March Madness History Lessons - South

It’s March, and you’re looking for any advantage you can find to fill out the perfect bracket. Gone are the days when just knowing the magic word KenPom was enough to give you a leg up in your bracket pool.

Everyone knows about the Four Factors, and even ESPN articles and shows are digging into the numbers that matter now. The future is here, and there are a thousand advanced statistics right there at everyone’s fingertips.

So where can you find an edge now? How about by looking to the past…

This series of articles will look at each region through the lens of the past. History doesn’t always repeat itself- after all, it’s called March Madness for a reason- but it does give a lot of good predictable measures. Here are some historical factors worth considering, the methodology to the Madness:

• What’s the school’s history in March Madness? For teams with a lot of games, what’s their history with a similarly seeded team and/or in more recent games?
• What about the head coach? How has he done in the past? How is he as an underdog or as a favorite? How does he do with a week to prep vs only one day? How has he performed at various seeds?
• For teams from the mid majors and smaller conferences, how has their conference done in the past? Is there a history of similar teams or similar seeds from their conference pulling the upset you want to predict?
• How has a team performed at a particular seed compared to standard expectations for that seed? A school that has been 2–2 as a 12 seed is a lot better than one that’s gone 2–2 as a 3 seed.
• What were the preseason expectations for your team? As useless as those were in November, they can remove a lot of recency bias now.
• Are there any other hidden factors like location, time, etc that have had a impact historically?

Of course just because something has never or rarely happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen this time- but that’s not how stats work. If something has happened once in 20 times, you can use that as your proof the upset can happen, but let everyone else make the responsible likely 19 of 20 pick.

The truth is that we can learn a lot about the future by looking into the past.

When you’re done, read similar pieces about the West, East, and Midwest.

Let’s start with the South…

Kansas is the overall 1 seed. Kansas has been a 1 seed 11 times before, going 29–10. That includes the 2008 title with the miracle Mario Chalmers shot against Memphis you probably remember. However you might also remember 1 seed Kansas losing to 4 Michigan in 2013, 11 VCU in 2011, 9 Northern Iowa 2010, 9 UTEP in 1992, and 8 Rhode Island in 1998. Ouch!

As it turns out 29–10 isn’t so great for a 1 seed. In 11 appearances, that’s an average of under 3 wins per appearance. In other words, 1 seed Kansas doesn’t even quite average an Elite 8 berth.

Ah but some of those disappointments are from the Roy Williams era, right? What about Bill Self? Self’s Kansas teams (not necessarily as a 1) have been upset by 7 Wichita State, 10 Stanford, 13 Bradley, and 14 Bucknell in the last 11 years alone! During that span, Kansas has lost an astonishing 6 times to a 7+ seed, including 5 times on opening weekend.

Bill Self is 24–5 in odd-numbered rounds, where he has a whole week to prep the team. He’s just 13–11 in even rounds where he has just a day to prep them, a classic sign of an overrated coach when there’s such a drop-off there. And he’s especially bad in the Elite 8 at 2–5 in his career.

So watch out, Kansas backers. Watch out especially in round 2 or in the Elite 8. Yes Kansas is #1 in basically every poll, and yes they’re the #1 overall team here. But if you read everything above about Kansas and still wrote their name down six times on your bracket, you should probably just stop reading these articles right now and let’s both move on.

So if Kansas goes down early, might it be at the hands of 8 Colorado or 9 UConn? It’s always tough to pick any 8–9 game, but if the Huskies get through, note that UConn has won 6 of their last 7 games as a seed underdog. That of course includes beating 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds in their 2014 title run.

Maryland had a disappointing season, especially considering their status as a preseason top 5 overall team in the polls, but note that teams that underperform from high early expectations often “bounce back” with a fresh tournament start. Might Maryland make the most of this opportunity?

These Terps haven’t really been upset since a 3–6 loss to UCLA in 2000, but they’ve also lost in the 4–5 game in four of their last five such appearances. Coach Mark Turgeon is just 6–6 in his career and has never made the Sweet 16. Both coach and recent team have a pretty clear history- one win and out.

This 4 seed is the best ever for California in the modern era. They’ve been a 5 and a 6 before and met or exceeded expectations, but Cal as a team has only made two Sweet 16s ever and got crushed both times. A potential win in the Sweet 16 over Kansas would most definitely be the biggest in school history.

