March Madness History Lessons — West

It’s March, and you’re looking for any advantage you can find to fill out the perfect bracket. Gone are the days when just knowing the magic word KenPom was enough to give you a leg up in your bracket pool.

Everyone knows about the Four Factors, and even ESPN articles and shows are digging into the numbers that matter now. The future is here, and there are a thousand advanced statistics right there at everyone’s fingertips.

This series of articles will look at each region through the lens of the past. History doesn’t always repeat itself- after all, it’s called March Madness for a reason- but it does give a lot of good predictable measures. Be sure to check out this South article for the methodology to the Madness.

You should also read these similar pieces about the East and Midwest.

Let’s get started…

To say that Oregon does not have much March history is an understatement. This is Oregon’s first ever 1 seed, in fact only its third time ever above a 6. There’s some success when they do get there though. Coach Dana Altman led these Ducks to the Sweet 16 as a 12 in 2013, and he and Kyle Korver’s 12 Creighton also sprang the 12–5 upset over Florida in 2002.

This Oregon team will never be a seed underdog this year though, and that might be ok. Oregon is only 2–6 as an underdog but they’re 8–1 as the favorite, the one loss coming in the coin flip 8–9 game. Oregon has never before made a Final Four- could this be their chance?

There is some reason for concern though. Just 10 days ago Oregon was really on no one’s radar. They weren’t in the hunt for a 1 and they weren’t even on many short lists for a 2. Fast forward to a crazy win over Arizona and a blowout conference title win against Utah and suddenly they’re a 1? Feels fishy. And there’s another big warning sign too- Oregon is a 1 seed now but they weren’t even ranked in the preseason top 25. There are a heap of classic overachiever warning signs here. Oregon is probably not much different than the 2–5 seeds in this bracket. It’ll help Oregon to stay out West, but be sure you don’t give them too much credit just because of that 1 by their name.

But don’t look for Oregon to go down in the first weekend. You know about the roaring success of past 16 seeds, no doubt. What about St. Joe’s or Cincy? St. Joseph’s doesn’t have much success as a middling 7–11 seed, just one win in five tries. Cincinnati under Mick Cronin is 4–5 and does have an upset win against 3 Florida State in 2012 but there’s not much else to see here. Good luck picking that coin flip, but let the Ducks go through beyond that.

The 4–5 section is interesting as always. Let’s start with Duke, who will tip off the opening game of the tournament. Do you realize that this is only the third time in 30 years that Duke has been lower than a 3 seed? That’s an absurd stat and tells us that we don’t have a lot of history to go on here. Duke lost in the opening round as a 6 to VCU in 2007 and as an 8 to Eastern Michigan in 1996. And that’s really the extent of the underdog history for Duke.

You probably remember the VCU upset as well as Lehigh in 2012 and Mercer in 2014, but you remember those games because it’s the only three times in the last twenty years Duke has had a big upset to a team lower than a 7. Coach K is 26–4 in the first round and 22–4 in the second; put another way, Duke has made the Sweet 16 in 22 of the last 30 years, an incredible stat.

Coach K teams are also an amazing 41–10 in even numbered rounds, where teams have just a day to prepare for opponents. So don’t expect to get to Duke in the first two rounds, and don’t expect it in the Elite 8 either. It’ll either need to be against Oregon in the Sweet 16 or it’s another Final Four trip.

Then again this Duke team feels a lot more like a Kentucky team than a traditional Duke one. Last year’s title-winning roster was gutted; even star Grayson Allen was mostly an unknown before last March. Freshman Brandon Ingram has really come on of late, but the team has had a rash of injuries too.

When Duke loses, it tends to be to long, athletic teams like Louisville, Arizona, Villanova, and LSU. Baylor fits that description well- if they get there. Oregon and Oklahoma trend that way too. When does Duke lose? If it’s to Baylor, Oregon, or Oklahoma, know that you’re putting your eggs in Scott Drew’s, Dana Altman’s, or Lon Kruger’s basket against Coach K- good luck to you.

Baylor made just one tourney before 2008. Since then they’re 8–5 in five appearances but the record is a bit misleading. All but one of the wins was against a double digit seed by luck of the draw, and they’ve been dominated by 1, 1, and 2 seeds when they got far enough. And of course they lost to 14 Georgia State last year too. Coach Scott Drew makes no one comfortable.

This is Yale’s first tournament appearance since 1962, but the Ivy League is on fire with 4 wins in the past 6 years, all as 12–14 seeds. Baylor is a poorly coached team with a penchant for mistakes, and Yale is a smart careful squad. This is exactly what you look for in a classic 5–12 upset but for one thing: Yale captain Jack Montague has been expelled and will miss the tournament. But he missed the last 8 games too, and this Yale team is hungry after a heartbreaking tournament miss last year and should have a partisan crowd.

It’s tempting to get excited about Shaka Smart’s Longhorns, but it may be wise to temper expectations. Texas is just 4–6 this century as a 6–8 seed, around expectation with one big upset win over 3 Miss State in 2002. Ah but of course none of those teams had Shaka right? True, and Shaka was 7–5 with VCU… but just 2–4 outside of that magical Final Four run, including 1–3 the last three years right in this seed range. Texas is moving in the right direction but these aren’t really Shaka’s players yet either so you may not want to start drooling over potential matchups with Texas A&M or Oklahoma just yet. Plus Texas could even face a bit of an away crowd effect with OU and aTm fans pulling against them.

All of that may favor Northern Iowa. In the last six years the MVC is an impressive 11–8, and that includes monster upset wins over two 1s and two 2s, of course including the memorable Ali Farokhmanesh win over Kansas. Under Ben Jacobsen the Panthers are 3–3 in the tournament. This could be an excellent chance for a 4th win.

Your instinct may push you away from Texas A&M, but don’t be so quick. A&M is 6–6 in the last decade and has done well for its low seeds. Coach Billy Kennedy was 1–1 with 13 Murray State with a one point win and a two point loss. There’s not much history with the school or the coach, but there’s recent SEC history on their side. Kentucky of course is the class of the SEC of late, but the best non-UK SEC team each year in the Coach Cal era has combined to go 11–6, only underperforming their seed once. Top SEC teams are pretty reliable, and that could point to A&M winning a couple games this year.

This isn’t the darling VCU team you once knew. None of these players were around for the Final Four, Shaka is gone, and you read about the recent tournament failure above. As for Oregon State, they’ve never won a single game in the tournament. They have an uphill battle this year as they tip off at 9:30am local time, so that could be a real struggle that helps tilt this one in VCU’s favor. Don’t expect either team to give Oklahoma much trouble. Cal St Bakersfield is a nice story in their first tournament ever, but the WAC is 1–13 in the last decade with the one win coming from a 7 seed, so that’s also a no.

Oklahoma as a top 3 seed is 14–6 this century, slightly underperforming overall but no huge upsets on the docket. Though their bracket reads “West” you should not ignore that the first two games are right at home in Oklahoma City, so opening weekend should be safe passage.

You already know about Buddy Hield’s heroics, and anyone would love to see him play another six times. His fate will lie in the hands of longtime coach Lon Kruger. Kruger is 16–16 in the tourney with one Final Four appearance. His five teams have beaten 1, 2, and 2 seeds but also lost to 11, 12, and 14 seeds. Kruger’s teams had been eliminated in the first round four consecutive times before last year’s Sweet 16 run. As a favored seed, Kruger squads are just 12–8. Basically, don’t expect a coaching advantage here.

In the end, you have a pretty weak overall region, both from the teams at the top as well as those in the middle and bottom. Though it’s boring, the top four seeds Oregon, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Duke all look like the best bets to make it to the Sweet 16, but it’s anyone’s guess from there. Oregon has the seed and the crowd but no history. Duke has the coach and the talent but no depth. Oklahoma has Buddy but no coach. And A&M, well they’re in the SEC at least. One of these four teams will be in the Final Four. Good luck living with whatever weakness you choose.

If you like this article, please comment below or share it with your friends- either now or after you use it to beat them in your pool. Be sure to check out the companion pieces on the South, East, and Midwest. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings.