Not all 3’s are Created Equally
In stark contrast to the slower, defensive grinder of a game we expect from Loyola-Chicago and Michigan, the Kansas vs. Villanova matchup should display a number of offensive feats as two of the best offenses in college basketball square off. Spoiler alert: both teams love to shoot the three — and both are really good at it.
Villanova is the highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 86.6 points per game. Despite ranking 123rd in possessions per game (they’re not the fastest team out there), they’re easily the most efficient: Villanova dominates the NCAA here, averaging 1.198 points per possession. Out of 351 Division I teams, they rank #2 in average made FG per game (30.4), #6 in overall shooting (49.9%), #7 in assist to turnover ratio (1.555 to 1), and #3 in made 3 PT FG per game (11.5). They have six players averaging double-figure scoring.
That said, Kansas isn’t far behind Villanova — averaging 81.4 points per game (#23 in NCAA), 16.9 assists per game (#11 in NCAA), 40.3% 3-point shooting (#9 in NCAA), and 30 field goals made per game (#6 in NCAA). They average 10 made 3-pointers per game (#16 in NCAA) and attempt 25 3-pointers per game (#52 in NCAA). Kansas has five players averaging double-figure scoring.
Now that that’s out of the way, how much do Villanova and Kansas like to shoot the three? For starters, Villanova has attempted 1,091 three pointers on the season and made 436 of them (40%), and are only 6 shy of the NCAA single season record for made three-pointers set by the Virginia Military Institute back in 2007. Villanova ranks ninth in the NCAA with an average of 28.7 three-point attempts per game. Kansas ranks 51st at 25.1 three-point attempts per game. Villanova relies on the three-pointer a little more, with a three-point rate of 47.1% (14th highest in the NCAA) with Kansas checking in at 41.4% (79th highest).
When we switch from attempts to made three-pointers, the picture shifts a bit: Kansas ranks 9th in the NCAA by shooting 40.3% from three-point range, while Villanova ranks 15th by shooting exactly 40% from three-point range. Villanova spreads the wealth slightly more than Kansas, with five different players having attempted at least 136 3-pointers on the season, while Kansas has four such players.
Those are impressive numbers, but they don’t tell the whole story. How do these teams distribute their shots and how they are assisted? Each factor becomes increasingly challenging for their opponent to defend.
Range
We calculated the distance for every two- and three-point attempt. Rounding to the nearest inch, we plotted the density for each team. Note: The three point line is currently lives at 249 inches.
They are both bimodal in nature — no surprise there. But what is interesting is that Kansas spends much less time in the middle compared to Villanova.
Villanova does more work in the middle; however, they also extend a bit more. From three-point range, Villanova shoots on average five more inches farther from the rim compared to Kansas. This is might sound small, but this is the difference between a hand blocking the ball or getting off a clean shot and it also spreads the floor more. It’s tougher to defend.
Balanced Assisting
Knowing that these teams have slightly different paths to create points, especially the three, we wanted to look at each team’s balance within shot type as well as assists. The concept being, the more balanced a team is at a particular metric ,the harder they are to defend.
We wanted to look at the ratios of number of assists and attempts relative to the number of times a player gets the rock.
KANSAS. Devonte` Graham assists on 25% of the team’s field goals. The Jayhawks aren’t terribly balanced in the assist department (though it also speaks to the caliber of player Graham happens to be). This makes sense as the “bigs” will crash the glass more, less assisting — but don’t forget about those three balls. As noted above, Kansas ranks 9th in the NCAA by shooting 40.3% from 3 point range. Last note — Kansas relies less on the three (relative to Villanova) so their overall three-point distribution rests on the shoulders of just three players (Graham, Newman, and Vick)
VILLANOVA. A different story here, and a more balanced one. The Wildcats have five players with assists-to-team field goal ratios above 6% and five players contributing at least 14% of the team’s three point makes. This is tough to defend: are you going to cut off the lane or defend the shot?
No matter which way you slice it, this will be an epic match up. Villanova is on the verge of making NCAA history as they pursue the single season record for made three-pointers. Kansas is an iconic program that features some of the best guard play in the country. Both fan bases are prominently represented here in San Antonio. Nothing against the Final, but this semifinal certainly has a “championship” feel to it. The basketball is going to be a hot potato tonight, and the pace and shot selection will resemble a video game. Can’t wait!
