Did the Rams and Eagles Pay Too Much? Part II

What we have learned from recent blockbusters and a verdict

The 2016 NFL draft is here, and the Rams and Eagles have stolen headlines with each trading into the top 2, presumably to take hopeful franchise QBs Jared Goff from California and Carson Wentz from North Dakota State.

The teams gave up an incredible 11 picks combined for the chance to move up- was it too much? In Part I, we considered the history of 15 recent blockbuster draft trades with a team giving up multiple 1st round picks.

Now it’s time to draw some conclusions. What have we learned from all of these blockbusters? And what can they tell us about the trades Los Angeles and Philadelphia made into the top 2? Let’s take a look…

Lesson #1: If the guy you’re trading up for turns into a superstar, just about any price will be fine in hindsight!

Of the 15 blockbuster trades considered in Part I, half of them netted their teams a superstar- Eli, Vick, Cutler, Ricky, Julio, Watkins, Samuels, and even pre-injury Robert Griffin. Those teams laughed all the way to the bank (ok, not Washington, but that’s bad luck revisionist history) and not a single fan cared about the many picks given up.

Note the odds here too- not bad! When a team was so sure about a player that they sold the farm for him, they were right over half of the time!

Those cheap young stars are even more valuable today than when Vick and Eli were drafted because of rookie salary cap ramifications. Watkins cost the Bills just $4 million this past season. Look at how good Seattle has been these past years with a dirt cheap Russell Wilson under contract. Getting a star young QB is even better when he’s crazy cheap and you can spend money elsewhere for the next four years to help the team even further.

Lesson #2: If you give up a bundle and it’s the wrong player, it can set your franchise back for years to come.

The Ryan Leaf trade crippled the Chargers for half a decade. The busted Sullivan and Robertson trade-ups really hurt the Saints and Jets, and the Galloway deal hamstrung the Cowboys. And yes, the Griffin deal weirdly qualifies here too. It’s kind of obvious, but giving up a ton for a poor return is not great. Especially when the problem compounds itself with a team getting the wrong guy, piling up a ton of losses, and then giving away a high future 1st round pick, a blockbuster draft deal can look really bad.

Lesson #2b: … But the good news is that teams are rarely wrong about the guy they sell the farm for.

Interestingly, this franchise-crippling scenario isn’t as common as you’d think. Only 5 times out of 15 trades did it really go sour- and two of those times were because of a serious injury (Galloway and Griffin). That leaves just 3 of 15, only 20% of the blockbuster draft trades, where a team was flat out wrong about the guy they gave up the world for.

That’s not bad! Leaf was an all-time bust, but a guy many were wrong on- remember the Chargers weren’t the only team that rated him as equal to or better than Peyton Manning. But 80% of the time a team sold its future to go get their man, they came away with a good or great player.

The Rams and Eagles didn’t make a move up to consider a few guys. Both teams fell in love with a player they think will change their franchise, a guy they simply could not pass up. History is on the side of them being right!

Lesson #3: Trading multiple picks from a position of luxury to move up is a worthy gamble.

In some of the blockbusters- the ones for Samuels, Keyshawn, Sullivan, and Robertson- the team paying the heavy price did so out of a position of luxury. They gave up multiple 1sts they had that year, having accrued an extra one from a previous move. Some of the teams that traded down (’99 Washington, ’00 Washington, ’03 New Orleans, ’11 Cleveland) used their new extra picks to move back up a bit and get a player they wanted too.

Take note, Tennessee and Cleveland- when you set yourself up with extra picks, you afford the chance to take some risks. In fact, you should.

Lesson #4: Trading future draft picks can really come back to bite a franchise. That’s where the biggest trouble has come from!

The biggest problem comes when teams are so desperate that they give up a future 1st. Teams are notorious for overrating themselves. Trading a future 1st doesn’t look too bad if you expect your team to make the playoffs and give up a 25th pick- and with this new star, you’ll surely get there, right? It gets bad in a hurry if the team struggles and gives away a top-10 or top-5 pick.

In 7 of the 15 blockbusters, a team gave up a future 1st that turned into a top-12 pick. Two of them became the #2 pick overall. That is a crushing blow.

Only 3 of 11 future 1sts turned into a bottom-12 pick, meaning only three times did a team make a blockbuster trade-up and make the playoffs the following season. One of those teams, the Redskins, ended up snakebitten anyway when their second future 1st came up #2 the next year.

Trading future picks is very dangerous. If the Rams or Eagles crash this year, these trades get much worse in a hurry. And most teams with a rookie QB don’t exactly have a lot of success. There’s real danger there.

Lesson #5: Trading down works well but is no guarantee of success.

In 10 of the 15 trade-downs, the team moving down was probably quite happy with their haul. That’s a 67% success rate, two in three!

Trading down tends to work because drafting is hard and getting extra picks gives you more lottery tickets and draft currency. Even if the team’s highest pick doesn’t work out, they still have a few more chances.

But the team trading down also misses out on some superstars. Almost any team would benefit by adding Eli, Vick, Ricky, Julio, Watkins, or Samuels.

Still, the Chargers got Tomlinson instead of Vick and got Rivers and Merriman instead of Eli. The 49ers got LB Julian Peterson and CBs Ahmed Plummer and Jason Webster instead of Samuels. There are stars available outside the top ten too. There’s probably not enough evidence to stop a team from trading down for fear of missing a star player.

Lesson #5b: … And trading down just for the sake of trading down is almost never a good idea. Make up your mind and draft someone.

The trade-down only works if you turn those new assets into real players. Some teams appear to trade down aimlessly, as if just having a lot of picks will guarantee success. At some point, you still have to draft good players.

There are stars available outside the top 10- but the guys being drafted higher have a higher probability of working out. Duh, right? More lottery tickets are good, but it matters that the odds are getting worse too.

In three of the four most recent blockbusters, the team that gave up all the picks won the deal. That’s not a good trend for Titans and Browns fans.

This is the fourth time in eight years the Browns have traded down from a top-6 pick. Those picks have amounted to very little- probably why Cleveland had the #2 pick again this year. At some point, it may be time to keep the high draft pick and take the guy everyone thinks is a star.

Los Angeles — Tennessee analysis

2016 Los Angeles gets 1.1 (and 4th, 6th) from Tennessee for 1.15, mid 2nd, mid 2nd, 3rd, future 1st, future 3rd

This trade involved nine picks, a lot to unscramble, so let’s simplify it. Those two extra picks the Rams get, the 4th and 6th, are roughly equal to a 3rd. Let’s eliminate those picks from each side to simplify the equation a bit.

LA gets 1.1 for 1.15, 2.43, mid 2nd, 3rd, future

Let’s simplify further. In 2010 the 49ers gave up the 43rd pick and a 4th for the #17 pick. The fabled NFL draft calculator says that the Rams two 2nds and 3rd combined are about worth the #13 pick. We’ll go with that.

LA gets 1.1 for 1.15, “1.13,” future 1st

Now the trade comes into focus. A team would never give up #1 overall for just the 13th and 15th picks, just not enough value. So the whole thing comes down to that future 1st Rams pick that will convey next year.

And therein lies the problem for LA. The Rams are in a very tough division, with Seattle and Arizona among the Super Bowl favorites and San Francisco sure to bounce back a bit. And the Rams will be starting a rookie QB. That pick next year has a pretty good chance of being in the top 10- and maybe even higher. If things go poorly, it could go top 5 or even #1 again.

The draft calculator shows that the Titans only need the Rams to miss the playoffs for this trade to come out in their favor- a pretty good bet obviously. It’s likely the Titans can expect to get something like the 7th pick next year.

Would you trade #1 for 7, 13, and 15? That’s a pretty easy decision, especially in a year where there’s no surefire top pick like Andrew Luck or even a definite non-QB to take at #1.

Titans verdict- This was a no brainer for Tennessee. They didn’t need a QB anyway and many draftniks project those two mid-2nd rounders to be almost as valuable this year as the mid-1st. The Titans can add four starter-caliber guys by pick 75- six, counting their own picks. They’re in good shape. And the gem of the trade comes next year, when they should have two top ten picks, maybe even better if the Rams are really bad. This was a great Titans deal.

Rams verdict- The Rams overpaid. That much is certain, and it’s bound to happen jumping from 15 to 1. The question is how much they overpaid, and that will come down to that future 1st and how good their Goff-led team is this year. If he’s the player they think he is, they probably win 6–8 games and the deal is only a slight overpay and one that’s totally worth it. If he struggles and they win 4 games or less, it looks very bad. Honestly, if you’re the Rams and you’re in love with Goff, this is a gamble you’re willing to take.

Philadelphia-Cleveland analysis

2016 Philadelphia gets 1.2 (and 4th) from Cleveland for 1.8, 3rd, 4th, future 1st, future 2nd

Let’s call those 4th rounders roughly even and ignore them. Now it’s a a 4-for-1… and it’s starting to look bad for Philadelphia. Just giving up that 3rd round pick with 1.8 should have been enough to move up two or three spots, getting them up to 1.6 or even 1.5. So now we have:

Philadelphia gets 1.2 for 1.5, future 1st, future 2nd

Again it comes down to the future picks. Philly’s immediate future looks a little brighter than the Rams. They’re in a much weaker division, with no clear playoff team, and that makes the schedule much easier. It looks likely that the Eagles will play a veteran QB for much of the season. That should be a bit more stable and give them a little more hope for a good year ahead. There’s decent reason to believe next year’s 1st will be in the 10–20 range. It should cost roughly a mid-1st to move from 5 to 2, so that’s not far off!

The devil is in the details though. Let’s look a bit closer at the trade.

• The Eagles gave up #8… a pick they got by trading LB Kiko Alonso and CB Byron Maxwell along with their #13 pick just to move up those five spots. And they just traded RB LeSean McCoy to get Alonso a year ago.
• The Eagles didn’t give up their 2nd round pick in the deal… because they don’t have it. They already gave it along with QB Nick Foles last year to get Sam Bradford, whom they are now replacing.
• The 4th round pick in this trade came from offloading RB DeMarco Murray to the Titans.

With all of that in mind, that paints a pretty different picture on the deal.

Philadelphia gets 1.2 and a 4th from Cleveland for 1.15, LeSean McCoy, Byron Maxwell, Nick Foles, DeMarco Murray, 3rd, future 1st, future 2nd

Ouch. This is a team that went WAY down the rabbit hole on the Chip Kelly experience and has now hit the reset button in a big way. Maybe there’s a reason these Eagles have the 5th worst Vegas odds at winning the Super Bowl after all. Philadelphia could struggle this year- and if they do, they could turn to Wentz earlier than expected and perhaps struggle some more.

It’s suddenly pretty easy to see the Browns getting a top-10 pick next year after all, maybe better. So who wins the deal?

Browns verdict- It’s likely a slam dunk win for the Browns- with one key caveat. If Carson Wentz is the real deal, then the Browns have screwed the pooch again. Even if he’s an average QB, the Browns might have been better off staying put and building around him. But if he struggles, the Browns will laugh all the way to the bank. In this draft, they should well get someone at 8 that they might have taken at 2- presumably they’d already ruled out Wentz- and the real payoff comes down the road. But if Wentz is good, that’s all anyone will care about no matter who Cleveland drafts with its extra picks.

Eagles verdict- The Eagles took a 10–6 playoff team from two years ago, stripped the team of its key players, coach, and system, and are starting over with this deal. They start at a deficit, and this only adds to it. They need to make a playoff run for this trade to be near even, and if they’re bad instead they could end up having overpaid by 50–100%. Assuming the Eagles are drafting Wentz, they’re choosing a player that at least two scouting teams (LA and Cleveland) have decided isn’t their franchise QB. That’s dangerous. Philly fans are really going to have to take the long view to come here. But hey, at least Philadelphia fans are already used to that with the 76ers and Phillies.

Final verdicts… for now

Tennessee- surest winner, terrific deal
Cleveland- probable winner as long as Wentz isn’t a star, big upside
Los Angeles- overpaid a bit, but if they love Goff, a potentially worthy gamble
Philadelphia- biggest gamble, biggest downside, upside too long-term

In the end, assuming these teams traded up for Goff and Wentz, all that will matter is if those guys are franchise-changing QBs. They’re clearly the best in the draft class for now, but that’s not necessarily meaningful. All draft classes are different; these guys need to be the best in the NFL not in their class.

The best in the class might be Luck (‘12), Newton (‘11), or Stafford (’09) but might also be Sam Bradford (‘10), Geno Smith (‘13), or Kevin Kolb (‘07). If they’re second best in the class it gets dicier- Dalton or Ryan if you’re lucky but EJ Manuel or Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow or Vince Young if you’re not.

It’s likely at least one of these trade-ups will be a bust. Both could be, but it’s more likely that one of the teams should at least get a long-term starting QB.

All we can do now is wait, root both of them on, and see how it all plays out! For now, click here for a little Carson Wentz: Fact or Fiction…

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