“Every Game Matters” — Predicting the 2018 Big 12 Football Season
Yesterday, I analyzed the 2018 SEC Football Season. With conference media days continuing, it’s time to move on to the Big 12. With the departures of Oklahoma Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma State University three-year starting quarterback Mason Rudolph, and Texas Christian University quarterback Kenny Hill, it’s easy to see why some are dismissing the Big 12 in 2018. However, while the conference is certainly undergoing a change, I don’t think that it’ll mean the Big 12 will be any less potent in 2018. Unlike all other Power Five Conferences, the Big 12 is the only conference to return all of its head coaches in 2018. This continuity should mean big things, as 2018 should prove to be a pivotal year for Texas Head Coach Tom Herman and Kansas State Head Coach Bill Snyder. While Herman is just beginning his career in Austin, the Longhorns must compete for a Big 12 title in 2018. Otherwise, Texas’ fan base may start calling for (another) head coaching change. In Manhattan, 2018 may be the last time Snyder leads the Wildcats. Already, Snyder has had to deal with a troubling offseason, following the surprising death of his grandson and on-going struggle with cancer. These storylines, along with the impending on-field drama, should make the Big 12 the most interesting conference this season. Thus, here are your 2018 Big 12 Conference predictions:
Big 12:
(1) Oklahoma:
Many are high on the Sooners after the 2017 Season that saw them win the Big 12 and play in the College Football Playoff. Even with the losses of Mayfield and starting left tackle Orland Brown, Jr., the Sooners should be primed for another big season with the return of running back Rodney Anderson and wide receiver Marquise Brown. To replace Mayfield, the Sooners will likely turn to Kyler Murray, who has (still) yet to be named the Sooners’ starting quarterback. No matter how Murray performs on the field, you’ll likely hear his name mentioned many times this season, after having been selected ninth overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. Already, Murray’s transition has suffered some setbacks, after having a less than impressive showing during Oklahoma’s spring game. However, his performance in the spring game shouldn’t be considered too representative of his abilities, given that it was sandwiched between his playing two baseball games. Still, though, his struggles should worry Sooners’ fans. Fortunately, even though I’m expecting the Big 12 to be a tight race in 2018, the Sooners’ schedule provides them with an edge over runner-ups Texas and West Virginia. And, while Murray may struggle, he should be able to do just enough — when combined with the Sooners’ other offensive weapons — to put the Sooners in winnable situations. While it’s very possible that the Sooners will finish Big 12 play with a loss to West Virginia in Morgantown, I think they’ll rebound to recapture the Big 12 Championship in Arlington a few days later.
(2) Texas:
While it’s not quite a “make-or-break season” for Texas Head Coach Tom Herman, the Longhorns must show improvement in 2018. And, it’s very possible that the trajectory of their season is dependent on their season opener against Maryland, who they lost to in 2017 — in Austin. Even with an opening season loss though, the Longhorns should benefit from playing TCU, West Virginia, and Iowa State (all) at home. While the Longhorns’ schedule provides some help, Herman will need to find an answer at quarterback in 2018 for the Longhorns’ to really breakthrough. So far, neither Sam Ehlinger nor Shane Buechele have been able to do enough to win the starting job, resulting in some Longhorn fans debating whether the Longhorns would be better off starting Ehlinger — the better runner — or Buechele — the better passer. This lack of a definitive starter could prove damning, considering what should be a very talented receiving corps anchored by Collin Johnson. On defense, the Longhorns will certainly miss Malik Jefferson and Poona Ford. However, it’s very possible that the Longhorns managed to string together enough wins to claw their way into the Big 12 Championship Game, where they’d be basically playing a “home game” in Arlington.
(3) West Virginia:
The uncertainty of the Big 12 has resulted in many picking the Mountaineers to win the conference — and for good reason. The returning combination of starting quarterback Will Grier and possibly the best receiving corps in the country — headlined by converted quarterback David Sills V — should place the Mountaineers near the top of the Big 12. Furthermore, the Mountaineers will benefit from facing Oklahoma at home. However, the Mountaineers road games against Iowa State, Texas, and Oklahoma State make it hard for me to pick them to win the Big 12, especially with them having to significantly improve their defense. In that regard, former USC player Kenny Bigelow’s decision to transfer to West Virginia as a graduate transfer may be helpful. However, one player alone isn’t enough to remake an entire defense or make me feel confident enough to pick West Virginia — especially in the “pass happy” Big 12. Still, though, look for Grier to be a possible Heisman Trophy candidate.
(4) Texas Christian University (“TCU”):
If there’s one thing Horned Frogs Head Coach Gary Patterson loves, it’s when his team enters the season under the radar. Even with coming off an eleven-win season, the Horned Frogs aren’t expected to do much in 2018. However, the Horned Frogs’ defense should make them a challenge for anyone they face, and will be anchored by preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Ben Banogu. Furthermore, the addition of Northern Illinois University graduate transfer linebacker Jawuan Johnson should further bolster their defense. And, even with new starting quarterback Shawn Robinson being inexperienced, he should be assisted in his transition by the return of running backs Darius Anderson and Sewo Oloniula and wide receivers Jalen Reagor and KaVontae Turpin. So, any team facing the Horned Frogs will have their hands full.
(5) Kansas State University:
There’s a very real chance that 2018 is Bill Snyder’s last coaching the Wildcats. Given how much he’s done for the program, it would be a shame for Snyder to finish his hall of fame career on an average note. On the sidelines, Snyder will have to adjust to the loss of longtime Offensive Coordinator Dana Dimel, who left to take the head coaching job at UTEP. In leaving Manhattan, Dimel made sure to bring along his son, Wildcats’ fullback Winston Dimel. Even with running back Alex Barnes being a “load,” the loss of Dimel(s) will impact his production. The bigger question, though, is “who the Wildcats’ starting quarterback will be?” In 2017, Skylar Thompson and Alex Delton both saw meaningful snaps. Heading into fall camp, Snyder has refrained from naming a starter. Regardless of who the starting quarterback is though, the Wildcats have a tough schedule, playing road games against West Virginia, Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa State. And, with a non-conference game scheduled against Mississippi State, the Wildcats’ fan base may just have to be “satisfied” with them being bowl eligible in 2018.
(6) Iowa State University:
2017 was a breakthrough year for Cyclones Head Coach Matt Campbell’s team, which led to Campbell signing a six-year extension to remain in Ames. And, while the Cyclones managed to pull off an upset victory over Oklahoma — in Norman, they finished the 2017 Season only slightly above “.500” in conference play, showing that they’re still a step behind the Big 12’s top teams. Fortunately, starting quarterback Kyle Kempt’s being granted a sixth year of eligibility should help the Cyclones build off their magical 2017. Kempt and starting running back David Montgomery should give defensive coordinators fits all season, and, while it’s very possible that the Cyclones defeat the Sooners — again — in Ames to open Big 12 play, the Cyclones rest of season schedule makes it difficult for me to imagine them performing more than slightly above average (again). The Cyclones can expect tough road games against TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas. However, don’t sleep on Campbell’s team, as he looks to continue to build something special in Ames.
(7) Oklahoma State University:
The 2018 Offseason almost saw Cowboys’ Head Coach Mike Gundy leave Stillwater, as Tennessee made a serious inquiry into his services. Fortunately, Gundy decided to stay in Stillwater, and has already begun to make his “trademark headlines” by announcing at Big 12 Media Day that former walk-on Taylor Cornelius is the Cowboys’ “guy” at quarterback. While the arrival of former Hawaii starting quarterback Dru Brown onto campus might change things, the Cowboys will struggle this season, as they adjust to life in a post-Mason Rudolph world. Scheduling wise, the Cowboys have a pretty fair schedule — albeit with them having a road game scheduled against Oklahoma. However, the Cowboys’ quarterback situation will likely prevent them from being a serious player in the Big 12 this season. Still, Gundy’s team could be poised to play “spoiler” all season long in the Big 12.
(8) Texas Tech University:
In a complete reversal of recent fortunes, the Red Raiders boast three preseason all-Big 12 defenders (Dakota Allen, Jah’Shawn Johnson, and Justus Parker). And, if the Red Raiders are going to — finally — compete in the Big 12, Red Raiders’ Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury will need to rely on his “better defense.” However, even with a favorable schedule, it’s hard to imagine anything more than average for Kingsbury’s team. After back-to-back losing seasons, 2018 will likely prove crucial to Kingsbury’s future coaching the Red Raiders. While the Red Raiders could be spurned into action behind a resurgent defense, it’s hard for me to imagine them seriously competing against the Big 12’s top teams. Even against the Big 12’s mid-level teams, the Red Raiders are still essentially playing “toss up” games, and a loss at Baylor to end the season would likely mean the end of the Kingsbury-era. Does Texas Tech Athletic Director Kirby Hocutt still have Mike Leach’s phone number?
(9) Baylor University:
The 2018 Season can’t come fast enough for Bears’ fans, after 2017 saw them win only one (1) game. While it’s still too soon to think that the Bears will return to Big 12 dominance in 2018, I think they’ll return to beating the teams that they “should” beat. In fact, it’s very possible that the Bears start out the 2018 Season “4–0.” However, once they reach Big 12 play, Matt Rhule’s team will struggle. Fortunately, the combination of starting quarterback Charlie Brewer and wide receivers Denzel Mims and Tennessee transfer Jalen Hurd should at least make the Bears competitive in 2018. And, it’s very possible that the Bears are able to return to bowl eligibility in 2019.
(10) University of Kansas:
Jayhawks Head Coach David Beaty will be under the microscope this season, after Kansas Athletic Director Sheahon Zenger was fired during the offseason and replaced with former College Football Playoff Chairman Jeff Long. In replacing Zenger, Kansas Chancellor Douglas Girod appears to be signaling a desire to remake the program’s recent (abhorrent) progress, as the Jayhawks have only won three (3) games the past three season and went winless in Big 12 play in 2017. Beaty’s efforts will not be helped by the Jayhawks playing road games against West Virginia and Oklahoma. And, while the Jayhawks will likely have a decent defense in 2018, it’s hard to image their offense showing significant improvement, after finishing third-to-last among Power Five teams in scoring in 2017. Thus, it may be time for Beaty to begin dusting off his resume.
2018 Big 12 Conference Champion: Oklahoma University
While it will very likely be a three-way race all season long, I expect the Sooners to be able to secure “a spot” in the Big 12 Championship Game. Opposing them will likely be West Virginia or Texas. Both teams pose different challenges for the Sooners. The Mountaineers will have a very high-powered offense, but the Longhorns should have a stellar defense, following an offseason that saw them sign the nation’s third-ranked recruiting class and many of the top defensive backs in the state of Texas. However, the Sooners’ balance should provide them with the edge they need to defeat the Mountaineers or Longhorns. Thus, it’s very likely that Lincoln’s Riley’s team is able to win back-to-back Big 12 Championships, and return to the College Football Playoff.
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