DIGITAL TRENDSPOTTING 2019:1D — Social Context: The Politics and its Consequences

After an introduction around the entire trendspotting 2019, in previous sections we have seen how the world on the whole has been heading towards a constantly better world for us humans. Nevertheless, a number of worries have been discernible during this year, where a great deal has been politics — perhaps especially in Asia and America, but to a certain extent also EMEA, with consequences for both conflicts and the environment.

An Asia that eventually takes over

Although it does not look like it if you look at column meters and billions of impressions in traditional media, but, for those who look deeper, there is no doubt 2018 acts as a kind of crescendo about how Asia is taking over the world. Not least as illustrated by Jinping’s actions, who manages to get through a constitutional change that removes the time limit for the presidency, and makes him “president of life”.

As a democratic counterbalance, we find an India that while the western media “worries” about hindu focus at the same time decriminalizes homosexuality and lifts the ban on visits for women to the country’s most sacred temple. To this can be added a South and North Korea for the first time since the war at least meeting and initiating communication. But despite the fact that Asia de facto begins to take on an increasingly dominant part in the whole world economy, politics, power and development (more on this later), it is medially the “old” powers in the west, and the clown-like fight between Trump (and partly, Putin), which this year also catches the media’s interest offline and people’s interest online.

An America that needs sedatives

Neither in the world in general, nor even in Asian countries, in particular, the searches on Jinping (the red line) and the other leaders are even close to the interest that Trumps captures all (blue line).

First, economically, he started trading war against China for up to $ 500 billion, which Jinping calls “the largest trade war in world history”, which will not only hit China but infect the rest of Asia and where Jinping promised to respond with fierce retaliation to the Americans themselves.

People who understand things see the trade war as the peak of icebergs, and that it is a symptom of what is to come in the economic, military and digital “world war” that is going on. Still Trump turns completely labil into a trade war against former friends in NAFTA and the EU with tariffs of 10–25% — which not unlikely spurred the world’s largest trade agreement between the old economies of Japan and Europe for an amount of 1/3 of the world economy.

But it doesn’t end there. Trump terminates Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran and imposes sanctions. And in the country where the minority blacks went from the balcony in Memphis to the balcony in the White house in 40 years, we now have a president who jumps off the UN Human Rights Council, jumps off UNESCO, the Education, Science, Communication and Culture body of UN. All again leaving open for China and Russia to advance their positions (with large contributions and most posts — e.g. used for heavy opposition to freedom of press and speech).

He is trying to get the G8 back in by getting back Russia one second, and threatening the next second to end Reagan’s and Gorbachev’s nuclear weapons disarmament agreement. He causes the Minister of Defense to resign after his betrayal of the Kurds in Iraq, he sees to it that the state apparatus is shut down in order to build a totally irrational and irrelevant wall. He is increasingly employed by criminal investigations and responds by dismissing the Minister of Justice, and when the Federal Reserve conducts an interest policy that makes it harder for him to be re-elected, he threatens to dismiss even that manager.

Somehow one has to calm the nerves in the rest of America. To the north, it is done by Canada following 10 of US states and legalizing national marijuana beating Trump to becoming the 2nd country in the world. Further south, we get a reassuring message that for the first time in 60 years, we get a president who is not called Castro, while Brazil’s former president is arrested for corruption. A “dynamic” American year so to speak :-O

An increasingly weak EMEA

On the other side of the globe, we’re on one hand increasingly aware of how to not kill our own bodies, where UK, Ireland, Portugal and Norway now joined the 26 countries who put tax on sugar and other unhealthy products. On the other hand we don’t see a decreasing respect tor not killing other peoples bodies. First by Putin becoming president for the fourth time in a row, celebrating by shouting loud about Poseidon and Avangard, taking charge in Syria, annexing ships from Ukraine and killing Skripal and his daughter Julia in Salisbury. Saudi Arabia, who also comes last in this years freedom of thought report, is following and murdering Washington Post’s journalist Khashoggi at the Embassy in Turkey, without any reaction from either Trump or any other great power.

And the political shakiness goes on with the 3M security in the middle, starting with everyone’s Merkel, resigns, the English May approaching the date of Brexit without EU agreement, and the one who set the hope to Macron has with a bunch of yellow vests in his mind at least some reason to think again.

The whole ship points in exactly the same direction, an increasingly swaying state among the old economies of the West, and an increasingly strong state among the new economies of the East — and this just when the world needs swaying the very least. Or as our friend Harari puts it:

“Liberalism is losing credibility exactly when the twin revolutions of information technology and biotechnology confront us with the biggest challenges our species has ever encountered”.

Conflicts that both decrease and increase

In the case of more hands-on conflicts with weapons in hand, at least 70 people were killed in our worst crisis in modern time, and hundreds were injured in a chemical attack by Bashar in Ghouta — 6 days later, the US, UK and France bombed a Syrian military base in response. However, this was one of very few hands-on efforts from the West, after which the friends of Russia and Iran make use of the West’s passivity to backup Bashar enough to kill not only terrorism but also all rebellion in Syria.

As the top of all, the United States abandons its friends peshmergas who have the only brave ones who managed to knock out ISIS in Iraq, which Trump thanks for then removing military and leaving peshmergas for Erdogan to attack (while Trump himself is busy sending military to guard the border with civilian people seeking protection through Mexico: — /). Doing the same thing in Afghanistan will be Trump’s next gift to Putin, who now is left to move freely among both allied Talibans in Afghanistan and the murderer Bashar in Syria.

And while the war in Syria nevertheless finally begins to move towards its end, the situation in Yemen gets worse, where 2/3 of the country’s 27 million inhabitants depend on aid, 80,000 children (yes, no typos) have died famine and 14 million people are at risk of doing so if everything continues.

In the middle of it all we saw what might the beginning of a possible peace agreement for Yemen in Sweden in December, and we can rejoice that the 20-year war between Eritrea and Ethiopia is finally over. The number of terrorist acts has also been reduced and the number of deaths in war has decreased for the fourth consecutive year (90,000 in 2018 compared to 130,000 in 2014). Finally, we are pleased that we received among the more well-deserved prize winners the Nobel Peace Prize in the form of Nadia Murad and Mukwege.

At the same time: the well respected professor Rosling reminds us that while the media is filled with news about terrorism, air accidents, murders and wars, it can be good to remember that 60,000 die every year because of alcohol while 70,000 people die from drug overdoses only in the United States, and that 330,000 children die in diarrhea each year in the world: — / The squeaky wheel gets the grease. With the medial attention directed to things that account for a thousandth of mortality in the world, this is where the resources go — even though we could have saved 100 times more children from dying in other ways: — /

An environment at the beginning of the end?

And there we have what the politics has has resulted in for the economy and conflicts between us people during the year. But neither does nature escape this year, where Trump leaves the global climate agreement. He removes the emission requirements for the coal industry, as well as the protection of America’s vast areas of wetlands that Obama introduced.

And he does it for a time when the environment is more threatened than ever, where over 90% of all plastic is not recycled, and where the UN’s environmental agency warns us that we will now not hold the target of “only” 1.5% warming, and everything indicates that our children’s globe will not survive a likely doubling (3.3%) if we do not undergo a dramatic change.

CCPI also shows that the one who contributes the best so far is, again, my one homeland Sweden (although not even Sweden reaches the goal of the Paris agreement, and lives as if you have 4.2 pcs. Globe :-/). In addition to two cool exceptions (where surprisingly Morocco is one), we find only other Europeans in the top 20 — one of the few things the Europeans thankfully are as good at as winning the World Cup and other games. Nevertheless, it is probably the wonderful democracy India, who climbed 3 positions and through its scope probably made the positive impact on the climate in the world this year.

At the same time we find the world’s worst environmental records in Saudi Arabia and, now, the United States (who now outrun their friend Iran, now third, as the second worst villain in the field — even though US together with EU is the one with most decreased CO2 the last decades where instead China has the by far highest increase). This is despite the fact that the relationship ecology and economics just has been shown in a report on how climate change will cost 10% of GDP for the US up to the turn of the century.

Perfect timing to leave the global climate agreement —and smart guy they voted for in that homeland of mine. Not :-O

More about the scientific development in the next section :)

• Published Sections So Far: Foreword, Section 1A, Section 1B, Section 1C, Section 1D, Section 1E, Section 1F
• Digital Trendspotting 2019: As an inverted Christmas calendar, the trendspotting will be delivered as goodies for several days at the dawn of the new year. It will be delivered both on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/onlinestrategy/), on Medium (https://medium.com/@blockchainboss), and some video abstracts in our blockchain journey at Insta (https://www.instagram.com/rufus.lidman.blockchainjourney/).
• Digital contact: As usual, I love commenting and hot debate, so for anyone who wants to discuss, is hunting for key note speeches, or wants to be part of backing up the world’s coolest digital venture, inbox me here, call on WA +46733 90 18 80, or email at rufus.lidman@aiar.com ;)