms in the draft. He has thrown up to 99 MPH and has at least a dozen more throws topping 95 MPH. It’s premium arm strength and there’s solid accuracy and carry too.

Tommy Specht earns high marks for his makeup. He’s a very kind person who loves the game and works to better himself. Specht is very young for the class, turning 18 right after the draft, and he’s already shown the ability to compete with college level competition. His tools are loud and he can really hit. I like Tommy Specht in the second round range and could even talk myself into taking him higher. He’s probably not going to be drafted this high but if he falls to day two as most expect him to then he will be a steal.

56. SP Thomas Harrington, Campbell

Thomas Harrington is a hard player for me to value. I totally understand why people might have a first round grade on him and would be fine with selecting him there as long as there is a plan in place to raise the ceiling. Thomas Harrington throws five pitches and all of them are fine. If his velo were to uptick at all then he would move up the ranks considerably because his shapes are all solid albeit unspectacular.

The fastball sits 92.5 MPH and can touch 96 MPH. He throws two variants of fastball with one a four-seamer that has 18" IVB and the other a sinker with 16.6" of tail and mediocre sink at 13.5" IVB. The fastball comes from a low release at 5.6' feet on average and a more moderate horizontal release at 1.54'. He struggled to get the fastball at the top of the zone but has no problem filling the zone at least. I think given how his teammates also pitch down, the lack of fastballs up in the zone might be deliberate and easily fixable. The four-seam is also fairly flat up in the zone and should miss bats. This is an above-average pitch that could take off with a velocity boost that I don’t really see right now.

The breaking balls are more fringe-average. The slider sits at 83 MPH with some nasty bite as he averages 8.9" of sweep. The pitch is dragged down though by below-average vertical depth. On the bright side, he has above-average command of the slider. It’s the better of the two. The curve sits at 79.4 MPH with -11" IVB and the same amount of horizontal movement. The feel is more fringe but there’s a solid pitch here- especially with more velocity.

The changeup is interesting. He does not have the best separation from the fastball only averaging 7 MPH less than the heater but that’s still fine enough. He kills spin and gets 16.6" of tailing action to go with decent depth at 6.4" IVB. The pitch doesn’t really work off the sinker but I think it might play off of the four-seam fastball. Oh, and it did log a 24.6% Swinging-Strike rate this year.

The primary draw of Thomas Harrington is that he has very advanced command over his fastball. He doesn’t walk batters and generally avoids the heart of the plate. He’s a pitchability type with solid enough stuff an if you raise the floor of that stuff, he could take off. I don’t love pitchability types in general but Harrington is a good version of the profile.

I initially had Thomas Harrington ranked #100 and then while writing about my Draft Philosophy, I noticed my hypocrisy. If Thomas Harrington was a high school arm with the exact same stuff he had now, he would be a first round talent.

The fastball shape is solid with desirable release traits. Harrington has great feel for a changeup, kills spin, and is a natural supinator. There is projection there. He has feel for spinning a breaking ball and creating movement either vertically or horizontally on the said pitch.

He checks most of the markers for projecting on a prep arm’s stuff quality evolving. Does Thomas Harrington being in college (Already having decent present day stuff) make those projections no longer applicable? I can’t say that it does. I don’t know exactly how to develop Harrington- aside from a focus on strength development but there is clear upside here and a floor as a pitchability type.

57. Caden Dana, Don Bosco High School

Caden Dana is one of the more underappreciated prep arms in the class. His fastball and curveball pairing have obscene amounts of vertical movement and you can figure out the rest later when that is your foundation.

The fastball sits 92–95 MPH with some projection left in his 6'4" frame and above-average extension that lets the velocity play up. However, as I already alluded to, the calling card here is movement. Caden Dana averaged 20.8" IVB on his fastball over the summer. He also had 13.7" of tailing action on the fastball. You have to adjust for seam height so it’s not that crazy and a 6.32' release height hurts a tad. Even still, this is pretty easily a plus fastball.

The curveball is a hammer. He only sits 76–78 MPH but has an elite ability to create vertical depth from an already high release point. The pitch had -15.6" IVB on average over the summer and just 5.8" of sidespin. The angle is awesome with both a high release and a very medial one at 0.88' release side that also helps a 12–6 curves like his play up. The two look fairly similar out of the hand and break in opposite directions so both grade out as plus pitches.

Dana has introduced a slider in the spring that I’ve heard very positive things about. It’s a slutter hybrid pitch that ranges from 83–90 MPH depending on the outing and appears to have solid horizontal action. I have it as an average grade without the specs on it but I know some people who think it’s now his best pitch. The changeup is fringe with solid separation but poor shape. You can project on it some because he has a quick arm action that helps with deception but it’s probably a below-average pitch.

The control comes and goes for Dana. He repeats his delivery and is a good athlete with an optimal frame. There are some mechanical concerns that might lead to future injuries but his mechanics are also good for creating velocity so you take what you can get. The FB/CB combo with a potential slutter is why you buy in on Dana and it’s enough for me to put a second-round grade on him.

58. CF Mason Neville, Basic High School

Mason Neville is one of the more unheralded prep bats who deserves a lot more attention than he gets. I would be fine with using a first-round pick on him if it was required. The tools are loud and it’s an easy profile to get excited about.

The power is explosive. Mason Neville has some of the best bat speed in the entire draft with 99th percentile showings in the perfect game showcases and 98th percentile in impact momentum as well. He has a plus feel to elevate too with a steep vertical angle and consistently runs positive attack angles. The power should be a plus in terms of game output during his prime.

Mason Neville has an interesting hit tool. He has made contact at a high rate in high school but struggled with whiffs against horizontal movement during the showcase games. The swing has some violence but the bat path is generally efficient. There’s some bobble but the hands are good and he shows the ability to make adjustments. I have the contact skills as below-average but it is by no means bad. He’s a big line drive hitter who avoids mishits so it’s still an average hit tool though.

Mason Neville is at least a plus runner. He has posted 70 grade run times but given the frame, it’s fairly likely he will lose a step or two. Mason Neville also has plus arm strength and good carry on his throws. His arm slot is unorthodox but he’s an outfielder so I don’t actually care that much. It works and that is what matters. I think Neville can play a stellar centerfield and I like the bat a lot. He’s worth spending seven figures to buy out of his Arizona commitment.

59. 2B/SS Tanner Schobel, Virginia Tech.

Tanner Schobel is not a conventional player. His tools are fairly mid but the production is the opposite and I think it has a relatively high chance of translating into a quality major leaguer.

Tanner Schobel does not have a lot of raw power. His career high EV is just 106.5 MPH and his Top 8th EV of 102.6 MPH is basically equivalent to the average college player. The game power is a lot better than the raw though. Schobel has a 92nd percentile groundball rate which helps a lot. What helps, even more, is the fact that he has a 98th percentile Pulled Flyball rate. He also has above-average spin rates on his batted balls and the majority of them have backspin. The game power plays well above the raw power as a result. I’m not projecting more than average power given the 40 grade raw juice but it is average power.

Tanner Schobel stands out for the plus contact skills. He has an 89% contact rate in the zone this year and an 84.7% contact rate. He also chases just 18.5% of the time. The on-base skills are very real and there’s a chance at power. He’s a fringy shortstop due to a below-average arm but even from a second baseman, this profile should play- assuming the power doesn’t completely vanish with the transition to wood (It was down slightly in the cape). He should be solid value as a second or third round pick who won’t be a star but should provide some value.

60. SP/RP Carson Palmquist, Miami

Everything about Palmquist screams reliever. The delivery is very relieverish and the pitch data made me think reliever at first. Yet, I actually think he can crack it in the rotation. Sure, he might have lost 3 MPH off the fastball in transitioning to the rotation but… Carson Palmquist is better as a reliever than a starter but he can be a starter. He throws strikes at a high level and has a solid batted ball profile. He can miss bats at a high clip and has the weapons to beat hitters of both handednesses.

The fastball is an above-average pitch even if he only sits at 90 MPH. The draw is obviously the angle. He throws from a 4.5' release height and a 2.7' horizontal release point. The pitch has only 12.7" IVB but it still has a -4.2° VAA because of the low release. He also has elite horizontal movement with 16.7" HB on average.

The changeup is absolutely disgusting even if it’s possibly undermined some by his slot. The pitch has 17.5" of arm side movement with average vertical depth at 10 MPH slower than the fastball. The pitch is above-average and had a 32% Swinging-Strike rate this year so maybe I am underselling it.

The slider is what some scouts consider Palmquist’s best pitch but I’m a bit lower on it. The pitch sits at 77 MPH with a very high gyro angle and more cutterish shape without the velocity. The pitch only has four inches of sweep but given the low release and glove side command it still plays an average pitch. Palmquist isn’t conventional and might be a reliever but he has three pitches and command so why not give him a chance to start?

61. 2B/CF/SS Nick Morabito, Gonzaga High School

Nick Morabito has a lot of helium after a strong spring and an also impressive performance at the combine. Morabito is the closest thing to a Nick Yorke (Not profile but pedigree/attractive elements with risk that causes him to fly under the radar) in this year’s draft and if we’re predicting an out-of-nowhere prep to be a first round pick, Morabito is my man.

Nick Morabito is an athlete. He ran a 3.65 second 30 yd dash at the combine and has been clocked with some 70 grade run times in the spring. The arm strength is below-average which has second base as his most likely destination but scouts highest on the athleticism often have him in centerfield. Despite, the below-average arm, Morabito has a fringe chance of sticking at shortstop because his actions are good and he has plus range. He’s not really a shortstop with a below-average arm but it’s not impossible.

I really like the bat too. The hit tool is a plus. He is short to the ball with a whippy barrel and a handy swing that can make adjustments. He’s taken Trevor Bauer deep before, and is constantly peppering line drives all over the field. The power is blooming. He has added strength to his lower half this spring and showed off his above-average bat speed at the combine. He often hits the ball in the air and has the power to do some damage. There is a lack of track record here and he has some positional risk but I like the tools and buy in on the ability to hit. He’s easily worth a second round pick in my opinion.

62. CF/RF Henry Bolte, Palo Alto High School

Last year I pushed James Wood down to #92 on my draft board because of a major whiff risk despite freakish tools. James Wood is probably the best player in the entirety of the 2021 draft at this point. Bolte has some similar markers and in an endeavor to avoid repeating my mistakes, Bolte is getting a bit more credit despite the risk.

Henry Bolte has good pitch recognition and solid timing. The bat path is fairly efficient and he shows the ability to recognize spin. He has solid timing on fastballs too and isn’t really out in front of offspeed. The problem is that Bolte just misses with the bat. It’s poor bat control that leads to him swinging through stuff in the zone too frequently. The Padres made a few adjustments to James Wood and he now has an 87% in-zone contact rate.

If a team sees the same adjustments as possible for Bolte then they could give him the first round money (2.5MM+) he is reportedly demanding. The tools are a bit worse than Wood but he’s still a plus runner, with a plus arm and 70 grade raw power. He gets a second round grade from me but if you have a plan to develop the contact skills then he is worth a lot more.

63. 3B/SS Mac Horvath, North Carolina

Mac Horvath’s listed birthday on Baseball Reference is wrong so he’s not listed on a lot of draft rankings this year. He actually turns 21 on July 22nd, and as such is eligible this year. The bat is incredible and he’s a very good fielder at the hot corner who has a none zero shot of moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop.

The hit tool is not particularly good. Mac Horvath has fairly average contact rates with him sitting at just 76.8% over the last two years and 82.5% in the zone. It’s also worth noting that he is at least above-average against both velocity and breaking balls. Horvath still rarely strikes out too and works a lot of walks in the process because he is only chasing 14.5% of pitches this year and swinging at 65.9% of in-zone pitches over the last two years.

The BABIP skills suck though. He has a career .263 BABIP with North Carolina and his expected stats (Sourced) say he’s only slightly underperformed a .289 xBABIP based on his contact quality in trackman games. Horvath is a pull heavy hitter who has a popup problem and hits a lot of outfield flyballs which is a boom or bust strategy. He still has elite OBPs because he has an amazing approach but the batting average isn’t ever going to be there.

The power is the real calling card offensively. Horvath has just a Max EV of 109.1 MPH and an 82nd percentile Top 8th EV. So how in the world is the power the calling card? Elite game power optimization. Horvath has a 31% groundball rate over the last two years which is in the 91st percentile. That power combined with his feel to elevate leads to a 96th percentile barrel rate this year. But Horvath goes deeper still. He constantly pulls the ball and that lets the power play up, he tops off his profile with a 93rd percentile backspin%. The game power is a plus skill even if the raw is a tick below.

Mac Horvath is a bit of a three-true outcomes profile who should be a frustrating but good hitter. He’ll provide that offense while competing for gold gloves at third base. He has easy plus arm strength with plus arm utility as well. His hands, range, and actions all grade out highly. He’s incredibly slick at third and could even probably play shortstop. The bat and glove is a potent combo and for me, that is enough to earn Horvath a second or third round grade.

64. RF Ryan Clifford, Pro5 Baseball Academy

Ryan Clifford was the #1 High School hitter in the entirety of the 2022 class according to both Baseball America and PBR during their 2019 and 2020 rankings. His development has stalled a bit over the last few years but the upside is the same as it always has been, even if the risk is higher now.

The bat is incredible. He has a cinematic swing that is effective too. Clifford is short to the ball with a clean bat path that should produce consistent quality contact. He has hit for contact everywhere but one summer and with team USA he only hit .200 on a big stage except he also only struck out 16% of the time so how harshly are we dinging him? The swing looks fantastic and I still believe in the hit tool.

The power hasn’t progressed as we once believed it would but it’s still developed into a plus tool. Clifford had the second hardest hit ball in the (prep) Hawkeye showcase games at 109.5 MPH and it was the only batted ball at 107+ MPH with a launch angle above 0°. He has a somewhat limited feel to elevate given the flatter bat path but it is plus bat speed and really good strength. He already has high-end exit velocities and should only get stronger with time.

Ryan Clifford has a cannon of an arm in right field that makes him likely stick even if he’s only a below-average runner. The defensive value is somewhat limited but he’s an incredible hitter. Ryan Clifford’s makeup is off the charts. He’s incredibly responsible and has a relentless work ethic. His teammates all rave about him and he’s a natural-born leader. When you combine the elite makeup with the already present baseball skills, it’s really hard not to love Clifford. He’s committed to Vanderbilt and will likely cost a pretty penny but he’s easily worth seven figures in my opinion.

65. SP Marcus Johnson, Duke

If Marcus Johnson threw 5 MPH harder he would be Luis Severino. That’s slightly hyperbolic and obviously a really tall ask but take a look at this table of their pitch movement side by side.

The release is closer in line with 2018 Severino but most the differences can be explained away pretty easily. The fastball of both of them are on the same axis but the college ball has slightly higher seams and Johnson has slightly better spin rates. IVB is also partially dependent on velocity- it’s easier to post higher numbers at low velocity. The changeup is 7.1 MPH slower than the heater for Severino and 7.04 MPH slower for Johnson. Johnson gets slightly more tailing action but the pitch is largely the same. The slider has some variance but it’s still comparable in shape. So just add 5 MPH and instant Ace!

Can Marcus Johnson do that? Probably not but he should be able to get a little more out of his 6'6" and 200 lbs frame. He won’t be Sevy but he should still be an effective MLB arm. Johnson has poor fastball deployment right now but he can at least throw strikes and you’d hope that doesn’t fall off too much with a revamped attack plan on the mound. Johnson isn’t an Ace unless a miracle occurs but I think he offers both floor and ceiling in the second to third round range.

66. 3B/SS Tucker Toman, Hammond High School

Tucker Toman switch hits and that torpedos his draft stock as he would be significantly better if he only hit left-handed. Toman is quite honestly my least favorite form of (good) draft prospects. There’s a bunch of 50s in the profile with a high makeup that could easily raise the floor and with one small gain, he becomes someone to watch out for, just right now there is very limited excitement.

The contact rates are strong as a lefty with a concise swing that he repeats. He has the ability to put the ball in the air from the left-handed side with efficient rotation and above-average bat speed. There is some power from the right-handed side as well but it is less refined. Toman is a fringe fit at shortstop who seems likely to be above-average at the hot corner. I can’t muster up too much excitement for him but I get the appeal and am totally down to draft him with a ~1.5MM price tag. These types of players have a tendency to outperform their tools.

67. SP Ian (JR) Ritchie Jr., Bainbridge High School

I’m going to get bullied by a few friends of mine for having JR Ritchie so high. The fastball sits in the dead zone and he doesn’t really have bat missing stuff. There are a few standout traits here though that make him worth a second round pick.

The fastball sits 92–94 MPH and has hit as high as 97 MPH with above-average extension. Ritchie moves really well and there is velocity projection there as he grows into more strength despite a smaller frame. The fastball movement admittedly sucks. Ritchie averaged just 14.7 IVB (Non-adjusted) and 10.5 HB. The pitch sits in the dead zone and probably should get hammered. There is hope though in the form of a 5.41 release height that could still give him solid VAAs up. I also think he has some promising sinker traits if you choose to go that route.

There are technically two breaking balls but they often bleed into only one pitch and I expect that he’ll settle in as a hybrid sweeper guy sitting 80–83 MPH. His breaking balls averaged -3.1" IVB and 8.2" of sweeping action over the summer. The sweep plays up a bit from a 2.2' horizontal release and I think given the solid velo and shape it projects as above-average.

I also have the changeup listed as above-average. Ritchie Jr. kills 10 MPH on his fastball and a few hundred revolutions as well. He has 10.9" IVB which admittedly isn’t great given the fastball but he also sits at 17.5 inches of armside fade and flashes up to 20" pretty regularly. The pitch should still miss bats due to the arm speed and fade even if he lacks in depth oftentimes.

JR Ritchie throws strikes at an above-average rate and has three pitches of decent quality. There is velocity here and paired with a low release that has me higher on the fastball than the shape. The makeup is reportedly fantastic. Ritchie needs some serious work to be anything more than a #5 starter but he has upside and is also a relatively safe prep arm.

68. RP/SP Reggie Crawford, Connecticut

Reggie Crawford has thrown 20.1 innings in the last three years. He faced 83 batters and struck out 47% of them in those games. The fastball data is exceptional. He sits 96–99 MPH with spin rates averaging 2500 RPMs from the left handed side. He has 17.5" IVB and 14" HB from a 5.4' release height. The pitch has legitimate 80 grade upside if he somehow manages to hold his velocity. The slider is a plus pitch as well with sweeper shape sitting 85–87 MPH most of his outings.

There is absolutely a scenario where Crawford winds up the best player in the draft- the stuff is that good. That being said, there is massive amounts of risk given the lack of time actually being healthy and the small sample nature of what he’s shown. Some shades of Garrett Crochet in the profile.

I’ve also seen some people throw around the idea that Reggie Crawford has the best makeup of any draft prospect this century. Don’t be at all surprised or upset if he goes to your favorite team in the first round. I can’t rank him that high because there are so many unknowns still with him but the talent is obvious even from a distance and don’t get upset when your team takes him much higher than this. He’s an electric player with star upside.

69. RF Anthony Hall, Oregon

Anthony Hall is one of my favorite hitters in the draft. He has an above-average hit tool and above-average power with an above-average approach. He’s not some defensive stalwart but the dude just hits.

The contact rates are exceptional within the strike zone as I have him down as whiffing just 7.9% of the time this year on in-zone pitches. Perhaps more impressively, there are zero whiffs against pitches 93+. Anthony Hall also never chases breaking balls and doesn’t whiff in the zone against them either. He’s aggressive in pursuing the hanging breaking ball and does serious damage on them, while also rarely chasing anything but changeups and sinkers.

The power is present in games despite below-average groundball rates. Hall has a Max EV of 110.9 MPH and plus hard-hit and barrel rates. He pulls his flyballs at an extremely high rate and the majority of his hard-contact is hit in the air. He has strong HR/FB rates and I don’t think him developing loft is all that unreasonable. Hall just does it all at the plate and I will take that at any position.

70. SP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy

Jackson Ferris is a top twenty player in the draft according to MLB Pipeline; even Baseball America and Prospects Live have ranked towards the back of the first round. I am considerably lower on Ferris for a variety of reasons.

I see the appeal in Jackson Ferris for sure. He’s a lefty who sits 92–95 MPH and touches 97 MPH. He has feel for spin and an optimal frame for your stereotypical starting pitching prospect. The thing is the fastball shape is just very mediocre. He only averaged 17.6" IVB over the summer circuit with 11.8" HB. That is below-average movement relative to the event. Ferris has very inconsistent fastball shape that needs serious refinement. There is plus and even elite upside here but it’s not anything close to a certainty he reaches it.

The secondaries underwhelmed me. The curve is decent with feel for spin sitting 76–79 MPH but it only as average depth and 11" of sweep on average with sub-optimal release traits for a curveball. There is upside given spin and the arm strength but again, it’s a fringier pitch. The changeup is in a similar boat although I like it slightly more. He has mid separation with some feel to kill spin and below-average depth. The pitch has 15.6" HB but it’s not like wow or anything. He also struggles with feel for the pitch.

I guess at the end of the day, I just don’t believe in Jackson Ferris’ stuff or that he will truly develop. He has the arm strength and general athleticism to make me regret that decision but I don’t really think you can separate him from the lengthy second tier of prep arms. He has good stuff but it’s not exceptional and the performance wasn’t really there this spring. He’s worth probably ~1.1MM and I doubt he’ll sign for so little. If a team takes him early I get it, but it’s not the gamble I would want to take.

71. RF/CF Roman Anthony, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School

Roman Anthony has major hit tool concerns but great tools. The hit tool has made strides this spring with just an 11.6% strikeout rate for Stoneman Douglas this year after being nearly double that rate the prior year. There is some issues with pitches down in the zone as his front leg gets stiff and limits his ability to adjust but I think given the athleticism, him improving the posture is very much possible. He does damage on anything up so the hit tool might have blast-off potential.

The power is the calling card though. Roman Anthony has electric bat speed and elite rotational ability. The pelvis can leak early but the ability to create separation on his best swings is among the best in the class. His power plays down given the lack of flexibility on pitches down but he should still hit for plus game power because it’s very loud raw power. He also has a fringe chance at playing centerfield with plus speed and arm strength. I think Anthony probably is a round two or three guy but you could sell me on the idea that giving him first-round money is a wise investment.

72. SP/RP Jacob Meador, Dallas Baptist

Jacob Meador profiles somewhat similarly to Bryce Miller last year. He’s a one-dimensional stuff arm with very loud stuff but major control and contact quality questions. I still think he’s worthy of a second or third round pick but like Miller, I expect he’ll fall to day three.

I should note that I actually like Meador more than I did Miller. The fastball is truly special. He sits at 93 MPH with fairly average spin rates but it is close to perfect spin efficiency. The pitch as a result gets 19.1" IVB and 12.4" HB. The pitch is truly made special though by the fact that Meador’s heater comes from a 5.33' release height. The VAA is obscene up in the zone. Naturally, like most college starters, he uses the fastball down the majority of the time. When he does elevate it though he has a 28% Swinging-Strike rate.

I also think the batted ball woes are in part because he tries to force pitching down so when he misses it’s over the heart of the plate and tattooed. If he goes up he’ll give up more flyballs but they’ll be at less optimal angles and he’ll give up fewer hits so it should all around serve as a better profile for him.

The secondaries are really strong too. The curveball sits at 77.8 MPH and has -14.8" IVB on average. That is ridiculous movement and he also gets 10.9" of sweep to bring it all together. I don’t know how well the shape actually works off the fastball and if he’ll get chases at the next level but in a vacuum, it is a metrically superb offering.

The changeup on the other hand should really work off of the fastball and it was his top pitch by swinging-strike rate this year. He sits at 86.3 MPH- just under 7 MPH slower than the heater. The pitch kills 300 RPMs but again, the movement is the calling card with a 2:00 spin axis and good shape. The pitch has just 9.7" IVB (Average depth) with heavy tailing action at 17" HB on average. The control over the pitch is limited but it still is another very strong pitch on data.

If Jacob Meador can find the zone at even a serviceable rate, he can be a high-impact arm. If Meador doesn’t learn to throw strikes then he might still be a high-impact arm in relief. He deserves every chance to stick as a starting pitcher given the three pitch mix but if he can’t add more dimensions he’s destined for a very strikeout dependent relief role. I’m totally comfortable gambling on this stuff in the first three rounds even if I understand why most people wouldn’t be.

73. SP Gabriel Hughes, Gonzaga

Gabriel Hughes has the most dominant fastball in the draft in terms of results with a 38% whiff rate while throwing 55% of them in the zone. He also has the least dominant fastball in terms of traits. The pitch has just 15" IVB from a 5.8' release height. The draw here is above-average but not even elite command- he struggles with location against LHB. The other draw is that he sits at 94.3 MPH and has plus extension. Evidently, fastball spam is a viable strategy in the WCC when you have good velocity. I don’t think it’ll be much more than average at the next level though.

The secondaries are more impressive than the fastball though. He sits at 82 MPH on the slider with -1" IVB and 9.2" of sweep. He can land the pitch for strikes and it earns itself an above-average projection but it’s nothing special by any means. The 2.3' relside does help it play up some though.

The changeup is my favorite pitch he throws. He sits 12 MPH slower than the fastball at just 82.3 MPH with only 6" less IVB but 17.5" of fade. This is particularly impactful because Hughes averages just 5.5" inches of fade on the fastball. He throws the two at essentially the same pitch height so there might be some Giolito elements at play letting them both play up but it can’t really be the reason when he uses the changeup less than 8% of the time. I like the changeup as an above-average pitch but the feel isn’t usually there so its’ not much more.

Hughes offers three pitches with command and gets groundball outs. I totally understand the appeal but he’s so fastball heavy right now despite the fastball being unlikely to translate, there will be growing pains as he switches to a more normal arsenal. He’s a somewhat safe back-of-the-rotation starter with limited upside who I hate but would take in the second or third round with much grumbling in the process.

74. 3B Zach Agnos, Eastern Carolina

Zach Agnos is one of my personal favorite college hitters in the draft. He has plus raw power with a 57.7% Hard-Hit rate this year which is in the 99th percentile of college players. His raw metrics are slightly less impressive 109.5 MPH Max EV and 105.6 MPH Top 8th EV (85th percentile) but he still has good power.

The groundball rate is only in the 25th percentile but given the frequent hard contact, Agnos has an 86th percentile barrel rate still at 9.7%. So why does Agnos only have seven homers this year? Part of that is that Agnos plays in the 14th most pitcher friendly D1 school (301 schools) but it also comes down to below-average spin characteristics and only pulling 7.4% of flyballs with Trackman. It’s probably easier to teach those things than power but it’s a bit of a warning sign.

The real appeal of Agnos though is his on-base skills. Agnos has an above-average contact rate sitting just over 80% and has an elite approach with just a 16.6% chase rate and a very high 74.2% Z-Swing% to go with it in trackman games. More particularly, Zach Agnos is the best breaking ball hitter in the entire draft by a pretty wide margin. The BABIP skills are more fine than elite despite the .407 BABIP this year. Most of his groundballs are hit at higher angles and he never pops up. He’s not a big line drive guy but he hits the ball to all fields and has 99th percentile hard-hit rates so it plays. Above-average hit tool with an elite approach that should see very high OBPs in his prime.

Zach Agnos is a fine third baseman with a plus arm that makes him a draftable relief prospect. He throws 94 MPH off the mound and gets carry on his throws across the diamond as well. There are some errors but he has enough range to stick and the bat will carry him to relevance. If he starts to get to the raw power in games, then he would take off. Based on how good the swing decisions are, I don’t think that is all that unlikely to occur.

75. SP Cole Phillips, Boerne High School

Tommy John surgery this spring pushes him down some but Cole Phillips has first round caliber stuff and throws a decent amount of strikes. The fastball velocity was way up this spring and he was hitting 99 MPH while sitting 94–96 MPH each outing. Phillips has 6.6' of extension too so you know that plays up. He only sat 91–93 MPH last summer and topped out at 95 MPH. His elbow immediately popped when the velocity jumped. Does the velocity stay when he returns? That’s why he is ranked so low. The fastball has plus spin and average vertical movement with plus horizontal life from a 5.7' release height and 0.9' release side. The pitch should miss bats regardless but it only has real elite potential if he can hold the velocity gains from this spring.

The slider took a major step forward this spring. He’s bumping the upper eighties now and it has nasty bite with limited depth. It’s somewhat of a slutter hybrid and might be better served by going full cutter. I have it as above-average but it’s a loose grade. The curveball is average mostly due to the slot that helps him out. He sits 76–79 MPH with average depth and some sidespin. The changeup has flashed plus fading action but struggled with depth and was too slow in the summer. He had more velocity in the spring but I’m not sure if that affected the shape.

There is four intriguing pitches in Phillips’s toolset and he has a solid delivery with control. There is some risk given the stuff only just popped up right before the elbow popped and we don’t know what he’ll be when he returns, but the upside of spring 2022 Phillips is worth spending seven figures in order to find out.

76. 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas

Cayden Wallace posted a Max EV of 112 MPH in Omaha just last month to remind everyone he has plus raw power to pair with the average in-zone contact rates. The swing is compact and explosive with loud results. The approach is above-average as well in both Z-Swing% and Chase%. There are some concerns with Wallace hitting a bit too many mishits but the bat should be solid even if the upside is not exactly elite.

Cayden Wallace has very limited experience at third base but don’t let that fool you. Wallace should be an above-average third baseman on the light end. He’s still trying to figure out some of the basics so there are lapses at times but the upside is clear as day. Wallace regularly showcases plus range and makes highlight reel plays. He also has premium arm strength to bind the package together. Cayden Wallace isn’t the most exciting early round pick but he should be productive and absolutely belongs n that range.

77. SP Cade Obermueller, Iowa City High High School

Cade Obermueller is an unconventional arm but I think he will be an effective one. He’s a very low slot low release starting pitcher who eyeballing it is probably at ~4.5' release height and ~3' horizontally. Those are crude estimates but not that inaccurate of ones.

Cade Obermueller sits at just 88–91 MPH and tops out at just 93 MPH. There is probably some strength projection given that he’s 5'11" 155lbs but it’s not a given that it actually translates to velocity, regardless of how efficiently he moves due to the slot. The pitch is more of a sinker with a high gyro angle but it’s a bit of a unicorn sinker. This is mostly due to the unique release traits but also because he gets his spin rates over 2600 RPMs at times and sits at about ~2400 RPMs. The sinker has some SSW traits and a four-seamer/rising two-seam fastball might not be impossible given the feel for spin from the slot. It’s an above-average fastball with a lot of variance but I do think that grade is closer to too light than overestimating him.

Obermueller has a ridiculous sweeper. He sits at ~78 MPH with spin rates that top 3000 RPMs. The pitch has heavy sweeping action with him averaging over 15" of sweep. This slider is coming from a very wide horizontal angle that inflates the HAA’s and only makes him more dominant. The pitch has somewhat limited drop and he needs to work on reducing the active spin ration but if he has semi-decent command with the slider than it should perform.

The changeup is fringier given the mediocre shape and potentially sub-optimal slot but he kills spin getting down to ~1500 RPMs. The cambio sometimes looks like it’s zig-zagging when he commands it to the glove side and can leave hitters in knots. The changeup is a distant third pitch but it still projects as an average one.

This is a hard profile to value in any arm but especially from a prep. Obermueller has good stuff but it’s very unconventional and look guys like Obermueller often fall flat against better hitting. If we got to see him at Iowa for two years, I think he would go in the first round then. The stuff should play it’s just weird so it might not. There is sizeable risk but I’ll throw him 1MM to find out if he’s the next Hjerpe.

78. SP Adam Mazur, Iowa

Adam Mazur had gotten some first round hype earlier in the draft cycle but most people seemed to have since moved off of that absurd take. Honestly, I probably still have Mazur too high.

The fastball sits at 94 MPH which is good but it plays way down because Mazur only averages 5.6' of extension. The pitch also has pretty average vertical movement at 17.7" IVB in road games and a 6.1' release height in road games. The skill to circle here is that he’s still growing into his frame and putting on healthy weight, I think there’s a chance that in his prime, Mazur is averaging 96+. I don’t think it’ll be a great pitch given the movement profile but it should be above-average.

The slider is Adam’s out pitch. He sits at 84 MPH with heavy gyro spin and that leads to -1.1" IVB and 4.5" of sweep. The pitch misses bats and should continue to do so. The other secondaries are more fringe with a curve only flashing but frequently showing below-average movement. The changeup has good separation and kills spin but only average depth and fade. The pitch has some potential but feel isn’t usually there so I’m not a fan of calling it more than average.

Adam Mazur has no problem with throwing strikes and has made strides with his batted ball profile this year. The stuff is more okay than good but he could still fill a role as a back of the rotation starter. I can see the appeal here but in my opinion, he’s not ever going to be more than a #5 starter and I want upside in the first two rounds. I have to respect the safety of his profile but I wouldn’t love selecting him.

79. C/1B/LF/DH Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech.

Cade Hunter is the son of the Mariners scouting director, Scott Hunter. His defensive home is very much in the air but he can hit. Hunter was a catcher in college but he had the worst average throw velocity and pop time in the country last year (10+ throws tracked) so it seems incredibly unlikely that he will actually catch at the next level. Wherever he plays, he will hit enough to profile as a big league contributor.

Cade Hunter has explosive raw power. His Max EV is 112.5 MPH and he has a 97th percentile top 8th EV. The power plays in games too with a 96th percentile barrel rate. The power is loud and the hit tool is interesting. Hunter has just a 73.8% contact rate this year but that is misleading. Hunter has average contact rates in the strike zone- sitting at 82.9%. He makes good swing decisions (17% chase rate) and hits for power with respectable contact skills. There is some hit risk since he does most of his damage against lower-velocity fastballs but it should be a solid enough tool. Hunter profiles as a somewhat risky middle of the order TTO masher without a position. He’s a third round guy because the bat is loud but I have a hard time justifying him any higher than this.

80. SP Seth Keller, Hanover High School

Seth Keller has been a two-way player in High School and according to a closer personal contact of his, if he is drafted, Seth Keller prefers to hit first and switch to the mound if he flops. I can see the appeal in him as a shortstop with plus bat speed and elite athleticism but his talent on the mound is so exciting that I’m not giving him his due at shortstop because I think it’s foolish to waste time doing anything but pitching.

The changeup is absolutely unfair. He throws it with a circle change grip but the movement profile is very much that of a splitter and an excellent one at that. During the summer circuit, he averaged -3.7" IVB with 16.7" of fade to his arm side. For the sake of being fair, let’s compare that to every MLB changeup thrown 3+ times. Only four pitchers have as much drop as Keller on their changeup. Of those four, no one averages more than 13.9" of fading action. The most drop by a changeup with as much horizontal movement as Keller is the Airbender himself, Devin Williams. Except, Keller very much does not throw an Airbender because he averages just 1300 RPMs. It’s a unicorn pitch that is easily worth a plus grade.

I’ve heard nothing but good things about the slider this spring too. The slider sits in the low eighties and has sweeping action from a low slot. His mound positioning is somewhat detrimental to his HAA but the pitch is still a low slot sweeper to the glove side that should play off the only slightly lower changeup. It only earns an average grade but I know some people who think it’s better than the changeup.

Seth Keller isn’t really a projectable build but he moves really well on the mound. His arm timing has been on point this spring and he utilizes the entire kinetic chain effectively. He’s only sitting 91–93 MPH right now but I kind of expect that he’ll still add more velocity. The delivery looks a little violent but when you look at it frame by frame, it looks great and purposeful- probably because of the athleticism that lets him control his motion.

Seth Keller is 5'10" and throws from a very low arm slot. The result is a 4.9' release height. The fastball is a tailing two-seamer with just 13.2" IVB over the summer and 15.3" of run but the pitch still projects fairly well given the angles he gets from his low slot. I don’t think the fastball will be a big bat misser but it should get groundballs and he has the Changeup/Slider pairing to meet his swing and miss needs.

Seth Keller has three quality pitches and throws enough strikes. Despite the unconventional look, that sounds like a starting pitcher to me. Seth Keller has a surprisingly high ceiling for how little velocity he has and belongs in the top three rounds for me. He’s an Old Dominion commit so I can’t imagine he’ll be that tough of a sign and whoever lands him will be getting a steal. He’s going to go lower than this ranking and in a few years, it’s likely teams will be scratching their head wondering how they completely missed his obvious talent.

81. SP Luis Ramirez, Long Beach State

Luis Ramirez is going to be one of the most featured arms from this year’s draft on Pitching Ninja- assuming he makes the majors. That stuff won’t really play at an elite level on the mound but the extreme horizontal movement that he offers makes him very GIFable.

Luis Ramirez primarily utilizes a sinker. The sinker sits at about 92 MPH and has only average spin rates. The pitch averages 6.9" IVB and 15.7" of armside fading action. The pitch flashes up to 23 inches of tail though. The pitch isn’t anything sexy but he can fill the zone with it and it’s probably why Ramirez had a 99th percentile groundball rate in 2021.

The curveball is a bit slower than I would like at 79.4 MPH with average spin but he gets a lot of movement. The pitch has -9.6" IVB which is above the MLB average (very slightly) and also gets 16.8" HB. Possibly because of how the sinker works down in the zone as well, Ramirez had a 26.2% swinging-strike rate with the pitch. I’m not sure it’s more than average at the next level but it definitely has that much upside.

The changeup gets a plus grade from me. He sits at just 83.5 MPH and has good arm speed. The movement is utterly ridiculous with just 1.6" IVB and 16" of fade. That is the same horizontal movement as the sinker but it drops 12 inches more with gravity and comes it 8.5 MPH slower. The changeup is his top chase pitch and it’s not hard to see why given the more vertical slot and the tunneling ability.

Luis Ramirez is far from the sexiest arm but he should be a safe back of the rotation arm. Except, he’s not safe because he just had Tommy John Surgery. This is a high floor low ceiling profile with the floor at slight risk right now. I still believe in the stuff getting him to the majors but it’s not a lock anymore so he falls to a third-round grade. If he goes higher I understand it though. He’s in a somewhat similar spot to McGreevy last year.

82. CF/RF Brendan Summerhill, Whitney Young Magnet High School

Brendan Summerhill doesn’t get a lot of hype for whatever reason but he does deserve it. The tools aren’t the loudest per say but he has projection and a present hit tool with athleticism and the skills to maybe tab into them. Also, he hit .541/.667/1.117 in a 6A school. That led his conference in literally every start including average, OPS, stolen bases, home runs, and RBIs. Most of those stats by a pretty wide margin. The production was loud.

Summerhill has plus bat speed and a ton of projection in his 6'4" frame. He’s an efficient rotator who consistently barrels the ball and has an inclined bat angle that makes it easy for him to create loft. The majority of his batted balls are hit at optimal angles in BP and in regular high school games that is only slightly less true. I think Brendan Summerhill has a chance to grow into plus game power.

The hit tool is above-average given the propensity for hitting the ball at optimal angles in part, but it’s also why he’s only earning a third round grade. There is hit risk. His contact skills are generally strong, he struck out just 5% of the time as a senior against solid competition while walking 23.3% of the time. Summerhill is particularly dominant against stuff down in the zone but shows some ability to adapt to the location of pitches and can make adjustments. That hasn’t quite translated against high heat yet, but he has the athleticism to think that it will eventually and that minor hole will be patched.

The only real scary thing here is that Summerhill has a long hand load that gives him struggles with velocity. I think you can coach the hand load smaller which is why the tool is graded as above-average but it creates risk and will probably lead to some initial struggles once he’s drafted and regularly facing guys throwing 90+ MPH.

The athleticism is a plus. Summerhill ran a 3.68 second 30 yard dash which is a plus run time and he did steal 34 bases in just 32 games this year. He has a good initial burst and it plays in the outfield. He’s a fringe centerfielder right now with shaky routes and even hands but he also played catcher up until 2021. I think he can learn the position, but even still, as he fills in, there’s a solid chance he is forced to right field. Summerhill has plus arm strength so he’s a good fit if he does move there.

The bat is the calling card but Summerhill should also help out on defense. I understand why he’s not the most hyped prep bat out there but he’s worthy of just under seven figures in my opinion. If he makes it to Arizona, he’s going to go very high in three years.

83. RP/SP Adam Maier, Oregon

Adam Maier is having a UCL brace inserted this April which puts him on pace to pitch again at the start of 2023. He’ll be just 21 next year and is coming off a season where he threw just 15.2 innings last year. I think it’s fairly likely that he refuses to sign outside of the first three rounds. I also think that despite the lack of work, and the risk, Maier is more than worth a top three round pick to a team with a strong pitching development system.

There is no one in the entire draft, prep or college arm with more movement in their arsenal. The sinker sits at 92 MPH with just 10.4" IVB and a breathtaking 20 inches of horizontal movement. 20 inches! No major league arm averages that much movement. He’s technically throwing from a 6' vertical release but San Diego’s trackman tends to inflate release heights by nearly half a foot so it’s closer to 5.5'. The pitch has a fairly standard horizontal release and should really play given the movement profile.

The sweeper is even dumber. He sits at 81.1 MPH and throws it with spin rates that average 2950 RPMs. The pitch movement is the best you will ever see as he averages -8.7" IVB and 20.6 inches of sweep. That is average depth for a curveball with plus power and the second most sweep of any pitch in all of baseball behind only Rich Hill’s 69 MPH slider. I would suggest forfeiting if you ever find yourself facing Adam Maier on the mound.

Adam Maier also has a fringe-average changeup because of course he does. The pitch sits 85–87 MPH but it kills ~500 RPMs. It wouldn’t be Adam Maier unless he averaged 20 inches of fade- so of course, he averages 19.8". The depth at 4.7" IVB is solid in a vacuum but that is only 10 inches more drop with gravity than the sinker so it doesn’t really play that well. Maier shows some promise but has to either subtract velo or add depth to the cambio.

Adam Maier has the stupidest stuff in the draft but I’m skeptical it will actually perform. He might be like Matt Brash and be too good for the majors. That’s not actually how it works but Brash had the problem that all his stuff moved too much and too distinctively to actually get chases at the upper levels.

I think Maier could be plagued by the same issue. His sinker and curveball look nothing alike despite the same release. The combo should dominate in relief but when you get to see them multiple times, it will be increasingly easy to layoff in multiple looks. Tejay Antone has a similar curve and dominates with it in relief but only used it 16.1% of the time when he was starting games because it fell off so hard in multiple looks. Antone also had a plus slider to provide a middle ground option. Maier has an elite feel for both spin and low efficiency so it’s not hard to see him adding a gyro slider to set up both pitches but that’s an extra risk if you’re relying on it to start.

Adam Maier has an elite ability to spin the ball and if he can land all three pitches for strikes then you might not even have to change the repertoire much to find a starting pitcher in the rubble. That control is a bit of a question though and I think he’s more likely to profile as a very fun reliever. There is top end starting pitcher upside I would absolutely pursue first and draft early to try to bring to fruition but in the end, it feels unlikely that he sticks. Huge upside college arm on day two of the draft. If he goes back to school he has the talent to be a high first round pick next year.

84. C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State

Logan Tanner does everything well and nothing exceptionally well. Okay, he does do one thing exceptionally well- pitch framing. Unfortunately for Tanner, that doesn’t matter at all with ABS likely coming to the majors in 2024. Tanner is still a solid defensive catcher, in the 58th percentile of catcher DRS with a rocket of an arm. His average pop time is in the 84th percentile and he has solid accuracy as well.

Ultimately though, in a post- ABS world, even catchers have to hit. Will Tanner do so? It’s an interesting question. Logan Tanner did not really excel at the plate this year with a 103 wRC+ but he excelled under the hood in some ways even if he wasn’t really getting unlucky. Logan Tanner has an 88.2% in-zone contact rate in Trackman games, he only chases 25.6% of the time while swinging at 70.3% of strikes, and he has a Max EV of 109 MPH on balls hit with a positive launch angle. Those are all above-average numbers and hint at the upside of Tanner’s bat.

Yet, the bat doesn’t perform. Why? Other than terrible spray directions it is not immediately clear why that is. Tanner has just a 4.9% barrel rate despite above-average max power, and even his top 8th EV of 106.1 MPH is in the 88th percentile. He hits the ball hard and he has only average groundball rates. The problem is that Tanner’s flyballs are rarely hit hard just 28.6% of the time. The majority of Tanner’s hard hits are wasted on low launch angle contact.

There is upside in the bat and catchers who can hit have a lot of value but he’ll take some work to see manifest it. He’s worthy of a third round pick and I get the argument for higher given the fundamental skills but I do have to disagree. The upside isn’t that high at the plate, just a ~115 wRC+ ceiling which is good but not enough to completely overlook all of his flaws.

85. SS/CF Chandler Pollard, Woodward Academy

Chandler Pollard is one of the more unheralded gems of the prep class. He’s an elite runner with exceptional home to first times (3.6 on a bunt as a RHB and 4 on a non-bunt) and a 6.4 second 60 yard dash. He stole 59 bases in just 31 games during his senior season of high school. He also has plus arm strength that should when combined with the speed make him a shortstop. I am also intrigued by the possibility of moving him to centerfield where the speed will cook and his throw velos are genuinely a 70 from the outfield when he can just let it rip. He doesn’t have to move but he might want to because he could be better in centerfield.

The bat is the reason he belongs in the first three rounds though. He has legit plus raw power with most of incoming from elite wrist strength and hand speed. The bat speed is loud and he has good extension. The torso rotation could use some work but there’s still good power. Pollard also never whiffs in the zone. He’s short to the ball and has no trouble with velocity. There is some breaking ball recognition problems but I like the bat’s upside and he should be an asset on defense. Possible five-category contributor who deserves top three rounds money.

86. SP Kassius Thomas, Sierra Canyon High School

Kassius Thomas is very much a project who would do very well in an organization with a great pitching lab. Thomas is a plus athlete with a lively arm and moves well on the mound with particularly great shoulder abduction and lower half explosion.

The velocity is up this year with him sitting 93–94 MPH most starts and I think more velocity will come as he adds strength. He also gets 7' of extension on average so the velocity plays up. Due to the long stride and how deep into his glutes he gets, Kassius also has just a 5.4' release height with a 1.31' release side. The fastball shape is a work in progress and the spin rates are largely average but I think given the slot, it’s likely you can improve the spin efficiency, and with his potential velocity and angle, the fastball will still play without elite carry.

The secondaries only flash but he throws strikes and has a big fastball with huge velocity upside. I love the athlete, delivery, and body. Kassius Thomas is the rare arm I like who doesn’t have overwhelming data but just good traits and hits a lot of the more old school markers you look for. I think you can do a lot of stuff with an arm this talented. He shows feel and has a high makeup. I’m in on Kassius Thomas for third round money and could get behind him even earlier with the right team.

87. SP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia

I was not a fan of Jonathan Cannon last year when he went undrafted despite frequently earning first three round grades. That has changed this year with the addition of a cutter that has quickly become his best pitch.

The sinker sits at 94 MPH from a 6' vertical release and 2.8' release side. The pitch has 8.7" IVB and 16.3" of arm side fade this year. He also throws a cutter at 89.7 MPH with 9.2" IVB and 2.3" HB. The pitches on their own suck but together they can be deadly. The two come from the same tunnel and are prepared by 2.6" of drop with gravity and 18.5" horizontally. The velocity difference is just 4.3 MPH. This allows both pitches to play way up since they interact so well and leads to Cannon getting chases aplenty. There is also a poor four-seam fastball that I would recommend scrapping.

There are two breaking balls. The slider is the better of the two with -0.6" IVB and 7.5" of sweep. The pitch misses some bats and he can locate it in the zone so it scrapes an above-average grade from me. Cannon leaned on the curveball last year but has since de-emphasized it. He has solid velocity at 81 MPH but -6" IVB won’t miss very many bats. The changeup is very fringy with solid separation and average movement but also has poor feel.

The primary attraction of Jonathan Cannon is that he throws strikes and gets groundballs. The new emphasis on the cutter and slider allows him to miss enough bats and he now projects as a fairly safe #5 starter. He’s not sexy but he’s a role 45 player, even if not one I’m excited about the prospect of drafting.

88. SP Jackson Cox, Toutle Lake High School

Jackson Cox is far from a finished product. You aren’t drafting him for what he is but what he can be. Cox sits just 90–93 MPH with the fastball but has a projectable frame and moves well on the mound so you expect more velocity to develop. He also has a spin factor over 26 which makes it easier to overlook the fastball efficiency. Issues he throws from a traditional slot with normal wrist orientation so it seems fairly likely he can improve the efficiency in pro ball.

The breaking ball is the calling card though. He sits 79–82 MPH and can absolutely let them rip with spin rates that frequently top 3000 RPMs. The shape tends to involve sweeping action but as he gets stronger we should see impact velo and spin. There is a high variance plus projection here. There is also a changeup with good movement but he needs to subtract more velocity from it. Cox has had inconsistent control so far but he’s a good athlete with a good delivery so I still like his chances. If he goes to the right team he’ll be a steal regardless of what round he is in, but there are a lot of teams where this arm is very unlikely to develop as Cox requires a very hands on approach to development.

89. CF/RF Clark Elliot, Michigan

Clark Elliot is going to go in the first three rounds even if it’s not an exciting profile. Elliot is a fringy fit in centerfield with plus speed and an above-average arm but not enough explosiveness to really make an impact there. The power is not there with a top 8th EV of only 101.8 MPH and his barrel rate is just 4.6%. What Elliot does excel at is making contact and making good swing decisions. He’s not an impactful player but he’s a low variance useful major leaguer and those tend to go fairly high.

90. SP Jacob Zibin, TXNL Academy

Jacob Zibin is nothing like Calvin Ziegler in terms of stuff but he went to the same school and was the same age so he flies a bit under the radar. I’ve also heard from a source close to Zibin that just like Ziegler, Zibin is willing to sign for slightly under the slot value in the first three rounds. The control has variance but he’s athletic and has good movements on the mound. He sometimes gets out of sync and can’t buy a strike but the games he’s pounding the zone with consistency and dominating everyone are what you focus on because that is the long-term upside.

Jacob Zibin has increased his velocity this spring and is now sitting 92–94 MPH and hitting 97. The feel for spin is above-average from a lower slot with more sinker shape than four-seam. The pitch isn’t sexy but it should still be effective. The changeup is really strong with fade and depth in the low eighties. He has a long arm action that helps sell it and good feel. Plus projection. The slider has some sweeper traits in the low eighties but needs significant work. The stuff is here and he throws strikes so I’m interested in him as early as the second or third round.

91. SS/IF Eric Snow, Mary Persons High School

Eric Snow set the national prep triples record in 2021 with 18 of them in a thirty-game season. He then added 15 lbs this year and only hit three triples. Why? You ask. Because he hit 17 homers instead in just 28 games instead. He’s at a 3A school so it probably doesn’t matter much but still.

What might matter more is his loud production and more specifically contact skills in a small sample with Hawkeye. Eric Snow also has above-average bat speed and feel to elevate. The added muscle is letting him start to get to that power in games. The fit is fringy at shortstop. He’s a plus runner with solid-average arm strength but there are some arm accuracy and hands issues that could push him to what would likely be second base. The hit tool is the calling card here but Snow has pop and shouldn’t be a zero on defense. He’s a USF commit who should come fairly cheap and a talented player with a lot of upside who should still be available on day two.

92. SP Jack O’Connor, Bishop O’Connell High School

Jack O’Connor only sits 90–93 MPH with his fastball but he had 7.3' of extension last summer so it plays up. There is also a lot of strength projection left in his 6'5" frame. The fastball shape is fairly bland with tail over rise but it still has a fairly average ride and a spin factor of 26. The other draw is a 5.4' release height so with improved spin efficiency and arm strength there is the foundation for a great arm.

The fastball is really the one reason O’Connor is of interest to me as the secondaries are somewhat bland. The changeup is the most interesting pitch and that’s mostly just because he shows flashes of elite shape but lacks feel and arm speed. Still, flashing just 5" IVB with 22" inches of fade is absurd. The breaking balls both lack impact power and can bleed together. There is some sweep and the curve has depth but both are inconsistent and fringy. The appeal here is just a really good fastball with an optimal body and traits. He’s a bit of a project arm but the upside is very high.

93. 3B/1B Max Wagner, Clemson

Max Wagner is an interesting profile. He provides very little defensive value and his track record of hitting is just one season. That one season really boils down to just 28 games where he hit .398/.504/1.000. The problem is that the measurables aren’t really on par with the all-world production. They are good but not exceptional.

The Max EV is just 110.8 MPH and his top 8th EV is only in the 83rd percentile. The power is good and he has above-average feel to elevate but it’s not near as elite as the output in games would suggest. The hit tool is above-average and the power is a plus but it’s just kind of meh for not doing much on defense.

He has an 84.8% zone-contact rate and only chases 19% of the time. The problem is that he also has a popup problem, pulls the ball always, and has average line drive rates. He’s a 50 hit/55 power bat who might wind up at first base. I get why people want him in the first two rounds but I’m not one of them.

94. SS/SP Austin Charles, Stockdale High School

Austin Charles is a legitimate day two prospect as both a hitter and pitcher. As a pitcher, he is more late day two rather than where I have him ranked as a shortstop. He throws up to 96 MPH on the mound with a very high release sinker that has great angles and some SSW traits. The curveball is in the low eighties with a somewhat slurvy shape and great depth. The changeup is more fringe but his arm action helps sell it and it’ll occasionally flash. I love the mechanics even if there is some effort and think Charles would throw strikes. He’s not the highest upside arm but he’s a solid one nevertheless.

Austin Charles is the highest upside bat though. Okay, that is slightly hyperbolic but the ceiling here is extremely high. Austin Charles is a 6'6" shortstop which Oneil Cruz proves can work in the majors (5 DRS in less than 200 innings lol). He’s an agile defender with plus or better speed and obviously plus arm strength given his pitching pedigree. His action are as solid as they were before his growth spurt when he was considered a likely shortstop by most of the industry. There is some risk he fills in and loses too much speed to play shortstop but for now, I like his chances.

Thre is swing and miss as a result of his long levers. He gets beat inside and the bat control can wane at times. Then again, he only struck out 9.4% of the time in one of the better high school conferences in California. He’s more contact quality over quantity anyway. He has a steeper bat angle which helps him achieve optimal angles and puts the ball in the air with some regularity.

Charles also has elite power potential with exquisite bat speed and strong lower half that he does a solid job incorporating. He’s only going to get stronger as he grows into his very lanky frame.

I’m a big believer in the impact upside of his bat. There is some approach issues and whiff concerns but the power/speed upside from a shortstop is absolutely massive. He has incredible bloodlines too with a father who played basketball in college, a mom who was an All-American in Volleyball, and a brother who was drafted into the MLB over ten years ago. Charles checks a lot of boxes and could make a huge impact for the club lucky enough to draft him.

95. SP Jonah Tong, Georgia Premier Academy

Jonah Tong is one of the biggest popup arms this spring and given that he is only committed to North Dakota State, it’s highly likely that he signs and for relatively cheap. The stuff is loud and there is a decent chance I am much too low on Tong.

The fastball is the calling card. Tong sits 92–94 MPH and touched 96 MPH in the MLB draft league. He has a great feel for spinning the ball and exceptional vertical movement as he is averaging 21" IVB in the MLB Draft League. Don’t quote me on this but I believe that they are using the minor league baseball so it’s really really good vertical movement.

Tong appears on film to have good extension and given that his only 6'0" it’s fairly likely he has a low release. This is an awesome fastball that should see him drafted very highly. I’m being tentative with his ranking because there’s still a lot of particulars I don’t know but everything I’ve seen on film or in the data is amazing.

The curveball is also above-average. He sits 74–78 MPH in my looks with -10" IVB and just 2" of sweep from a very vertical slot. It’s a true 12–6 hammer with elite spin rates (~2700 RPMs) and a solid shape that just needs more efficiency. The control over the pitch is lacking and he needs more power but the potential is clearly there for an above-average pitch.

I haven’t seen much of the changeup but I’ve gotten positive reviews from both sources I asked about it. He kills spin and creates good fading action. It’s a fringe-average pitch because I don’t know enough but it could be better. Jonah Tong has three quality pitches- one of which is potentially elite. He has some sustainability questions because he came out of nowhere but the stuff is legit and someone with more data than me could see him as a day one arm and I wouldn’t be surprised.

96. SP Tristan Smith, Boiling Springs High School

Tristan Smith has below-average command but I really like the three pitch mix. The fastball sits 92–94 MPH and tops out at 96 MPH. Tristan Smith is also someone who moves efficiently on the mound and has some projection left.

The lefty starter has plus feel for spin with a spin factor of 26.5 during the Hawkeye games. The fastball also has above-average carry as he sat at 19.1" IVB (Adjust for the ball so ~17") and he has great tailing action as well at 12.5" HB on average. The fastball plays up a tad too from a 5.7' ft release height and 1.82' RelSide.

The breaking ball is above-average as well. Tristan Smith primarily utilizes a curveball. Tristan Smith sits 78–80 MPH and at about ~2400 RPMs. The curve has MLB average vertical movement as well at -8.4 IVB and 12.4 inches of sweep to go with it. He probably needs to add more velocity for it to be an impactful pitch but I think that is pretty likely.

Tristan Smith also throws an average changeup. The pitch kills velocity and spin with him sitting at just 81 MPH with 1700 RPMs but has poor movement and the feel is still developing. I’m mostly just gambling on the arm speed and projecting out. The stuff upside isn’t that far off of most of the round one or two arms but his command keeps him below them.

97. SP/3B/RP Jack Brannigan, Notre Dame

Jack Brannigan is a legitimate prospect as both a pitcher and third baseman. This is where he ranks on the mound but he would be #172 on my board, purely as a hitter. He’s a fantastic defensive third baseman who has a borderline Masyn Winn level arm and good lateral movement at the hot corner. I like his range and surprising speed as well as obviously the arm enough to project him as a plus defender at the hot corner who could compete for gold gloves if he played there full time. There is plus raw power but he frequently mishits the ball so it plays down. There are also minor whiff and larger approach concerns. He’s a good player at third base but a risky one.

I want to see Jack Brannigan as a starting pitcher at the next level even if he’s only started one game in his career and had a career 6.94 ERA in 23.1 college innings. I swear this is not a joke. Jack Brannigan throws three quality pitches and given the athleticism and lack of experience on the mound, it’s easy to see the control improving.

The fastball is a plus pitch. He averages 96.1 MPH with spin rates that sit at 2533 RPMs. Brannigan has thrown as high as 99.8 MPH before! The pitch comes from a fairly unique angle with a 5.4' release height in road games and a 2.7' horizontal release; again isolated to road games because Notre Dame has a very miscalibrated Trackman unit.

The fastball has two variants. One is a sinker that sits 10.5" IVB and 18" inches of tailing movement to the arm side. The other is a four-seam at 15.5" IVB and 15" of tail. The four-seam is probably the better pitch but both have a use and the upside here is very high. He might lose a tick in the rotation and with a normal workload but it’s a flat fastball with a lot of horizontal movement and premium velocity. This is a heck of a pitch.

The slider is also a plus pitch. He throws it moderately hard at 83 MPH on average and can really spin it sitting at ~2600 RPMs. The pitch has 13" of sweep on average and plus depth as well with -0.9" IVB. The pitch plays up too due to the extremely wide horizontal release. I might be underselling the slider given that it had a swinging-strike rate close to 30% at Notre Dame this year.

The changeup is more fringe-average but it has to do solely with a lack of feel and command rather than stuff. Brannigan throws the changeup at 10.5 MPH slower than the fastball and kills nearly 800 RPMs off of it. The changeup has premium depth with just 2.5" IVB and he also averages 17.3" of fade. I have a hard time projecting given that it’s never in the zone and when it is it’s hung but the stuff is excellent.

That describes Brannigan as a whole for the most part. Jack Brannigan has superb stuff. If he had done this as a starting pitcher for a full season he would go in the top ten picks. He hasn’t done this as a starting pitcher so there is risk. There are huge command questions and relief risk. Because of the relief risk, it might make sense to keep him as a two-way player (At DH not third) until we know if he can make it as a starting pitcher. If he can’t a third baseman with premium defense is more valuable than a reliever probably but the starting pitching outcome has to be priority #1. The sky is the limit for Brannigan but there’s no one on my top 100 with more relief risk.

98. SP/RP Evan Chrest, Ostinger Baseball Academy

Evan Chrest doesn’t throw particularly hard only sitting 89–92 MPH and he probably never will seeing as how he’s only 5'11" with very little projection and non-elite movement speed on the mound. He might not need much more velocity though with spin rates that sit at about 2400 RPMs. Unlike a Jackson Cox, Chrest has great spin efficiency on his 1:30 fastball so he gets ~17" IVB and 17" HB. The pitch has a lower release height too coming from a 3/4 slot at just 5'11". The pitch projects as above-average even with velocity concerns.

The slider is heavenly. He sits in the 78–81 MPH range with sweeper shape and spin rates that average north of 3000 RPMs. The pitch has absurd movement on both planes and misses a plethora of bats. You might want more power out if it but it still projects as a plus pitch. I do wonder if it’s too distinct from the fastball that it hurts the deceptive traits of both but given that the fastball is a hybrid that works down just as much as up, it’ll never put him in as much of a hole as Matt Brash’s FB/SL pairing does with their lack of synergy.

The changeup is fringe with some splitter traits and good fade. Feel and consistency issues or whatever but there is upside there. I really like the mechanics, he has great timing throughout and excellent upper body flexibility that gives him good separation in his delivery. He is fairly low effort even if the head bobbles and there is at least average command here. You’re drafting Chrest for the hellacious breaking ball, but he offers three potentially quality pitches. He’s a Jacksonville commit too so he should be relatively affordable.

99. 2B/SS Robert Moore, Arkansas

Robert Moore was ranked as a top ten player in the entire draft by some places before the season and then the wheels fell off this year as he only logged a 101 wRC+. He’s now ranked outside the top 150 by a lot of places which feels like overkill. I don’t think he ever belonged in the top ten but he was a legitimate first round talent and he still belongs in the first three rounds.

Robert Moore needs to stop switch hitting. He is better as a lefty by a comically wide margin. His Z-Swing is 12.4% higher, his chase rate is 1.7% lower, and his whiff rate is literally halved down from 24.79% as a RHB to 12.4% as a lefty. He also has a Max EV of 105.9 MPH which isn’t a lot but it’s 2.8 MPH higher than as a righty and his Top 8th EV is also up by 1.5 MPH even if it’s still below-average at 101.3 MPH.

Robert Moore makes a lot of contact and has solid swing decisions as a whole. He’s a tad aggressive but it works. He shows some feel for the barrel and hits the ball to all fields. If he stops the switch I’ll really buy the bat, and even if he doesn’t it might be enough for a bench role. He’s an elite defender at the keystone as well who only might move off of shortstop because he has below-average arm strength. He’s a plus runner as well. Moore is a better prospect in fantasy than in real life but he should be solid in real life too. Especially if he ditches the stupidity that is switch-hitting.

100. SP Chase Shores, Legacy High School

Chase Shores sits 92–95 MPH with his fastball and gets 6.7' of extension. He can hit as high as 97 MPH and has a 6'8" frame and there is room for mechanical optimization as he learns to open up his pelvis earlier. There is triple digit potential here and possibly more. The fastball is a sinker primarily with good depth but and 15" of fade but he has spin rates that touch 2600 RPMs. Despite his higher release, Shores is throwing from a sub 6' vertical release point which creates some natural deception. I have the fastball as a plus even if it won’t be a big bat missed.

The breaking ball has made strides this spring. He now sits 83–85 MPH on the slider that flashes nasty bite from a lower slot. It’s still an average pitch because of how often he gets firm but it’s an interesting average. The changeup feel is still lacking but it has a really good shape. He sits at 82–85 MPH with 6.6" IVB and 15.8" HB during a start this February. I have it as an average projection but you could easily talk me higher. Despite his bigger frame, Shores throws strikes and there is obvious stuff upside. I have him as a late third round grade.

101. SP/RP Alex Hoppe, UNC Greensboro

You can read more about Alex Hoppe in yesterday’s piece on the best senior targets. Hoppe has been a reliever in college but I think despite being nearly 24, he can be stretched out to start. The fastball hits 99 MPH and has above-average ride from a 5.7' release height. The slider has plus sweep and good depth at 85.4 MPH. The changeup sits at 86.4 MPH which is nearly 10 MPH of separation and has 17.5" of fade to his arm side. He barely uses it and has poor feel but the shape is strong. Hoppe throws strikes with the fastball but has very poor secondary command. He’ll sign for cheap and won’t debut until he’s in his mid-late twenties but the impact potential is still very high.

102. SP/RP Nazier Mule, Passaic Tech. High School

Nazier Mule was a two way prospect entering 2021 with plus power at shortstop but when his velocity exploded last summer, any idea of him playing shortstop was put to death. Nazier Mule has hit 99.9 MPH twice in games with statcast. On 35 fastballs with Hawkeye, Mule is averaging 98.2 MPH. That is not a typo.

Mule also has an extremely low release height at 5.34' and a generic horizontal release at 1.82'. He has league average extension so the velocity is what it looks like too. The pitch has a dead zone shape with 12.7" IVB and 10.3" HB but also it’s 98+ constantly from a very low release so it still works. It’s still a deadly pitch and I believe the fastball shape can improve even if he’s got low spin rates. He could potentially utilize SSW given the feel for gyro and create a turbo sinker too. That is probably the most optimal route for developing Mule.

The slider probably needs more power sitting 82–85 MPH but he has solid feel for spin averaging just over 2400 RPMs and a very high gyro angle. The pitch has just 0.6" IVB and 1.8" of cut. I’d like to see him add more velocity and given the arm strength that is very possible, and if he’s sitting 85+ with a gyro curve off of the dead-zone fastball he is going to destroy hitters. Even better, there might be the ability to develop a cutter here- possibly even as the primary in the upper nineties. He has low efficiency and the feel to supinate. I’m not counting on it but it’s a possibility to mention so if it does happen I can gloat excessively about foreseeing it.

The changeup is much more fringe. The pitch has way too much separation from the fastball as he sits 82–84 MPH with almost identical spin rates. The shape is good with just 5.2" IVB in the Hawkeye games and 15.5" of arm side movement. The pitch is lacking in feel and deception but there is some upside here. Mule also throws a very poor curveball at just 78 MPH with 12–6 shape but no efficiency so it gets just -3" IVB. It’s a show-me pitch that should probably be scrapped entirely.

Obviously, given how hard he throws Mule has control and relief risk but he is at least a good athlete who keeps his composure. The stuff is the calling card because the potential impact of it is incredibly loud. High risk and high reward target in the third round.

103. 3B/SP Cutter Coffey, Liberty High School

Cutter Coffey is a two-way player who shouldn’t be allowed to pitch since he doesn’t throw a cutter. In all seriousness, I actually like Cutter on the mound and he would be in my top 300 purely as a pitcher. The sinker has elite fade from a very low release in the low nineties and he has a sweeper in the low eighties that flashes greatness. He’s much more interesting as a third baseman but there is legitimate potential on the mound.

The power is the calling card. He tested poorly last summer but he’s made some tweaks to his mechanics and is a lot better at using his backside to create power now. The attack angles are typically positive and he shows the ability to elevate regularly so I think he’ll tap into that power in games. The swing is violent which leads to some swing and miss risk but he also has a bat path that is often geared towards contact so it shouldn’t be that bad. The arm strength is a plus and even if he’s a high school shortstop, his thicker build makes it likely he plays third at the next level. He should be a quality defender there though given the arm strength and general actions. I like Coffey later in the third but I can see the appeal in taking him earlier and won’t have a problem if he does go earlier (or later).

104. SP/RP Will Frisch, Oregon State

If Will Frisch had been healthy this year, I think he would be talked about not too far beneath his teammate in the first round range. Instead, he blew out his elbow before making one start and underwent Tommy John Surgery this year. Given that Frisch has primarily been a reliever in college, there are too many questions to actually grade Frisch higher than this coming off of TJS.

The fastball is a plus pitch with lots of intriguing traits and the potential to be even better. The four-seam sits at 94.5 MPH with a very low release height of just 5.54'. The pitch also comes from a pretty medial 1.3' horizontal release. The movement is amplified by that release point as he gets 18.6" IVB on average along with 17.5" of horizontal movement. The pitch gets chases to the armside from the medial release and dominates the top of the zone with how flat his VAA is. He’s also showcasing above-average velocity. Maybe he fades closer to 93 MPH in the rotation but the stuff should still play.

The changeup is a lethal secondary weapon. He sits at 87.8 MPH which is admittedly not great velocity separation but it might be the only knock. Frisch averages just 2.7" IVB and has an exceptionally great 17.7" inches of arm side movement. He sells it really well as the fastball with good arm speed and hides the ball. He gets chasees at an elite rate and in-zone whiffs as well. There are some questions with the changeup command but it still performs even if he can’t find the zone with it all of the time.

The slider rounds out his repertoire and projects as below-average. He has solid velocity at 84.6 MPH on average and it plays off the changeup from the same tunnel but the actual traits leave a lot to be desired. The slider has just 3.3" of sweep and below average depth as well as he only averaged 4.5" IVB last year. He can lead the slider for strikes so maybe I’m underselling the impact but it’s also clearly his worst pitch.

The control is below-average oftentimes but it’s not an insurmountable flaw, just a minor knock. He also has an exceptional batted ball profile that was among the best in the country as a reliever. He collects all of groundballs, popups, and line drives at an above-average rate. There is some risk in stretching him out and Tommy John but I think he has a starter’s repertoire with great OHB weaponry and plus outgen skills. He’s a gamble but it could be one with a massive payoff in the third round and beyond.

That’s all for the players with first three rounds grades. You can read the rest of my unedited notes on the top 500 players in this year’s draft HERE. There are over 150,000 more words of completely new content on the top 500 players in this year’s draft (Including more info on some of the ones in this medium post) if you follow THIS LINK! Seriously, click THE FUCKING LINK.

Thanks for reading! Tomorrow is the most fun blog (For me writing it) I’ve ever written as I’ll break down some of the top relief prospects in the draft. Oh and there’s still another 150,000+ words of draft content left to read today by following this link!

One more time, here’s a link to my draftboard.