Cal coach Cuonzo Martin only has one tournament experience- but that was with 11 seed Tennessee who won their play-in and two more games before a heartbreaking 2 point loss to Michigan in the Sweet 16 in 2014. Cal and Cuonzo have a great shot to make Golden Bear alumni proud.

Oh and don’t get too excited about that Cal-Hawaii match-up. The game tips off at 11am local time for Cal… and 8am local time for Hawaii. That’s a tough hurdle for Hawaii to overcome, and it could be a sluggish game for all.

This is one of Miami’s best seeds ever too. Just making the tournament at all is a big feat in Coral Gables as this is only their 6th appearance in the last two decades. They haven’t had much success beyond that, losing twice early as a 2 seed to 10 Purdue in 1999 and to 3 Marquette in 2013. This year they have a bunch of close wins and a handful of big losses, not a great harbinger. And you probably remember coach Jim Larranaga’s Final Four run with George Mason, but he’s just 3–5 otherwise.

This Miami team is not built for much of a run. They weren’t even in the top 30 in preseason polls and look like a classic overachiever. Could they fall to 14 Buffalo? As a 12–14 seed, a MAC team has pulled 7 upsets in their last 18 tries, plus another six games within six points. That’s 13 of 18 times they’ve been right there for the upset chance. If you’re looking for a bold biggest upset pick, this is probably your best bet on the bracket.

The Arizona vs Wichita game might well be the key to the entire South region. The winner may be the best Final Four bet of any South team!

Arizona has mixed results as a middle seed, with a pair of 4–13 and 5–12 upsets but also a title-winning 4 seed effort in 1997. Coach Sean Miller has had much better luck. His teams had deep-ish runs with near misses as a 5 in 2011 and a 6 in 2013 with this Arizona team. He also had two close misses with Xavier against Ohio State in 2007 and Pittsburgh in 2009. As a 3–6 seed, Sean Miller teams are 10–4 and always in the mix.

Miller teams as a seed favorite are 14–1, the one loss to 2 Wisconsin in the Elite 8. His teams are only 3–7 as an underdog but have a long list of heartbreaking close losses to top 3 seeds Ohio State ‘07, Pittsburgh ‘09, UConn ‘11, Ohio State ‘13, and Wisconsin ‘15, losing by an average of 4 points in those games. Sean Miller is an incredible coach, and this is a strong underseeded Arizona team. They’ll either go far or break your heart trying.

They could also lose in the first round though, because Wichita State brings a pretty tough profile too including a preseason top 20 ranking. The Shockers are 8–7 not even counting their 1 seed year, blowing away seed expectations with more than double the expected wins. Coach Gregg Marshall has led teams to upset wins over 6, 2, 2, and 1 seeds. This year’s team lost a few games of senior Fred Van Vleet but is 24–5 otherwise, not so far off from last year’s 28–4 team that also lost in its conference championship before a Sweet 16 run. Could Van Vleet and Ron Baker lead one more deep run?

What’s the old saying… fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me? What iteration are we on with Villanova at this point? Jay Wright’s Nova has been 10–5 in five appearances as a top 3 seed, making the Sweet 16 just twice. They have way underperformed, with 1–8, 2–7, and 2–10 upset losses in the second round in their last three top such appearances. Too much history is against Nova at this point before they’re worth picking for a deep run again for now. But don’t expect them to lose to UNC Asheville- the Big South is effectively 1–24 in conference history.

The loss could come instead to Iowa or crosstown rival Temple. Iowa is 11–3 as a tournament favorite but has only 2 underdog wins, both as a 1 seed dog. They’ve only made the Sweet 16 once in 25 years and three times ever. Temple does have near Final Four runs as a 10 in 1991 and 11 in 2001, but these are not John Chaney’s Owls. Coach Fran Dunphy is a gross 3–15 in his history, so think twice before you pick him to win 2 more this year. If Nova does make the Sweet 16 this year, it might just be for lack of a real opponent.

So what then for the confused South, where the top three seeds all look quite overrated and ripe for an upset? Get ready for chaos. If you have a good read on Arizona or Wichita, feel free to take them all the way to the Final Four if you’d like. Cal or Iowa could well have their best result in school history. UConn could make another deep run. If you want to pick one big sleeper into your Final Four, this is your region to do it!

If you like this article, please comment below or share it with your friends- either now or after you use it to beat them in your pool. Be sure to check out the companion pieces on the West, East, and Midwest. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings.