Did the Rams and Eagles Pay Too Much? Part I
A history of recent blockbuster draft trades
The 2016 NFL draft is here, and the Rams and Eagles have stolen headlines with each trading into the top 2, presumably to take hopeful franchise QBs Jared Goff from California and Carson Wentz from North Dakota State.
The teams gave up an incredible 11 picks combined for the chance to move up- was it too much? To find our answer, we first need to look back at recent blockbuster draft trades and see how they worked out for the teams involved.
We’ll define “blockbuster draft trades” as those that involved a team giving up multiple 1st round picks, like the Rams and Eagles just did. There have been 15 such trades during 1997–2016, our 20-year period of study.
We’ll go through each of the 15 deals and see if the price was worth it, particularly for the team moving up. For the one trading down, it’s often too difficult usually to analyze all the players they got in return since the draft has so many moving parts, but we can consider the value of the picks received.
When you’re finished here, be sure to click here for Part II- What we have learned and a verdict. Off we go…
1995 Cincinnati gets 1.1 from Carolina for 1.5, high 2nd
1997 St. Louis gets 1.1 from NY Jets for 1.6, 3rd, 4th, 7th
These trades don’t qualify- they’re not in the past 20 years, and neither team gives up multiple first round picks. They’re here to provide some context.
The ’95 Bengals moved up for RB Ki-Jana Carter at a minimal cost, just a 2nd rounder. A couple years later, the ’97 Rams paid a bit more, but still a very reasonable cost, to go get franchise LT Orlando Pace. The next year our first blockbuster would hit- and no team would ever pay so little to move up again.
1998 San Diego gets 1.2 from Arizona for 1.3, high 2nd, future 1st (became 1.8), and players
The infamous Ryan Leaf trade changed everything. You remember what a disaster Ryan Leaf was as a player and team presence, but the bigger travesty may have been the trade itself. San Diego only needed to move up one spot to get Leaf- a player the Cardinals had apparently decided they didn’t want- and gave up their very high 2nd rounder and the following year’s 1st plus a couple players (Eric Metcalf and Patrick Sapp) for the privilege.
The Chargers hurt themselves and, in the process, inflated the value of a high 1st round pick to sights previously unseen.
1999 Carolina gets DT Sean Gilbert for 1.5, future 1st (1.12) from Washington
Gilbert sat out the ‘98 season on a contract dispute. The Panthers then signed him to a huge deal and gave up two 1st round picks as compensation- basically amounting to a trade. Considering Carolina knew it would be giving up its 5th pick, it was a steep price. Washington had actually traded the 6th pick in a previous draft for Gilbert, so it recouped its cost, played Gilbert a year, then doubled his value. We’ll hear more from the Redskins imminently.
1999 New Orleans gets 1.5 from Washington for 1.12, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, future 1st (1.2), future 3rd
The Ricky Williams deal! Remember Ditka in a tux and Ricky in a wedding dress? The Saints traded every pick that year (they’d already traded their 2nd) plus future 1st and 3rd rounders to get their man. This trade was devastating for the Saints- despite Ricky Williams being pretty good. They cost themselves 4–7 rotation players and ended up losing the 2nd pick in the following draft. It’s probably not a coincidence that the team finished with the second worst record the year after spending an entire draft on a RB.
As for the Redskins, they made out like bandits. Does that 1.5 look familiar? They got it for the guy who’d just sat out a year, Sean Gilbert. The Skins ended up packaging most of those picks that year- but not the future picks- to move right back up to 1.7 and get stud CB Champ Bailey.
2000 Washington gets 1.3 from San Francisco for 1.12, 1.24
The next year the Redskins combined the other Gilbert pick with their own to move up to 1.3 to select franchise LT Chris Samuels. They had 1.2 as well from the Ricky Williams deal and took LB LaVar Arrington there. So if you’re keeping track, a guy sat out an entire year and then was traded for what turned out to be Champ Bailey, Chris Samuels, and LaVar Arrington. Welp.
2000 Tampa Bay gets WR Keyshawn Johnson from NY Jets for 1.13, 1.27
2000 Dallas gets WR Joey Galloway from Seattle for 1.19, future 1st (1.7)
These trades happened the same spring, with both the Cowboys and Bucs giving up a pair of 1st rounders to get a coveted receiver. Neither player proved even remotely worth the value, though Keyshawn did win a Super Bowl in Tampa. Seattle and New York walked away with RB Shaun Alexander and DE John Abraham (and more). The Bucs and Cowboys soured on their receivers and traded them for each other just four years later.
2001 Atlanta gets 1.1 from San Diego for 1.5, 3rd, future 2nd, WR Tim Dwight
Atlanta paid a pretty reasonable price for the star player their franchise had always lacked in QB Michael Vick, and the Chargers came away with RB LaDainian Tomlinson and others on the move down. One of those very rare trades where both teams got a win- though perhaps SD sold itself a bit short.
2002 Miami gets Ricky Williams from New Orleans for 1.25, 4th, conditional future pick (1.18)
Betcha forgot Ricky got traded for such a high price a second time. On the one hand, the Saints recouped the two 1st rounders they had paid 3 years earlier. On the other hand, the picks were much lower and the price of the initial deal probably led to the Saints’ downfall and need for this subsequent trade. Ricky was fantastic for the Dolphins that year and many after. Miami had to give up a second 1st round pick because of his production, but it was worth it.
2003 NY Jets gets 1.4 from Chicago for 1.13, 1.22, 4th
2003 New Orleans gets 1.6 (and high 2nd, 4th) from Arizona for 1.17, 1.18, 2nd
These two disastrous trades fit together because both the Jets and Saints paid a very heavy price to move up for a stud defensive tackle and both whiffed terribly. Neither Dewayne Robertson nor Johnathan Sullivan was even above average for their teams, while the Bears and Cardinals profited from the move down. Chicago used one of their extra picks on QB Rex Grossman, and the Cardinals grabbed DE Calvin Pace and WR Anquan Boldin with theirs.
That’s the way to use luxury picks! Packaging an extra pick to move up for a must-have guy can work well too… unless the guy is Robertson or Sullivan.
2004 NY Giants get 1.1 from San Diego for 1.4, 3rd, future 1st (1.12), future 3rd
This was the infamous Eli Manning deal, with our first baby Manning Face of many as Eli stood sourly onstage after the Chargers drafted him #1 and held him ransom. Considering the Mannings had already said Eli would not sign for San Diego, the Giants paid quite a premium here. Of course Eli is a 2-time Super Bowl MVP and that’s worth pretty much any possible draft package. The Chargers came away with QB Philip Rivers, PK Nate Kaeding, and LB Shawne Merriman so they were pretty happy themselves.
Note how the Chargers turned two #1 picks in 2001 and 2004 into the entire core of their team that contended for the playoffs for nearly a decade after. That’s how you trade down, accumulate picks, and turn around a franchise!
2009 Chicago gets Jay Cutler from Denver for 1.18, 3rd, future 1st (1.11), QB Kyle Orton
This is an extremely rare deal- when else do you remember a relatively premier QB traded just as he was entering his prime? Cutler already had some of the loser reputation he has now, but it’s tough to fault the Bears for paying a couple 1sts for a quality starting QB. That’s a win.
Here’s a case where the team getting the picks seems to have lost the deal. Just how good might Denver have been these past years with that defense if they had even a remotely good QB instead of the guys they’ve used? Then again, no trade probably means no Peyton and maybe no Super Bowl.
2009 NY Jets gets 1.5 from Cleveland for 1.17, 2nd, players
You’ll notice this one doesn’t actually fit the blockbuster criteria. The Jets got a huge steal, giving up only a mid-2nd to move up 12 spots into the top 5, a turn-back-the-clocks steal of a deal. Too bad they picked QB Mark Sanchez.
The Browns ended up trading down again from 1.17, twice actually. They finally chose C Alex Mack at 1.21, a nice player, but for all that moving down they only managed to pick up a 2nd (DE David Veikune) and two 6ths. This is the definition of a team trading down because they simply couldn’t make up their mind. Consider that this 5th pick in the draft is the same spot the Saints had given up a full eight picks to move to just a decade earlier.
2011 Atlanta gets 1.6 from Cleveland for 1.27, low 2nd, 4th, future 1st (1.22), future 4th
Atlanta moved up for WR Julio Jones, the supposed final piece on a Super Bowl contender. They paid a pretty steep price, but remember this was a very good team- they had good depth already and could afford to take a risk and, more importantly, their picks were all very low each round.
For Cleveland, moving down for two 1sts, a 2nd, and two 4ths looks pretty good. But with those picks all near the end of the round, it was closer to trading for two 2nds, a 3rd, and two 5ths. Would you want your team to trade those picks for Julio Jones? Yeah, I thought so. With all those picks, Cleveland came away with QB Brandon Weeden, WR Greg Little, DT Phil Taylor, and FB Owen Marecic. Maybe they should’ve just taken Jones.
2012 Washington gets 1.2 from St. Louis for 1.6, high 2nd, TWO future 1sts (1.22 in 2013, 1.2 in 2014)
This was the steepest price yet for a trade-up, the only time a team has traded a trio of 1sts for one player. And remember, that high 2nd isn’t too far from a fourth 1st. Washington of course came away with QB Robert Griffin III. The trade looks absolutely horrible in hindsight, but that of course is with the knowledge that Griffin tore up his knee and derailed his career.
Don’t forget that RG3 was incredible his rookie season, leading the Redskins back to the playoffs and re-energizing the team. With a late home playoff lead against Seattle that year, no Washington fan would’ve taken the trade back- but then it all went awry. Washington fell apart, eventually leading to the latter future 1st becoming the 2nd pick in the 2014 draft.
As for the Rams, well, they should have done better with their haul. They made two more trade downs from that initial pick- a sign of indecision- and whiffed on the latter 1.2 pick OT Greg Robinson. In some alternate universe, the Rams stay put and draft Griffin, he stays healthy and becomes the face of the new LA franchise, and the Titans are still at #1 Thursday.
2014 Buffalo gets 1.4 from Cleveland for 1.8, future 1st (1.19), future 4th
Yet another Browns trade down, but this time they finally got fair market value- the key being that they didn’t move so far down. The Bills were happy with their end, with WR Sammy Watkins on the cusp of stardom.
The Browns, to the surprise of absolutely no one, traded down again and ended up with CB Justin Gilbert, another bust, and C Cameron Erving, their “prize” of a future 1st. This is a franchise that has not shown an ability to scout players even remotely well nor to make up its mind.
Over a six year period, the Browns traded down six times from what were originally three top-6 picks. Those trades netted them Gilbert, Erving, Weeden, Taylor, Mack, Little, and Veikune. Just one of those players (Mack) will make a real impact this season. Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins, and even Mark Sanchez made plenty of impact on their teams.
2016 Los Angeles gets 1.1 (and 4th, 6th) from Tennessee for 1.15, mid 2nd, mid 2nd, 3rd, future 1st, future 3rd
2016 Philadelphia gets 1.2 (and 4th) from Cleveland for 1.8, 3rd, 4th, future 1st, future 2nd
And so that catches us up to this week’s 2016 NFL Draft and the two blockbuster trades that have you reading this.
So did the Rams and Eagles pay too much? Click here for Part II to see what lessons we’ve learned from recent history and find your answer. And when you’re done there, click here for a little Carson Wentz: Fact or Fiction…
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