2018 NFL Playoff Predictions
I’m back, unfortunately.
Not too long ago, I was laying in bed with what I can only assume to be Seasonal Affective Disorder (or, as we Niners fans like to call it, “the playoffs”) when it hit me — I only had a couple days left to put together my NFL playoff predictions for this year. It also hit me that caffeine withdrawals were kicking in, and that a little bit of sunlight is generally healthy, so I walked down to Starbucks to write this.
Of course, I didn’t actually write it then, because doing things more than a few hours before the deadline is not only above my pay grade but completely out of character. Instead, I downloaded Twitter again and made some dumb comments on Economist articles before re-evaluating my life. Shameless plug. Follow me.
Last year, I made some predictions that didn’t turn out so well, but we all learned some valuable lessons in 2017. I learned not to jinx the Chiefs. Here’s how I see everything playing out.
Wild Card Round
Titans at Chiefs
Fun fact: The Titans are 9–0 this year when running back Derrick Henry gets 10 touches, and 0–7 when he doesn’t. Correlation doesn’t equal causation as illustrated by my favorite Bono joke, but when Tennessee’s running game gets going, Henry is one of the best closers in the game. But they’re not a come-from-behind team. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are the first team I’ve ever seen go from Super Bowl favorites to the worst team in the league and back to Super Bowl contenders all in one season. At times, they’ve looked like an offensive juggernaut; at others, they’ve looked like an offensive joke to everyone who supports them. Still, they’re a much better team, and they have the momentum going into this one.
Chiefs 34, Titans 10
Falcons at Rams
This was the hardest Wild Card matchup to choose. It’s a pretty classic case of experience versus talent. On one hand, the Falcons are extremely underrated for reigning NFC champions, and their offense is finally starting to gel under first year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. On the other hand…the Rams are very good at football. In theory, this should be a shootout, with the top scoring offense on 2016 taking on the top scoring offense of 2017. Don’t sleep on Falcons’ defensive studs such as Adrian Clayborn and Keanu Neal. This game, in my opinion, is a toss-up. Don’t be surprised if it comes down to the Ram’s excellent special teams.
Rams 34, Falcons 28 (OT)
Bills at Jaguars
By some combination of the grace of God and the Ravens having the worst defensive meltdown in…almost eleven months, the Bills ended the longest playoff drought in American professional sports after 17 years. No fanbase deserves it more. The thing is, Buffalo is still a profoundly mediocre football team. FiveThirtyEight points out that this team is worse than most Bills teams this century in just about every metric, regardless of their record. Their -57 point differential is the fifth worst by a playoff team in the Super Bowl era. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have a historic defense and an extremely talented group of young stars on offense. In theory, Buffalo can’t win a game if they don’t score any points.
In practice, they’re playing against Blake Bortles.
Bills 13, Jaguars 9
Panthers at Saints
Division matchups in the playoffs are always a treat, even if the Saints beat the Panthers pretty convincingly in both of their meetings this year. Many people argue that beating the same team three times in a season is nearly impossible — a fact easily disproven by history. Yet it’s no secret that Cam Newton can turn it on in the playoffs. The team will live or die by his performance, and the Saints’ Marshon Lattimore-led defense has had his number this year. During their last Super Bowl run, Carolina was considered the team of young hotshots, but the tables have turned as the up-and-coming Saints rely heavily on rookies like Lattimore and Alvin Kamara. I expect them to go on a playoff run not unlike the 2015 Panthers, competing with the cream of the crop in the NFC and possibly even the AFC champs. But don’t forget about Carolina.
Saints 31, Panthers 29
Divisional Round
Saints at Eagles
If you had told Philly fans that the top-seeded Eagles would hold the Cowboys to just 6 points in their final regular season game, they probably would have rejoiced. Reality is a bit more grim. Whoever winds up playing the Eagles will wind up getting a late Christmas present this year. Philadelphia was arguably the favorite to win it all until MVP candidate Carson Wentz went down with an unfortunate knee injury, but this team is not at all the same with Nick Foles and/or Nate Sudfeld. I’m calling at least two defensive touchdowns for a stingy New Orleans team. Expect the Saints to come marching in.
Saints 41, Eagles 8
Bills at Patriots
So, here’s the thing. The Patriots are probably the best team in football. They’re also known for excelling in the face of adversity, of which there is no shortage right now. The Bills, as I mentioned before, are not a particularly good football team. There’s really no way I can logically justify this prediction. My rationale for this game hinges on two things: the Bills being even more used to cold weather than New England, and the Patriots dropping a playoff game to a vastly inferior division rival once a decade. If the Bills pull this one out, don’t be surprised if Andy Dalton’s charity hits seven figures.
Bills 23, Patriots 21
Chiefs at Steelers
I’d like to say I’m convinced that the Steelers are the better football team. But the truth is that, deep down, I think I jinxed the Chiefs last year and I don’t want to do it again. Not much has changed since then except for the emergence of respective rookies Kareem Hunt, who led the NFL in rushing, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who recovered his stolen bike a couple months ago. The last time these teams met in the playoffs, the Killer Bs outplayed Killatrav, and they’ve only added to their ranks. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting different results. If Eric Berry were healthy, this game might be different, but as it stands, I try not to be an insane person.
Steelers 18, Chiefs 16
Rams at Vikings
The Vikings’ defense is so good, they make Minnesota far and away the best team in the NFC even with Case Keenum at quarterback. Analysts will hype this game up as the NFL’s best offense against its best defense, but as the adage goes, the best defense is a good offense, which means it’s actually the Rams who have the best defense, and…I’m just as lost as you are. Look for dental-equipment-salesman-turned-football-extraordinaire Adam Thielen to tear up the Rams’ secondary as the pressure proves too much for Sean McVay’s upstart squad.
Vikings 24, Rams 21
Championship Round
🅱ills at Steelers
I can’t believe I have the 🅱uffalo 🅱ills in the AFC Championship either. The Steelers are talented, but they’re also known for playing down to their competition. The 🅱ills will be coming off an emotional victory against the Patriots. Remember the Jets upset I mentioned earlier? Like most teams coming off an emotional win, they didn’t fare so well in the next round. The playoff Steelers are on a different plane than the regular season Steelers. The Killer 🅱s should dominate as the clock strikes midnight on the 🅱ills’ Cinderella story. This AFC Championship will be a snoozer.
Steelers 31, 🅱ills 6
Saints at Vikings
Remember Bountygate? Last time these two teams played in the NFC Championship, things got ugly. This time around is a little different — even if Gregg Williams were still on the Saints’ staff, he might be doing the Vikings a favor by knocking Case Keenum out of the game depending on who you ask. These are two of the most well-rounded teams in football, and this game will be a treat in terms of individual matchups: Thielen vs. Lattimore, Drew Brees vs. Xavier Rhodes, Harrison Smith vs. the Pro Bowl selection committee, and so on. The Saints don’t have any holes on offense. Unfortunately for them, the Vikings don’t have any holes anywhere, and it showed in their Week 1 match. This game may come down to Latavius Murray against the Saints’ front seven. My money is on the Vikings running back, but just barely.
Vikings 33, Saints 30
Super Bowl LII
Vikings vs. Steelers
This year’s championship will come down to the team famous for winning Super Bowls in the 1970s and the team famous for…losing Super Bowls in the 1970s. Fran Tarkenton should be proud of this year’s squad as they look to avenge his infamous streak. The Steelers’ blueprint isn’t all that different than that of the Saints. If anything, their secondary is more suspect. Then again, Mike Tomlin’s team has more experience than just about anyone else in the playoffs, and their quarterback is known for his Super Bowl heroics. The Vikings’ defense is stout, but make no mistake: this will be a shootout. Roethlisberger will have to play perfect football to top the Minnesota secondary. I don’t think he does.
Vikings 31, Steelers 27
